2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 23.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   827486 (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   106.5550% (927 / 869.97 expected, 57.03 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8
Next Difficulty:   between 73624253423968 and 75066730030273
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.6639% and +6.7145%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 9:19 AM (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 2, 2024 at 12:39 PM (in 7d 2h 20m 4s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 2, 2024 at 6:41 PM (in 7d 8h 21m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 3h 19m 48s and 13d 9h 21m 40s

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: joker_josue on January 23, 2024, 03:30:28 PM

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 23, 2024, 10:10:54 AM

you will be over 99% of blocks made.

thats good enough.

of the 153 to check I believe only 30 or have made a recent block.

At this stage of development of the analysis, in 4000 blocks, I was unable to almost automatically identify the miners of 129 blocks.
This means that I was unable to identify about 3%. I don't know if it's worth spending time doing a manual check for that 3%.

Even so, I did a manual check, and noticed that several of these blocks were mined by WhitePool and SecPool. So I'm still in the dilemma of trying to get even more information.

This now seems to take a long time, but once I have the file ready, I will be able to update the data in a few minutes. Tongue

that I understand first time is a bitch you can then manipulate data.

We know some people are solo mining with custom firmware so you will not get every block identified.

joker_josue

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Quote from: philipma1957 on January 23, 2024, 10:10:54 AM

you will be over 99% of blocks made.

thats good enough.

of the 153 to check I believe only 30 or have made a recent block.

At this stage of development of the analysis, in 4000 blocks, I was unable to almost automatically identify the miners of 129 blocks.
This means that I was unable to identify about 3%. I don't know if it's worth spending time doing a manual check for that 3%.

Even so, I did a manual check, and noticed that several of these blocks were mined by WhitePool and SecPool. So I'm still in the dilemma of trying to get even more information.

This now seems to take a long time, but once I have the file ready, I will be able to update the data in a few minutes. Tongue

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: joker_josue on January 23, 2024, 08:49:51 AM

Quote from: stompix on January 23, 2024, 06:04:36 AM

The maximum reward Foundry got in an epoch for a block and the minimum, it would help point out irregularities, since if you see Foundry or any other constantly doing over 3 or 5 periods a maximum block fee two times the size of others then there must be something weird happening, same for a pool who has no variance whatsoever or for a pool that constantly mines blocks with low fees since it would mean they are maybe pushing a lot of their own transactions!!

But it would mean a lot of work and don't know if the results would really point out something!

It will not be exactly difficult to carry out this analysis.
The data I have indicates the average fee for each block (if I'm not mistaken), so it is possible to understand in which fee range each miner is earning.

In practice, what you suggest and I will analyze it, according to this example I gave: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.63509587
Or it would include another type of calculation.

I'm currently looking for a way to minimize the "unknown" pool names. But making it almost automatic is not easy. Angry

you will not be prefect on the unknown pools.

if you look up the pools via the links I gave you will find at least 147 pools as foundry is 147

over 100 will not have made a block in the last 200,000 blocks

so you kind of need to find the highest number after 147. then knock out at least 120 pools do do either inactivity or so small they have not hit a block in the last 200,000 blocks.

I am thinking 99% of the blocks made are by the top 20 pools.

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/147 = foundry

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/148 = SBI Crypto

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/149

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/150

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/151

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/152 = Mara Pool

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/153 = KuCoin Pool

https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/154 = unknown may be the end of listed pools

So 153 pools listed and If you drop all of the ones that did not make a block higher than 745,000

you will be over 99% of blocks made.

thats good enough.

of the 153 to check I believe only 30 or have made a recent block.

joker_josue

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Quote from: stompix on January 23, 2024, 06:04:36 AM

The maximum reward Foundry got in an epoch for a block and the minimum, it would help point out irregularities, since if you see Foundry or any other constantly doing over 3 or 5 periods a maximum block fee two times the size of others then there must be something weird happening, same for a pool who has no variance whatsoever or for a pool that constantly mines blocks with low fees since it would mean they are maybe pushing a lot of their own transactions!!

