Topic: 2024 Diff thread happy New Years. - page 26. (Read 7279 times)

Excellent tip! I'm thinking of doing an analysis with this data. Thanks.

Then I share it here.

the hash power is not really available. it is only an estimate made on blocks made daily.

so if you look at foundry and they make 48 blocks in a day  for days on end the estimate is 48/144 = 33% of the worlds hashrate.

IF THE  world  makes 2016 blocks in exactly 14 days at a difficulty of 72th see below  you can calculate the estimated hashrate



blocks are here


https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/blocks

Where can you see how many blocks each pool mines daily?
And also the hash power of each pool?

quite a bit off pace 368 vs 418

and coins are near 47k


and what is the old mempool up to lets see. here is the last 7 days


first 3-4 days before the diff jump diff rose showing possible overclock and memory pool shrank in count also showing result of blocks being made quickly we lowered to 252k or 255k backed up tx in pool right at the jump.




we are now at 282-285k. tx backed up due to slow blocks.

see below.  so if you want to argue that foundry is testing my raise the fee concept this evidence certainly is in favor of what I said.
 But not conclusive at all.   much like old paternity test. If one guy is type a+ and the other guy is type B-

you could rule one out as the dad. but not prove the one you could not rule out as the dad.


Does this continue to the ETF announcement we will see. If it does  then whales like a mofo it looks more like that is what was done.

Is there any data that helps understand this type of scenario?




I share the same idea. I find this sequence of events over several weeks/months very strange.

downclocking by foundry in order to pre crowd the mempool.

this was done because they would make a ton of money if the NTF jumps up and prices go to 60k.

fees will be huge in a matter of a few days. say thursday this week.

or maybe a storm knocked out a few vast mines.

I am betting on hash manipulation by large mines.

So did everyone remember to turn off the miners?
How is it that in less than 2 days, after the difficulty change of +1%, now the forecast is almost 10%? 

Any logical explanation for this?

251 vs 282 down 31

and mempool is duh crowd again

time to stop the downclocking at foundry and then boost back to 0 behind

or I know just variance.

At kano what is the math on 251 instead of 281

So we just had a positive one again

Probably the least surprising adjustment for a while.


Pace looks bad but it's just half a day, by next day it can be 5 blocks ahead.
I don't think anything spectacular will happen this epoch either, doubt too much gear can be bought online after the holiday or that anything out of ordinary happen with tariffs, someone important enough losing precentral prices per kwh, so not holding my breath for anything.

-----

That aside, is anyone mining at antpool, and top of that encountering problems with the login? That damn slide loading and loading ..and..

And one more factor

rewards of 3.125
fees of       1

mean a 4.125 block

which is not quite a real ½ ing

Even when we were 12.5 and fees were high

we went from 14
to                    7 for a while

which was a lot more like a real ½ ing



At stompix here in the USA I can pay with Zelle up to 2000 usd a day pretty much instantly and free.

I really do not need to use the chain for amounts under 2000 usd

I have Zelle up to $2000

I also can do nicehash LN wallet for free well for 0.00000014 btc I mine 3000 a month to them .

I also can use kraken LN wallet I do not keep a lot on kraken say $500.


Put I could send them up to $10000 in cash buy btc with it and do a large LN (will not be doing that) I would use the chain for 2000 usd and higher.

While I appreciate those folks that have researched and considered what the next halving might look like based on 2020, I would urge caution in doing so. The COVID pandemic disrupted most of the planet in terms of supply chains, shipping, and overall economic activity. I don't think that Bitcoin would be immune to that as well. Lots of external forces directly influence BTC price which can drive a lot of other actions in the overall sphere of Bitcoin.

Just my thought.

What is not off topic is that suddenly, just a few hours before adjustment and difficulty, the prospect of adjustment increased to almost 2%.


It's incredible how 2 or 3 days ago, it was at zero, and now it's at 2%. Suddenly everyone turned on the machines?  

So it's off topic spam.
Please delete it.

It mostly has to do with what the price will be then, but many people will be surprised not to see an immediate drop in difficulty, so it's probably a good time to refresh everybody's memory on what happened on the previous halving.

