Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 19. (Read 7577 times)

when btc was 68k in 2021 diff was tiny.

21t vs 79t

S17 pro was 33 watts on low s19 xp 19 watts

so miners were over 40cents a th near the april peak in 2021.

to be there price needs to be insane  after the 1/2 ing maybe over 400k

I do not see that rally happening in the next forty days.

It's 68k now, but ya, honestly, nothing is going to be good enough to make post halving even close to 13 cents/th profit, the best we could hope for is for the price to keep climbing up slowly and hopefully a 20-30 difficulty drop 1-2 months after the halving, 11 cents would be like a dream after the halving, I will be more than happy with 10 cents post halving but well prepared for 5-6 cents /th.

As for the current difficulty status, it seems like we are still lagging.


Goes against my expectations but I am happier about being wrong than right.

yeah has to be 75% or more are in the hands of under a dozen companies .

as nice as 67k seems we are still not as good as it was in December. we were 13 cents a th which was enough price to handle the 1/2 ing we are at 11.26 cents a th not good enough for the 1/2 ing

Those small players you talking about are sitting on the sideline, they can't play the chicken game, I am talking about those large players who are equally strong, I am under the assumption that at least 80% of the total hashrate is controlled by a few large firms, we the average joes are just nothing, those large players are the ones playing the game of chicken, they all know that the market post halving as is won't be able to facilitate all of them the same way it does today.

If Rioat expands it would be at the expense of Mara, Core or Bitfarms, and the same thing applies to all of them, crushing the small players isn't going to solve the issue for all of them, it's like 50 hungry people sharing the same cake and 3 cats are eating the little pieces that drop on the ground (the small miners are the cats), half the cake is going to disappear, there is no way all of them will be able to eat the same amount unless some of them leave the table or start eating less, it's going to be a cold war between all of these large players and we the cats will just keep watching till some of them leave the table so we can go back to collecting the little topping the drops on the floor.

Yeah they grind away at guys like me. we have a good power deal but only a 320kwatt transformer.

SO by the end of the year we will struggle unless we get a new transformer.

The only difference in the image is that they both drive nearly the same car, in reality it would look in some instances like a 40t truck plowing through skateboarders. And adding more details, one has his private ambulance ready nearby (investors with deep enough pockets and with a mind that reads let's throw now another 5 million, we might not get back the 10 millions spent before but there is a chance we might turn this 5 into 6).
As for intimidation, Riot has played its cards, they have stated they have the money and the deals to bring 100Exa online by 2025, I wonder how that would have played with Bitcoins still in the 30k range and no relief in sight, probably a lot would have indeed blinked.


Turned positive two days into it, based on the last week pace we could realistically see a 1 or maybe 2% , but right now it takes only one lazy block and it could go negative again. Nothing extraordinary to see I guess, I'm waiting for the fireworks in two months.

So we will continue to work the assumption that we are now even, we had a massive increase, followed by a 3% drop, I'll quote myself again


What is the expected outcome for this epoch without variance? 2-3% increase, it's now at -2% so we are 4% off but ya, it's just way too early to judge.

Another major factor that makes any prediction from now till a few months post halving very difficult, you just can't guess what those large U.S miners would do, you may think it's common sense that 2 months before the halving nobody in their right mind would be buying expensive gears that are going to have a 50% drop in profit, or let's say to their best scenario a 30% drop (assuming others will shutdown).

So idealistically, we should start seeing hashrate drop or stay the same till the halving, then after that, a slow decline, but on the other hand, these large players could be swapping their S19s or whatever gears to S21 or M60s, which will still take the difficulty to a higher level, and I believe the latter scenario is more likely, I think these large players are playing the "game of chicken" (Google that term if you are not familiar with it or check the image below if you are lazy)



image source: https://www.toledoblade.com/opinion/editorial-cartoons/2018/06/20/Maumee-Dearest-A-game-of-chicken/stories/20180619146

mmmm

-3%

62k

fees on the rise.

viabtc was showing 10 cents a th.

but back in dec 2023 we touched 13 cents a th.

We need the hit the 1/2 ing closer to 14 cents a th vs 10 cents a th

we will soon know if miners are fully bull or bear.