But it would mean a lot of work and don't know if the results would really point out something!

It will not be exactly difficult to carry out this analysis.
The data I have indicates the average fee for each block (if I'm not mistaken), so it is possible to understand in which fee range each miner is earning.

In practice, what you suggest and I will analyze it, according to this example I gave: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.63509587
Or it would include another type of calculation.

I'm currently looking for a way to minimize the "unknown" pool names. But making it almost automatic is not easy. Angry

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: joker_josue on January 21, 2024, 03:53:32 PM

I didn't understand the idea. Can you explain better?
What would these "calculations" be like? Huh

The maximum reward Foundry got in an epoch for a block and the minimum, it would help point out irregularities, since if you see Foundry or any other constantly doing over 3 or 5 periods a maximum block fee two times the size of others then there must be something weird happening, same for a pool who has no variance whatsoever or for a pool that constantly mines blocks with low fees since it would mean they are maybe pushing a lot of their own transactions!!

But it would mean a lot of work and don't know if the results would really point out something!

Quote from: joker_josue on January 21, 2024, 03:53:32 PM

Is there a website that simply lists the number of blocks and what is written on coinbase tag?
Something like this, but with longer information:
https://coin.dance/blocks#blockDetails

Not that I'm aware of unfortunately!

And lift-off, positive territory again,

Quote

Current Pace: 102.6297% (423 / 412.16 expected, 10.84 ahead)

I see Dallas going from min of -7C on Sunday to a min of +7C so the cold snap in Texas is over, so...maybe a 4% up now?

alh

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In terms of dollars, some of these changes seem less impressive. BTC price has slipped to $39,978.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote

newhedge.io

Latest Block:   826748 (22 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.3282% (189 / 200.36 expected, 11.36 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8
Next Difficulty:   between 66787089709304 and 69680412896091
Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.0558% and -0.9427%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 9:19 AM (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 3, 2024 at 12:56 PM (in 12d 18h 12m 59s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 4, 2024 at 5:31 AM (in 13d 10h 48m 32s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 36m 37s and 14d 20h 12m 11s

so a bit in and a bit off far too soon 🔜 to worry

fees are better

https://mempool.jhoenicke.de/#BTC,1y,count

diff is flat but early

Quote

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   826880 (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.9369% (321 / 321.20 expected, 0.2 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   73197634206448.34
Current Difficulty:   70343519904866.8
Next Difficulty:   between 70414080794710 and 70584844209848
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.1003% and +0.3431%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 9:19 AM (-3.8992%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   February 3, 2024 at 9:23 AM (in 11d 18h 31m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   February 3, 2024 at 9:32 AM (in 11d 18h 40m 41s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 3m 43s and 14d 0h 12m 43s

joker_josue

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Quote from: stompix on January 21, 2024, 11:27:02 AM

You might want to add the maximum spread, so have an average per day and then the min/max data.
So let's say Foundry is at 35 but min is 15 and max is 55. (random numbers here not actual data), same would be for block fee.
But, it's every step is going to involve quite the work, depends on how much passion you put in this!

I didn't understand the idea. Can you explain better?

What would these "calculations" be like? Huh

Quote from: stompix on January 21, 2024, 11:27:02 AM

You could alternatively try mempool, they have a friendlier layout for this and you can guess the pool from the coinbase tag
https://mempool.space/mining/pool/unknown

Is there a website that simply lists the number of blocks and what is written on coinbase tag?
Something like this, but with longer information:
https://coin.dance/blocks#blockDetails

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 21, 2024, 11:30:49 AM

it could miss a few but would be very complete

I'll add this information so we have a larger list of pools. Wink

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: joker_josue on January 21, 2024, 11:24:36 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 21, 2024, 10:43:24 AM

~~

Thank you for the references, and I will look into them.

