A brief history of exponential trends - page 3.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: Kazu on April 20, 2013, 06:21:24 PM

Trends can be exponential they tend to end up making a reasonable price gain, overshooting, then dropping to the "true" valuation. See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MSFT+Interactive#symbol=msft;range=19860313,20061214;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

OR:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ATVI+Interactive#symbol=atvi;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

Right, but if I were a stock trader I'd short Microsoft. Surface & Windows 8? nooooo! Cheesy

ActiBlizz? They fabricated the biggest disaster yet with DiabloIII

Kazu

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Trends can be exponential they tend to end up making a reasonable price gain, overshooting, then dropping to the "true" valuation. See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MSFT+Interactive#symbol=msft;range=19860313,20061214;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

OR:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ATVI+Interactive#symbol=atvi;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: herzmeister on April 20, 2013, 05:24:18 PM

do not trust statistics you didn't forge yourself. Grin

and the recent price drop is rigged of course. Any gold bug will tell you! It's because they're getting rid of the those funny gold certificates, and get the real stuff instead. Wink

Well, not exactly. That drop is very real.
The issue with actual gold is, gold futures can also include gold which isn't mined yet. The next thing is gold is close to it's hubbert peak so that selloff here comes from a record supply of gold along with a exponential speculative demand due to the expected decline in supply in the next decades. Of course those estimates can be bullshit and gold is really a bubble.

herzmeister

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do not trust statistics you didn't forge yourself. Grin

and the recent price drop is rigged of course. Any gold bug will tell you! It's because they're getting rid of the those funny gold certificates, and get the real stuff instead. Wink

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: herzmeister on April 20, 2013, 04:45:41 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 20, 2013, 03:36:30 PM

I do.
Do you understand mine?

Shit looks much like Gold actually.

too bad you can't sell it. Cheesy

herzmeister

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 20, 2013, 03:36:30 PM

I do.
Do you understand mine?

Shit looks much like Gold actually.

Gatekeeper

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the point being made here is that ElectricMucus is a very sad lame troll, that you really have to pity, because he tries so hard.

Miz4r

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Something can't exponentially increase forever? Well at least I understand the comment now from a previous poster that water is wet.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: Miz4r on April 20, 2013, 03:33:21 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 20, 2013, 03:16:00 PM

Some people will never understand exponential functions I guess. Undecided

Ok let's see if I understand this well.. you claim that the exponential trend upwards will continue to decline right? Well if you wait long enough this is dead obvious because at some point bitcoin will have reached its peak or slow down so the trendline will eventually catch up to that. Maybe I just don't understand the point you are trying to make here. Huh

I do.
Do you understand mine?

Miz4r

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 20, 2013, 03:16:00 PM

Some people will never understand exponential functions I guess. Undecided

Ok let's see if I understand this well.. you claim that the exponential trend upwards will continue to decline right? Well if you wait long enough this is dead obvious because at some point bitcoin will have reached its peak or slow down so the trendline will eventually catch up to that. Maybe I just don't understand the point you are trying to make here. Huh

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: Miz4r on April 20, 2013, 03:13:41 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 20, 2013, 02:02:05 PM

Exactly, it's not a question of if but a question of when. And discarding every other rationale about bubbles you might think it won't be that soon but that still doesn't make it likely to happen.

What a bunch of bullshit. Either bitcoin goes to 0 or it goes to the moon, simple as that. Your charts and trendlines predict absolutely nothing about the future. Once bitcoin truly starts taking off and it looks like it just might, all these so called trends and charts go right out the window and we have a whole new ballgame. Now you may believe this whole bitcoin experiment will fail or won't get widespread recognition, but you can't say this with any amount of certainty just as I can't. So yes, it's entirely a matter of 'if', not 'when'.

Some people will never understand exponential functions I guess. Undecided

Miz4r

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 20, 2013, 02:02:05 PM

Exactly, it's not a question of if but a question of when. And discarding every other rationale about bubbles you might think it won't be that soon but that still doesn't make it likely to happen.

What a bunch of bullshit. Either bitcoin goes to 0 or it goes to the moon, simple as that. Your charts and trendlines predict absolutely nothing about the future. Once bitcoin truly starts taking off and it looks like it just might, all these so called trends and charts go right out the window and we have a whole new ballgame. Now you may believe this whole bitcoin experiment will fail or won't get widespread recognition, but you can't say this with any amount of certainty just as I can't. So yes, it's entirely a matter of 'if', not 'when'.

GotBitCoins

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very interesting ElectricMucus - it puts things in perspective. ty.

amencon

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 20, 2013, 02:06:45 PM

Quote from: amencon on April 20, 2013, 02:06:20 PM

Also, water is wet.

I told ya! Cheesy

hah!

Sesame Street for bitcoiners, brought to you by Electric Mucus.

Now where's our word of the day dude?

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: amencon on April 20, 2013, 02:06:20 PM

Also, water is wet.

I told ya! Cheesy

amencon

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Also, water is wet.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: piramida on April 20, 2013, 01:40:45 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 20, 2013, 01:14:44 PM

That doesn't make any sense, since this line doesn't really touch the lower end of the chart until January 2013.

It does touch, the line drawn approximately since I dont have proper tools with me, you can see it is 2mm below the lows, so you can see them. We'll see, if your prediction is true, by the end of this year price would have travelled below 20 and I've sold all my coins and went elsewhere then.

Exactly, it's not a question of if but a question of when. And discarding every other rationale about bubbles you might think it won't be that soon but that still doesn't make it likely to happen.
This line will suffer the exact same faith as the previous ones, but there is a trick to it:

Come up with a way to estimate the length where it does match the trend and you've got a system. Wink

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 20, 2013, 01:14:44 PM

That doesn't make any sense, since this line doesn't really touch the lower end of the chart until January 2013.

It does touch, the line drawn approximately since I dont have proper tools with me, you can see it is 2mm below the lows, so you can see them. We'll see, if your prediction is true, by the end of this year price would have travelled below 20 and I've sold all my coins and went elsewhere then.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: piramida on April 20, 2013, 01:07:39 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 20, 2013, 01:04:49 PM

Will you be drawing the same line from a even more recent point in the future?

No, I added some text below, which means this line I consider as minimum bitcoin price growth. I don't think it is possible for the price to go below that line, unless something fatal happens to the protocol itself. So far, it has served me well in predicting ends of decline.

That doesn't make any sense, since this line doesn't really touch the lower end of the chart until January 2013.

Yes it will be broken in two possible ways:
Either if the price falls below it.
Or if the growth slows down to below it's slope till the line catches up.

Since this time prices did rise on a hyper-exponential slope I'd rather think it will be the former than the latter.

piramida

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 20, 2013, 01:04:49 PM

Will you be drawing the same line from a even more recent point in the future?

No, I added some text below, which means this line I consider as minimum bitcoin price growth. I don't think it is possible for the price to go below that line, unless something fatal happens to the protocol itself. So far, it has served me well in predicting ends of decline.

Topic: A brief history of exponential trends - page 3. (Read 5506 times)