https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3IVGEP9P-2018-Cryptocurrency-Crash-Elliott-Wave-Recommencing/
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10522
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11250
RISK: 7%
REWARD: 60%
Happy Chinese New Bear!
Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 24. (Read 26030 times)
Retry Short
https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3IVGEP9P-2018-Cryptocurrency-Crash-Elliott-Wave-Recommencing/
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10522
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11250
RISK: 7%
REWARD: 60%
Happy Chinese New Bear!
https://uk.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3IVGEP9P-2018-Cryptocurrency-Crash-Elliott-Wave-Recommencing/
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10522
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11250
RISK: 7%
REWARD: 60%
Happy Chinese New Bear!
The Rally Resumes
The market has broken out to the upside and taken out what was assumed to be the end of the bear market rally at 10271 (Bitfinex).
Since the breakout from 10271, a subdivision and extension of the waves, the market has further rallied an additional 8% which has recovered the 4% loss from the previous mentioned short position. From the 6000 lows, the market has now staged a 90% gain.
The first upside resistance at 10926 where the first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) equalling the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-10926), has now been surpassed —quite a rally.
Next areas of Fibonacci resistance clusters as follows:
@11306: 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from 17-DEC-2017
@11626: 50% retracement of the downtrend from 06-JAN-2018
@11652: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.236 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-11652).
Any of the above levels may serve to end the bear market rally, with the average being at 11528.
At time of writing, taking out the low of 10522 would be the first indication to suggest the rally losing momentum. At which price, a second attempt short position would be placed with a stop at the previous swing high.
The market has broken out to the upside and taken out what was assumed to be the end of the bear market rally at 10271 (Bitfinex).
Since the breakout from 10271, a subdivision and extension of the waves, the market has further rallied an additional 8% which has recovered the 4% loss from the previous mentioned short position. From the 6000 lows, the market has now staged a 90% gain.
The first upside resistance at 10926 where the first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) equalling the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-10926), has now been surpassed —quite a rally.
Next areas of Fibonacci resistance clusters as follows:
@11306: 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from 17-DEC-2017
@11626: 50% retracement of the downtrend from 06-JAN-2018
@11652: The first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) times 1.236 in length, would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-11652).
Any of the above levels may serve to end the bear market rally, with the average being at 11528.
At time of writing, taking out the low of 10522 would be the first indication to suggest the rally losing momentum. At which price, a second attempt short position would be placed with a stop at the previous swing high.
There isn't such thing as FUD. It's good, if you have doubts in the crypto especially at such valuations, because it was enormously pumped, by a lot of strange groups, from stock markets abusers and scammers, to other shady entities.
Currently cryptocurrencies markets and space is overriden with scams and p'n'd obvious scams.
Verge is pumping again for whatever reason - just because it has some entities interested to pump it again.
I think we agree with the fact that 95% of all cryptocurrencies are overvalued.Currently cryptocurrencies markets and space is overriden with scams and p'n'd obvious scams.
Verge is pumping again for whatever reason - just because it has some entities interested to pump it again.
But you cannot deny that there is some FUD. I don't speak about "bad news" like the China bans - bad news are bad news, not FUD. The China bans, for example, meant that Bitcoin has practically lost about 1/7 of the world population as possible adopters. Even the Tether story - I wouldn't qualify it as FUD but as legitimate doubts about a pretty shady business model. FUD occurs mostly in forums, on Twitter, Facebook etc. There are specialized FUD accounts here at Bitcointalk, as there are FOMO accounts. And their targets are the "noobs" that cannot distinguish "real bad news" from FUD. (In the German forum, we have one account that was ultra-bearish until the 6000 bottom and predicted about $1000/BTC or less. Now he's talking about $20K. Seriously ...)
Quote
And a lot of cryptos work like these. It isn't normal, and if it will still be like this:
1/ Nobody will perceive this space serious, a lot of people will see it as a penny stocks speculation
2/ When hype die down, entities will hold their shitcoins to pump and unload, or will be unloading and surpressing prices on a lot of coins.
3/ Price speculation is killing purpose - useful currency, and adoption is almost 0.
1 and 2 apply almost exclusively to altcoins - mostly to the "hypecoins" that are constantly pumped and dumped -, and I agree here. But Bitcoin itself is increasingly taken seriously, only the volatility problem must be solved (apart from the scalability problem and the energy problem - we know which coin(s) could possibly solve these problems 1/ Nobody will perceive this space serious, a lot of people will see it as a penny stocks speculation
2/ When hype die down, entities will hold their shitcoins to pump and unload, or will be unloading and surpressing prices on a lot of coins.
