2018 USA Mid Terms! Red or Blue Waves?!? - page 6.

Flying Hellfish

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Quote from: TECSHARE on October 26, 2018, 07:57:05 AM

Quote from: Flying Hellfish on October 26, 2018, 07:41:06 AM

Early voting is setting records in all kinds of states. Early voting numbers are basically the same as the 2016 presidential election....

Does that help the dems or republicans?!

Traditionally early voting benefits Democrats, but every thing I have been reading is suggesting is there is potentially record turnout for Republican early voting, so we will see.

People are starting to get wise to the voter shenanigans and want to leave as little potential for fraud as possible by voting early (and more importantly first).

BTW, I will give you one last chance to put money on that "blue wave" Wink

Ya traditionally early and heavy turnout is a good sign for the dems in mid terms.

With the turn out so far being equal to that of a presidential year I don't think it's as good a sign for dems as it would be traditionally. I think the early turn out isn't really going to tell us much other than people are voting LOL.

I didn't know a wager was on offer! Define a blue wave, or IOW define the wager and I may be interested. I'm not interested in a large wager, nothing more than .01BTC but the terms would ultimately dictate how much or if I would wager.

TECSHARE

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Quote from: Flying Hellfish on October 26, 2018, 07:41:06 AM

Early voting is setting records in all kinds of states. Early voting numbers are basically the same as the 2016 presidential election....

Does that help the dems or republicans?!

Traditionally early voting benefits Democrats, but every thing I have been reading is suggesting is there is potentially record turnout for Republican early voting, so we will see.

People are starting to get wise to the voter shenanigans and want to leave as little potential for fraud as possible by voting early (and more importantly first).

BTW, I will give you one last chance to put money on that "blue wave" Wink

Flying Hellfish

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Early voting is setting records in all kinds of states. Early voting numbers are basically the same as the 2016 presidential election....

Does that help the dems or republicans?!

Spendulus

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Quote from: suchmoon on October 11, 2018, 03:58:49 PM

....
Of all the things that politicians like to take credit for, stock market - particularly after a 10-year bull run - is one of the most dangerous. A 15% correction would make those 401K voters very very angry.

I'm going out on a limb and saying the House remains red.

Call it a post Kav thing.

gembirdprivate

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Quote from: Flying Hellfish on October 05, 2018, 11:33:50 AM

Well with all the political pundits among us and the Mid Terms rapidly approaching I am curious how everyone see the House and Senate races panning out.

It looks to me like the Senate will stay Red and they might just pick up a couple seats giving them some breathing room! Looks like Hietkamp is underwater double digits so the red state might get that seat back (and shes a no on Kavanaugh which probably doesn't help her). Manchin is another tight race where he has a small lead but his vote on the Kavanaugh nom might sway voters one way or the other.

I haven't been watching to many other senate races so feel free to tell us about any more!

The early polls had a blue house but the Kavanaugh show seems to have energized the republican base. Will the base come down if Kavanaugh gets confirmed? Will the base get fired up if Kavanaugh gets voted down? The same question can be asked of the Dem base. Do they get energized if Kavanaugh gets confirmed. Do they cool off if he gets voted down or does Trumps antics with the Kavanaugh Circus give the dems enough energy regardless of the outcome on Kavanaugh?

It's pretty damn rare for a Presidents party to pick up house seats in the mid term, which voters are motivated enough pre and post Kavanaugh confirmation vote!

I absolutely agree that the Senate remains red, I have many friends who think so too.

squatz1

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Quote

Of all the things that politicians like to take credit for, stock market - particularly after a 10-year bull run - is one of the most dangerous. A 15% correction would make those 401K voters very very angry.

Oh yeah, without a doubt. This is really going to hurt him if the market REALLY slides down and those 401k voters start to revolt. It would kill most his talking points.

Quote

Trade war is going to start affecting a lot of American companies negatively this last quarter, China isn't backing down LOL. The smart money is taking profits before the shit hits the fan. An adviser to the Fed today predicted another recession in America by 2020 LOL and in fact mentioned that part of the reason the fed raised interest rates fairly quickly is to try and push that time out further as well as have a little cushion when it does happen to soften the blow.

