2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 21.

philipma1957

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Quote

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   829661 (10 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   110.0058% (1086 / 987.22 expected, 98.78 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72
Next Difficulty:   between 81369055774156 and 83115003780222
Next Difficulty Change:   between +7.7705% and +10.0829%
Previous Retarget:   February 2, 2024 at 10:35 AM (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 4:01 AM (in 5d 20h 54m 5s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 10:31 AM (in 6d 3h 24m 19s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 17h 26m 18s and 12d 23h 56m 31s

still whaling

mikeywith

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Quote from: stompix on February 08, 2024, 01:36:15 PM

10% is still madness ?

It still is, we talking roughly 50EH or 60EH of new gear which I think is not possible either, we are half way into this epoch, I think we would still drop.

joker_josue

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Quote from: stompix on February 08, 2024, 01:36:15 PM

10% is still madness ?
I expected it to drop like a stone in the next few days but seems not slowing that much down, in the last 24 hours we had 148, 24 hour before 159 blocks, I know S21 are being put online everywhere but are they really that many?

Do we have any new equipment being tested that has not yet been announced? Something that will really "revolutionize" the market?

Well, this "revolutionizing the market" part is already a very high expectation on my part. Tongue

philipma1957

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Quote from: stompix on February 08, 2024, 01:36:15 PM

Quote from: joker_josue on February 04, 2024, 05:13:59 AM

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined. Cool

Probabilities and luck are always paying games with human minds!
I'm watching the races right now and it's the 8th favorite under 5/4 so 2.25 odds to get trashed in a row, I almost feel tempted to put a bet on the last horse of the day without even knowing his time form because we must have at least one winning, right, after so many loses!

Same with blocks, if you're paying the minimum fee but you're in a hurry get ready, for sure the next block will be half an hour late! Grin

Quote from: mikeywith on February 03, 2024, 05:38:50 PM

121% in a single epoch is against physics and economics, noway on earth it's going to keep the pace, we will end up with a small increase of 2-3% IMO.

we all knew 121% was out of discussion but..

Quote from: mikeywith on February 03, 2024, 05:38:50 PM

@stompix, the halving is going to be brutal regardless,

I have the luxury of not caring that much anymore, even if I start losing money the growth has made up for it , I'm in a "bring it on, show me the worse" mode.
But the rest, I don't ant to be a miner with 100+ asics on more than 6 cents two months from now!
With one exception, if it's not my money but investors in that gear, then I couldn't care less also!

well six cents has basically almost always worked. i am interested in seeing what it does.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: joker_josue on February 04, 2024, 05:13:59 AM

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined. Cool

Probabilities and luck are always paying games with human minds!
I'm watching the races right now and it's the 8th favorite under 5/4 so 2.25 odds to get trashed in a row, I almost feel tempted to put a bet on the last horse of the day without even knowing his time form because we must have at least one winning, right, after so many loses!

Same with blocks, if you're paying the minimum fee but you're in a hurry get ready, for sure the next block will be half an hour late! Grin

Quote from: mikeywith on February 03, 2024, 05:38:50 PM

121% in a single epoch is against physics and economics, noway on earth it's going to keep the pace, we will end up with a small increase of 2-3% IMO.

we all knew 121% was out of discussion but..

Quote from: mikeywith on February 03, 2024, 05:38:50 PM

@stompix, the halving is going to be brutal regardless,

I have the luxury of not caring that much anymore, even if I start losing money the growth has made up for it , I'm in a "bring it on, show me the worse" mode.
But the rest, I don't ant to be a miner with 100+ asics on more than 6 cents two months from now!
With one exception, if it's not my money but investors in that gear, then I couldn't care less also!

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   829248 (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   113.0745% (673 / 595.18 expected, 77.82 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72
Next Difficulty:   between 80741089837944 and 85473024468320
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.9388% and +13.2061%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 10:35 AM (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 14, 2024 at 7:44 PM (in 8d 5h 57m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 15, 2024 at 12:58 PM (in 8d 23h 11m 36s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 9h 8m 57s and 13d 2h 23m 25s

still very high 13% is massive.

joker_josue

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Quote from: mikeywith on February 05, 2024, 05:15:57 PM

Obviously, to repeat again, these are not 100% accurate figures, but it's the only way to make a calculated/educated guess, many if not most large pools publish their "actual" hashrate, which also isn't 100% accurate since they use the same logic to figure out the individual miners hashrate, so the end result is all quite the same.

