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Topic: 94% correction? [46% so far] - page 4. (Read 8970 times)

sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
February 05, 2012, 05:42:35 PM
#54
Chart analysis = pattern analysis = reading goat entrails = consulting the Oracle at Delphi Smiley


'chart analysis' is just looking at price and volume data presented in graphical form. do you ever glance at the price at bitcoincharts or mtgoxlive? do you use the information you thusly glean to inform your trades? congratulations! you are an analyst. now stop bitching.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
February 05, 2012, 04:47:13 PM
#53
ITT:
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1020
February 05, 2012, 04:25:59 PM
#52
should we go down to $3 people will buy again. many are only waiting for an opportunity.

the bitcoin story is just too good, maybe even too good to come true quickly.
hero member
Activity: 504
Merit: 502
February 05, 2012, 02:54:38 PM
#51
Part of the problem I have with this sort of claim is that all the chatter during the months long correction from $32 tells me that there is no set of conditions bitcoin enthusiasts would count as bitcoin-death short of worldwide nuclear extinction or something.

To be fair though... so far, they were right.  $2 was hardly "death".
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
February 05, 2012, 02:45:59 PM
#50
The sad fact is that there are tons of really good things going on in bitcoin development right now.  Infrastructure security has improved remarkably since June.  The client is getting better and better.  There was a fucking TV show devoted entirely to BTC, and there's a nice looking bitcoin magazine on the horizon, and yet the market simply does not care.  What this tells me is that the damage done to public perception by all the 2011 shit was severe.  Quite honestly, I think it's the well established bitcoin community responsible for the upswing since $2 and holding prices at these levels on the hopeful anticipation that the rest of the world will come around.  That can't go on forever.

Makes it all the sadder is that just a few well-placed buys/sells can transform Bitcoin dollars into pennies overnight.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1001
February 05, 2012, 02:40:56 PM
#49
I have had an interesting thought lately. What if November to January was a brief correction from the 6 months long bear market which is over now?

If we assume the top is 7.22 and there is again a months long 94% "consolidation", the low would turn out to be 0.45 USD.

Food for thought.

Quite possible.
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1056
Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com
February 05, 2012, 02:09:22 PM
#48
I understand that you guys are bearish if you truly see Silk Road as the only usage for Bitcoin. I find that sad and I hope you give up on Bitcoin because spreading all this FUD isn't helping anything.

What you're talking about is a fundamental issue and I respect that. But I see Bitcoin as a long term project, it will take years until it is a convenient and safe payment method accepted in many places.

My own experience is very different as far as using Bitcoin is concerned. I've never used Silk Road and I never used Bitcoin during the summer. Now I've actually used Bitcoin many times and it seems that my average usage of Bitcoin is increasing on average every month. I've always wanted to use Bitcoin and it's becoming more usable slowly but surely.

I still expect it to take many years until I can call my Bitcoin usage significant compared to my fiat usage, but there has been improvement. I find the Android wallets especially convenient and I tend to use them a lot among my friends these days, mainly to settle small debts.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
February 05, 2012, 02:02:25 PM
#47
3) Transaction count is meaningless because it can be manipulated with "fake" transactions.
I've seen no evidence of this, until I see proof that this is actually being done I still see that count as one of the most reliable indicators of actual Bitcoin usage.

i dont know about you but i dont like to do a transaction for no reason...

faking one seem kinda pointless
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1056
Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com
February 05, 2012, 01:56:43 PM
#46
3) Transaction count is meaningless because it can be manipulated with "fake" transactions.
I've seen no evidence of this, until I see proof that this is actually being done I still see that count as one of the most reliable indicators of actual Bitcoin usage.