3/ Price speculation is killing purpose - useful currency, and adoption is almost 0.
).
My TA perspective is mostly classical. There should be significant horizontal resistance near the apex and breakdown level of the January consolidation, $11,250-$12,200. We are also approaching time targets for this rally. I'm hoping for a spike into that overhead resistance before the rally takes a breather. It lines up well with the .382 of the downtrend as well:
I mostly agree with the general situation the OP is describing - we're inside a temporary bounce in a bear market - although I have other "target prices" (mainly because I don't take into account only TA but also factors like adoption, technological cryptocurrency evolution and mass psychology).
I expect that the current upwards price movement is strong enough to test the superior line of the mid-term bearish trend channel that begun at $20000. Shorter-term channels have been relatively important in the last downmove. The current impulse wave may even be strong enough for a false breakout up to ~13-14K, similar to what ocurred in early to mid-2014.
Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unravelling bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases approx 90% in value (thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes)
Applying the metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin between $850 and $2500 around 2Q2019.
In past Bitcoin bubbles, bear markets (I define those phases as "bear markets" when Bitcoin lost, in a single downmove, more than 50% of its value) were much shorter:
- 2011: 6 months (June-November)
- 2013: 3-4 months (April-July; you could even say "days" if you take into account the short dip to $50 in April)
- 2013-15: 14 months (December 2013-January 2015)
The reason is, in my opinion, the extreme high volatility - a result of three main factors:
- many unskilled investors that are vulnerable to FUD and FOMO
- the lack of a definitive "valuation metric" - look here for some thoughts on it (and read the linked article).
- the lack of real usage for payments; which makes the connection to real-world goods and services harder (a "problem" specific to currencies)
That's why I don't expect a 2 year bear market; I would predict a definitive low in late 2018 or early 2019, and thus a similar price evolution to the 2013-15 downtrend. I expect the definitive low to be between 1800 and 3000 (two points of the upmove both tested by uptrends and downtrends).
However, things can turn bullish at any time if the scalability problem is solved, for example, with a reliably working Lightning Network. I don't expect that to happen, however, until mid-2018 as a very optimistic estimation.
I expect that the current upwards price movement is strong enough to test the superior line of the mid-term bearish trend channel that begun at $20000. Shorter-term channels have been relatively important in the last downmove. The current impulse wave may even be strong enough for a false breakout up to ~13-14K, similar to what ocurred in early to mid-2014.
Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unravelling bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases approx 90% in value (thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes)
Applying the metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin between $850 and $2500 around 2Q2019.
- 2011: 6 months (June-November)
- 2013: 3-4 months (April-July; you could even say "days" if you take into account the short dip to $50 in April)
- 2013-15: 14 months (December 2013-January 2015)
The reason is, in my opinion, the extreme high volatility - a result of three main factors:
- many unskilled investors that are vulnerable to FUD and FOMO
- the lack of a definitive "valuation metric" - look here for some thoughts on it (and read the linked article).
- the lack of real usage for payments; which makes the connection to real-world goods and services harder (a "problem" specific to currencies)
That's why I don't expect a 2 year bear market; I would predict a definitive low in late 2018 or early 2019, and thus a similar price evolution to the 2013-15 downtrend. I expect the definitive low to be between 1800 and 3000 (two points of the upmove both tested by uptrends and downtrends).
However, things can turn bullish at any time if the scalability problem is solved, for example, with a reliably working Lightning Network. I don't expect that to happen, however, until mid-2018 as a very optimistic estimation.
So 10.926 next resistance, which is quite close now.
Huh..
Apart of the rest of statements (which are quite interesting and insightful, though I believe are based on the incorrect assumption), this one left me puzzled:
So you again make this inconsiderate statement (I wont go into details as you don't seem to be interested), but this time its completely non-understandable. "under $200" what? Under $200 per coin? Regardless of marketcap and number of coins in existence!?
How the price per coin would affect viability of a project? I cannot see any sense in that statement. Is this a typo and you actually meant "under $200K in marketcap" or even something different? Please explain.
Apart of the rest of statements (which are quite interesting and insightful, though I believe are based on the incorrect assumption), this one left me puzzled:
—Majority of Altcoins currently under $200 becoming extinct.
So you again make this inconsiderate statement (I wont go into details as you don't seem to be interested), but this time its completely non-understandable. "under $200" what? Under $200 per coin? Regardless of marketcap and number of coins in existence!?
