So if bitcoin drops back to $1k-$2k levels, do you honestly see it ever going back to $20k and beyond? I mean this bubble is definitely different then 2013. Everyone knows what bitcoin is now, 2013 was no where near the mania that we saw in 2017. A lot more people got burnt this time around, people were mortgaging their houses for crying out loud.
A lot of people are saying $100k bitcoin, but who the hell is going to spend $100k per Bitcoin? The average Joe does not have that type of money. The market is full of speculators, not adopters.
Bitcoin has had one heck of a rise going from fractions of a cent to $20k in less then a decade. People have this thought that it will always go higher, but how many people who have that kind of money to push bitcoin beyond $20k are going to do it?
I have a hard time seeing a more hyped market then what we saw in 2017. This isn't the end for cryptos, but we may never see such a high priced bitcoin ever again. Hopefully I'm wrong, time will tell.
And another thing people don't realize is that a big part of the reason bitcoin and other crypto prices got so high was simply because of manipulation.
And bitcoin was at 20 billion in volume in December, now it's just above 6 billion. Do people honestly believe that we are going back to $20k with such low volume? Thats a lot of money being traded. To get to $50k and $100k, imagine the type of volume needed? A lot, there's not enough interest anymore to sustain these types of prices.
Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 20. (Read 26015 times)
Thanks for that.
OP, still very much interested in what you have to share. I made a killing from some of what you have shared thus far.
OP, still very much interested in what you have to share. I made a killing from some of what you have shared thus far.
Still expecting the bear market to resume with an initial target of 4257 (Bitfinex), which would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.
Will reassess parameters if 11788 is taken out to the upside.
Second short position ordered as follows:
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 11253
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 4.75%
REWARD: 62%
Original short position, still active:
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%
Elliott Wave is totally nonsense!
There isn't something else in the trading community what is viewed as critical as this hoky poky wave prediction crap.
I don't any EW trader who is successful over the long run or always adjusting his wave count when got proved wrong again and again.
Focus on TA and forget about market or chart predictions in general.
Just react to what is happening in the charts and try to make some profits or just hodl for years!
There isn't something else in the trading community what is viewed as critical as this hoky poky wave prediction crap.
I don't any EW trader who is successful over the long run or always adjusting his wave count when got proved wrong again and again.
Focus on TA and forget about market or chart predictions in general.
Just react to what is happening in the charts and try to make some profits or just hodl for years!
Thanks for that.
OP, still very much interested in what you have to share. I made a killing from some of what you have shared thus far.
Just react to what is happening in the charts and try to make some profits or just hodl for years!
Now that is some sage advice. I shall now hodl for whenlambo.
Elliott Wave is totally nonsense!
There isn't something else in the trading community what is viewed as critical as this hoky poky wave prediction crap.
I don't any EW trader who is successful over the long run or always adjusting his wave count when got proved wrong again and again.
Focus on TA and forget about market or chart predictions in general.
Just react to what is happening in the charts and try to make some profits or just hodl for years!
There isn't something else in the trading community what is viewed as critical as this hoky poky wave prediction crap.
I don't any EW trader who is successful over the long run or always adjusting his wave count when got proved wrong again and again.
Focus on TA and forget about market or chart predictions in general.
Just react to what is happening in the charts and try to make some profits or just hodl for years!
This guy has been wrong multiple times. Be careful of what he says!
Exactly. This guy's name is Steve Puri and he's been wrong every time in the past.
Check out this:
http://stevepuri.blogspot.com/2010/07/s-speculative-elliott-wave-projection.html
This is all very interesting indeed..
This guy has been wrong multiple times. Be careful of what he says!
Fractal of '14 is 11.5k and '11 13k. I wouldn't want to short in a bullish environment that has huge momentum, you'll get rekt.
Still in short position?
Yes...
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%
The risk/reward ratio appears to justify the trade, but I think that's because of the inflated reward. What likelihood do you actually put on reaching the $4,000s?
The 2/26 breakout candle on the 4h was simply too strong to justify continually shorting without confirmation. Especially while margin shorts are standing near ATHs and have risen by ~20% in the last month. The perma-shorters have got big balls, but I don't know how long they'll keep their shirts. This is coming from someone who expected a dip to the $8,000s two weeks ago....
....and had to re-assess. Trading is all about reaction after all (not prediction)!
To be honest, though, I'm rooting for your short here, as I didn't re-buy 100% of my position yet.
Still expecting the bear market to resume with an initial target of 4257 (Bitfinex), which would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.
10,000 is a strong psychological level, so would expect price action to linger ±1000 points either side of it for a while to confuse both the bulls & bears. However, the wider crypto market provides the clues and is favoring the bears.
Would reassess the bear market analysis if +13,000 is taken out to the upside.
You got some balls to not have closed your short here if you ain't scalping, it's obvious the bull run is not about to end, but gaining momentum and strength for the last few days. They gonna squeeze the shorts, just like they gonna catch joe fomo at the top again.
