Topic: 94% correction? [46% so far] - page 5. (Read 8970 times)

I overshot with the 0,1%, the prediction is not that far off. I completely agree with you. My point was that I think these predictions are pointless until there is actually something real to support such a decline. I can't see anything like that right now which is why I give it such a low probability.

The overall probability of a disastrous scenario is course much higher just like you explained. We could see a technical breakdown or a successful attack against the network, or we could see BTC/USD trade made illegal. Anything can happen that would justify a very significant drop in price. But I won't even entertain such predictions until something actually happens.

Everyone knows Bitcoin is a risky investment in general, I'm prepared to lose everything. But to be completely honest, I give EUR a lower survival chance in 2012 than I give for Bitcoin. Euro could completely die, it's very unlikely that Bitcoin completely dies.

Do you really think I believe I could manipulate the Bitcoin market via a forum thread? Don’t be ridiculous.

I want to discuss an absurd idea I had, and the feedback I’m getting from eternal bulls seems to support the bag holding that is possibly repeating from summer.

I have SHARED ARGUMENTS based on my analysis in my posting: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.732366

You haven’t answered them but instead come up with your typical "blah blah fundamentals; no reason to sell 1 single Bitcoin because UP UP UP".

makes sense

+1

Exactly. This is why most of these threads are made. People who hold mostly USD positions make these type of threads and they hope to increase their profits that way. The same sometimes applies for people holding BTC positions as well, but I definitely feel that people in this community trading BTC mainly for gaining more BTC genuinely care much more for Bitcoin than do the traders who trade for increasing USD only.

i am not a trader experienced enougth to identify 'the end of a correction', but i also share your bullish position: the slow uptrend-line formed about 2-3 months ago will likely hold, i think.

You are giving Bitcoin a >99.9% survival chance? Sorry, but even as an enthusiast, I'd call this delusional. Trading on this is not a good idea, and would probably cause catastrophic problems in risk management. I'd probably not sign a paper giving USD or EUR >98% survival chance in the next year. You're a factor 20 off from there, and those are well-established globally used currencies.

Remind yourself, if your statement is true, you would accept a 1:1000 asymmetric bet on this. Are you sure that would be a good idea?

Just a reminder: be careful when assuming something like 99.9% probability. That's a whole lot of room for improbable events.

Mmmm ... I think I rarely wrong, and "gut feeling" tells me - if these trends are a few lines are not broken down (I think they will not be broken down) then it will launch another rocket is above and beyond   it does not seem to signal a trend downward ... it looks like the end of the correction ...

indeed somebody crossing the speculation forum for the first time will have a pretty bearish view on bitcoin caused by all the madness on both sides..

I had a similar "epiphany" when I lost a few hundred BTC trading and made them back plus a few hundred more, proudhon. I can never gain any USD if I’m not willing to lose them, but the very same is true for Bitcoins!

What a long time it has taken me to understand something as simple as that.

Technomage, what kind of "fundamental decline" happened from June to November, then? And what has suddenly changed since the 2 dollar low in November?

My only worry is the effect these threads have on sheep. The price movements right now are of no concern. My one and only reason to post here right now is to give the sheep another point of view. If the price is destined to fall it will fall, but less panicking will lead to a more stable Bitcoin price which is a good thing in my book.

I would sell immediately if I saw a possibility of this because it would allow me to increase my BTC position significantly. However with the current level of Bitcoin usage that would be way off any correlation thus far and the market cap would be way too small to make any sense. I give this prediction less than 0,1% possibility, it can only happen if there is a fundamental decline for Bitcoin in general, and right now there are no signs of that.

I'm worried about some things related to Bitcoin but the sustainability of the price around $5 is definitely not one of them. It will be if these other things I'm worried about become more serious issues than they are now, but that is another day and I'll reconsider things then.

What's funny is that in the days after things began to unravel back in June I was adamant that I wasn't going to sell my bitcoins, because things were going to turn around.  After listening to Nagle go on and on for a month or two I finally wised up and got out and I'm in a much better BTC and USD position as a result.  I'm not dogmatic anymore.  I hope bitcoin succeeds, I really do.  But I'm no longer willing to sit around passively and I'm willing to miss the astronomical adoption and price increase that so many think is on the horizon for a higher measure of security with what I've already accumulated USD wise.  When I can spend BTCs easily and securely on the things I want and need without it costing more than using USD, then I'll stay in BTC.  Right now, as I said, it's all USD for me and I only swap in and out to increase USD.

Then you probably would have no problem with another 94% decline anyway. I think it’s a funny "what if" scenario.

Also, I have given reasoning in my posts #2 and 3 here. If you think my thread is pointless, then perhaps speculation is pointless.

I'm a long term investor, not a trader. I only trade when I see a big enough reason to warrant that approach. I wouldn't recommend traders to follow my advice, that is a whole different ball game.

Right now the situation to me looks like business as usual. These threads are pointless.

No, I’m not. But I’m telling him that he would have found people crazy too if they suggested Bitcoin would decline that far back in May to August.

Also, if Technomage says there is "no reason to panic or sell a single BTC", then IMO it’s time to shit your pants.

I hope you're not seriously trying to predict future price based on that? To me that is just as relevant as trying to read Gavin's palm and predicting the price based on that, or looking at the stars for answers.

That feels almost like trolling to me.

As much as I hate to say it, I don't much care where the price ends up anymore.  I've stopped trying to increase my bitcoin position and instead am primarily concerned with increasing my USD position.  Every few days when I spot a clear enough trend, I'll trade into BTC, then back out again as quickly as I profitably can.  Sure, this means that in the event Bill Gates come along and drops $10 billion in the bitcoin market I'll miss out on becoming an instant millionaire.  But, it also means I'm not going to lose the increase I've already managed to grab from people dicking around on bitcoinica, or if whatever-his-name-is-with-over-300,000-BTCs comes along and decides to cash it all out.  I'm staying in USDs and I'll swap around to take more of them from whomever wants to give them up.

32*0.06=1.92

Now do the same for 7.22

I genuinely don't know what is going to happen in the short term but from a long term perspective I still see no reason to panic or sell a single BTC. I'm staying out of this madness as well, but my position is 100% BTC. Unless something profound enough happens that changes my mind, I will keep this position.

The situation is quite neutral from a fundamental perspective, we've had some news recently but not much. At the same time Bitcoin is now constantly used more than it was used in the last 3 months of 2011. This is data from the transaction count. There have been some boosts this month such as people sending coins to exchanges for selling them and the recent Silk Road boost. But that doesn't explain that the transaction count is constantly high these days.

On the other side of the coin we still have the confidence decline that was caused by the "Bitcoinica event" and the confusion and doubt that has come from the BIP debates. The first issue will fade and be less meaningful every day, unless the people who caused the event forget about it and make the same mistakes again. The second issue is more fundamental to me personally but I have faith that the Bitcoin development team will be able to overcome that issue. This month and next month in particular is very important and revealing as far as P2SH and the entire development of Bitcoin is concerned.

In other words I have no other tools in my toolkit right now other than being in or out long term. I see a small possibility that the development issues will make me lose faith in the whole project within the next couple of months but only if they fail miserably. We will see. Otherwise I'm very much in.

That's what I've concluded.

IMHO, Bitcoin is a highly speculative commodity and "day-trading" with it is just gambling
your USDs away.

I leave it to the day-trading "experts" to ride those daily rallies, avoiding impending smack downs,  
divining fake or real Ask Walls, while conveniently blaming Bitcoinica and/or a Manipulator for all their
trading woes.  Have fun chasing that rabbit.

Bitcoin is great way to buy and sell stuff on the internet, and for those early adopters, maybe
it's an investment.

But if you're remotely considering trading in Bitcoins like you would a stock, please remember
the aforementioned words of wisdom: it's Bitcoin, anything could happen.