Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 15. (Read 7243 times)

In your opinion, what is the most likely scenario?
Or is this a totally new situation, never faced before, and we are going to enter a new phase in Bitcoin mining?

What impact will there be for Bitcoin if the 3rd scenario is the most common?

The economics are still the same, gear efficiency only affects the numbers but not the ratio, it makes 10 become 20, or 50 become 25, but it's still a 100% increase and a 50% drop, but while we are at it, let's evaluate this from a different standpoint.

Let's look at the 2020 halving

Price= 10k (50% down from ATH)
total difficulty drop = - 45.6%  (from 25 to 13.6) this took from 11th May to 16 July,  or let's say 2 months or an average of 4 epochs.

When we climbed again to ATH in mid-November, difficulty climbed back to 21.7T, which is a 13% decrease, I would imagine the lowest difficulty drop we can ever get would be a 13% if the halving happens while BTC price is 70k, any lower than that would contribute to more drop in hashrate.


It's pretty much going to be determined by the price of BTC by then, but I would say you are most likely to be wrong, the end of Q2 is going to be 2 months and 10 days post-halving, my guess, that period will mark the lowest hashrate for this year and many years to come, it would be like July 2020 after all the dust have settled and all those mining at a loss or no good profit or the YOLO guys will understand it's actually them who need to shut down

The above theory could be further observed by looking at what happens during the halving epoch itself, we went from ATH of 23.6T to 25T, so right around the halving people were hammering the network for those last large gains before the halving, probably dozen trying solo, those planning to shutdown go full blast overclocking their gears, and then the interesting part is that it took nearly 2 months to reach that drop.

I think what explains the 2-month period to reach a new equilibrium is "hope and uncertainty", most miners would be in a dilemma, an one of three scenarios will happen to them.

1- Other people will shutdown first > difficulty will drop > I will be mining at profit again
2- Bitcoin Price will increase > I will be mining at profit again
3- I turn out to be the weakest player in the game > I will shut down

It took 2 months for the dust to settle, it could take as long or even longer this time, but it can't take forever, you may survive a month of mining at break-even or even a loss, maybe 2 months, maybe 3, but you can't keep going forever and at some point you will come to realize that others have a longer breath and it's your time to go, this is a very common psychological fact that nearly all miners have.

double down on June 30 diff being at least

85t  or 84t

that is a fun bet that I will not take.



 https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   837571  (5 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.4861%  (932 / 909.39 expected, 22.61 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83947913181361.55                            
Current Difficulty:   83126997340024.61                            
Next Difficulty:   between 84610132256801 and 85228582535786
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.7842% and +2.5282%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 5:47 AM  (-0.9779%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 10, 2024 at 9:38 PM  (in 7d 8h 17m 2s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 10, 2024 at 11:59 PM  (in 7d 10h 38m 26s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 15h 50m 57s and 13d 18h 12m 21s

stompix quoted below

"But 625 miners with S19 are 2000KW at 62,5 Peta, while you need only 312 miners with S21 for the same rate at 1100KW, and that's not the s21pro numbers.."

3.3kwatts x 625 = 2062.5 kwatts
3.6kwatts x 312.5 = 1125 kwatts a big but on this  the s21 pros may do 3.8 kwatts in a warm spot 1203.25 kwatts

if you have an s21 and 7 cent power you are good

but there were huge amounts of s19's s19 pros whatsminers m30's and m50's

June of 2023 the diff was 52 trillion it was

mostly a 30 watt a th network at that point in time.

say 350eh maybe 250 eh at 30 watts or more.

So we added 250eh make it all 17-23 watts gear.

I am think all the 30 watt gear is really bent at the 1/2 ing if it is above 6 or 7 cents.

So how much of that 250eh is burning at 6 or more cents.

and btw all is fixed with a rise in cents earned per th

But 625 miners with S19 are 2000KW at 62,5 Peta, while you need only 312 miners with S21 for the same rate at 1100KW, and that's not the s21pro numbers..
If we had had the same gear and nothing new on the horizon I would have also said something 25-30 at least, but with improvement in hash/watts, I think that it will account for the rest.


I know small miners will be hit, I know it from happening to me I see Phil doing the math himself and he was probably better positioned than many others, but I also think there will be a lot who will mine at a small loss being optimistic about the price and in order to not have a bigger loss by giving up rent, deposits, contracts, again here I'm talking not about hobby miners with 2-5 gears, I doubt those at this point make more than 5% of all the hashrate!
You know how you were amazed by how much hash some can still add, of course, that was for the big companies but I think you're underestimating the resilience of the small guys too.

But the best part about this is that, unlike other speculation on what how when who, we will see the outcome clearly in numbers beyond doubt.

So, I will double down on this, I see the hashrate at the end of Q2 higher than the week before the halving!
Let's see by how much I will get it wrong!


I think that the few people who knew they wouldn't survive the having have plugged it off already and started selling it, taking advantage of being the first to dump the gear.


Make it 40k and there will be a flood of popcorn while we get a block every 20 minutes!