Thanks for the clarification. Wink

I think I will add this information to the data for the next cycle. I just have to see how it gets better.

mikeywith

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Quote from: joker_josue on February 05, 2024, 03:58:29 PM

Why divide by 600?

Because the hashrate result you are going to get is going to be the number of hashes without a time unit, which is hard to understand, so you would need to convert it to hashes per unit time, which in this example = seconds, since the expected block time is 10 mins, that gives you 600 seconds.

the final result you get is going to be represented in hashes/second, which is going to be a huge number, you are going to have to divide it by 1000000000000000000 to get the Exahash (commonly used in this thread and most places) if you want the PH representation you divide it by 1000000000000000

Quote

The "difficulty" is the difficulty number of the respective cycle, right?

Correct.

Here is an example of the last 24 hours hashrarte, in the last 24 hours, 157 blocks were found, the current difficulty is 75502165623893.72, so the formula is

Code:

((157/144) * 75502165623893.72 * 2^32 )/600/1000000000000000000

The result is 589EH

if you check any hashrate chart it would be within that figure.

Obviously, to repeat again, these are not 100% accurate figures, but it's the only way to make a calculated/educated guess, many if not most large pools publish their "actual" hashrate, which also isn't 100% accurate since they use the same logic to figure out the individual miners hashrate, so the end result is all quite the same.

joker_josue

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Quote from: mikeywith on February 05, 2024, 03:36:31 PM

(blocks solved per x time/expected number of blocks x time) * difficulty * 2^32 )/600

If x you trying for is 1 day, then
(blocks solved in this day/144) * difficulty * 2^32 )/600

144 comes from 1440 mins in a day / 10 mins which is the expected block time.

Of course, the smaller the timeframe the less accurate the answer is.

Why divide by 600?
The "difficulty" is the difficulty number of the respective cycle, right?

I will be able to do this in half a cycle file, with these calculations, since I don't have to collect more data than I have. Roll Eyes

mikeywith

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Quote from: joker_josue on February 05, 2024, 03:23:24 PM

Can you tell me how the calculations are made? What information are they based on?

(blocks solved per x time/expected number of blocks x time) * difficulty * 2^32 )/600

If x you trying for is 1 day, then
(blocks solved in this day/144) * difficulty * 2^32 )/600

144 comes from 1440 mins in a day / 10 mins which is the expected block time.

Of course, the smaller the timeframe the less accurate the answer is.

joker_josue

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Quote from: philipma1957 on February 05, 2024, 09:17:55 AM

it is a mere estimate based on the difficulty and blocks made against it.

we are near 600eh.

Thanks.
Maybe I'll add this information to my analysis table that I'm doing. I have to think about it and the best way to do it.

Can you tell me how the calculations are made? What information are they based on?

DaveF

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Crypto Swap Exchange

Quote from: mikeywith on February 03, 2024, 05:38:50 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 03, 2024, 04:06:46 PM

121% is truly a magnificent number. It will kill my mining if we do 20% jumps. But I can see us going way past 800eh by apr 1 2024.

which I do not think is possible. But what do I know. Not much

121% in a single epoch is against physics and economics, noway on earth it's going to keep the pace, we will end up with a small increase of 2-3% IMO.

There are probably a bunch of people giving older gear that was off one last run before they sell it after the 1/2ing.
Yes you could probably buy the BTC at a better rate, but if it's there and idle might as well turn it on and get some BTC.

Goes against logic, but I have seen it with my own eyes. There is NO possible way a T17 can make any BTC with $0.06 power but there are a bunch that were on since mid January in the colo that have been off for months.