But, as you can imagine, extracting information from dozens of links and then adding the information I already have will not be practical. Lips sealed

Don't you know of any website that lists who mined each block? And that has this information with the largest number of pools?

EDIT:
Will this link contain the name of all the pools that mined blocks?
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/blocks

it could miss a few but would be very complete

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 21, 2024, 10:43:24 AM

up to say
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/pool/99
if you will find everypool

Nice trick, it might work if Btc has added them at all but you have to go way higher, Foundry is 147 on the list!

Quote from: joker_josue on January 21, 2024, 10:05:55 AM

So what do you think of this presentation?
I'm still creating the table, which will present data on the number of blocks found between various fees intervals.

You might want to add the maximum spread, so have an average per day and then the min/max data.
So let's say Foundry is at 35 but min is 15 and max is 55. (random numbers here not actual data), same would be for block fee.
But, it's every step is going to involve quite the work, depends on how much passion you put in this!

LE:
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/block/826625
Seems like they don't recognize SecPool!

You could alternatively try mempool, they have a friendlier layout for this and you can guess the pool from the coinbase tag
https://mempool.space/mining/pool/unknown

joker_josue

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Quote from: philipma1957 on January 21, 2024, 10:43:24 AM

~~

Thank you for the references, and I will look into them.

But, as you can imagine, extracting information from dozens of links and then adding the information I already have will not be practical. Lips sealed

Don't you know of any website that lists who mined each block? And that has this information with the largest number of pools?

EDIT:
Will this link contain the name of all the pools that mined blocks?
https://explorer.btc.com/btc/blocks

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: joker_josue on January 21, 2024, 10:32:44 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on January 21, 2024, 10:19:37 AM

so kano pool was too small
ckpool was not listed
spiderpool is too small

I collected the data from here: https://blockchair.com/dumps

This ckpool is not listed. It's probably within the "unknown" parameter.

Do you have another good source for me to find more details on which pool found each block?

joker_josue

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Quote from: philipma1957 on January 21, 2024, 10:19:37 AM

so kano pool was too small
ckpool was not listed
spiderpool is too small

I collected the data from here: https://blockchair.com/dumps

This ckpool is not listed. It's probably within the "unknown" parameter.

Do you have another good source for me to find more details on which pool found each block?

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Quote from: joker_josue on January 21, 2024, 10:05:55 AM

Quote from: stompix on January 21, 2024, 08:49:56 AM

Quote from: joker_josue on January 21, 2024, 08:18:19 AM

In this sense, I can use the difficulty with the reference element to collect information, as it is unlikely that the same number will be repeated. Right?

I would say it's impossible, I can't think of any way to calculate the probability since hashrate fluctuates not only from luck but also from added gear, so it might never adjust backwards but even without this, once you need to hit exactly 16 digits in a % adjustment that would be closer to get not just the lottery numbers but in the right order!

So what do you think of this presentation?

Does the data make sense?
Would you prefer me to present the data in an image or in BBCode?

I'm still creating the table, which will present data on the number of blocks found between various fees intervals.

add cksolo pool

show fee per block average. you did this good

list them with the pool with the highest btc per block .you need to do this

if a jump is 2016 blocks and you are not playing with hashrates to raise your fees you should consistently be 6-13th place.

so basically you left out cksolo and you did not list in fee average order.

so kano pool was too small
ckpool was not listed
spiderpool is too small

so the last place pools are

SBIcrypto 3.57 coins a block. 42 blocks

slushpool 4.18 coins a block 29 blocks

so tracking them ten jumps in a row and seeing bad fee average over and over would looking like they are not fucking around.

all the pools above for this jump are fairly close like 4.5 to 4.9

they can be watched

joker_josue

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Quote from: stompix on January 21, 2024, 08:49:56 AM

Quote from: joker_josue on January 21, 2024, 08:18:19 AM

In this sense, I can use the difficulty with the reference element to collect information, as it is unlikely that the same number will be repeated. Right?