If we look at fractals from '11 and '14 (blow off top), the bull trap happens around 13k, not before. This is "normal" phase before the crash to 8k -> 4.6k -> 3k -> 2k and I wouldn't be surprised 3 digits to $1k in accumulation phase and I wouldn't be even surprised if we continue the bubble to 50k before crashing, although the latter possibility is < 10% (given the emotional state of a hurt pleb (and yes, everyone in the world already knows about bitcoin, you're late and a pleb if you don't know, because you're one of them), lack of volume conviction and the major bad news that still is en route).
Nevertheless, the cycles get faster after each bubble, so end of 2018 we can already be at 10k or even 20k. A bear market for 1-2 year ain't bad.
Nevertheless, your fractals are on spot, around same trajectory as me, but this short at mid level can cost you some $$.
So basically for you first move we are going to fake breakout now till 13K, and then go to 8-6-4.6 and 3K?
Yes, 6 feb was new cycle and we finish ew 5th leg to around 13k, which coincides with 50% retracement on the entire structure since bullrun. I'd consider this a full out bull trap and a good place to short starting from 12.85k.
Correlates to fractals of '11 and '14. The crash will be consolidated with spring cycle with sharp move downward.
Still in short position?
Yes...
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%
The risk/reward ratio appears to justify the trade, but I think that's because of the inflated reward. What likelihood do you actually put on reaching the $4,000s?
The 2/26 breakout candle on the 4h was simply too strong to justify continually shorting without confirmation. Especially while margin shorts are standing near ATHs and have risen by ~20% in the last month. The perma-shorters have got big balls, but I don't know how long they'll keep their shirts. This is coming from someone who expected a dip to the $8,000s two weeks ago....
....and had to re-assess. Trading is all about reaction after all (not prediction)!
To be honest, though, I'm rooting for your short here, as I didn't re-buy 100% of my position yet.
Still expecting the bear market to resume with an initial target of 4257 (Bitfinex), which would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.
10,000 is a strong psychological level, so would expect price action to linger ±1000 points either side of it for a while to confuse both the bulls & bears. However, the wider crypto market provides the clues and is favoring the bears.
Would reassess the bear market analysis if +13,000 is taken out to the upside.
You got some balls to not have closed your short here if you ain't scalping, it's obvious the bull run is not about to end, but gaining momentum and strength for the last few days. They gonna squeeze the shorts, just like they gonna catch joe fomo at the top again.
If we look at fractals from '11 and '14 (blow off top), the bull trap happens around 13k, not before. This is "normal" phase before the crash to 8k -> 4.6k -> 3k -> 2k and I wouldn't be surprised 3 digits to $1k in accumulation phase and I wouldn't be even surprised if we continue the bubble to 50k before crashing, although the latter possibility is < 10% (given the emotional state of a hurt pleb (and yes, everyone in the world already knows about bitcoin, you're late and a pleb if you don't know, because you're one of them), lack of volume conviction and the major bad news that still is en route).
Nevertheless, the cycles get faster after each bubble, so end of 2018 we can already be at 10k or even 20k. A bear market for 1-2 year ain't bad.
Nevertheless, your fractals are on spot, around same trajectory as me, but this short at mid level can cost you some $$.
So basically for you first move we are going to fake breakout now till 13K, and then go to 8-6-4.6 and 3K?
Still in short position?
Yes...
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%
The risk/reward ratio appears to justify the trade, but I think that's because of the inflated reward. What likelihood do you actually put on reaching the $4,000s?
The 2/26 breakout candle on the 4h was simply too strong to justify continually shorting without confirmation. Especially while margin shorts are standing near ATHs and have risen by ~20% in the last month. The perma-shorters have got big balls, but I don't know how long they'll keep their shirts. This is coming from someone who expected a dip to the $8,000s two weeks ago....
....and had to re-assess. Trading is all about reaction after all (not prediction)!
To be honest, though, I'm rooting for your short here, as I didn't re-buy 100% of my position yet.
Still expecting the bear market to resume with an initial target of 4257 (Bitfinex), which would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.
10,000 is a strong psychological level, so would expect price action to linger ±1000 points either side of it for a while to confuse both the bulls & bears. However, the wider crypto market provides the clues and is favoring the bears.
Would reassess the bear market analysis if +13,000 is taken out to the upside.
You got some balls to not have closed your short here if you ain't scalping, it's obvious the bull run is not about to end, but gaining momentum and strength for the last few days. They gonna squeeze the shorts, just like they gonna catch joe fomo at the top again.
If we look at fractals from '11 and '14 (blow off top), the bull trap happens around 13k, not before. This is "normal" phase before the crash to 8k -> 4.6k -> 3k -> 2k and I wouldn't be surprised 3 digits to $1k in accumulation phase and I wouldn't be even surprised if we continue the bubble to 50k before crashing, although the latter possibility is < 10% (given the emotional state of a hurt pleb (and yes, everyone in the world already knows about bitcoin, you're late and a pleb if you don't know, because you're one of them), lack of volume conviction and the major bad news that still is en route).
