Luck ain't so bad right now!
It's probability not luck
( fingers crossed )
Topic: [4+ EH] Slush Pool (slushpool.com); Overt AsicBoost; World First Mining Pool - page 272. (Read 4382671 times)
August 08, 2014, 12:48:49 PM
It's probability not luck
( fingers crossed )
August 08, 2014, 12:23:56 PM
Luck ain't so bad right now!
August 08, 2014, 12:05:40 PM
thanks brilliant really helpful info regards ....you really are a hero
....you really are a hero August 08, 2014, 11:28:31 AM
Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.
That's it plain and simple pool luck is a measure of probability and as we know from tossing coins (or probability studies at school) the more times you toss the coin the more chance you have of getting an equal number of heads and tails. Probability tells us that if we toss a coin twice we should expect 1 head and 1 tail, if this works out then our luck is 100%. Lets toss a coin 100 times, imagine we get 50 heads and 50 tails, again our luck is 100%, because we are getting the result that probability says we should get.
If the pool probability calculation says we should expect say 5 blocks in a day, then if we get 5 blocks out luck is 100%, if we solve 10 blocks a day then our luck is 200% and if we solve only 1 block a day then our luck is just 20%, but as with tossing a coin the more times we try the closer the overall result comes to 100%.
It is not surprising that Slush runs at about 100% luck over a long period of time as that is what you should expect from every pool, in fact any pool running significantly below 100% in the long term is probably cheating you as probability says that all pool should run at about 100% in the same way that you should get an even number of heads and tails.
for the noobs out there I will say that there will always be a variance in probability, in just the same way that you can maybe sometimes throw 5 heads in a row; this is normal and unpredictable, you could try chasing the variance by switching between pools in an attempt to only mine in a pool that is experiencing good luck but the chances are that you will be using pure guesswork to base your decisions on, and even though in the short term you may make some gains eventually the rules of probability will hit you and you will have a run of bad luck which will even your luck out to about 100%. The only real option is to choose your pool (or pools if that is what you want) and stick with it, you can console yourself with the thought that whenever you see a run of bad luck it is just getting you closer to your next run of good luck.
I hope this will make sense to everyone and stop people seeing conspiracies whenever the pool luck drops.
That's it plain and simple pool luck is a measure of probability and as we know from tossing coins (or probability studies at school) the more times you toss the coin the more chance you have of getting an equal number of heads and tails. Probability tells us that if we toss a coin twice we should expect 1 head and 1 tail, if this works out then our luck is 100%. Lets toss a coin 100 times, imagine we get 50 heads and 50 tails, again our luck is 100%, because we are getting the result that probability says we should get.
If the pool probability calculation says we should expect say 5 blocks in a day, then if we get 5 blocks out luck is 100%, if we solve 10 blocks a day then our luck is 200% and if we solve only 1 block a day then our luck is just 20%, but as with tossing a coin the more times we try the closer the overall result comes to 100%.
It is not surprising that Slush runs at about 100% luck over a long period of time as that is what you should expect from every pool, in fact any pool running significantly below 100% in the long term is probably cheating you as probability says that all pool should run at about 100% in the same way that you should get an even number of heads and tails.
for the noobs out there I will say that there will always be a variance in probability, in just the same way that you can maybe sometimes throw 5 heads in a row; this is normal and unpredictable, you could try chasing the variance by switching between pools in an attempt to only mine in a pool that is experiencing good luck but the chances are that you will be using pure guesswork to base your decisions on, and even though in the short term you may make some gains eventually the rules of probability will hit you and you will have a run of bad luck which will even your luck out to about 100%. The only real option is to choose your pool (or pools if that is what you want) and stick with it, you can console yourself with the thought that whenever you see a run of bad luck it is just getting you closer to your next run of good luck.
I hope this will make sense to everyone and stop people seeing conspiracies whenever the pool luck drops.
CONGRATULATIONS SIR,
That is the best explanation of how this thing works ( or should work ) that I've ever seen on the internet.
Plain and simple and in terms that anyone can follow.
