Topic: A brief history of exponential trends - page 2. (Read 5506 times)

This chart is actually pretty scary because it makes right now look just like 2011.

open a separate thread, this one is for exponential growth trend of bitcoin, some local external events are of no interest to the greater power of math.

actually piramida, you given me a good idea for a game. let's think of all the possible scenarios that might cause double digits were it to happen. you came up with the first.

1. protocol compromise.
2. mt gox closes down after btc "robbery"

From this perspective, it seems to make sense that BTC remains stuck at around $500 for a year.
Watch the daily chart: when - after a longer period of stable prizes - prize collapses suddenly, get in with all you are willing to lose. It has been the trigger of the next rally 2 times already.

The best virtue of a sniper is patience. A good trader should abide to the same.

don't be saying shit like that, ya jinxed it now 

Would not count on it; last crash from 266 never hit anywhere close to the rock bottom of $30, so I doubt it would go below 300 this time too. Something much much worse than China has to happen for this; I would think the protocol has to be compromised for the double digits now.

woot! maybe I get some for $100 after all. come on you exponential muthafcking function 

Updating for Jan 1 2014. Looks like we went ballistic this year, and travelled way off our 4x yearly growth target. The absolute possible minimum for this crash is currently around $70, which does not seem realistic anymore. The next minimum, $280 of Jan 1st 2015, seems more realistic, but the pretty picture of exponential growth says $70, so I leave it here.



P.S. $1000 becomes an absolute minumum possible price at around November 2016.

i also like this thread, because it is closer to how I think about this, than most of bull/bear non-sense. And your post is excellent.

Your take seems very reasonable to me. This is what I expect as well, and why I am playing the long  (patient) game with bitcoin. Series of explosive exponential bulls (over the next couple of years) as more people start to see the potential and usefulness of bitcoin, and new services come on line,and adoption gets more ubiquitous. Each likely followed by crashes and consolidations. Some of these crashes may be followed by extended lows below recent support (meaning many month recoveries), and others may hit support and consolidate there before going higher. All depending - as you said - on who is in the game at the time and the fundamental view at the moment.

This time? We shall see. I'll be ready with cash if we consolidate much lower and will hang on tight if it keeps moving up. Ready for anything...or so I think

That makes sense actually but it isn't really a clear trend.... Drawing this curve afterwards is easy but make it such that it actually predicts the bottom is much, much harder.
If the slope of the curve asymptotically approaches zero it could be possible to hold true. If not it could just become worthless again.

Finally asymptotic laws trend to break down into chaos quite often, especially if they are tested near it's limits...

*I replaced your chart on imgur so that GotBitCoins can see it. (Get a more sane browser though!)

I can't see your chart - it's blocked saying 'adult and pornography'...

my version is this one:
the bottom line is not a straight line it's a curve
so now i see the bottom at 22 USD
it worked really well for me at the last touch of the line ;-)

I do believe it may go faster at times, but it will be returning to the slow growth line when "omg bitcoin is dead" every now and then And to have all tax haven money in bitcoin it should first earn a solid reputation among even the harshest critics, which could easily take dozens of years. The 5-digit or higher numbers  would be possible - once we have real economy (producer chains operating completely in bitcoin, with all manufacturing, parts, advertisement and mining prices not tied to fiat but to bitcoin) - and this would also take many years of gradual shifting. These are all very rigid areas to change overnight.

Interesting. This indicates it will be several years before we reach mainstream adoption valuations (~$10,000-$100,000), whereas the 2013 exponential trend has us reaching mainstream early next year. That makes this slower trend look more realistic.

However, this common estimate at BTC price upon reaching mainstream adoption seems like it could be an artifact of the common misconception that Bitcoin derives the bulk of its value from its medium-of-exchange usage. Since it quite obviously derives the vast part of its valuation from its store-of-value functionality, mainstream adoption figures should be far, far higher. Trace Mayer has a figure of several million dollars per bitcoin just to accoint for tax haven accounts all being shifted to Bitcoin. Not to mention everything else. And not to mention the massive efficiency gains Bitcoin will bring about. With all that factored in, this slow exponential growth seems like it could take 20 years to reach mainstream.

Furthermore, adoption curves are S-shaped, meaning it could actually take much longer than this (~50 years) to reach mainstream adoption at this slow rate. This brings us back to the current trendline (doubling every 5 weeks until inflection) as looking quite good again.

I really appreciate this thread.

It gives a mult-years perspective on what's going on -

It seems like in the case of the BitCoin it's a war between the enthusiasm of new technology and the speculative mania that can burn it.

We know that many times when a new technology is introduced - we have this wave of early adopters that are so enthusiastic about it that they take the price up exponentially. Then after it cools down, it starts rising again slowly till there's public acceptance.

It seems like in the case of BitCoin we are witnessing not only one exponent followed by public acceptance, but more like waves and waves of public acceptance, each time going into exponential Mania and then dropping again and then drawing a bigger circle of acceptance and then mania again and then drop and so on.

So it makes sense that if (IF) BitCoin makes it - then we shall witness every 2 years an Exponential Mania, followed by despair.

If so then we are right now at the Bear following the Mania - that should last many months till the price shall become undervalued again and the chartists will have to adjust their exponent...

(Specifically right now we are in an unsustained post Mania suckers rally)

Yes, one needs lots of patience, to sit on the sidelines for several months ready with cash to get a good entry price - but then it seems like almost the sky is the limit...

GotBitCoins.

Don't worry Im short Acti. Not MSFT yet though, the windows 8 mini-fail is already priced in, and the next big move will probably come with windows blue and that looks legit. Also office 365 is super good and will likely get them more revenue because its a subscription and thus can't be pirated.

appreciate that answer... So your argument is really just your opinion about the growth path of the btc (not a structural argument about the impossibility of exponential adoption).. Ok. got it. Thanks.

ok well that was kind of lazy of me.

Take that microsoft stock for example. This was a change over a long time period and in the long run bitcoin might look like that too. This was fueld by real growth and real sales. (Duh, it's Microsoft, they still have contracts with about every OEM, business software producers and hold a near monopoly in that field still.
Yet, in case of Microsoft I think they are over the peak, but I am sure there are better examples than that.

The peak you are seeing is actually the .com bubble which took many casualties and microsoft was one of the winners. In terms of bitcoin the bubble is fueld by the many upstarts which come and go with a few successful remaining. Overall I think the valuation of Bitcoin will more resemble the nasdaq than microsoft.

Come on. That's all you got??    Totally irrelevant response.

I was seriously looking forward to your response here. Basically to check if you believe what you are saying, and have a consistent argument - therefore worth considering further ....or if you are just enjoying the attention, and will say anything to disturb the confused and scared.

So...what is your response to other exponential adoption curves that have turned out well?

Atleast those aren't log charts...

Which make insane things look way too sane...