Funny quote I heard once about recessions, it makes good sense here

"Economists have predicted nine of the past five recessions"

But yes, I do think we did have to raise the interest rates so if we were to have a recession in the next 5 years or so we're able to do something (instead of just looking at a no change dead 0 percent interest rate) Smart money keeps money in HODL, if you will!!!!!

Trying to time the market is one of the worst things people can try to do. Even institutions (mutual funds) can't beat simply following the market.

suchmoon

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Quote from: squatz1 on October 11, 2018, 03:24:20 PM

I think you have to zoom out of your lookings into the market, we're still up a gross amount since Trump took the office of the Presidency.

If we're able to recover past this drop, OR stay at this number -- we're going to see Republicans have a solid chance of fighting dems when it comes to holding the house. I call the voters that Trump needs the 401K voters (or any retirement plan for that matter) the people who are going to vote for whoever can make their retirement accounts grow, and as of right now that has been the Republicans in Congress and the Trump WH.

Of all the things that politicians like to take credit for, stock market - particularly after a 10-year bull run - is one of the most dangerous. A 15% correction would make those 401K voters very very angry.

Flying Hellfish

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Quote from: squatz1 on October 11, 2018, 03:24:20 PM

I think you have to zoom out of your lookings into the market, we're still up a gross amount since Trump took the office of the Presidency.

If we're able to recover past this drop, OR stay at this number --

Trade war is going to start affecting a lot of American companies negatively this last quarter, China isn't backing down LOL. The smart money is taking profits before the shit hits the fan. An adviser to the Fed today predicted another recession in America by 2020 LOL and in fact mentioned that part of the reason the fed raised interest rates fairly quickly is to try and push that time out further as well as have a little cushion when it does happen to soften the blow.

While its fair to say that it may just be a correction it is also very fair to argue that this may be a signal the market is responding to Trumps reckless spending and trade war.

To be fair a 5% drop in 2 days is premature to add to rally speeches but if it gets worse the dems will talk about this right up to the MT's!

squatz1

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Quote from: Flying Hellfish on October 10, 2018, 09:31:28 PM

Good timing for the dems, Kavanaughs ethics complaint has been referred for judicial review by SC Chief Justice Roberts to the 10th circuit court of appeals (Merrick Garlands Court, although he recused himself rightly so when the complaints first came up).

The bubble popped, the DOW dropped off a cliff today down 800 points.

Ford Motor Co. announced Trumps tariffs have cost the company 1 billion dollars so far.

Great talking points for the dems, while the president runs around encouraging chants of "lock her up" and mocking respected senator Diane Finestein in Pennsylvania.

I think you have to zoom out of your lookings into the market, we're still up a gross amount since Trump took the office of the Presidency.

If we're able to recover past this drop, OR stay at this number -- we're going to see Republicans have a solid chance of fighting dems when it comes to holding the house. I call the voters that Trump needs the 401K voters (or any retirement plan for that matter) the people who are going to vote for whoever can make their retirement accounts grow, and as of right now that has been the Republicans in Congress and the Trump WH.

Quote

No worries, next week Trump goes to Florida. A few strategically thrown paper towels will fix the midterms in a jiffy. And it's the Baja Alabama part of Florida so no pesky boricuas in sight.

As a side note, this made me laugh!

suchmoon

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Quote from: Flying Hellfish on October 10, 2018, 09:31:28 PM

Great talking points for the dems

No worries, next week Trump goes to Florida. A few strategically thrown paper towels will fix the midterms in a jiffy. And it's the Baja Alabama part of Florida so no pesky boricuas in sight.

Flying Hellfish

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Good timing for the dems, Kavanaughs ethics complaint has been referred for judicial review by SC Chief Justice Roberts to the 10th circuit court of appeals (Merrick Garlands Court, although he recused himself rightly so when the complaints first came up).

The bubble popped, the DOW dropped off a cliff today down 800 points.

Ford Motor Co. announced Trumps tariffs have cost the company 1 billion dollars so far.