Quote
For example, the MtGox hack happened AFTER Bitcoin topped out. The hacks and scams and shitty atmosphere happened AFTER, WHILE and BECAUSE Bitcoin was "consolidating" 94%.
The relevant factor here is that Bitcoin would've never "consolidated" to $2 if these hacks had not happened. That was a major overshoot which was helped by these events.

legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
February 05, 2012, 01:47:41 PM
#45
@proudhon  also note that ppl dont want to complicate their life whit all thing bitcoin needs in order to buy stuff even when said stuff in bitcoins have the same value in EUR

if i am the customer and i pay 100 EUR for something and then if i want to pay in BTC i have to spend a equal amount of value(100 EUR) is just plain stupid, i have way more benefits from using my credit card that using btc, if i use a CC i can make a charge back if the item is not functioning or is broken (also i get points from my bank) if anyone wants to lose that ability just for the sake of bitcoin they need to a reality check

I agree.  Bitcoin so far is a horrible currency.

this will change

in a few years thebitcoinreview.com will offer bitcoin spending insurance, are policy will be so long as you spend your coins from one of the sites listed we will guarantee your satisfaction or your bitcoins back. this service will be free.

i need a few years to get to know all the truly reputable merchants
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
February 05, 2012, 01:41:29 PM
#44
I agree.  Bitcoin so far is a horrible currency.
It’s not a currency at all. There is not a single community which would accept Bitcoins because they are Bitcoins, and not because they are worth xyz Dollars according to some Magic the Gathering exchange, where the exchange rate is decided by speculators and Bitcoinica casino players.

It’s evident when you see the system Silk Road has in place. The prices are even given in USD.

You also buy Bitcoins. Obviously, you buy them with money. When you sell them, you get money. The fiat is the money and BTC is the asset.
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
February 05, 2012, 01:36:24 PM
#43
@proudhon  also note that ppl dont want to complicate their life whit all thing bitcoin needs in order to buy stuff even when said stuff in bitcoins have the same value in EUR

if i am the customer and i pay 100 EUR for something and then if i want to pay in BTC i have to spend a equal amount of value(100 EUR) is just plain stupid, i have way more benefits from using my credit card that using btc, if i use a CC i can make a charge back if the item is not functioning or is broken (also i get points from my bank) if anyone wants to lose that ability just for the sake of bitcoin they need to a reality check

I agree.  Bitcoin so far is a horrible currency.
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1056
Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com
February 05, 2012, 01:32:50 PM
#42
The sad fact is that there are tons of really good things going on in bitcoin development right now.  Infrastructure security has improved remarkably since June.  The client is getting better and better.  There was a fucking TV show devoted entirely to BTC, and there's a nice looking bitcoin magazine on the horizon, and yet the market simply does not care.  What this tells me is that the damage done to public perception by all the 2011 shit was severe.  Quite honestly, I think it's the well established bitcoin community responsible for the upswing since $2 and holding prices at these levels on the hopeful anticipation that the rest of the world will come around.  That can't go on forever.
+1

I actually agree with this 100%. Even though I'm a long term thinker, long term doesn't mean forever. Eventually Bitcoin has to pick up some real speed, as a starting Bitcoin enterpreneur I certainly hope it happens in the next 2 years and I'm actually going to spend majority of my time trying to help with that.

The great thing about the economic model of Bitcoin is the fact that there is a major extra incentive to develop Bitcoin. If you hold bitcoins and create something of value to the Bitcoin economy, price will increase and your BTC is worth more. This is one of those things I like about Bitcoin.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
[#][#][#]
February 05, 2012, 01:30:23 PM
#41
The sad fact is that there are tons of really good things going on in bitcoin development right now.  Infrastructure security has improved remarkably since June.  The client is getting better and better.  There was a fucking TV show devoted entirely to BTC, and there's a nice looking bitcoin magazine on the horizon, and yet the market simply does not care.  What this tells me is that the damage done to public perception by all the 2011 shit was severe.  Quite honestly, I think it's the well established bitcoin community responsible for the upswing since $2 and holding prices at these levels on the hopeful anticipation that the rest of the world will come around.  That can't go on forever.

your post is a good example of why i think you are a benefit for this forum Smiley

..it can't go on forever, but it has enough time left. patience.
N12
donator
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1010
February 05, 2012, 01:29:05 PM
#40
1) I still see scams and hacks, but yes, it’s much smaller scale.

