A brief history of exponential trends - page 4.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: piramida on April 20, 2013, 12:59:38 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 20, 2013, 11:28:12 AM

Do it yourself and post it here. I'm not sure what you are asking me to do, I get the feeling that drawing them differently will have even more stunning results.

Ok, my version of "correct" trendline is this one, confirmed repeatedly over three years:

pic

That's essentially the same line. And it does not make sense to draw it that way on any point before January 2013.
Will you be drawing the same line from a even more recent point in the future?

piramida

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Borsche

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 20, 2013, 11:28:12 AM

Do it yourself and post it here. I'm not sure what you are asking me to do, I get the feeling that drawing them differently will have even more stunning results.

Ok, my version of "correct" trendline is this one, confirmed repeatedly over three years:

If it ever gets broken, I'd become a bear and consider bitcoin idea dying. This trendline means almost exactly 4x minimum possible price each year. That is why I am waiting for the current "crash" to end it's bear run near $30 by autumn.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Some bulls do not draw any charts. Some bulls just know that we have exponentially rising adoption in progress and that the price is directly proportional to number of people involved in the Bitcoin Economy.

Whether it rises 200% or 1000% a year is not making such a huge difference. The destination is the same it is only changing time required to get there.

P.S. Ohh, an so far, it closer to 1000% per year than to 200%.

Well ultimately there can be only one of two outcomes:
A sigmoid curve or a bell shaped one.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: piramida on April 20, 2013, 11:22:57 AM

All is well besides that all of your lines are wrong (drawn from an arbitrary starting point which is not really useful). So all of your conclusions are wrong, as well.

My conclusion is that every exponential trend line gets broken how is that wrong?

Quote from: piramida on April 20, 2013, 11:22:57 AM

Draw some lines through bottoms, then you will see some clearer pictures. Your "current trendline" chart is more or less correct, except that you should consider periods with any trading volume, for example it would make sense to start at Jan 11.

Do it yourself and post it here. I'm not sure what you are asking me to do, I get the feeling that drawing them differently will have even more stunning results.

Quote from: piramida on April 20, 2013, 11:22:57 AM

Trading before that was between about two people.

How do you know? Were you one of them?

piramida

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Borsche

All is well besides that all of your lines are wrong (drawn from an arbitrary starting point which is not really useful). So all of your conclusions are wrong, as well.

Draw some lines through bottoms, then you will see some clearer pictures. Your "current trendline" chart is more or less correct, except that you should consider periods with any trading volume, for example it would make sense to start at Jan 11. Trading before that was between about two people.

If you draw the trendline through bottoms, starting at Jan 11, you will see that right now it goes through ~20$. If the price ever goes below that then yes, exponential growth trendline which quadruples yearly has been broken, but it was not yet, instead it was confirmed four times in three years.

Miz4r

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It all depends if bitcoin manages to break through into the mainstream now. If it doesn't and it fades back into obscurity then yes the current trendline will be broken again. If it does break through the trendline won't be broken again and bitcoin will become the biggest bull market ever in the history of mankind. Personally I'm betting on the latter, although it might take a few more years. Bitcoin's succes also depends on its believers, and you have to be a bull to be a believer (at least long term). Sometimes I think this works just like a self-fulfilling prophecy, it will only become a success if enough people believe it will. If they don't, it won't. Probably not that simple but I do think there's some truth to it. Wink

BitSmile

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You're right. these lines are purely crystal balling, because the price will always come down after a big rally. In 100 years time the line will have a much smaller amplitude, but the price will be much much higher. (if bitcoin is still around)

ElectricMucus

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Here is how the current exponential trend looks on the all time chart.

ElectricMucus

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I like how the bulls use to draw their cute charts of how Bitcoin is going up, uP and UP on a logarithmic chart.

The cute thing about it is that once they are posted that historically means they are going to be broken below that point. I've made this small collection to demonstrate.

From top to bottom these are past exponential trends and how they got broken on the chart below it.
So we have got a new exponential trendline again will it be broken?

Take a guess.... Wink

Topic: A brief history of exponential trends - page 4. (Read 5506 times)