August 08, 2014, 11:04:01 AM
hi guys, can anyone advise me on import duty from china to uk via ups, i have just purchased 2 x s3 antminers at a total cost of 1.32 bitcoins approx £450.00p
could someone advise me what is the charge i will have to pay on import duty....thanks guys
could someone advise me what is the charge i will have to pay on import duty....thanks guys
I paid £201 to UPS for 4 miners - so I expect yours will be about £100 - they don't take cards btw - cash only or call the ups number 08457 877877 - option 0, 0 to pay by card when you know your miner is in the UK...
August 08, 2014, 08:44:29 AM
hi guys, can anyone advise me on import duty from china to uk via ups, i have just purchased 2 x s3 antminers at a total cost of 1.32 bitcoins approx £450.00p
could someone advise me what is the charge i will have to pay on import duty....thanks guys
could someone advise me what is the charge i will have to pay on import duty....thanks guys
August 08, 2014, 08:39:04 AM
Pool luck is not really a measure of luck at all. Pool luck is a statistical calculation, like a probability; so for any given amount of hashing speed at a given difficulty level you should expect a certain return. This is like tossing a coin, if you toss it 50 times you should expect 25 heads and 25 tails, although you may not get exactly these proportions.
That's it plain and simple pool luck is a measure of probability and as we know from tossing coins (or probability studies at school) the more times you toss the coin the more chance you have of getting an equal number of heads and tails. Probability tells us that if we toss a coin twice we should expect 1 head and 1 tail, if this works out then our luck is 100%. Lets toss a coin 100 times, imagine we get 50 heads and 50 tails, again our luck is 100%, because we are getting the result that probability says we should get.
If the pool probability calculation says we should expect say 5 blocks in a day, then if we get 5 blocks out luck is 100%, if we solve 10 blocks a day then our luck is 200% and if we solve only 1 block a day then our luck is just 20%, but as with tossing a coin the more times we try the closer the overall result comes to 100%.
It is not surprising that Slush runs at about 100% luck over a long period of time as that is what you should expect from every pool, in fact any pool running significantly below 100% in the long term is probably cheating you as probability says that all pool should run at about 100% in the same way that you should get an even number of heads and tails.
for the noobs out there I will say that there will always be a variance in probability, in just the same way that you can maybe sometimes throw 5 heads in a row; this is normal and unpredictable, you could try chasing the variance by switching between pools in an attempt to only mine in a pool that is experiencing good luck but the chances are that you will be using pure guesswork to base your decisions on, and even though in the short term you may make some gains eventually the rules of probability will hit you and you will have a run of bad luck which will even your luck out to about 100%. The only real option is to choose your pool (or pools if that is what you want) and stick with it, you can console yourself with the thought that whenever you see a run of bad luck it is just getting you closer to your next run of good luck.
I hope this will make sense to everyone and stop people seeing conspiracies whenever the pool luck drops.
That's it plain and simple pool luck is a measure of probability and as we know from tossing coins (or probability studies at school) the more times you toss the coin the more chance you have of getting an equal number of heads and tails. Probability tells us that if we toss a coin twice we should expect 1 head and 1 tail, if this works out then our luck is 100%. Lets toss a coin 100 times, imagine we get 50 heads and 50 tails, again our luck is 100%, because we are getting the result that probability says we should get.
If the pool probability calculation says we should expect say 5 blocks in a day, then if we get 5 blocks out luck is 100%, if we solve 10 blocks a day then our luck is 200% and if we solve only 1 block a day then our luck is just 20%, but as with tossing a coin the more times we try the closer the overall result comes to 100%.
It is not surprising that Slush runs at about 100% luck over a long period of time as that is what you should expect from every pool, in fact any pool running significantly below 100% in the long term is probably cheating you as probability says that all pool should run at about 100% in the same way that you should get an even number of heads and tails.
for the noobs out there I will say that there will always be a variance in probability, in just the same way that you can maybe sometimes throw 5 heads in a row; this is normal and unpredictable, you could try chasing the variance by switching between pools in an attempt to only mine in a pool that is experiencing good luck but the chances are that you will be using pure guesswork to base your decisions on, and even though in the short term you may make some gains eventually the rules of probability will hit you and you will have a run of bad luck which will even your luck out to about 100%. The only real option is to choose your pool (or pools if that is what you want) and stick with it, you can console yourself with the thought that whenever you see a run of bad luck it is just getting you closer to your next run of good luck.
