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Topic: 2018 USA Mid Terms! Red or Blue Waves?!? - page 2. (Read 1708 times)

sr. member
Activity: 914
Merit: 252
November 15, 2018, 10:40:27 AM
LOL. "found" 30k ballots. Nothing to see here folks, move along.

10 years ago... there was a senate election in the state of Minnesota. Norm Coleman was the candidate of the GOP and Al Franken represented the Dems. After the counting was completed, Coleman had a 3,500 vote lead over Franken. But then mysteriously, thousands of ballots were "found" from places like rubbish bins and landfills. And even more mysteriously, all of these ballots were marked for Franken. The Democrat officials famously said: "We will count the votes again and again until Franken wins". And in the end Franken won by some 300 votes.
full member
Activity: 574
Merit: 152
November 13, 2018, 02:58:31 PM
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/416427-federal-judge-finds-georgia-county-violated-civil-rights-act-by-rejecting

Federal judge finds Georgia county violated Civil Rights Act by rejecting ballots


https://2vwlfu3ynqxb3npfhm3m8lde-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Show-Temp.pdf


goddamn.

Quote
Tuesday's ruling was handed down a day after a different federal judge ordered state election officials to preserve and count provisional ballots filed for the governor's race. That judge also ruled that Georgia election officials cannot certify the election until Friday at 5 p.m.


OH, MOAR FLORIDA NEWS:


https://theweek.com/speedreads/807424/heavily-republican-florida-county-allowed-some-residents-vote-by-email-apparently-illegally
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
November 13, 2018, 02:42:21 PM
Scott: "I r winning, MASSIVE FRAUD..."

TBH I don't get this. The recount is unlikely to change anything and the ridiculous deadline is probably going to prevent two bluest counties from completing it anyway. He'd look much smarter if he would just shut up and let the process work because in 6 years he's likely to be on the other side whining for a recount.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1757
Verified Bernie Bro - Feel The Bern!
November 13, 2018, 02:04:53 PM
Between 35 and 39 seat pick, Flakes old seat in AZ flipped to Sinema blue wave getting bigger everyday.

I think the Republicans are right there is massive electoral fraud in Florida and when the Republicans end up winning both contested seats they should be called null and void!

Scott: "I r winning, MASSIVE FRAUD..."

Guess I should have bet that moron earlier in the thread, oh well republican tears are still yummy!  Tongue

I guess this is one of the 20% when I'm not insane eh boss?  Grin
legendary
Activity: 2926
Merit: 1386
November 13, 2018, 01:06:57 PM
Right now:

51/47+2 for senate, which is pretty damned close to even control.

I wonder if that'll flip more seats after more Georgia vote suppression investigation. They did just find like 30k ballots from what I read.

LOL. "found" 30k ballots. Nothing to see here folks, move along.
I can see a way to stop that 100% with a blockchain.
legendary
Activity: 3318
Merit: 2008
First Exclusion Ever
November 12, 2018, 10:50:26 PM
Right now:

51/47+2 for senate, which is pretty damned close to even control.

I wonder if that'll flip more seats after more Georgia vote suppression investigation. They did just find like 30k ballots from what I read.

LOL. "found" 30k ballots. Nothing to see here folks, move along.
full member
Activity: 574
Merit: 152
November 12, 2018, 10:44:58 PM
Right now:

51/47+2 for senate, which is pretty damned close to even control.

I wonder if that'll flip more seats after more Georgia vote suppression investigation. They did just find like 30k ballots from what I read.



Holy shit, that's a lot of blue. Republicans flipped like 3 house seats... the rest of them flipped blue. Craziness.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
November 11, 2018, 08:48:56 PM
And when you lose 45 incumbents, don’t care who they are, because 98 percent of incumbents win reelection in the House, 98 percent. When 40 to 45 of your sitting Republicans get out of there, that presents another challenge, because those are open seats, become brand-new candidates on both sides. Incumbency is lost as a benefit.

How many of those open seats did Democrats win?
legendary
Activity: 2296
Merit: 2262
BTC or BUST
November 11, 2018, 08:44:51 PM
If you don't see the issue with your logic here by now, my explaining is not going to make anything better for you.

Quote from: satoshi on July 28, 2010
If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry.

With people displaying such outlandish beliefs, I rarely find it productive to argue with them.. Logic doesn't work very often at all..
They usually just repeat the same slander no matter how solid your counterargument is..
legendary
Activity: 2926
Merit: 1386
November 11, 2018, 07:02:28 PM
....

