Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 23. (Read 26015 times)

The Rally Resumes II

Bitcoin has taken out the 11250 (Bitfinex) high; and hence, the stop-loss on the short position has been triggered at a 7% loss.

Fibonacci resistance clusters, zone 1:
@11306: 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from 17-DEC-2017
@11626: 50% retracement of the downtrend from 06-JAN-2018
@11652: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.236 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-11652).
@11528: Average

Fibonacci resistance clusters, zone 2:
@12100: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.382 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-12100).
@12293: 38.2% retracement of entire Bitcoin market.
@12463: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.5 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-12463).
@12285: Average

Cumulative average: 11907

At time of writing, taking out the low of 10900 would suggest the rally losing momentum. The low of 10122 is the current key level between the bulls & bears.

But thinking that extrapolating charts will make it isn't wise thing to think.
Why?
Because you must include volume. Do you know what volume must be to support 40K price, let alone 100K ?
Going from 10$ to 1000$, wasn't that hard when volume with 10$ was 100.000$, or maybe a million.
Just multiply it x30-x50, and it will make it there.
Now multiply price of current BTC price to volume (and it will require more, volume, because rising so exponentially it would make it selling pressure, even harder, because it's just unrealistic price for an asset, because still BTC is mostly used as a speculation vehicle)
50-100B$? Or more? And that's only for BTC. There would have to be like literally more volume than on the most of the stock exchanges, and that's just a really big and wishful thinking, especially seeing that when interest widen off - the volume is literally slummered, and is going down and down.
And a lot of volume is only bots trading, it really makes you think how much real activity is there.

BTW. - I wonder how mining would work - and would it consume energy not of a small state, at 100K, it would consume energy of a big country.
Inflating prices of GPUs also, and probably CPUs... Hell, you don't want to see it really, it would really messed up consumer electronics prices, badly.

But I can be wrong. Just makes you think it would actually drain volume from real stock exchanges into tokens world exchanging.
Wow, and it would be strange to see.

Calculated how?

I can't say for sure we're out of the bear market but the current trend is clearly up. Trade the trend till you are wrong  then reassess. Shorting an uptrend just because an a,b,c 1,2,3 progression says so is just too risky for me. All the Elliot Wave people I've seen have been calling for us to go back to 5k since the start of the uptrend and getting wrecked the whole time. From what I've seen from you and others it appears to me that Elliot Wave is most accurate on weekly charts or longer and not as accurate on daily charts or shorter. Either that or it's not being applied correctly.

There's math traders, there's TA traders, there's fundamental traders, there's trend traders, there's gut traders. None of them are right all the time but if you can combine them properly hopefully you can be right more than 50% of the time and that's all you can really hope for. Risk management is where the profit is made in trading.

Trading masterluc's chart https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/ has still proven correct.

That's why it's usually a good idea to place the stop loss somewhere above/below the price pivot. Price often comes back to retest the high/low before reversing the trend, running everyone's stops. It's still possible this is a "last point of supply" before moving down, but you're right, it's definitely threatening to push new highs now.

Above $12,000 or so, sellers are no longer in control.

SL triggered. Hmm, yep seems 11.600-800 zone is immienient.

I am pretty certain we are going to get a second correction of more than 50% decline in BTC price within the next week.

His latest bet..  Pretty good when going down but umm.. He'll get tired of losing money soon and stop posting.
OPEN: 10522
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11250
RISK: 7%
REWARD: 60%

Were you stopped out or are you close to being be stopped?
Seems that bounce is prolonging. Strange enough, still 11.600-800 zone probably will be tested.

Correct, the weekend of 11-FEB-2018 did produce a rally.
However, 6 out of 8 weekends since the end of 2017 have been the start of major sell-off legs averaging 34% in declines.
The current 9th weekend has already started with a 10% decline. Statistically, this would equate to a 77% chance of a bear market underway.

I like this chart a lot. However you conveniently left out 2/11 which was followed by a green candle and a run of over $2k. I think this chart applies aptly in a bear market, but are we in a bear market? I recall during the run up from October that every Monday morning price seemed to go up.

Looking back:

Sunday 11/12 - followed by a green candle and big rally
Sunday 11/19 - followed by a green candle and consolidation
Sunday 11/26 - followed by a green candle and rally
Sunday 12/3   - followed by a green candle and big rally
Sunday 12/10 - followed by a huge green candle

Then the pattern flips to bear starting with your first date of 12/17.

So this pattern may just as well tell us tomorrow will be a big green day if we are out of the bear and back in the bull. Looks like Mondays are trend confirmation days.