I hope this will make sense to everyone and stop people seeing conspiracies whenever the pool luck drops.
August 08, 2014, 02:06:41 AM
maybe, maybe not, that's how luck works, everything should balance out. may take a week a month or a year. i have been on this pool over 3 years and it always balances out and seemingly on the positive side ( dunno why, slush must be exceptionally lucky I guess)
August 08, 2014, 02:05:24 AM
this bad luck streak seems just like back in Feb, March until we had an incredibly long good luck steak till a week or so ago. hopefully this bad luck streak is shorter.
statistically speaking does not the math imply..that eventually they have to balance out? ie this long luck street we had will now be matched by an equally long down streak?
(damn it scared self)
Searing
August 08, 2014, 02:01:31 AM
this bad luck streak seems just like back in Feb, March until we had an incredibly long good luck steak till a week or so ago. hopefully this bad luck streak is shorter.
all the newby theories above will look quite silly to them once they have read and learned how bitcoin and mining works.
all the newby theories above will look quite silly to them once they have read and learned how bitcoin and mining works.
August 07, 2014, 05:49:22 PM
F... Slush!!!
Cursing won't help...
I do not won't to stick around until I just pay the electric company. Now divided between Ghash, BTCGuild and Slush (just token mining).
But BTCGuild has pretty awful bad luck streaks also. Makes me wonder if there may be other stuff going on as well.
We are not in a business run by saints nor the altruistic.
Anybody that can throw in 2cents worth about P2Pool mining?
P2Pool serves up a block about ever 6 to 24 hours. Sometimes a day and a half. http://p2pool.info/
The software to setup is a bit buggy from my limited attempt. I thought it was a windows error so I set it up on Linux and got the same errors. It looks like it has potential but the proxy is just not ready for prime time from my experience.
Just point your miner at someone's public node and it works perfict for P2pool. This link is a good place to start. Once you research and understand more you can run your own node if you like.
http://minefast.coincadence.com/index.html
Note: P2pool.org is not P2pool. There are several other stable public nodes ran by trusted bitcointalk.org members. If you use one make sure you have a good internet connection because latency can be an issue if you don't.
P2pool payout comparison:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/benchmark-p2pool-vs-btcguild-vs-eligius-416933
August 07, 2014, 05:32:28 PM
F... Slush!!!
Cursing won't help...
I do not won't to stick around until I just pay the electric company. Now divided between Ghash, BTCGuild and Slush (just token mining).
But BTCGuild has pretty awful bad luck streaks also. Makes me wonder if there may be other stuff going on as well.
We are not in a business run by saints nor the altruistic.
Anybody that can throw in 2cents worth about P2Pool mining?
P2Pool serves up a block about ever 6 to 24 hours. Sometimes a day and a half. http://p2pool.info/
The software to setup is a bit buggy from my limited attempt. I thought it was a windows error so I set it up on Linux and got the same errors. It looks like it has potential but the proxy is just not ready for prime time from my experience.
August 07, 2014, 03:33:03 PM
F... Slush!!!
Cursing won't help...
I do not won't to stick around until I just pay the electric company. Now divided between Ghash, BTCGuild and Slush (just token mining).
But BTCGuild has pretty awful bad luck streaks also. Makes me wonder if there may be other stuff going on as well.
We are not in a business run by saints nor the altruistic.
Anybody that can throw in 2cents worth about P2Pool mining?
August 07, 2014, 03:21:46 PM
interested what pool you use ? i still understand about this . this like cloud mining ?
Um, this is Slush's Pool thread. So let's assume that most people posting here are using Slush.
And no, this is nothing like cloud mining. You need hardware to pool mine.
August 07, 2014, 03:18:16 PM
interested what pool you use ? i still understand about this . this like cloud mining ?
I use slush (this is the slush pool thread but not all people who post here mine here). There's a lot to understand when you first start but there are some good articles for newbies here...
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=39.0
August 07, 2014, 02:42:32 PM
interested what pool you use ? i still understand about this . this like cloud mining ?