"1/2 ing" is the same as "Halving"

https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769

https://bitbo.io/halving/

Sorry, but now I don't understand what you mean by "½ ing". Can you clarify?
Thanks.

if we hit the ½ ing and drop to 50k it will be crushing to miners

So, do you think that after the halving, if the value of BTC drops below 50k, we will see a sharp drop in difficulty? With many miners turning off their machines.

10-20% seems correct if we are in the 60-70k price range

we are at 10.28 cents a th.

lets pretend the network is 28 watts its higher but lets say 28 watts a th.


a 100 th machine now makes 10.28 a day pre power
at 1/2 ing it makes 5.24 a day


lets say with fans for cooling you use 72 kwatts per machine

10 cent = 7.20
  9 cent = 6.48
  8 cent = 5.76
  7 cent = 5.04
  6 cent = 4.32  a 72 cent profit.

so all s19's are knocked out except the pros and xp's at 7 cent number

the pros drop out at the 8 cent number

the xps drop out at the 10 cent number

So basically all 10 cent miners are done.

I was wondering about this and it will be one of the things to pay attention to in order to learn a little something. I’m on the side of thinking we won’t see a large drop in hashrate just because people are reactive and may even have electricity deals they can’t immediately break as mentioned above. No doubt will growth slow for a while as older gear is replaced, but I think a 10% drop might be about the worst of it. I’d bet it doesn’t do more than 20%.

There is no room for everyone post halving, think about it this way, if there was, everyone would have doubled their hashrate by now, simple logic, assume 625 miners and 6.25 BTC reward per block, if you say 625 miners will be happy with 6.25/2 rewards, it means 625*2 miners would be happy with 6.25, which we know isn't the case.

There won't be a 50% drop in hashrate that's for sure, but only 10% is not doable in my honest opinion, you need to keep in mind that there are many small folks involved, it isn't just those large U.S corps mining BTC, not to say that those are 100% safe either, so ya, BTC below 50k or not, I would say, prepare yourself for some firework.

yeah one deal ended . this deal is six cents we have around 60-70kwatts. comes to about 2500 usd power monthly. which is fine when you are mining 5000 monthly. not so fine when you are mining 2600 monthly.


also I fucked up and ordered three t21s which are three phase so I need to figure out a host for them.

I'm starting to think not much will leave, not anything really out of the ordinary will happen exactly then, and as per my usual predictions and my clean record of nailing it, I don't see more than 10%, 10 percent not in the whole two weeks adjustment 10% down in a month time since the halving.
Most big miners are on long contracts, and for them, it will be a loss to stop mining, just like planes on the ground lose more money, also a lot that might be barely profitable or even at a small loss will till wait a few months to see what happens, we still have incoming orders of gear! And then we have stuff like the s21pro!

Viabtc shows 11 cents per th/s , miners survived and expanded even at 6 cents/th, inserting the efficiency increase into this with newer gear and we might even go up by some 100 exa second quarter, even if the price doesn't move up again.
But a retrace to below $50k, and we're going to see some fireworks.


Am I doing the math wrong or are you at 6 cents kwh?


 

Still too early to judge at 405 blocks, but keeping this here for future reference.

the current estimation for the halving is 18 days, that would be on the 18th of April, 10 pm UTC,  I think it would happen a little sooner, at least a day sooner so 17th of April around 10 PM is my guess.

The current epoch is most likely going to end on the 10th of April, so the halving will hit in the middle of that epoch, half way into retarget, the epoch will drag on for a little too long, but whatever change it brings won't be accurate enough to judge how much hashpower has left, we will need to wait till the following retarget which I assume would start on the 20th of April and end 20 days later at around 10th of May, that would be when most miners get the right answer to their business.

Well the main farm was greatly reduced. we only have 1700 th when the ½ ing comes it would be just in the red with current diff and current price.

Now its great it earns 187usd  power cost is 88.5 so the profit is $88.50 usd a day

With current diff and current price we are fine

but in a month it will earn maybe 90 and cost 88.50 profit is $1.50 a day

So I may full shut down in April or go on for a month at break even hoping for prices to alter.

I had 180-190kwatts of gear running in Clifton NJ and Managed 70kwatts at that location
I now have  70kwatts of gear running in Clifton and no managed gear.

Can't predict what to do at the moment. Since price and diff need to greatly improve by May or June to keep this running .

Not a bad fit. Would you now prefer that the difficulty continues to decrease, or more or less remains at this level?

I say this because if the difficulty starts to drop significantly, at the same time that the price of BTC rises, it will lead to many miners turning on old machines again. This can mess up your accounts.

so around -1% a few hours ago

and we are over 70k price

In twenty to thirty days. the ½ ing hits. I turn into a grumpy bear.

with most of the farm ending already,  the rest may end at the ½ ing.

now at the moment 70k is great. but for me to continue i need to be at 95k.

Without a doubt, it is something positive.
But, if we analyze it carefully, and if these numbers remain the same, it indicates that the difficulty will change little since the last update. ~0.5% is very little.

Or is this difference, even if small, for a miner like you, already significant?

diff went negative. and coins over 70k

looking okay