Nevertheless, the cycles get faster after each bubble, so end of 2018 we can already be at 10k or even 20k. A bear market for 1-2 year ain't bad.
Nevertheless, your fractals are on spot, around same trajectory as me, but this short at mid level can cost you some $$.
Cryptocurrency bubble appears to be over, and a spectacular crash and bear market seems imminent.
Man I am old! I've been hearing this for years! Haha it's like the children never learn and think they are born knowing everything.
There have been plenty of spectacular crashes, they are fun, get the heart pumping, but in the end it's all just a blip in the road ahead.
I am seeing so many people do meet ups and talk about Bitcoin and crypto currency it's is crazy. To see how far this has all come!
To think it's all over is insane, what world are you living in!
Bitcoin may bounce towards approx $15500 on Bitfinex, followed by a crash towards $7000-$8000, and then eventually to $2000-$4000.
Yawn. This is really not a novel prediction and even if it were to happen and turn into a bear market for 2018 it doesn't matter, it never has.
Are you really buying for the month to month price swings? That's a good way to get destroyed.
Try investing for a few years at least.
Majority of other cryptocurrencies may cease to exist.
And exactly what mechanic will cause this to happen? Not sure if you're aware but the founding principle of crypto is based on Nakamoto consensus which means that it's unlikely a decentralized system will die. Hell even 51% attacked coins continue to exist and process transactions.
P.S. It is most unfortunate that people of Reddit have chosen to bury, down-vote and delete all posts of this subject matter! Losses could be prevented and gains donated to charity!
Meh, anyone scared of short term losses shouldn't be in crypto currency anyway.
Still in short position?
Yes...
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%
The risk/reward ratio appears to justify the trade, but I think that's because of the inflated reward. What likelihood do you actually put on reaching the $4,000s?
The 2/26 breakout candle on the 4h was simply too strong to justify continually shorting without confirmation. Especially while margin shorts are standing near ATHs and have risen by ~20% in the last month. The perma-shorters have got big balls, but I don't know how long they'll keep their shirts. This is coming from someone who expected a dip to the $8,000s two weeks ago....
....and had to re-assess. Trading is all about reaction after all (not prediction)!
To be honest, though, I'm rooting for your short here, as I didn't re-buy 100% of my position yet.
Still expecting the bear market to resume with an initial target of 4257 (Bitfinex), which would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.
10,000 is a strong psychological level, so would expect price action to linger ±1000 points either side of it for a while to confuse both the bulls & bears. However, the wider crypto market provides the clues and is favoring the bears.
Would reassess the bear market analysis if +13,000 is taken out to the upside.
Things can prologate in time, but we can see that large players are still dumping on any rise.
Sometimes with hundreds of BTC in one minute.
Maybe it's not a case, but still, we just moved from this low without anything, and moved on, didn't rally so much too, just in the limbo zone.
Sometimes with hundreds of BTC in one minute.
Maybe it's not a case, but still, we just moved from this low without anything, and moved on, didn't rally so much too, just in the limbo zone.
Still in short position?
Yes...
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%
The risk/reward ratio appears to justify the trade, but I think that's because of the inflated reward. What likelihood do you actually put on reaching the $4,000s?
The 2/26 breakout candle on the 4h was simply too strong to justify continually shorting without confirmation. Especially while margin shorts are standing near ATHs and have risen by ~20% in the last month. The perma-shorters have got big balls, but I don't know how long they'll keep their shirts. This is coming from someone who expected a dip to the $8,000s two weeks ago....
....and had to re-assess. Trading is all about reaction after all (not prediction)!
To be honest, though, I'm rooting for your short here, as I didn't re-buy 100% of my position yet.
Still in short position?
Yes...
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%
Still in short position?
Honestly, I have enough of these topics when someone is claiming that the cryptocurrency is gonna crash.
And every time when something like our current decline is happening they are totally happy and think that this is something they predicted.
Ha, fat chance - no one could predict anything linked to the future price of cryptocurrency, we can only speculate and base our knowledge on extrapolation!
Don't waste your time with theories who have no scientific background and instead are constructed to be FUD spreaders.
This is right, even if someone is able to guess correctly, that was it, a guess, it is irrelevant unless you can provide accurate predictions again and again and we know no one can do that since the markets are incredibly complex and no one has devised a way to predict them accurately.And every time when something like our current decline is happening they are totally happy and think that this is something they predicted.
Ha, fat chance - no one could predict anything linked to the future price of cryptocurrency, we can only speculate and base our knowledge on extrapolation!
Don't waste your time with theories who have no scientific background and instead are constructed to be FUD spreaders.
So you actually say that's it's better just to blindly put money, instead of actual doing of TA, and getting some more help from fundamentals (which are mainly only some drive from TA based perspective, as well as from rela perspective also) they adds fuel only.
TA can't be 100% accurate. But if you are >=70% accurate, that's not just a random guess or accident.
Any changes?
No change so far.Expecting the bounce to end around 10556 to 10845 (Coinbase).
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