I would say it's impossible, I can't think of any way to calculate the probability since hashrate fluctuates not only from luck but also from added gear, so it might never adjust backwards but even without this, once you need to hit exactly 16 digits in a % adjustment that would be closer to get not just the lottery numbers but in the right order!

So what do you think of this presentation?

Does the data make sense?
Would you prefer me to present the data in an image or in BBCode?

I'm still creating the table, which will present data on the number of blocks found between various fees intervals.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: joker_josue on January 21, 2024, 08:18:19 AM

In this sense, I can use the difficulty with the reference element to collect information, as it is unlikely that the same number will be repeated. Right?

I would say it's impossible, I can't think of any way to calculate the probability since hashrate fluctuates not only from luck but also from added gear, so it might never adjust backwards but even without this, once you need to hit exactly 16 digits in a % adjustment that would be closer to get not just the lottery numbers but in the right order!

Quote from: joker_josue on January 21, 2024, 08:18:19 AM

And it shows how much of the mining is concentrated in the USA.

Hashrate, Nodes, ATMs, LN channels, now ETFs, payment gateways, slowly the USA is taking the lead in almost every aspect.
They still lack the volume in US based exchanges and an ASIC manufacturer but wait for it, and for ASICs I wonder what will happen after the halvening, normally an oversupply event should take place!
But, anyhow, the rest it's normal, everything goes where the $ (money) is!

joker_josue

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Quote from: stompix on January 21, 2024, 07:56:49 AM

Yeah, but it would take a ton of luck, an insane amount of it.
There was a difficulty adjustment of just a 0.1 and even that was way way way off:

637,056 2020-06-30 20:18:49 15,784,217,546,288 - 15.78 T 0.00 % 0x1711d519 10 min 01 s 112.84 EH/s
635,040 2020-06-16 19:51:07 15,784,744,305,477 - 15.78 T + 14.95 % 0x1711d4f2 08 min 42 s 112.98 EH/s

So the full number I would say impossible, you would right now need exactly this 4.0573947755841075% to go to the previous Grin

Thank you for the explanation.
In this sense, I can use the difficulty with the reference element to collect information, as it is unlikely that the same number will be repeated. Right?

Regarding your theory, it is really interesting, as it could be another element to take into consideration. And it shows how much of the mining is concentrated in the USA.

stompix

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Blackjack.fun

Quote from: joker_josue on January 21, 2024, 05:38:29 AM

For example, difficulty 73197634206448 may happen again. Right?

Yeah, but it would take a ton of luck, an insane amount of it.
There was a difficulty adjustment of just a 0.1 and even that was way way way off:

637,056 2020-06-30 20:18:49 15,784,217,546,288 - 15.78 T 0.00 % 0x1711d519 10 min 01 s 112.84 EH/s
635,040 2020-06-16 19:51:07 15,784,744,305,477 - 15.78 T + 14.95 % 0x1711d4f2 08 min 42 s 112.98 EH/s

So the full number I would say impossible, you would right now need exactly this 4.0573947755841075% to go to the previous Grin

As for the negative adjustment, yeah, a nice breather, we just hit another low for income per th/s since December 2nd, basically we're looking at a 83% increase in price and roughly the same income as a year ago! Not great, not terrible but...still pretty bad!
If Texas powers up, fees keep decreasing we're sliding below 8 again.

And speaking of Texas, this is a new theory, lots of tinfoil!
What if the big guys have actually way more hashrate than Foundry and are mining intentionally either unknow of with some other pool to not trigger a fear of a 51%? All big ones have said they are turning off gear, there was a serious constant drop, but Foundry isn't losing mining share that radically

Over 3 months 28.26%, 1 month 29.07%, 1week 29.24%, 3 days 29.46%, 1 day 31.58%!
So, tinfoil hat on, are they actually mining over antpool and f2pool and others with a part of the gear to disguise the hashrate?

joker_josue

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Can you tell me if the difficulty number can be repeated over time?

For example, difficulty 73197634206448 may happen again. Right?

Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 23. (Read 7279 times)