August 07, 2014, 02:20:23 PM
well I will give slush another 12 hours to find this block if not im gone somewhere else.
Start with slush, all seems great when the luck is good, hit a few long blocks for a week or so, jump ship to ghash, get bored of the "consistency", come back to slush and ride the up down wave - at least it's not boring...
The point a lot people are missing is the clock it ticking.. Do you really think this " mining " is going to last more than 1 year or so before it becomes a losing enterprise for most people unless you have the latest and greatest hardware, an even then the payouts will be less and less.
In the near future when all the "BTC" have been mined and there are no more " rewards" for mining, what then ?
All BTC will "mined" within 5 years maybe less, then now more " block" rewards.
The point I'm making is to " make hay while the sun shines ". We dont have time to hang around waiting for things to " straighten out ".
Bob
Sigh - bitcoin wont be "all mined" in 5 years - you are looking at about 100 years away - current estimate is between 2110 and 2140.
Yes you will need to continually upgrade your hardware if everyone else is doing the same.
I've seen thousands of people like you pass through here with their pearls of wisdom. Read some stuff and find some stuff out. Stop blurting the first thing that comes into your head.
Start here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin
Sorry!
I guess I'm not as friggin smart as you.
Have a nice day
I can read if that's what you mean...
August 07, 2014, 02:19:01 PM
well I will give slush another 12 hours to find this block if not im gone somewhere else.
Start with slush, all seems great when the luck is good, hit a few long blocks for a week or so, jump ship to ghash, get bored of the "consistency", come back to slush and ride the up down wave - at least it's not boring...
The point a lot people are missing is the clock it ticking.. Do you really think this " mining " is going to last more than 1 year or so before it becomes a losing enterprise for most people unless you have the latest and greatest hardware, an even then the payouts will be less and less.
In the near future when all the "BTC" have been mined and there are no more " rewards" for mining, what then ?
All BTC will "mined" within 5 years maybe less, then now more " block" rewards.
The point I'm making is to " make hay while the sun shines ". We dont have time to hang around waiting for things to " straighten out ".
Bob
Sigh - bitcoin wont be "all mined" in 5 years - you are looking at about 100 years away - current estimate is between 2110 and 2140.
Yes you will need to continually upgrade your hardware if everyone else is doing the same.
I've seen thousands of people like you pass through here with their pearls of wisdom. Read some stuff and find some stuff out. Stop blurting the first thing that comes into your head.
Start here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin
Sorry!
I guess I'm not as friggin smart as you.
Have a nice day
August 07, 2014, 02:01:55 PM
well I will give slush another 12 hours to find this block if not im gone somewhere else.
Start with slush, all seems great when the luck is good, hit a few long blocks for a week or so, jump ship to ghash, get bored of the "consistency", come back to slush and ride the up down wave - at least it's not boring...
The point a lot people are missing is the clock it ticking.. Do you really think this " mining " is going to last more than 1 year or so before it becomes a losing enterprise for most people unless you have the latest and greatest hardware, an even then the payouts will be less and less.
In the near future when all the "BTC" have been mined and there are no more " rewards" for mining, what then ?
All BTC will "mined" within 5 years maybe less, then now more " block" rewards.
The point I'm making is to " make hay while the sun shines ". We dont have time to hang around waiting for things to " straighten out ".
Bob
Sigh - bitcoin wont be "all mined" in 5 years - you are looking at about 100 years away - current estimate is between 2110 and 2140.
Yes you will need to continually upgrade your hardware if everyone else is doing the same.
I've seen thousands of people like you pass through here with their pearls of wisdom. Read some stuff and find some stuff out. Stop blurting the first thing that comes into your head.
Start here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin
August 07, 2014, 02:00:56 PM
In the near future when all the "BTC" have been mined and there are no more " rewards" for mining, what then ?
None of us will be alive in 2140 when that will happen.Quote
All BTC will "mined" within 5 years maybe less, then now more " block" rewards.
Wrong - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BitcoinQuote
The point I'm making is to " make hay while the sun shines ". We dont have time to hang around waiting for things to " straighten out ".
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