Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 18. (Read 7243 times)

looking like a bull trap for miners coming up soon.

we are at 11 cents a th ½ ing drops it to 5.5 cents a th which puts a lot of miners in the red.

s19xp would be 140 x 5.5 cents  = $7.70 earned

and 80 kwatts at 6 cents = $4.80 burned

thus 7.70- 4.80 = $2.90 profit.

but a s19 at 100 th

would be

5.50 earned an 4.80 burned = 70 cents profit


So basically you need to be at the s19 xp level with under 6 cent power. at current price.

Thanks for sharing. I understand that it starts to be complicated for average miners, whereas for small ones it is almost impossible.



I understand that feeling. I sometimes think about that, and about some things I could have done and didn't do. I don't regret it, I made the decisions that I thought were appropriate at the time. He could have really done things differently, and today he might not even be rich, but life had taken a different path, without a doubt.

We were splitting 30k profit  a month almost all of 2021.

Our best month since sept 2022 was 19k in dec 2023.

Now Ltc and doge has picked up a lot
and kawpow has picked up a lot

and btc is meh
it is less than dec 2023.

We are on track to do 20k four way split.

quite frankly it has been a lot of work way way too much for the profits I made.

I am not getting younger (67) and I am getting tired mining.

If i just posted and took signature money since 2012 holding only 10percent of those coins I would be wealthy which I am not.

But for a miner of your size, isn't mining productive?
Are you actually making less profit or are you making more or less the same profit?

when btc was 68k in 2021 diff was tiny.

21t vs 79t

S17 pro was 33 watts on low s19 xp 19 watts

so miners were over 40cents a th near the april peak in 2021.

to be there price needs to be insane  after the 1/2 ing maybe over 400k

I do not see that rally happening in the next forty days.

It's 68k now, but ya, honestly, nothing is going to be good enough to make post halving even close to 13 cents/th profit, the best we could hope for is for the price to keep climbing up slowly and hopefully a 20-30 difficulty drop 1-2 months after the halving, 11 cents would be like a dream after the halving, I will be more than happy with 10 cents post halving but well prepared for 5-6 cents /th.

As for the current difficulty status, it seems like we are still lagging.


Goes against my expectations but I am happier about being wrong than right.

yeah has to be 75% or more are in the hands of under a dozen companies .

as nice as 67k seems we are still not as good as it was in December. we were 13 cents a th which was enough price to handle the 1/2 ing we are at 11.26 cents a th not good enough for the 1/2 ing

Those small players you talking about are sitting on the sideline, they can't play the chicken game, I am talking about those large players who are equally strong, I am under the assumption that at least 80% of the total hashrate is controlled by a few large firms, we the average joes are just nothing, those large players are the ones playing the game of chicken, they all know that the market post halving as is won't be able to facilitate all of them the same way it does today.

If Rioat expands it would be at the expense of Mara, Core or Bitfarms, and the same thing applies to all of them, crushing the small players isn't going to solve the issue for all of them, it's like 50 hungry people sharing the same cake and 3 cats are eating the little pieces that drop on the ground (the small miners are the cats), half the cake is going to disappear, there is no way all of them will be able to eat the same amount unless some of them leave the table or start eating less, it's going to be a cold war between all of these large players and we the cats will just keep watching till some of them leave the table so we can go back to collecting the little topping the drops on the floor.

Yeah they grind away at guys like me. we have a good power deal but only a 320kwatt transformer.

SO by the end of the year we will struggle unless we get a new transformer.

The only difference in the image is that they both drive nearly the same car, in reality it would look in some instances like a 40t truck plowing through skateboarders. And adding more details, one has his private ambulance ready nearby (investors with deep enough pockets and with a mind that reads let's throw now another 5 million, we might not get back the 10 millions spent before but there is a chance we might turn this 5 into 6).
As for intimidation, Riot has played its cards, they have stated they have the money and the deals to bring 100Exa online by 2025, I wonder how that would have played with Bitcoins still in the 30k range and no relief in sight, probably a lot would have indeed blinked.


Turned positive two days into it, based on the last week pace we could realistically see a 1 or maybe 2% , but right now it takes only one lazy block and it could go negative again. Nothing extraordinary to see I guess, I'm waiting for the fireworks in two months.

So we will continue to work the assumption that we are now even, we had a massive increase, followed by a 3% drop, I'll quote myself again


What is the expected outcome for this epoch without variance? 2-3% increase, it's now at -2% so we are 4% off but ya, it's just way too early to judge.

Another major factor that makes any prediction from now till a few months post halving very difficult, you just can't guess what those large U.S miners would do, you may think it's common sense that 2 months before the halving nobody in their right mind would be buying expensive gears that are going to have a 50% drop in profit, or let's say to their best scenario a 30% drop (assuming others will shutdown).

