Topic: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) - page 21. (Read 26030 times)

Any changes?

Interesting... If we take the pattern of the 2013-2014 bubble (for example from here: https://mobile.twitter.com/cryptohodlor/status/958352479934017539/photo/1) and just plainly apply it on current one, we can notice up to now everything seems extremely similar. Even the bounce levels are exactly the same, we just need to make two adjustments:
 1. The price on the old chart has to be multiplied by around x18 (the total peak of 1.1K becomes 20K, the first bounce bottom of 330 becomes 6K, the bounce peak of 670 becomes 12K etc)
 2. The time scale needs to be adjusted by around x3 (things now seem to change 3x faster)

With those adjustments to the old chart we get exactly what we have now in 2018.

If this analogy is correct, the absolute bottom of this beginning bear market will be around 3.8-4K, it will be reached in around 4 months from the peak (somewhere in April), and the overall length of bear market would be around 8 months (rising back somewhere in August?).

Well, that 'guy' doesn't need to be there all the time. If he bought at lows and disappeared for a while, one would assume he could be accumulating. If you didn't see him selling, thats actually good news.

This market IS manipulated, so any kind of surprises are to be expected. The natural strong support currently lies quite lower, somewhere around 2K, in my humble opinion. There is an old masterluk chart, which looks to be quite good to base on. According to that, current strong support is around 6-7K, with the huge level of support being around 2.8K. BTW, that chart was there when we bounced from 6k, exactly from the level he has predicted almost one year ago.

In any case the important thing is - this new technology has a merit (a lot of it) and the natural support will grow, as the tech matures. This is important to remember, to keep the peace of mind. And the peace of mind is much more important than the price

Probably one of the sheningans from bitfinex, to give early adopters, and other people, who are actually dumping, some breath and not crush market totally.
Strange enough I'm seeing, that these guys want to sell BTC quite fast - these 5M red candles, are containing about 200-500BTC each of dumped BTC.

At least we have orderbook open and can see, that there is shady practices going on.

You can stare at charts all day but at the end of the day you have what you been hodl for so long.
Right now it doesn't look so bright as it has gone down to a two month low in less than the last 24 hours.
But you only need to wait another 24 hours for it to recover.

And another reason why I'm so bearish: in the last crash, the one until $6000, there was a HUGE buyer, who kept the market alive on his own, on bitfinex. He easily bought 25.000 BTC when it started tanking within 24 hours, using hidden orders. I made a topic about it when it happened: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wtf-just-happened-bitfinex-scam-2864671 And he kept buying after the first 24 hours too, all the way up to 10k. Without this guy the markets would have tanked to $3000-$4000. And the thing is, I haven't seen this guy in a while. So it seems he's done. Without him, the markets will die way harder than last time if it starts tanking.

Well all anybody can do is speculate. But I follow 2 people in the Netherlands who are right quite often and they're drawing similar charts:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DWp88etWsAA6MMC.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DWtE8iOUQAEps9y.jpg:large

Pretty much like topic starter here.

So if they're correct, we might be heading to $3000-$4000

Needless to say, I'm positioned fully short at the moment.

I wonder whats your definition of "HARD"?

Haha yeah that's how it works. The crypto believers call anything they don't like 'FUD'. Well we'll see who's right soon enough. This thing is going to crash HARD

Shhh... What you are saying, it's only "FUD", what you are doing, you want to destroy cryptocurrencies, let's pretend there isn't downtrend, just say everything is ok, and in colourful rainbow.
You are public enemy numero uno for crypto culters.

Stupidity and ignorance has taken over. But yeah, everything is FUD. Strong points and numerous warnings are FUD, TA is FUD, market is FUDDed, tanking price (because of market cycle) is FUD, everything is FUD.

Crypto cult =/= People, who actually care about a state of cryptocurrencies environment/markets.

Everything going exactly like planned. Just broke the 9600, next stop will be 8900 and from there back to new lows

This is another FUD that is about to fail again and make those FUD spreaders to even hate cryptocurrencies. Yes they have the right to say about their opinion about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies but i just wonder until when they will stop wasting time spreading FUD even if they got denied by bitcoin and cryptocurrencies all the time.

I didn't follow NEO, cannot comment on that. But even briefly looking on alt list on CMC you can note their USD prices follow BTC to a big extent. BTC rallies make all the alt charts look fairly similar, just because they gain and lose USD value together, being driven by overall public sentiment towards crypto (and towards BTC as the main specimen of the crypto fauna ).

Looking on price against BTC (rather than USD) one could see whether alt is doing well or not. Not sure if it helps TA though... I personally usually am trying to catch the tendency of the project development, rather than base on TA for price prediction.

Major alts are better viewed with USD pairing, because BTC pairing is too erratic, and doesn't make sense, and I agree with it.
If you try to do TA on NEO with BTC, it doesn't make sense, because it was pumping insanely, and people who were pumping were focused on USD price, also when depumping it (when price to BTC collapsed, but to USD was quite stable, it was intentional to not collapse market too fast, because they also had another ace - which showed pumping from oct/nov).
Because of mega pumping BTC in 3-4Q 2017, most alts couldn't even achieve their ATH from may/june, so it was one of the indicators, that we are in downturns.

I wouldn't rely on those altcoin charts. OP obviously has very little idea on what altcoins are (what they are created for, what they are trying to achieve, what drives their price, etc), so he just draws those charts based purely on TA, without taking into account their possible (and ongoing) development and induced price swings.

Thats typical for most traders though. I really like this frase from Phillip Fisher, and it applies well here - "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing."

Also - thats my subjective view though - the main market for most alts is ALT/BTC, not ALT/USD, so analysis should be based on corresponding ALT/BTC charts.

Yeah, I know, I thought you had some other chart for whole marketcap, because I have (primitive, but estimates, are always good to have some point of view).

I see now, that you have included on all major alts USD, apart from ADA and TRX. So those are going to have major bloodbathes, under USD value from the start of charts, wow.

This guy from the Netherlands, who is right quite often, seems to agree with you:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DWp88etWsAA6MMC.jpg

I'm also extremely bearish, fully short now, let's go!

I guess you can do the marketcap math on that.

It is not, there was few use cases for BTC before 2015. Myself I only bought my first bitcoin in 2015, to pay a cloud service. This service was not accepting it before.

From 2015 to 2017 merchant adoption was only increasing. In June 2017 Steam started accepting bitcoin. When the bear market started in December, Steam stopped accepting bitcoin.

The fees only got really high after late October 2017, which became a concern for most merchants. If you say adoption was low, then someone might be spamming the network with fake transactions, to make the fees go higher, and who that might be? Some claim it was the BCash shills, others claim it was the banksters. Anyway, merchants stopped accepting it when the bear market started, in December. Before that there was even rumours that Amazon was going to accept it before Christmas, but it never happened due to speculation.

The massive spike was provoked by swing traders from Wall Street. They flooded the exchanges after futures got announced in late October. Those future markets are like casinos, and are settled in cash. They use leverage and win the contracts against a counterpart, cover their losses in cripto, make a profit in cash and start a bear market. The bankers then came and say "I told you so", and adoption drops even more. All the while the network spam stops, LN is implemented, bitcoin get better, but will the public use it? Each average joe who lost money with it will speak ill of it, and people will be afraid to use it, knowing it can drop 90% at any moment.

You cant have the same situation of 2013-2015, the multi-year bear market. At that time, there was nearly no merchant adoption, most people didnt even know about it. Now its different. If you have a multi-year bear market now, another crypto will take the crown from bitcoin, because there is a increasing demand for a digital currency, and people dont want one which is always going down.