Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 18. (Read 7776 times)

I do wonder if those times will not also be over soon, for sure the market is not mature enough, not at all as we look as today's drop and the swings in the last weeks but  in the long run seems to me like it will turn into the same thing as gold, and days of wild trading back in forth 10% would be a thing of the past


Mikey did the probabilities a few pages back, things do happen otherwise you would have days with 144,143,143,142,141 blocks and so on as people are adding more gear and block finding is the perfect reflection of added hashrate!
Just like this current stats:


doesn't mean that suddenly ~500k S19 are offline!

We had a - 3.90 % then a + 7.33 % , now a - 2.90 % and a + 5.79 %.
Once you break them in months average and not two weeks periods it stops being that amazing.

I wonder how it is that every 14 days there are such significant movements (5% I think is a lot)!?
I don't see people turning machines on and off every week, to the point of influencing the hash by 5% (up or down).
If this correction occurred every two months, for example, I would understand. Now, this movement is almost weekly.

Is there any logical explanation?

Guessing difficulty has been only getting harder, it's even worse nowadays since we are approaching the halving, you just can't tell what people have in mind, but a 5% is a whole lot of gears and power, I still find it hard to believe that it was not a fluke which would correct itself this epoch.

Mind you, even post halving we would still see unrealistic changes like we did the last halving, it would take a few epochs for things to settle down.

The one thing certain is that anybody paying above 5-6 cents and doesn't have S19 or better, is going to face some serious issues.

a huge 5.6% move.

or was last variance wrong. and is this variance wrong.

-3 last time should be -1

that make this 5.6 like 3.6 and tack on over variance of 1 or 2.

so we really added 1 or 2% to the network.

Could be.  As of today at 72k. which will hurt miners in 30 days. the ½ ing is about 34 days.

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edit
almost there close to +6%

A miner (hardware) is more efficient, it is not limited to the chip having more capacity or using less energy.
Efficiency also comes from the chip's ability to better manage energy. To be able to reduce its temperature more effectively, or not to heat up as much.

Honestly, when I say that there seem to be no improvements, it's because I don't see an investment in the development of new chips. But perhaps manufacturers don't earn that much to allow them to carry out this laboratory study.


For example, what is the difference between the BM1385 chip and the BM1398 chip?

Yeah buying the s21 or t21 could be dumb as fuck or smarter than Einstein.

Maybe we just climb up past 80k 90k 100k 110k 200k  300k and a th makes 50cents so your 200th unit is earning $100 a day by the summer of 2024.

That would be wild as fuck.

Ya, I used stock settings as a reference, it would take a while for mods to work well on the Antminer S21 to figure out how low can the w/t go, it could be 15w or anything in that range unless they are already underclocked by Bitmain which doesn't make sense, but my guess is -- it would be a similar drop that S17 had percentage-wise.

As for the bull trap scenario -- it's possible, BTC likes to do things differently every cycle, this is the first cycle where we hit a new ATH before the halving, the majority of people were waiting for the halving to happen and then bull, many other people including myself thought that this time would be different in a negative way, i.e, it would not moon in the same halving year but rather middle or late next year, but what do we know? BTC does what BTC wants to do.

Btc is ath high = bull 🐂

½ ing in 38 days = trap 🪤

If you purchased  a miner right now because it is bull and btc goes flat or retreats you will likely lose

mining. you got trapped.

if you buy a miner now and we moon 🌕 you will not be bull trapped.

so buying gear to mine today has the added risk of a bull trap.

and lets say you buy one and we drift to 75k and do flat we as a buyer at any price under that you are okay.

but a miner could be in a lot of trouble if we stay under 80k for a long time.

OK, I have seen a reference to a "bull trap". Can someone explain what that really means and how it works?

I under clocked s17pro to 42th and pulled as little as 1300 watts that was 31 watts.

So far no one has shown me an s21 at 3500 watts I have seen a

200 th s21 doing 3575 watts = 17.875 watts a th

so we went from 31 to 17.875 that is a 42.5% improvement

 2019 to 2024 five years time we are better.

BTW Fuzzy is correct that more efficiency does not help miners much.

Well actually going as far back as 4-5 years then it's 2019 era, the most efficient publicly available mining gear at the time was Antminer S17 which did 56th for 2500w, this puts it 44.6W/th, fast-forward to today, we got Antminer S21 which does 200th for 3500W, which is 17.5th, that's a little over 60% improvement in efficiency which is HUGE, one would also assume that mining gears manufacturers have already acquired more experience and skills to make the overall production cost lower.

We may not get another 60% improvement in the coming 4 to 5 years, at least not on a single-chip level, but if they can make them cheap enough, they can always stack more chips and run them at lower speeds to achieve better efficiency.

fomo is not here for mining.

we are at 12 cents a th we were at 13 cents a th due to high fees back in December.