We sure are getting what you hoped for phill, it's 2011 blocks already so only 5 blocks to go (50 minutes give or take for difficulty adjustment) and the current pace is

So 3%~ is guaranteed at this stage, with the current BTC price of $61,447 this is going to be a good epoch for miners, not as great as when fees skyrocketed a while ago, but certainly better than the start of the current epoch.

could be correct. but I do like that we are around -3%


I still like to think it is under and overclocking since the is in hand and making an s19xp up and down 15% is easy peasy.

next jump will smoke after this one  + 5-9% with a simple over clocking of a really large set of farms.

and even with a 62.5K price - 2.85%

'quote
Latest Block:   832466  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.1442%  (1875 / 1930.12 expected, 55.12 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                            
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                            
Next Difficulty:   between 79534957362376 and 79545386002067
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.6801% and -2.6674%
Previous Retarget:   February 15, 2024 at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 6:56 PM  (in 1d 0h 8m 33s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 6:59 PM  (in 1d 0h 11m 26s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 9h 49m 44s and 14d 9h 52m 38s

quote'



Latest Block:   832571  (15 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.9013%  (1980 / 2043.32 expected, 63.32 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                           
Next Difficulty:   between 79328143356016 and 79328885341071
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.9332% and -2.9323%
Previous Retarget:   February 15, 2024 at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 7:51 PM  (in 0d 6h 11m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 7:51 PM  (in 0d 6h 11m 30s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 44m 27s and 14d 10h 44m 39s

I believe I did make this claim a while ago that anything above 3% increase in any epoch is not realistic, assuming the current hashrate is 560 then every 1% is going to take 5.6EH, but even a while ago when 1% was 5exahash we are talking about 5,000,000TH, if you assume it's all brand new latest gen 200th~ gears, then that's 25,000 gears, so 3 times that would give you 75,000.

Convert that to money and you get 75,000*$ 5000 = $375,000,000 (not counting tax, transport and all the other stuff)
Convert that to electricity and you get 75,000*MW0.0035   = 262MW

jump to 4% and you get 500M dollars and 350MW which is 100k gears.

I can't be convinced that there is any solid possibility that suggests the world is able to sustain such an increase in two weeks, 100k top-of-the-line mining gears is just not possible, there will always be a bottleneck somewhere, be it in the manufacturing of these gears, transporting them, the cost, the power, the time, the delivery, the paperwork, it just doesn't matter, I just don't think it's doable.

Now going back to the 8% 'fluke', we could to some degree assume that 3% was real, and 5% was variance, this means if we have a real 3% increase this epoch as well and 0% variance we should drop by 2%.

This epoch won't be variance free, we may have a 1% variance and end with -1% or -3%, but if we assume not much variance then anything around -2% is very realistic and suggests a massive increase of hashrate by nearly half a billion dollar worth.

Amazing we are just over -3.13%

and price is 57k up from 51.700

a decent turn of events.

but still not there yet for the miners.

we need to be at 13 cents a th now and we are at 9.07 cents a th

so that the drop to 6.5-7 cents a th after 1/2ing does not result is destruction of a lot of hash.

Neah, I think we're going to see them even lower.
This is not a spike that everyone sees like a pump and dump and more as the first step of a breakthrough after the havening so everybody is keeping their coins tight, at most consolidate or move a bit between wallet exchange but no action as in purchasing stuff and ordinal minting is at it's lowest. Once we deal with the ton of consolidation transactions that are waiting we're going to drop to 3-4 sat/vb where inscribing useless kitties and monkeys becomes again cheaper to throw money at it.

Anyhow, I think we dodged a few bullets
- we're going to hit maybe 60k before the halvening, imagine being at 30k and suddenly the rewards goes in half
- ordinal madness is done, imagine a 30% hashrate drop after the halvening and blocks coming for 3 weeks at 100 a day with 2GB of mempool

So, it might be rather uneventful compared to what we might have had


Two days left, we might get below (above?) -2%

Maybe not yet.
Fees are low because there are few transactions. In turn, the price goes up because there are few people wanting to sell.

So, unless folks start selling to make money at this stage, things should stay that way.
I believe that a lot of people are waiting for the next ATH.

I wonder if fees are going to rise along with this very solid price jump.  fees are steady and under 0.50 btc a block

To me it seems that a reduction of -2% more normal, than 5 or 6, after such a big rise in the previous cycle.

But, the sample is still small (for the moment we are analyzing). We need to see how another cycle goes in order to draw better conclusions.