2) Yes, it’s really not going anywhere. WHAT has Bitcoin "unlocked" since Silk Road came out in February 2011? I’m serious, there hasn’t been anything significant since SR. I immediately bought Bitcoins when Silk Road came out.

3) Transaction count is meaningless because it can be manipulated with "fake" transactions.

And … Has any fundamental data helped you come to a decision where you could sell Bitcoins high and rebuy lower? The price is usually the leading indicator for fundamentals. For example, the MtGox hack happened AFTER Bitcoin topped out. The hacks and scams and shitty atmosphere happened AFTER, WHILE and BECAUSE Bitcoin was "consolidating" 94%.
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
February 05, 2012, 01:25:28 PM
#39
The sad fact is that there are tons of really good things going on in bitcoin development right now.  Infrastructure security has improved remarkably since June.  The client is getting better and better.  There was a fucking TV show devoted entirely to BTC, and there's a nice looking bitcoin magazine on the horizon, and yet the market simply does not care.  What this tells me is that the damage done to public perception by all the 2011 shit was severe.  Quite honestly, I think it's the well established bitcoin community responsible for the upswing since $2 and holding prices at these levels on the hopeful anticipation that the rest of the world will come around.  That can't go on forever.
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1056
Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com
February 05, 2012, 01:20:39 PM
#38
Technomage, what kind of "fundamental decline" happened from June to November, then? And what has suddenly changed since the 2 dollar low in November?
Mainly three things have changed.

1) The core 3rd party services have improved and we have not seen the kind of issues we saw from June to November, such as the MyBitcoin incident and the Mt. Gox hack etc. Nothing of this magnitude has happened which has increased the overall confidence in Bitcoin.

2) Bitcoin has proven over the last few months that it's not a fluke. It's not going anywhere. The longer Bitcoin stays alive and well the better its momentum long term will be. It can't easily be dismissed as nothing anymore and in a year or two nobody can say that anymore (if it continues to stay alive and well for a few more years).

3) This is something more tangible which is the actual usage of Bitcoin, based on the transaction count. Unlike the node count, which is entirely irrelevant due to the ever increasing usage of light clients and web wallets, transaction count actually matters. That graph is looking healthy to me, especially when taking into account that the price of $2 was clearly a major overshoot.

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions
http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?showDataPoints=false×pan=&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

I admit it's not looking like we're going to the moon just now, but I'm not claiming anything like that. I'm simply saying that things are not as bad as some want to believe.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
February 05, 2012, 01:17:22 PM
#37
Everyone knows Bitcoin is a risky investment in general, I'm prepared to lose everything. But to be completely honest, I give EUR a lower survival chance in 2012 than I give for Bitcoin. Euro could completely die, it's very unlikely that Bitcoin completely dies.

Euro will survive.




Euro will survive. bitcoin will thrive!  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2198
Merit: 1311
February 05, 2012, 01:17:00 PM
#36
But to be completely honest, I give EUR a lower survival chance in 2012 than I give for Bitcoin. Euro could completely die, it's very unlikely that Bitcoin completely dies.

Part of the problem I have with this sort of claim is that all the chatter during the months long correction from $32 tells me that there is no set of conditions bitcoin enthusiasts would count as bitcoin-death short of worldwide nuclear extinction or something.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
[#][#][#]
February 05, 2012, 01:14:41 PM
#35
Everyone knows Bitcoin is a risky investment in general, I'm prepared to lose everything. But to be completely honest, I give EUR a lower survival chance in 2012 than I give for Bitcoin. Euro could completely die, it's very unlikely that Bitcoin completely dies.

Euro will survive.

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