The month of December was better for mining btc then it is right now. as we had 3 coins of fees per block
we now have only 0.30 coins of fees each block

and the hammer is coming in under 40 days. (1/2 ing)

Meanwhile the diff is jumping over 6%. I smell a bull trap

Have we now hit a new "All Time High" on BTC price (roughly $72.5K)?

That seems like it will spur mining effort, at least until the halving.

Bullshit.

Only a few years ago eff was 30-40w/T, now is less than 20w/T That is hardly 'little' progress. Miner efficiency is fixed by the chip node size used and that is already at the bleeding edge.

really heating up


fees are going up a little.

Well, the miner can always enter another market niche: energy sales.

I see the point! I was thinking about smaller miners. It is true that they needed a smaller investment, but their profitability is also lower. That would make it still complicated.

Either way, I continue to believe that the solution is for miner manufacturers to improve their efficiency. Honestly, I think there has been little progress in this regard in the last 4/5 years.

solar is good and helpful it is not a full solution.

and it sucks in many places.

 
Ireland too cloudy
Seattle Washington USA too cloudy

Many spots it sucks.  As I illustrated it is okay in at least two USA states buy not every one.

As for subsidies many of what I call a subsidy is just fair treatment.

ie a straight 1 for 1 swap for your excess power is fairly fair.

Some states do that.

Yet some states are fuck you and just allow the power company to take all excess for no cost to them.

Solar and wind and waterfalls will not fix all power needs.

A working fusion reactor would solve energy issues for 1000's of years if we ever see one as many companies would be against it.

Solar is not a solution for everyone you get 1498.5 kWh/m2 per Trenton (picked one random city in NJ) Wien gets 1112.5 kWh/m2 and Berlin 976.4 kWh/m2 .
But just a few miles east of El Paso 2865.1 kWh/m2 !


So basically the state subsidizing energy that would be to expensive to be viable., you can't call that a solution when you're actually burning money in my opinion!

But one thing about that:

Batteries for even personal use are too costly , and trying to deploy batteries at large scale is just stupid, there are countries where no amount of batteries will help, we have a term here dunkelflaute, it happens usually for 1 to 3 days, sometimes even worse for almost five days when there is not enough sun and no wind blowing do due atmospheric conditions, so what are you going to do, build 3 times the farm's worth of  battery storage?

Anyhow, seems like it's again up in the middle of the period:

So it might erase the drop and gain 1%, 11cents per th, after halving 5.5, this is early 2023 levels so...who's taking a bet of no drop in hashpower below this level after the halving?

as mikeywith says making your own energy can be costly.

in the USA some states suck and some states are good.

I am in NJ pretty good for solar. Pennsylvania is very good.

You could do a 2 megawatt solar build  (max size for discounts) on the cheap, but the cheap is a lot if lucky 2 million mostly financed with many incentives. what does that generate per hour around 400kwatts

what is that in miners about 120 s19k pro units which is around two hundred k all in a 50k box

so 250k in miner setup.  and you need a site for the solar. in PA maybe 750k

so 3million to run 120 x 120 = 14400 th at five cent after ½ ing that is 720 a day or  250k income for 3 million in loans that is around 8% return plus your incentives. So it is just good enough in a very good state like pennsylvania or new jersey.

Energy production is a complex subject. It's neither cheap nor easy. The only reason why electric companies can offer "cheap" rates is because they produce energy in bulk. Setting aside all taxes and other unrelated costs, you need to produce a significant amount of energy just to break even. It doesn't matter how you produce the energy—whether from the sun or wind—you can only generate a limited amount at a given time. For the majority of the day, you will need to rely on power from the grid.

Storing electricity is more expensive than producing it. Battery technology is lagging, so you can't simply produce 240 kWh and use it throughout the entire 24-hour period. If you require 240 kWh per day, you must assume it's only viable for 4-5 hours, meaning you'll need to sell it to the company and then repurchase it.

If the company sells you 1 kWh for 10 cents and buys yours for 5 cents, then you'll need to do some calculations.

For example, if you require 100 kWh every hour during the 4 hours when your solar/wind system is producing energy, you need to generate 40 kWh for your use and 400 kWh to sell to the grid. At 5 cents per kWh, you have a daily credit of 400 * 0.05 = $20.

Then, when your solar panels or wind turbines aren't producing anything for the remaining 20 hours, you'll need to purchase 200 kWh at 10 cents, costing you $20. In other words, you break even; you don't owe the company anything.

However, this means you must invest in a system capable of producing 5 times your actual needs. That's a significant amount of money to invest. Of course, there could be other incentives for running solar, such as tax benefits. If your country/state encourages on-grid solar, they may buy from you at 4 cents and sell to you at 5 cents during the night (not sure if anybody does that, just speculating). It all depends on your location. But in general, building your own energy infrastructure is complicated and expensive.