Great talking points for the dems, while the president runs around encouraging chants of "lock her up" and mocking respected senator Diane Finestein in Pennsylvania.

Spendulus

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Quote from: suchmoon on October 10, 2018, 01:34:25 PM

...Republicans can hold on for a while due to gerrymandering and due to the structure of the Senate and the Electoral College but it's just a matter of time until they start losing big or have to change their policies to appeal to more than ~40% of the population.

The Democrats change their policies to appeal to fewer and fewer, let's see how that works out.

OgNasty

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Speaking strictly from a finance perspective, it's nice when there's a Republican-controlled Congress.

Quote from: https://money.cnn.com/2015/10/28/investing/stock-market-democrats-republicans/index.html

Stovall of S&P Capital IQ also took a look at the how the stock market does depending upon who controls Congress.
When Stovall sliced and diced the data that way since World War II, the best performance was when the nation had a Republican president with a Republican-controlled Congress.

Maybe you could add a poll to this thread?

TECSHARE

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Quote from: suchmoon on October 10, 2018, 02:55:57 PM

Quote from: TECSHARE on October 10, 2018, 01:46:24 PM

Yet those "demographics" that used to be hard core Democrat are fleeing to the Republican side in masses. You have some nerve talking about gerrymandering when virtually every type of voter fraud is evident from the Democratic party, especially in areas they control. Please do question this I would love to give you MUCH more detail on the subject.

They are already appealing to the majority of the population, the establishment, the media, and the left in general just have too much at stake to admit it publicly. Hillary was a sure thing too, remember?

Gerrymandering has nothing to do with voter fraud. It helps one political party to win more districts than it would in a more representative layout and on the current congressional map it overwhelmingly favors Republicans. Pennsylvania map is a good example: a ~ 50/50 state but Republicans won 12 of 18 House seats in the last election. That map has been redrawn and will likely cause Republicans to lose 2 or 3 seats this fall. North Carolina is nearly 50/50 as well and Republicans won 10 of 13 House seats. That map is still in effect for midterms but has been ruled unconstitutional so may cause Republicans to lose another 2 or 3 seats in 2020.

Hillary is not running in the midterms as far as I know. You might want to stay on topic - this board has a bona fide nazi for a moderator Grin

Yes, I am well aware of what gerrymandering is, thank you, the point being while somewhat detestable behavior, it at least still in a legal grey area. Furthermore you can bet your ass Democrats do it where they can manage as well.

Then on the other hand you have systemic voter fraud within the DNC, also documented disenfranchisement of their own party's true vote to try to push their establishment candidate, and they lost. All this is very much on topic, you just dislike the implications. You cry about a zit on the ass of the Republican party when the Democrats have a brain tumor big enough to push its eye out of the socket. This Kabuki theater of crybullying is failing, and unfortunately that is all that is left for them.

suchmoon

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Quote from: TECSHARE on October 10, 2018, 01:46:24 PM

Yet those "demographics" that used to be hard core Democrat are fleeing to the Republican side in masses. You have some nerve talking about gerrymandering when virtually every type of voter fraud is evident from the Democratic party, especially in areas they control. Please do question this I would love to give you MUCH more detail on the subject.

They are already appealing to the majority of the population, the establishment, the media, and the left in general just have too much at stake to admit it publicly. Hillary was a sure thing too, remember?

Gerrymandering has nothing to do with voter fraud. It helps one political party to win more districts than it would in a more representative layout and on the current congressional map it overwhelmingly favors Republicans. Pennsylvania map is a good example: a ~ 50/50 state but Republicans won 12 of 18 House seats in the last election. That map has been redrawn and will likely cause Republicans to lose 2 or 3 seats this fall. North Carolina is nearly 50/50 as well and Republicans won 10 of 13 House seats. That map is still in effect for midterms but has been ruled unconstitutional so may cause Republicans to lose another 2 or 3 seats in 2020.

Hillary is not running in the midterms as far as I know. You might want to stay on topic - this board has a bona fide nazi for a moderator Grin

TECSHARE

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Quote from: suchmoon on October 10, 2018, 01:34:25 PM

Voter turnout will decide the outcome. Democrats are typically absent at midterms - think of your typical lazy millennial yapping about democracy but "too busy" to exercise said democracy once every two years vs a retiree with nothing better to do.