-Dave

philipma1957

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Quote from: joker_josue on February 05, 2024, 08:40:31 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on February 05, 2024, 08:02:48 AM

~~

How do you know the total hash power being used on the network?
Is there any source of information that has the record by day or block?

it is a mere estimate based on the difficulty and blocks made against it.

we are near 600eh.

https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/hashrate-chart

So 10% is 60eh

It is always a ballpark number . Very unlikely to be a prefect estimate.

but the 600eh is maybe 570-630eh range so ten percent is

57-63 eh gain.

joker_josue

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Quote from: philipma1957 on February 05, 2024, 08:02:48 AM

~~

How do you know the total hash power being used on the network?
Is there any source of information that has the record by day or block?

philipma1957

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https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   829048 (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   113.8441% (473 / 415.48 expected, 57.52 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72
Next Difficulty:   between 79557588921358 and 86098122629700
Next Difficulty Change:   between +5.3713% and +14.0340%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 10:35 AM (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 14, 2024 at 5:43 PM (in 9d 9h 53m 37s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 15, 2024 at 5:39 PM (in 10d 9h 49m 45s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 7h 8m 25s and 13d 7h 4m 33s

Quote

A 13% gain seems too high basically we are doing 160 blocks a day vs 144 blocks.

If it holds true or drops to 10% it will be over 60eh of gear that is 300,000 s21's at 3,500 each

300,000 x 3500 = 1,050,000,000 just over 1 billion in gear added.

and 300,000 x 3.9 = 1,170,000 kwatts which is 1,170 mega watts per hour.

The average home in the US uses 1.2 kwatts per hour.

So this uptick could power close to 1 million USA homes.

joker_josue

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Quote from: mikeywith on February 04, 2024, 04:16:14 PM

Quote from: joker_josue on February 04, 2024, 05:13:59 AM

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined. Cool

This has nothing to do with actual hashrate, even at static speed time intervals between blocks follow exponential distribution.

With the mean being 10 mins, If you plot the half an hour in a cdf function you will get 4.98%, which means nearly 5% of all blocks are found after half an hour regardless of the hashrate.

Yes, I know that!

I just found it funny, that we had a lower difficulty than "necessary" for the current hash, and that we even had several blocks of advancement, only to see a block taking so long to come out.

Just a joke, but that's how probabilities work, sometimes faster and sometimes slower, no matter the hash.

philipma1957

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Quote from: mikeywith on February 04, 2024, 04:16:14 PM

Quote from: joker_josue on February 04, 2024, 05:13:59 AM

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined. Cool

This has nothing to do with actual hashrate, even at static speed time intervals between blocks follow exponential distribution.

With the mean being 10 mins, If you plot the half an hour in a cdf function you will get 4.98%, which means nearly 5% of all blocks are found after half an hour regardless of the hashrate.

yeah barring a massive network wide cut back of gear ⚙️.

you need to go to an hour wait to call it unusual.

and two hours to be a real longshot. two wait time is a very rare event.

an hour is 0.0025 or 1 time every 400 blocks

two hours is 0.00000625 or 1 time every 160,000 blocks.

There are qualifiers to those numbers as they assume the actual gear running is really running.

Ie if every miner in the world said fu I am turning off my gear to prove a point we could go a month with ease.

But we all know that there is no way every miner in the world will power off.

mikeywith

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Quote from: joker_josue on February 04, 2024, 05:13:59 AM

I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined. Cool

This has nothing to do with actual hashrate, even at static speed time intervals between blocks follow exponential distribution.

With the mean being 10 mins, If you plot the half an hour in a cdf function you will get 4.98%, which means nearly 5% of all blocks are found after half an hour regardless of the hashrate.

joker_josue

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Activity: 1722

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I end up finding this situation funny. We are +10% above the target pace. And then we have blocks taking half an hour to be mined. Cool

Quote from: https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   828872 (24 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   116.1621% (297 / 255.68 expected, 41.32 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   70343519904866.8
Current Difficulty:   75502165623893.72
Next Difficulty:   between 78534435562512 and 87942783188022
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.0161% and +16.4772%
Previous Retarget:   last Friday at 3:35 PM (+7.3335%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 14, 2024 at 4:50 PM (in 10d 6h 38m 17s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 16, 2024 at 2:49 AM (in 11d 16h 37m 38s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 1h 15m 3s and 13d 11h 14m 25s

mikeywith

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Quote from: philipma1957 on February 03, 2024, 04:06:46 PM

121% is truly a magnificent number. It will kill my mining if we do 20% jumps. But I can see us going way past 800eh by apr 1 2024.

which I do not think is possible. But what do I know. Not much

121% in a single epoch is against physics and economics, noway on earth it's going to keep the pace, we will end up with a small increase of 2-3% IMO.

Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 21. (Read 7264 times)