If in a third cycle we have a stagnation of variation, it is a sign that we have had a real increase in power of about 5%. But if the variation is higher, then the increase was greater. If it's lower, then it's weird that +8% spike.

2% variance in a whole epoch has a chance of 18.42%, mind that given the K (the shape parameter) is constant the variance in either direction would yield the same result, although in my previous code the code would get the wrong result if you enter -2 instead of 2 in the percent parameter given this line


removing the 1 - and changing the line to


Would work fine for negative % but obviously not for positive, I could add a simple function to check the value and format the result accordingly, but I don't think it's needed.




Using your logic 2% is 1 in 5.426, so two consecutive events would be 1 in 30.72, that is 3.25% in percentage terms.

But then, this is based on the assumption that in the second epoch (the current one for our case) is indeed affected by 2% or more variance, but if we assume that the previous epoch had a 2% luck, then his epoch would end up with -2% change while having 0% variance because the expect variance is 0%.

if we do indeed end up with a -4% which is 2% variance then that's 3.25%, however, we have no way of knowing what the heck is going on, 2016 blocks make a very small sample, if Satoshi made the difficult adjustment twice a year, we would have enough blocks to guess with.

With the size of 6 months' worth of blocks, the probability would be

1>% = 5.2%
2>% = 0.06%
3>% =0.00007% (almost never)

VS 2 weeks' worth of blocks

1>% = 32.4%
2>% = 18.4%
3>% = 9%

With the 2 weeks epochs, you can't be too sure that this epoch isn't having a 3% variance since 9% is relatively a huge figure, if we have diff adjustments only twice a year, then you could almost always assume that variance is never above 2%, in fact anything above 1.5% drops to below 0.7% so ya, assuming no epoch has a 1.5% variance would be a safe thing to do and you would really tell how much hashpower was added or left, but with two weeks worth of blocks even 5% variance has a good 1.3% chance of happening, so there is nothing you can do to safely eliminate a 5% variance, let alone 2% that happens nearly 20% of the time.

It's always a mix of variance. down clocking , overclocking , upgrades. Power shortages. internet outages. bankrupt companies, natural disasters.  Lastly government interference.   To do a +8 and now a -5 is a very big swing.



I forgot to mention.

cents per th. we were at 13 cents a th in December we are now at 8 cents a th

some may shut down due to that.


back to luck if you want to argue let jump was 3% extra luck

and this jump is 3% less luck.

you get .09 x .09 = 0.0081 or 1 in 120 chance.

it is possible as the time period is 4 weeks x 120 = every 480 weeks which is 1 Time in 9+ years.


more likely variance was +2% and then -2%

Mike plug in 2%  and that is more like a 1 in 4 shot. then back to back 1 in 16 shot.  which is around 1 time every 64 weeks


you did do a 4% which is 1 in 25 cycles so back to back it is 1 in 625 cycles

So I lean to back to back 2% 1 of 16 shot. (mike can plug this in for exact number)

not back to back 3% variance 1 of 120 shot
not back to back 4% variance 1 of 625 shot


it is simply way more likely that variance was 2% up then 2% down

and cent per th dropped from 13 cents in dec to 8 cents now

and retooling s19 to s21

and some under clock


they are coming back strong !

Latest Block:   832042  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   97.6502%  (1451 / 1485.92 expected, 34.92 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   75502165623893.72                           
Current Difficulty:   81725299822043.22                           
Next Difficulty:   between 79992421406053 and 80125865742021
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.1204% and -1.9571%
Previous Retarget:   February 15, 2024 at 9:07 AM  (+8.2423%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 4:34 PM  (in 3d 23h 47m 51s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 5:12 PM  (in 4d 0h 25m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 27m 1s and 14d 8h 5m 7s

3% or more luck variance happens in 9% of epochs, that is a high probability, 4% variance happens in almost 4% of cycles which is still high.

Basically, nearly 1 in 10 epochs is subject to a 3% or more luck, nothing out of the ordinary here, run the code i posted above and you will understand how small of a sample is 2016 blocks with mean of 10 minutes.

But, having a combination of luck during an entire cycle? Well, it really takes a lot of luck.
On the other hand, I also think it's unlikely that anyone will turn their business around selling machines based on difficulty cycles.

So it was probably a combination of these and other factors, which we will most likely never find out.