Which doesn't make any sense because there is no linear correlation "lower rating -> more lost seats". Again, from the same article the two elections where the President's rating was 40% or less had losses of 12 and 30 seats, or 21 on average. Trump lost 35-37. So which is it - Trump is worse at presidenting than Obama and Dubya, or this rating-to-seats criteria is meaningless? I'm leaning towards both.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/nov/7/rush-limbaugh-rips-republicans-who-bought-medias-b/

Rush Limbaugh said Wednesday the biggest losers in the midterm elections were Republicans who believed a “blue wave” was coming and distanced themselves — literally and figuratively — from President Trump.
Mr. Limbaugh said the political takeaway from Tuesday night was that “all of these RINO or old-fashioned establishment Republicans who just couldn’t stand Trump” miscalculated by retiring or attacking Mr. Trump on the campaign trail.
“The most House seats ever lost by a president’s party in power was Obama in 2010,” Mr. Limbaugh said. “He lost 63. Next was Bill Clinton in 1994. He lost 52. … So it was not a blue wave, especially when you go over to the Senate. … I mean, nine out of 11 people the president personally stumped for won.”
Mr. Limbaugh said that Republicans would have kept the House if dozens of skittish lawmakers had not retired.
“These moderate RINO Never Trumper Republicans bought in to a gigantic scam that the media and the Democrats ran on this blue wave business,” he said in addition to playing a media montage of such rhetoric. “They bought it hook, line and sinker. They thought there’s no chance, Trump is hated and despised, we’re getting out. And so they did. And when you lose 45 incumbents, don’t care who they are, because 98 percent of incumbents win reelection in the House, 98 percent. When 40 to 45 of your sitting Republicans get out of there, that presents another challenge, because those are open seats, become brand-new candidates on both sides. Incumbency is lost as a benefit.
“[Democrats] lost huge in the Senate,” the host continued. “What happened in the Senate last night is bigger than anybody knows right now because the Republicans that did retire and are gone were anti-Trump Republicans: Corker, Flake, McCain. They’re gone. They’re replaced by people who owe their futures to Donald Trump. Every Republican who retired is now realizing they could have won. … The Republican Party still doesn’t get it. They still haven’t figured it out. They’re still listening to the wrong people! They’re listening to the media.”

legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
November 11, 2018, 12:01:16 PM
You can't interpret the elections by counting the total number of votes, because a lot of Republican voters who live in deep blue states such as California and New York don't go out to vote (because even if they do, their votes won't matter). On the other hand, relatively fewer people live in the deep red states such as W.Va or Wyoming and so the Democrats don't face this issue.

Congressional districts are based on population so aside from gerrymandering (which tends to favor Republicans so Democrats need to have ~ +5% for parity) the total number of votes is a reasonable measure for the House elections. There are red districts in California and there are blue districts in Texas.
sr. member
Activity: 914
Merit: 252
November 11, 2018, 04:32:43 AM
#99
I see! So is the turn out for Republicans more impressive or less impressive if you use lower approval rating? lol. Good job arguing against yourself and understanding simple addition and subtraction.

What are you babbling about? Turnout was relatively high for both parties but Democrats outvoted Republicans by ~5 million. Trump's immigration hysteria backfired bigly. So much effort for 1 or 2 Senate seats and losses everywhere else. Or as you call it - impressive.

You can't interpret the elections by counting the total number of votes, because a lot of Republican voters who live in deep blue states such as California and New York don't go out to vote (because even if they do, their votes won't matter). On the other hand, relatively fewer people live in the deep red states such as W.Va or Wyoming and so the Democrats don't face this issue.
legendary
Activity: 3318
Merit: 2008
First Exclusion Ever
November 10, 2018, 08:30:05 PM
#98
I say "Hey! This approval rating has this average rate of loss, and the Democrats did just that number" (a
you reply (unsourced I might add) saying essentially "Yeah but, if his approval rating were LOWER he would have lost less seats!"

I took the numbers from the same article you linked to. I didn't say he would have lost less seats. It's just the average from past elections.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-midterm-elections-preview/

It is "more impressive" because the example showed an approval rating HIGHER than Trump had, and the average was 33 seats

Trumps ACTUAL approval rating at the time of election was actually about 10 points lower, 40%... meaning that in spite of having an approval rating LOWER than used in the average calculation, he still maintained the same number of seats as in the average... meaning that the Dems actually had less than average gains for an incumbent with his approval ratings.

Which doesn't make any sense because there is no linear correlation "lower rating -> more lost seats". Again, from the same article the two elections where the President's rating was 40% or less had losses of 12 and 30 seats, or 21 on average. Trump lost 35-37. So which is it - Trump is worse at presidenting than Obama and Dubya, or this rating-to-seats criteria is meaningless? I'm leaning towards both.

Its fine. You keep pretending like you never had any fault in logic here. That is pretty much all the left can do at this point. Fake it till you make it.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
November 10, 2018, 08:12:08 PM
#97
I say "Hey! This approval rating has this average rate of loss, and the Democrats did just that number" (a
you reply (unsourced I might add) saying essentially "Yeah but, if his approval rating were LOWER he would have lost less seats!"