How the price per coin would affect viability of a project? I cannot see any sense in that statement. Is this a typo and you actually meant "under $200K in marketcap" or even something different? Please explain.
CORRECTION: $2,000,000,000 market capitalization
The Elliott Wave counts look pretty wonky. C waves are impulsive; what are these endless ABCs? I'm also skeptical of the declaring top just because we reached the .382. And frankly, we didn't even get that far. Both Bitstamp and Bitfinex retraced about 30%. While a zig zag with such a small B wave is possible, why would you consider it likely? I pointed out the possibility last week, but I'd wait for some confirmation, especially now that we're forming a doji on the daily chart. No impulsive downside detected.
The charts were posted today.....what do you expect?
What's the next position?
The charts were posted today.....what do you expect?
What's the next position?
Huh..
Apart of the rest of statements (which are quite interesting and insightful, though I believe are based on the incorrect assumption), this one left me puzzled:
So you again make this inconsiderate statement (I wont go into details as you don't seem to be interested), but this time its completely non-understandable. "under $200" what? Under $200 per coin? Regardless of marketcap and number of coins in existence!?
How the price per coin would affect viability of a project? I cannot see any sense in that statement. Is this a typo and you actually meant "under $200K in marketcap" or even something different? Please explain.
Apart of the rest of statements (which are quite interesting and insightful, though I believe are based on the incorrect assumption), this one left me puzzled:
—Majority of Altcoins currently under $200 becoming extinct.
So you again make this inconsiderate statement (I wont go into details as you don't seem to be interested), but this time its completely non-understandable. "under $200" what? Under $200 per coin? Regardless of marketcap and number of coins in existence!?
How the price per coin would affect viability of a project? I cannot see any sense in that statement. Is this a typo and you actually meant "under $200K in marketcap" or even something different? Please explain.
Smart man is smart people. Don't hate.
Oh I like you.....
2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave): Recommencing?
From the 6000 (Bitfinex) lows set on 06-FEB-2018, Bitcoin has rallied +70% taking out the psychological $10,000 level.
The 10-day bounce has been fairly broad-based across the majority of the top 10 marketcap cryptocurrencies which have been partaking in the rally.
Barring any wave extensions and subdivisions, there now appears enough waves to suggest the rally is complete. Price action seems to have found resistance just shy of 10298, which represents a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018.
Preliminary weakening price action suggests the rally is complete; and next leg of the bear market, the second crash wave, may be commencing.
In regards to the psychological state of mind: Taking out 8000 would reaffirm the ‘fear’ phase. Taking out the 6000 lows would represent the ‘capitulation’ stage —where mass media hysterics peak and exchange outages occur. The 78.6% retracement of the entire market at 4257 begins the ‘despair’ state of affairs.
From a political and socionomic standpoint, the following events (termed as “FUD” by millennials) may begin to unravel during the second leg of the bear market:
—Further laws/bans/restrictions upon cryptocurrencies invoked by countries/governments, calling for tighter regulation and fraud prevention: positive rulings, but perceived as negatives.
—Prolonged exchange outages preventing deposits/withdrawals and management of positions.
—Exposure and collapse of further Ponzi schemes.
—Majority of Altcoins currently under $2,000,000,000 market capitalization becoming extinct.
—Mergers & acquisitions of crypto companies in the endeavour to survive.
—Individual bankruptcies and suicides.
Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unravelling bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases approx 90% in value (thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes)
Applying the metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin between $850 and $2500 around 2Q2019.
Given the aforementioned criteria, 2 long-term short positions have been ordered with exact stops, but varying target limits:
—One with a target profit at 4257 which represents 78.6% retracement of the entire market; and,
—One with no target, i.e. an open-ended short position to ride the bear market.
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 9850
CLOSE: 4257
STOP: 10271
RISK: 4.3%
REWARD: 57%
If 10271 is taken out to the upside, it would suggest further wave subdivisions, and the rally is extending. The next upside resistance is around 10926 where the first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-10926).
Esoteric footnote: The first leg of the cryptocurrency bear market began on 17-DEC-2017, during a New Moon and leading up to the New Year. Should the second leg of the cryptocurrency bear market be commencing as of 16-FEB-2018, it would do so under a New Moon leading up to the Chinese New Bear.
Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure, not time:
From the 6000 (Bitfinex) lows set on 06-FEB-2018, Bitcoin has rallied +70% taking out the psychological $10,000 level.