I'm skeptical of a larger bear market, but as I said up-thread, the $11,000s were a clear profit-taking level. Ideally, we'll go on a fishing expedition and form a stronger mode off the $7,500-$8,000 area (previous pivot supports). Then retry for the $14,000s.


Most of us don't care about peoples' track record. If someone has made some good calls, good for them. The truth is, the technicians that made this forum great once are gone. I'm here looking for trading ideas, especially those that conflict with mine. And I'm here to gauge sentiment. I'm not here to pick apart peoples' past calls and berate them over it. And if somebody is going to do that, they should be bringing their own analysis to the table.

I saw it earlier.

For me it looks he said - his beginnings - I have clearly a better trader skills or chartists, than I was 2 years ago, and after 10 years I think he improved quite considerably too.

You can watch and play his charts on tradingview, which were clear on point, with this downturn.

He has made a mistake calling a bottom to early, than overextending it - but most of the movements were quite right.

I read what you have written. You wrote about, that majority of his preditictions and analysis were wrong in 2010, so you basically make an assumption on this, that he probably will be wrong today too.

Ah, and also that he is spreading bullshit, and that he is probably a scammer, and trying to take advantage of this situation in crypto (wtf? What situation? He wants to make money on trades, and, if "that's taking advantage of situation", clearly you don't have an agenda /s).

You can deny his opinion, yeah, but you make personal innuendos, of something that was 10 years ago, and you try not to see how successful (or unsuccessful), he was now, just dissmissing it, as "Every new year contains a short bear market previous has a short dip", and "trying to find trends with something that is not there".

I have seen clear rejections on candles 1H and 4H and clear response of the market to his exact numbers. You can check it, it's one of the things, why I follow his analysis closely.

I guess, that people, which have a lot of arguments against tether/bitfinex or any other crypto markets points-of-failure, is also regarded by you as bullshit, isn't it?

I have no agenda.


And I'm telling this board what I see on his website; this mans previous failures.  Looking at his history, we can see his predictions and analysis is wrong.  History doesn't lie.  People do.


You clearly didn't read my post.  You are now the second person that failed in this thread.

Anyone can feel free to do what they want, but I am here to give everyone the information that readers deserve to know and let people know this mans previous failures are prevalent throughout his blog.  The information is there, it's your choice what you want to do with it.

You are clearly one with agenda.
He is telling, what he sees on the chart.
I see weakness, and bear market immient too, and if you can't see it, you clearly didn't even try to make some basic attempts for TA.
No-one can predict market - that's true. But with TA you can make your chances better at finding patterns, and various types of price action, strenght, volume, resistance and supports.
And with crypto it works good, even better than in normal equities or indicies (of course there are manipulation so you must watch out of needles on the charts to not get stopped out.
Would you call me a scammer and FUDster too?
Because I'm not within your clear, bright picture.

I don't agree on some points (like vaporing alts below 2B$ capitalization - they will probably be under pressure, but they won't vapor away), but it's not a point to make personal innuendos.

Bitcoin Weekends

Thanks!  I call out scammers (Steve Puri) when they show up.  Well, I don't know if you're a true scammer, but you're trying to take advantage of this situation in crypto.  There's no downside with doing what you're doing from your viewpoint, if you're wrong nothing comes to it.  If you are correct, people will say that you predicted the market!  No one can predict the markets, and as shown by your previous blog you sure as hell damn know that as well.  Trying to spread your bullshit and have people brigade on other boards kind of raised a red flag.  Just want people to be aware that your previous history is an utter failure.


Have a good one!

Okay, great; thank you KimJungUn; detective work appreciated.  

The majority are failed.  Anyone can feel free to look at it, I have not seen 1 correct "elliot wave" prediction correct on your blog.


Every new year contains a short bear market previous has a short dip.  There was no prediction.


Never said you did, but telling people to up vote on Reddit and to share is kind of suspect.

Ah, the old blog site from +10 years ago, as you've pointed out, is here:
stevepuri.blogspot.co.uk

There are both failed and successful posts there; suppose you have to start somewhere —thank you for the nostalgia!

In regards to current accuracy and precision, feel free to the see the cryptocurrency predictions from 08-JAN-2018 posted here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.27738471

This thread contains a fair share of speculative losses and gains with no absolute claim or agenda.

I was intrigued by this post.  I wondered to myself, how accurate and precise are you actually?  Then I looked at your previous works located at http://stevepuri.blogspot.com/2010/07/s-speculative-elliott-wave-projection.html  I realized that you were wrong with the majority of your "predictions".  You're trying to find trends with something that is not there, you don't know how the market will react as no one does.

This is a BS thread with someone trying to BS everyone with their BS predictions. Move along.

PS:  I took snapshots of all your previous graphs if you try and delete them.