I took the numbers from the same article you linked to. I didn't say he would have lost less seats. It's just the average from past elections.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-midterm-elections-preview/

It is "more impressive" because the example showed an approval rating HIGHER than Trump had, and the average was 33 seats

Trumps ACTUAL approval rating at the time of election was actually about 10 points lower, 40%... meaning that in spite of having an approval rating LOWER than used in the average calculation, he still maintained the same number of seats as in the average... meaning that the Dems actually had less than average gains for an incumbent with his approval ratings.

Which doesn't make any sense because there is no linear correlation "lower rating -> more lost seats". Again, from the same article the two elections where the President's rating was 40% or less had losses of 12 and 30 seats, or 21 on average. Trump lost 35-37. So which is it - Trump is worse at presidenting than Obama and Dubya, or this rating-to-seats criteria is meaningless? I'm leaning towards both.
legendary
Activity: 2926
Merit: 1386
November 10, 2018, 02:44:06 PM
#96
lower approval than what I stated with average results = even more impressive for Republicans (IE not an argument in support of your point)

I don't see how it's "impressive" that Republicans are failing to support their President, or failing to elect someone who would have a slightly wider appeal, whichever way you want to look at it. Low approval rating is the result of this failure, not the cause of it.

A presidential election year finds a lot of people voting straight party ticket, so many Congressmen and some Senators, up for election at that same time, find themselves  surprisingly in office only because they were in the winning POTUS's party. This is partly corrected in the mid terms.

Nine of the eleven candidates that Trump campaigned for won.
legendary
Activity: 3318
Merit: 2008
First Exclusion Ever
November 10, 2018, 01:32:32 PM
#95
lower approval than what I stated with average results = even more impressive for Republicans (IE not an argument in support of your point)

I don't see how it's "impressive" that Republicans are failing to support their President, or failing to elect someone who would have a slightly wider appeal, whichever way you want to look at it. Low approval rating is the result of this failure, not the cause of it.

I am very sorry your reading comprehension is so poor.

I say "Hey! This approval rating has this average rate of loss, and the Democrats did just that number" (a
you reply (unsourced I might add) saying essentially "Yeah but, if his approval rating were LOWER he would have lost less seats!"

It is "more impressive" because the example showed an approval rating HIGHER than Trump had, and the average was 33 seats

Trumps ACTUAL approval rating at the time of election was actually about 10 points lower, 40%... meaning that in spite of having an approval rating LOWER than used in the average calculation, he still maintained the same number of seats as in the average... meaning that the Dems actually had less than average gains for an incumbent with his approval ratings.

If you don't see the issue with your logic here by now, my explaining is not going to make anything better for you.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
November 10, 2018, 12:53:22 PM
#94
lower approval than what I stated with average results = even more impressive for Republicans (IE not an argument in support of your point)

I don't see how it's "impressive" that Republicans are failing to support their President, or failing to elect someone who would have a slightly wider appeal, whichever way you want to look at it. Low approval rating is the result of this failure, not the cause of it.
legendary
Activity: 3318
Merit: 2008
First Exclusion Ever
November 10, 2018, 10:14:02 AM
#93
I see! So is the turn out for Republicans more impressive or less impressive if you use lower approval rating? lol. Good job arguing against yourself and understanding simple addition and subtraction.

What are you babbling about? Turnout was relatively high for both parties but Democrats outvoted Republicans by ~5 million. Trump's immigration hysteria backfired bigly. So much effort for 1 or 2 Senate seats and losses everywhere else. Or as you call it - impressive.

Ok, sit down Timmy and I will explain it for you in simple words.

Orange man bad right? Ok so orange man, have approval under 45% yes?

Which is harder for orange man to keep more seats than past times of keeping seats, if orange man have 45% approval or 50% approval?

lower approval than what I stated with average results = even more impressive for Republicans (IE not an argument in support of your point)



At this point if you don't know how to add and subtract I am not sure I can help you any more than this.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
November 10, 2018, 08:45:48 AM
#92
I see! So is the turn out for Republicans more impressive or less impressive if you use lower approval rating? lol. Good job arguing against yourself and understanding simple addition and subtraction.

What are you babbling about? Turnout was relatively high for both parties but Democrats outvoted Republicans by ~5 million. Trump's immigration hysteria backfired bigly. So much effort for 1 or 2 Senate seats and losses everywhere else. Or as you call it - impressive.
legendary
Activity: 3318
Merit: 2008
First Exclusion Ever
November 10, 2018, 08:00:51 AM
#91

LOL. K.

"Average result, since 1970, for President’s Party in midterm when job approval is below 50% - 33 seat loss"

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-midterm-elections-preview/

Average flipped seats when approval is below 45%: 23

See you can pick any made-up criteria to make it look as bad as you want to.


I see! So is the turn out for Republicans more impressive or less impressive if you use lower approval rating? lol. Good job arguing against yourself and understanding simple addition and subtraction.
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