The 10-day bounce has been fairly broad-based across the majority of the top 10 marketcap cryptocurrencies which have been partaking in the rally.
Barring any wave extensions and subdivisions, there now appears enough waves to suggest the rally is complete. Price action seems to have found resistance just shy of 10298, which represents a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018.
Preliminary weakening price action suggests the rally is complete; and next leg of the bear market, the second crash wave, may be commencing.
In regards to the psychological state of mind: Taking out 8000 would reaffirm the ‘fear’ phase. Taking out the 6000 lows would represent the ‘capitulation’ stage —where mass media hysterics peak and exchange outages occur. The 78.6% retracement of the entire market at 4257 begins the ‘despair’ state of affairs.
From a political and socionomic standpoint, the following events (termed as “FUD” by millennials) may begin to unravel during the second leg of the bear market:
—Further laws/bans/restrictions upon cryptocurrencies invoked by countries/governments, calling for tighter regulation and fraud prevention: positive rulings, but perceived as negatives.
—Prolonged exchange outages preventing deposits/withdrawals and management of positions.
—Exposure and collapse of further Ponzi schemes.
—Majority of Altcoins currently under $2,000,000,000 market capitalization becoming extinct.
—Mergers & acquisitions of crypto companies in the endeavour to survive.
—Individual bankruptcies and suicides.
Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unravelling bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases approx 90% in value (thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes)
Applying the metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin between $850 and $2500 around 2Q2019.
Given the aforementioned criteria, 2 long-term short positions have been ordered with exact stops, but varying target limits:
—One with a target profit at 4257 which represents 78.6% retracement of the entire market; and,
—One with no target, i.e. an open-ended short position to ride the bear market.
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 9850
CLOSE: 4257
STOP: 10271
RISK: 4.3%
REWARD: 57%
If 10271 is taken out to the upside, it would suggest further wave subdivisions, and the rally is extending. The next upside resistance is around 10926 where the first leg of the rally (i.e. 6000-9075) would equal the second leg of the rally (i.e. 7851-10926).
Esoteric footnote: The first leg of the cryptocurrency bear market began on 17-DEC-2017, during a New Moon and leading up to the New Year. Should the second leg of the cryptocurrency bear market be commencing as of 16-FEB-2018, it would do so under a New Moon leading up to the Chinese New Bear.
Elliott Wave model indicative of price and structure, not time:
Do you trade on bitfinex?
Is it ok? I heard not so good opinions + tether case...
Trade futures and spread bet through various brokers, but base decisions on Bitfinex/Coinbase prices.Is it ok? I heard not so good opinions + tether case...
Who do you recommend for futures trading? Bitmex or are there others? Thanks.
Ok, so position long has closed.
Did you open short, or are you waiting for more signals to come?
These 2 days move is apparently quite bullish, at least for now.
And we are very close to 10.300 mark.
Did you open short, or are you waiting for more signals to come?
These 2 days move is apparently quite bullish, at least for now.
And we are very close to 10.300 mark.
Correct, the following long position has now closed with a 12.5% profit (technically a net 8.5% gain given the 4% loss of the previous short position):
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 9000
CLOSE: 10122
STOP: 8313
RISK: 7.6%
REWARD: 12.5%
OPEN: 9000
CLOSE: 10122
STOP: 8313
RISK: 7.6%
REWARD: 12.5%
Currently awaiting further technical signals before calling the top.
Let's see how the market behaves at the 10298 (Bitfinex) area, which represents 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline which began on 06-JAN-2018.
At the moment, taking out 9850 (Bitfinex) would be the first signal to suggest a weakening market.
Interesting to note just prior to the New Year marked the top in crypto; and now the Chinese New Year is approaching.
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1011
Reverse engineer from time to time
Looking at previous supports/resistances, we will likely, apart from 10300, encounter serious resistance at 10700.
Ok, so position long has closed.
Did you open short, or are you waiting for more signals to come?
These 2 days move is apparently quite bullish, at least for now.
And we are very close to 10.300 mark.
Did you open short, or are you waiting for more signals to come?
These 2 days move is apparently quite bullish, at least for now.
And we are very close to 10.300 mark.
Do you trade on bitfinex?
Is it ok? I heard not so good opinions + tether case...
Trade futures and spread bet through various brokers, but base decisions on Bitfinex/Coinbase prices. Is it ok? I heard not so good opinions + tether case...
Do you trade on bitfinex?
Is it ok? I heard not so good opinions + tether case...
Is it ok? I heard not so good opinions + tether case...
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