This is something that most of the polls are very bad at predicting, even ones of "likely voters". Democrats could be +20 and still lose it if e.g. the weather is too cold on November 6, or they could be under water and still come out ahead like e.g. in Alabama last year.

Quote from: TECSHARE on October 06, 2018, 03:34:25 AM

The Democrat party will not quit until they are discredited for 2 generations. When you keep doubling down and losing, eventually the payment comes due, and the Democrats have built up quite a debt.

Not really. Demographic trends increasingly favor Democrats. Republicans can hold on for a while due to gerrymandering and due to the structure of the Senate and the Electoral College but it's just a matter of time until they start losing big or have to change their policies to appeal to more than ~40% of the population.

Yet those "demographics" that used to be hard core Democrat are fleeing to the Republican side in masses. You have some nerve talking about gerrymandering when virtually every type of voter fraud is evident from the Democratic party, especially in areas they control. Please do question this I would love to give you MUCH more detail on the subject.

They are already appealing to the majority of the population, the establishment, the media, and the left in general just have too much at stake to admit it publicly. Hillary was a sure thing too, remember?

suchmoon

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Voter turnout will decide the outcome. Democrats are typically absent at midterms - think of your typical lazy millennial yapping about democracy but "too busy" to exercise said democracy once every two years vs a retiree with nothing better to do.

This is something that most of the polls are very bad at predicting, even ones of "likely voters". Democrats could be +20 and still lose it if e.g. the weather is too cold on November 6, or they could be under water and still come out ahead like e.g. in Alabama last year.

Quote from: TECSHARE on October 06, 2018, 03:34:25 AM

The Democrat party will not quit until they are discredited for 2 generations. When you keep doubling down and losing, eventually the payment comes due, and the Democrats have built up quite a debt.

Not really. Demographic trends increasingly favor Democrats. Republicans can hold on for a while due to gerrymandering and due to the structure of the Senate and the Electoral College but it's just a matter of time until they start losing big or have to change their policies to appeal to more than ~40% of the population.

squatz1

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I can't ever remember a time when a President was so actively trying to create a division in his people. What's also curious is that it is working extremely well and the Dems have not figured out a counter to it.

You must've missed the entire Presidency of Barrack Obama then..... Hehe.

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The gloating over the Kavanaugh victory while it appears to play really well with the GOP base show's very little class

But attempting to ruin a man over a 35 year old sexual assault allegation is classful, right right.... We're all just happy that we were finally able to beat the whole sexual assault thing, get a conservative justice on the court, and do it all before midterms while the Democrats were trying to push it until after midterms.

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I think the GOP base is fired right up over the SC win, and are hoping RBG "retires" and Trump will get them 6-3 the next holy grail!

It looks like a pretty easy thing for the Republicans to keep the senate and hell at this point I wouldn't even be surprised if the GOP kept the house as well.

I think the house and senate will stay Republican at this point. Cool

Ah, something we agree on. You're still a commie bastard btw.

InvoKing

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Quote from: Flying Hellfish on October 08, 2018, 09:02:47 AM

I think the house and senate will stay Republican at this point. Cool

Donkeys will crush da house while elephants will break da senate. Well this isn't very important since the most important thing ever is to keep seeing the big kid making America great again like it was before 1492. Good ol' days

Spendulus

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Quote from: Flying Hellfish on October 08, 2018, 09:02:47 AM

Trump lies at republican rally by making up bogus name of bill... Republicans eat this shit up are they not able to use something like google?
....

"lies about the name of a bill" Huh

??

I've never been under the impression that when Trump talks he is trying to get every little thing technically right. He'll exaggerate, make up pet phrases for stuff, all kinds of things. And he'll make mistakes. This is no big deal but is it lying? Gee...

Would not surprise me if the goose steppers take the House.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVTQRRnpMgc

Topic: 2018 USA Mid Terms! Red or Blue Waves?!? - page 6. (Read 1692 times)