So idealistically, we should start seeing hashrate drop or stay the same till the halving, then after that, a slow decline, but on the other hand, these large players could be swapping their S19s or whatever gears to S21 or M60s, which will still take the difficulty to a higher level, and I believe the latter scenario is more likely, I think these large players are playing the "game of chicken" (Google that term if you are not familiar with it or check the image below if you are lazy)



image source: https://www.toledoblade.com/opinion/editorial-cartoons/2018/06/20/Maumee-Dearest-A-game-of-chicken/stories/20180619146

mmmm

-3%

62k

fees on the rise.

viabtc was showing 10 cents a th.

but back in dec 2023 we touched 13 cents a th.

We need the hit the 1/2 ing closer to 14 cents a th vs 10 cents a th

we will soon know if miners are fully bull or bear.

We sure are getting what you hoped for phill, it's 2011 blocks already so only 5 blocks to go (50 minutes give or take for difficulty adjustment) and the current pace is

So 3%~ is guaranteed at this stage, with the current BTC price of $61,447 this is going to be a good epoch for miners, not as great as when fees skyrocketed a while ago, but certainly better than the start of the current epoch.

could be correct. but I do like that we are around -3%


I still like to think it is under and overclocking since the is in hand and making an s19xp up and down 15% is easy peasy.

next jump will smoke after this one  + 5-9% with a simple over clocking of a really large set of farms.

and even with a 62.5K price - 2.85%

'quote
Latest Block:   832466  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.1442%  (1875 / 1930.12 expected, 55.12 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                            
Next Difficulty:   between 79534957362376 and 79545386002067
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.6801% and -2.6674%
Previous Retarget:   February 15, 2024 at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 6:56 PM  (in 1d 0h 8m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 6:59 PM  (in 1d 0h 11m 26s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 49m 44s and 14d 9h 52m 38s

quote'



Latest Block:   832571  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.9013%  (1980 / 2043.32 expected, 63.32 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                           
Next Difficulty:   between 79328143356016 and 79328885341071
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.9332% and -2.9323%
Previous Retarget:   February 15, 2024 at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 7:51 PM  (in 0d 6h 11m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 7:51 PM  (in 0d 6h 11m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 44m 27s and 14d 10h 44m 39s

I believe I did make this claim a while ago that anything above 3% increase in any epoch is not realistic, assuming the current hashrate is 560 then every 1% is going to take 5.6EH, but even a while ago when 1% was 5exahash we are talking about 5,000,000TH, if you assume it's all brand new latest gen 200th~ gears, then that's 25,000 gears, so 3 times that would give you 75,000.

Convert that to money and you get 75,000*$ 5000 = $375,000,000 (not counting tax, transport and all the other stuff)
Convert that to electricity and you get 75,000*MW0.0035   = 262MW

jump to 4% and you get 500M dollars and 350MW which is 100k gears.

I can't be convinced that there is any solid possibility that suggests the world is able to sustain such an increase in two weeks, 100k top-of-the-line mining gears is just not possible, there will always be a bottleneck somewhere, be it in the manufacturing of these gears, transporting them, the cost, the power, the time, the delivery, the paperwork, it just doesn't matter, I just don't think it's doable.

Now going back to the 8% 'fluke', we could to some degree assume that 3% was real, and 5% was variance, this means if we have a real 3% increase this epoch as well and 0% variance we should drop by 2%.

This epoch won't be variance free, we may have a 1% variance and end with -1% or -3%, but if we assume not much variance then anything around -2% is very realistic and suggests a massive increase of hashrate by nearly half a billion dollar worth.

Amazing we are just over -3.13%

and price is 57k up from 51.700

a decent turn of events.

but still not there yet for the miners.

we need to be at 13 cents a th now and we are at 9.07 cents a th

so that the drop to 6.5-7 cents a th after 1/2ing does not result is destruction of a lot of hash.

Neah, I think we're going to see them even lower.
This is not a spike that everyone sees like a pump and dump and more as the first step of a breakthrough after the havening so everybody is keeping their coins tight, at most consolidate or move a bit between wallet exchange but no action as in purchasing stuff and ordinal minting is at it's lowest. Once we deal with the ton of consolidation transactions that are waiting we're going to drop to 3-4 sat/vb where inscribing useless kitties and monkeys becomes again cheaper to throw money at it.

Anyhow, I think we dodged a few bullets
- we're going to hit maybe 60k before the halvening, imagine being at 30k and suddenly the rewards goes in half
- ordinal madness is done, imagine a 30% hashrate drop after the halvening and blocks coming for 3 weeks at 100 a day with 2GB of mempool

So, it might be rather uneventful compared to what we might have had


Two days left, we might get below (above?) -2%

Maybe not yet.
Fees are low because there are few transactions. In turn, the price goes up because there are few people wanting to sell.

So, unless folks start selling to make money at this stage, things should stay that way.
I believe that a lot of people are waiting for the next ATH.

I wonder if fees are going to rise along with this very solid price jump.  fees are steady and under 0.50 btc a block

To me it seems that a reduction of -2% more normal, than 5 or 6, after such a big rise in the previous cycle.

But, the sample is still small (for the moment we are analyzing). We need to see how another cycle goes in order to draw better conclusions.

If in a third cycle we have a stagnation of variation, it is a sign that we have had a real increase in power of about 5%. But if the variation is higher, then the increase was greater. If it's lower, then it's weird that +8% spike.