The 2020 halving took place on the 11th of May , difficulty was 20.6T,  price was in the 8-10k range and stayed that way until October, so it had no major impact on what happened right after the halving.

So what was the next epoch difficulty post-halving? 25T, that's roughly 20% increase despite the 50% drop in reward, then two weeks later it dropped back to the pre-halving levels of 20T and stayed there until 4th of July epoch change, so nearly 2 months with no downside action on the difficulty which was contrary to what most people believed would happen.

However, two months were long enough for many miners to capitulate and accept "defeat", because the 4th of July epoch had a massive difficulty drop from 20T to 14T which is a 30% drop in difficulty, and that was the lowest difficulty we have seen since then.

The takeaway from the previous halving is

1- Do not expect an immediate drop in hashrate
2- Noway on earth we are getting a 50% drop in difficulty (not half miners have to leave, and those who stay would just accept fewer rewards and move on)

If I had to guess what's going to happen the next halving is even "worse" or "better" depending on how you look at it, because back in 2020 there were no U.S investors' money, no large mining corporations like we have today, most miners did not have long-term cheap electricity contracts (they do now), so the current large U.S players will be able to resist for a lot longer until one of 3 things happen.

A- One large player falls and lets the others enjoy his rewards.
B- All of them reduce their cost by downclocking their gears to the most efficient point.
C- Price goes up to make up for up for the halving.

I don't think C is going to happen soon enough after the halving, A is somewhat likely but B seems the most reasonable outcome at least for the 6 months period post halving, and my guess is we won't see anything more than 20% drop in difficulty, so if diff is at 80T prior to the halving, a few months later we might drop to 65T and that's the lowest it's ever going to be.

It serves two purposes it draws attention to my signature. I also

 used it to make a sign to give a snow blower away.

I took a screen shot of it blown up and printed it on my printer. then used tape on it and a larger piece of cardboard. lets see how long it takes for someone to take it away .

I would think under 2 days.

Snow blower is gone.

Analyzing it this way, the idea remains that Bitcoin was doomed from birth to be a coin for commercial use. But that's what it was made for.
I continue to think that Bitcoin can be an excellent tool for commercial exchanges, large or small. I recognize that some existing solutions do not allow this to be as functional as I would like.
Now, I also believe that the global bitcoin community will find a solution to better manage this issue.




I didn't understand, this free one. 

Damn, and I was just looking at my new 7 cents/kwh tariff for the year!
No expansion plans for me.../s , tons of sarcasm!

Massive miners don't care that much phil, they don't run on their own money, people don't care about results, they care about shares,  the guy running this is not looking at his wallet he's looking at his ceo wage, MARA shares spiked to $31, even now adjusting to the $20 areas it's still 550.59%, RIOT is at 328.04% both beating Bitcoin with a large margin.

Big miners and us plebs live a different world with different rules!


Pretty simple, you stop paying for it! 
When something becomes unfordable people ditch it and move to something else, then that thing becomes the main gateway for payments.

Have you seen the discussions here about the payments? We're on bitcointalk and we're talking about people getting paid in doge or ltc, maybe soon even usdt, on bitcointalk!  I stopped myself before saying that maybe we should tart using Paypal! 
Small payments on chain were done one way or the other anyhow, ordinals or no ordinals, image we indeed would have 100  million bitcoin users, how would that work?

Consolidate small inputs by the 4 or 5 (I don't know how much goes before 0.5kb) with 21sat/b with Viabtc and just hold, it makes like absolutely no sense now to transaction on chain, and most likely will never make sense in the future unless you deal in thousands in $ value.


6 blocks, and nearly 400 to go, this could turn negative any moment, that 6.9% adjustment last time was a fluke!

The easy short-term solve is do KYC with an exchange that allow use of LN.

Kraken does it.


hodl 90% of your coins in your wallet

put 10% in kraken.

Without a doubt, this will be difficult to combat.
I just hope that people don't get used to this, and stop debating the subject, ending up being forgotten and leaving us with these levels of super high rates.

High are going to last for at least 5 months. Say may 31.

Just look at last year.  they were high for over 6 out of 12 months.

With rewards dropping to 3.125 miners (kingpin massive mines) will want high fees