Topic: A brief history of exponential trends (Read 5506 times)
So based on the chart I see us breaking through 400 within 48hrs
this chart shows two interesting things!
1. I was totally wrong (overly bearish! whodathunkit) which will come as no surprise
2. TERA looked pretty much bang on with that red line...
1. I was totally wrong (overly bearish! whodathunkit) which will come as no surprise
2. TERA looked pretty much bang on with that red line...
we are very bullish
update:
Basic trend since 2011 still intact
Rally Acceleration since 2013 now broken
Basic trend since 2011 still intact
Rally Acceleration since 2013 now broken
only Gox is "done"
Many other exchanges which don't exist anymore have an even lower price, so this does not mean anything. If you can't withdraw either fiat or btc or both, such a price should be ignored, as that's not an *exchange* in a standard definition of the term.
PS I really think your blue line would hold.
only Gox is "done"
I don't put much stock in chart extrapolation, but I'm curious: Isn't it odd to draw a trendline that the price is constantly above?
I think people are trying to establish a baseline price, that it will never go below.
red is baseline since 2011
blue is accelerated trendline since 2013
so nothing serious happened
actually piramida, you given me a good idea for a game. let's think of all the possible scenarios that might cause double digits were it to happen. you came up with the first.
1. protocol compromise.
2. mt gox closes down after btc "robbery"
1. protocol compromise.
2. mt gox closes down after btc "robbery"
And the number 2 wins!
(with a little help from #1) 
I have a hunch that the current exponential trend-line will be broken next year.
Please excuse my ignorance if it is clear, but in which way and why?EM has permabear status, didn't you know that?
Onkel Paul
Without being able to prove it, I really feel like you are undershooting there. It's got to be between $400 and $500 in my opinion, unless of course America bans Bitcoin or something like that.
I tend to agree, but the mathematical possible low is 100-200 now. We went up too fast this year, deviated from the exponential growth... exponentially; only bitcoin can seriously overshoot exponential growth
I have a hunch that the current exponential trend-line will be broken next year.
Please excuse my ignorance if it is clear, but in which way and why?Just a hunch. Has something to do with the failure to reach gold parity.
I have a hunch that the current exponential trend-line will be broken next year.
Please excuse my ignorance if it is clear, but in which way and why?
I have a hunch that the current exponential trend-line will be broken next year.
I don't put much stock in chart extrapolation, but I'm curious: Isn't it odd to draw a trendline that the price is constantly above?
I think people are trying to establish a baseline price, that it will never go below.
Exactly, since bitcoin fluctuates wildly and noone can predict how high the speculation would drag it in each rally, I'm more interested in the baseline support price. This has quadrupled yearly since 2011.
sgbett, this seems also valid and the low of 200 makes more sense at this point.
Without being able to prove it, I really feel like you are undershooting there. It's got to be between $400 and $500 in my opinion, unless of course America bans Bitcoin or something like that.
I don't put much stock in chart extrapolation, but I'm curious: Isn't it odd to draw a trendline that the price is constantly above?
I think people are trying to establish a baseline price, that it will never go below.
Exactly, since bitcoin fluctuates wildly and noone can predict how high the speculation would drag it in each rally, I'm more interested in the baseline support price. This has quadrupled yearly since 2011.
sgbett, this seems also valid and the low of 200 makes more sense at this point.
I don't put much stock in chart extrapolation, but I'm curious: Isn't it odd to draw a trendline that the price is constantly above?
I think people are trying to establish a baseline price, that it will never go below.
I don't put much stock in chart extrapolation, but I'm curious: Isn't it odd to draw a trendline that the price is constantly above?
I like this thread. I also like drawing arbitrary lines on charts so I'm throwing this in the mix.
I think the pirate incident created some false lows, so I've moved the line a bit from the original one EM posted.
Based on nothing more than a gut feeling that it seems a bit like 2011, as others have observed, I've replicated a rough projection of the angle of attack and descent, which just happens to be a right angle (well close enough that I can shoehorn one in... if you squint a bit heheh)
So plugging all of this into the patented sgbettojector, shown here as some nice blue dashed lines, gives the end of march, and a low of just under $200.
So convincing is my analysis, that I'll be ignoring it entirely, and holding tight. I can handle riding out an ~80% decline (again) as this will at least guarantee that I won't lock in losses by trading badly.
I'm really good at that (trading badly). Which is probably another reason why this chart needs serving with a good pinch of salt
I think the pirate incident created some false lows, so I've moved the line a bit from the original one EM posted.
Based on nothing more than a gut feeling that it seems a bit like 2011, as others have observed, I've replicated a rough projection of the angle of attack and descent, which just happens to be a right angle (well close enough that I can shoehorn one in... if you squint a bit heheh)
So plugging all of this into the patented sgbettojector, shown here as some nice blue dashed lines, gives the end of march, and a low of just under $200.
So convincing is my analysis, that I'll be ignoring it entirely, and holding tight. I can handle riding out an ~80% decline (again) as this will at least guarantee that I won't lock in losses by trading badly.
I'm really good at that (trading badly). Which is probably another reason why this chart needs serving with a good pinch of salt
open a separate thread, this one is for exponential growth trend of bitcoin, some local external events are of no interest to the greater power of math.
soz dude, but I can give a contribution to this thread. you prob seen this video already but just in case you haven't, I present to you the most interesting lecture on the exponential function given in layman's terms. i would rank at as one of the most scariest videos ever made if you watch it all the way thru:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vII-GxsrR2c
This chart is actually pretty scary because it makes right now look just like 2011.
then it will hit 2xx in about half a year, a possibility. or the rally could get re-ignited at any moment as it did earlier this year.
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