Learn to read charts, and trendlines are the last thing to look at..
This is the last stop down to get coins cheap..
Lets see what Volatilityoinica has in store for us this week!
Topic: 94% correction? [46% so far] - page 6. (Read 8970 times)
I bet you would have said the same if someone predicted it in May-August. 
Exactly. Most people seemed to think it was utter stupidity to claim the price would fall back down below $5.
I bet you would have said the same if someone predicted it in May-August.
yes, and 0.42$ turned out to be pretty offshore
I bet you would have said the same if someone predicted it in May-August.
the speculation forum is just plain and simple madness.
the bulls talk about reaching 1 billion this year, the bears talk about reaching 0.42$ soon.
chill down, folks. listen to the music and relax^^
the bulls talk about reaching 1 billion this year, the bears talk about reaching 0.42$ soon.
chill down, folks. listen to the music and relax^^
I know people don't like forecasts based on the order book, but tracking order book changes has been just as reliable as anything else. So, it's worth noting that the order book appears to be flipping again with asks piling up. Just a few days ago after some large movements there were less than 200,000BTCs up for sale. Now there's just over 260,000. This, in combination with recent long over-leveraging and trend line breakdown is good enough information for me to stay the hell out. It's beginning to look like the correction from $7.2 is going to last pretty long and could be unnervingly deep.
What I'm guessing is another month or so after further downside from here. Then a rally back up but not higher than $7.2 - maybe in the $5 range. I see this sort of behavior going on for a long time so long as bitcoin adoption fails to pick up.
What I'm guessing is another month or so after further downside from here. Then a rally back up but not higher than $7.2 - maybe in the $5 range. I see this sort of behavior going on for a long time so long as bitcoin adoption fails to pick up.
Now, for the fellow chartists: http://www.sierrachart.com/userimages/upload_2/1328458777598.png
We have 3 trendlines, let’s call them short, mid and long term.
Short term is broken, mid term is about to be tested now.
We have 3 trendlines, let’s call them short, mid and long term.
Short term is broken, mid term is about to be tested now.
Chart analysis = pattern analysis = reading goat entrails = consulting the Oracle at Delphi 
Mh... I dunno, 0.45 USD/BTC would be dangerously low. Market cap dropping below 10M would already be quite extreme, below 5M could be dangerous. I hope it doesn't come to that, since it might endanger the Bitcoin market itself.
Yes, exactly my thoughts when Bitcoin went IMO pretty low with 4 USD in September.. Bitcoin is kind of too small and too poorly distributed to exist. It’s a race for adoption, and we are losing it.
Mh... I dunno, 0.45 USD/BTC would be dangerously low. Market cap dropping below 10M would already be quite extreme, below 5M could be dangerous and probably would call in enthusiasts. I hope it doesn't come to that, since the situation might endanger the Bitcoin market itself, depending on how wealthy or determined the true enthusiasts really are.
I still fail to fully understand the psychology of the people causing this whole chaos, I just know they strengthen mid-term trends and change their minds in some fractal pattern. But the chart analysis stuff is increasingly useless; everybody either uses it or expects the others to use it, and so the meta-analysis of other traders plays out like rock-paper-scissors.
Bottom line: it's Bitcoin, anything could happen.
I still fail to fully understand the psychology of the people causing this whole chaos, I just know they strengthen mid-term trends and change their minds in some fractal pattern. But the chart analysis stuff is increasingly useless; everybody either uses it or expects the others to use it, and so the meta-analysis of other traders plays out like rock-paper-scissors.
Bottom line: it's Bitcoin, anything could happen.
And now my hypothesis for why this could be happening:
Bitcoin distribution is still very poor, as can be seen by the big sells, bid walls and ask walls which lead to a concentration of BTC.
The fact that we have had one year of difficulty 1 at the beginning along with a couple dudes from the cryptography mailing list and the same BTC production as nowadays does not help.
There is also little influx of new Bitcoin users, differently from what people hoped to see the Good Wife episode do.
Bitcoin distribution is still very poor, as can be seen by the big sells, bid walls and ask walls which lead to a concentration of BTC.
The fact that we have had one year of difficulty 1 at the beginning along with a couple dudes from the cryptography mailing list and the same BTC production as nowadays does not help.
There is also little influx of new Bitcoin users, differently from what people hoped to see the Good Wife episode do.
Perhaps let me add some technical evidence:
Daily RSI confirms the turn down at 6.2 by a lower high. We still haven’t seen it above 60 ever since the Bitcoinica crash
Daily MACD is bouncing off and about to return to negative territory after a false bounce off ~0.
30d SMA (the famous Nagle chart) was 6.2, where it stopped rallying.
Sentiment is altered ever since the Bitcoinica 4.64 low. There may be other factors like the (political) issues around BIP 16.
Daily RSI confirms the turn down at 6.2 by a lower high. We still haven’t seen it above 60 ever since the Bitcoinica crash
Daily MACD is bouncing off and about to return to negative territory after a false bounce off ~0.
30d SMA (the famous Nagle chart) was 6.2, where it stopped rallying.
Sentiment is altered ever since the Bitcoinica 4.64 low. There may be other factors like the (political) issues around BIP 16.
I have had an interesting thought lately. What if November to January was a brief correction from the 6 months long bear market which is over now?
If we assume the top is 7.22 and there is again a months long 94% "consolidation", the low would turn out to be 0.45 USD.
Food for thought.
If we assume the top is 7.22 and there is again a months long 94% "consolidation", the low would turn out to be 0.45 USD.
Food for thought.
I don't think that's unreasonable.
I have had an interesting thought lately. What if November to January was a brief correction from the 6 months long bear market which is over now?
If we assume the top is 7.22 and there is again a months long 94% "consolidation", the low would turn out to be 0.45 USD.
Food for thought.
If we assume the top is 7.22 and there is again a months long 94% "consolidation", the low would turn out to be 0.45 USD.
Food for thought.
Jump to: