A trading chart does not play out to 100%

0xBitcoins

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Quote from: Fatunad on November 29, 2020, 02:35:24 PM

When replying to a thread, you should always consider on looking at on the date on how long its been inactive or have no discussions or whatsoever because you are just simply
necrobumping up this post.

You are right but this thread was created by him so I guess he has all the right to reply on it when he feels someone has made a reply and he should answer back or share his opinion.

Charts don't pay out that is right but they pay out more often than the random prediction and if we don't go by charts and market news then we are simply gambling in the name of trading so I guess while charts are no as effective as they are in stock market but yeah it is better to use them still.

Fatunad

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Quote from: Lorokan on November 29, 2020, 02:10:51 PM

Quote from: MCobian on July 02, 2020, 06:51:08 PM

Therefore we cannot rely on trading charts when trading, because the results of technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not
guarantee 100% accurate. Possible 50% -80% accuracy of the results of trading charts, and of course this fact is very risky for those
who rely on trading chart. Sometimes we need experience, instinct, knowledge and luck to succeed in trading.

I think you are right; because i realized that most times; when you have an idea of what i to happen; movements figured and other details sorted; a news could be out and then every analysis crashes and price dumps. With experience; and good instinct, i support that one can always take profits most times.

Hey buddy!

When replying to a thread, you should always consider on looking at on the date on how long its been inactive or have no discussions or whatsoever because you are just simply
necrobumping up this post.

On topic replay that trading chart doesnt not play out to 100%. Of course, theres no such thing about 100% precision on predicting price movement in the market.
If theres anyone who would able to do that then they are the richest man on this planet.

Lorokan

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Quote from: MCobian on July 02, 2020, 06:51:08 PM

Therefore we cannot rely on trading charts when trading, because the results of technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not
guarantee 100% accurate. Possible 50% -80% accuracy of the results of trading charts, and of course this fact is very risky for those
who rely on trading chart. Sometimes we need experience, instinct, knowledge and luck to succeed in trading.

I think you are right; because i realized that most times; when you have an idea of what i to happen; movements figured and other details sorted; a news could be out and then every analysis crashes and price dumps. With experience; and good instinct, i support that one can always take profits most times.

SARA ISLAM

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Technical analysis is the process of scrutinizing data from the past and reaching a conclusion, and fundamental analysis is important to know what is happening in that currency now, to trade two things. In my opinion, applying both technical and fundamental together will increase the success rate.

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Quote from: MCobian on July 02, 2020, 06:51:08 PM

Therefore we cannot rely on trading charts when trading, because the results of technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not
guarantee 100% accurate. Possible 50% -80% accuracy of the results of trading charts, and of course this fact is very risky for those
who rely on trading chart. Sometimes we need experience, instinct, knowledge and luck to succeed in trading.

No, many think that the accuracy of your trades is everything and that could not be further from the truth, remember why people trade they do it to obtain money, if you have a strategy that you have backtested that can generate profits even if it is only accurate 80% of the time then it is really not important that you are missing 20% of your trades, the important thing is that you are earning money, in fact I have seen systems with an accuracy below 50% and you can still be profitable with them if you have good money management skills.

Freddy11

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That is very much obvious thing as there is no way chart could be 100%, so we have to be very careful. I always believe risk management is the most important factor and reason behind one getting success. I always find it simple through FreshForex with their 101% tradable deposit bonus.

Oilacris

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Quote from: Kelvinid on July 03, 2020, 06:00:12 PM

Quote from: MCobian on July 02, 2020, 06:51:08 PM

Therefore we cannot rely on trading charts when trading, because the results of technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not
guarantee 100% accurate. Possible 50% -80% accuracy of the results of trading charts, and of course this fact is very risky for those
who rely on trading chart. Sometimes we need experience, instinct, knowledge and luck to succeed in trading.

The bolded one is very important in trading, not a chart or TA's we need to acquire in trading coz these all things aren't of big help. Decision making is somewhat a big role in trading and that is quite coming from those things above.

It is to say that traders aren't particular to that chart's and rely upon on it, the trend changing all the time and we can't either say that what happens last year (the same date) or even last month will actually be happening today. Have nothing to see that for sure and that is the reason that we can't just say trading charts will be helping a lot.

You got the point but you cant really deny that majority of traders are making use of that technical aspect.Okay lets say that this isnt important

then how do people do deal up with the market without plotting any trend lines or support or resistances? Just by doing some random guess?

I dont think so thats why people do keep on speculating basing of into their analysis which i do say much better than making out positions

just because your guts do tell you to do so.

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Quote from: MCobian on July 02, 2020, 06:51:08 PM

Therefore we cannot rely on trading charts when trading, because the results of technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not
guarantee 100% accurate. Possible 50% -80% accuracy of the results of trading charts, and of course this fact is very risky for those
who rely on trading chart. Sometimes we need experience, instinct, knowledge and luck to succeed in trading.

The bolded one is very important in trading, not a chart or TA's we need to acquire in trading coz these all things aren't of big help. Decision making is somewhat a big role in trading and that is quite coming from those things above.

It is to say that traders aren't particular to that chart's and rely upon on it, the trend changing all the time and we can't either say that what happens last year (the same date) or even last month will actually be happening today. Have nothing to see that for sure and that is the reason that we can't just say trading charts will be helping a lot.

MCobian

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Therefore we cannot rely on trading charts when trading, because the results of technical analysis and fundamental analysis are not
guarantee 100% accurate. Possible 50% -80% accuracy of the results of trading charts, and of course this fact is very risky for those
who rely on trading chart. Sometimes we need experience, instinct, knowledge and luck to succeed in trading.

htsy585

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Your observations are correct, trade charts can never give 100% accuracy because charts only show traends of previous price movements. People however, have mastered chart trends to the extent they can determine the next trend the force of demand and supply will take. I think it applys to even the TA And Price analyst because on many occasions, users have complained about losing cash because the signal dropped by the analyst turns out inacurate

cytpoway121

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Honestly, you do not need to have a 100% chart records; be it only for trades or profits because i believe we cannot always be 100% correct. So i usually advice that we ensure that we make profits most of the time, take calculated risks; and remember to always do your research. Sometimes in trading; it is better you avoid the market totally than trading at loss; have that in mind as a guide too.

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Quote from: sweetbet on June 29, 2020, 07:24:23 PM

Charts rarely play out the way they're drawn. Anything can happen to change the course of the chartered course. Bad news, missed deadlines, BTC dump, etc etc. Fundamentals are far more important to pay attention to.

The fundamentals of an asset are important if you are a positional trader and want to take a very long position in an asset, but if you want to be a trader that only holds his coins for a few hours or days then technical analysis is way more important, the variations on the supply and the demand are way more important the shorter the period you choose to trade, besides even if the fundamentals are important it does not really give you an idea of how big or small the next movement will be so you still need TA in order to figure it out.

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Quote from: Utoy101 on June 29, 2020, 06:27:28 PM

I couldn't agree more, charts are not always acurate when it comes with reading of cryptocurrency because many factors contributes to the price movement of a coin with major focuss on the force of demand and supply

That's a wrong impression about the trading chart. Charts will never tell you the accurate thing to happen but the "possible" thing that might happen.

Charts are useful because it will show you exactly the current activity at a given trend. Because of that, it will serve as a good reference on what to do next by drawing the possible outcome. It served a purpose.

It's obvious that there are other factors that affect the price movement so rely on those factors too as much as possible aside from chart readings.

sweetbet

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Charts rarely play out the way they're drawn. Anything can happen to change the course of the chartered course. Bad news, missed deadlines, BTC dump, etc etc. Fundamentals are far more important to pay attention to.

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

I couldn't agree more, charts are not always acurate when it comes with reading and predicting of cryptocurrency because many factors contributes to the price movement of a coin with major focuss on the force of demand and supply as well as other activities from the the devs towards developing the project. Sudden fud or related events can also bring about unexpected price movements which would go totally against the readings of the charts

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most...

Even life itself has a limit to guarantee. Remember, no one is promised tomorrow. 70% is bloated. I think it is a bit lower than that.

Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

That's why we are mere humans. It takes an immortal being to know all that's yet to happen.

Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Well, I am a TA guy but that doesn't mean I don't pay attention to news. News will only speedily drive price to meet and perfect TA.

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Naturally. There isn't only one future in a sense, and a trading chart could only show one future. There can be said to be an n amount of futures in the universe, and no matter what, one just can't simply predict what would happen in the next minute, hour, day, week, etc. Trading charts are something that let you make a decision based on what you see, but that doesn't mean that it would be the only basis you have on making a decision. It's not like you'd decide to enter a school for pilots just cause you saw your crush there right? And even if you did, that'd be called impulsive decisions. Even having 2 or 3 factors while deciding could still be said as an impulsive one.

Quote from: pawanjain on June 26, 2020, 10:56:39 AM

I guess even 70% is a little too much ain't it ?

Imo, yes. Though you can at the very least put it at the minimum of 50%, since if you were to look at it as to whether you'd only lose or win, chances are 50/50 no matter what TA's you read, no matter how many analysis you do.

Tahsin Kabir Kollol

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While trading chats help us trade successfully most of the time but it is true that it may not always be accurate. Trading charts provide traders with an overview of trading but trading is affected by many other materials. At present, the political decisions of different countries and the standing of big traders have also affected it so the trading chart direction may change suddenly. Although trading charts play a helpful role in trading, some big traders organizations make unreal market overviews and try to make fool other traders through it and this is usually lesser known and is more noticeable in the case of low volume altcoins. So in case of trading, I think it is better to trade by observing the trading chart as well as other ancillary matters.

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Let me give you a little tips, when reading charts it's a good spot to also have FA At a standby. Don't follow up trends that indicates buying up instantly without proper analysis.

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Quote from: crwth on June 23, 2020, 09:59:50 PM

Quote from: South Park on June 21, 2020, 12:11:20 PM

This is where backtesting enters the stage, since it can allow you to test your strategy against hundreds of markets at different points in history and see how your strategy will perform, if it performs positively then it should be expected that it performs positively over the long term as well if you implemented it, but as you may guess the only way to backtest your strategy in such a way will be to be able to get the necessary data and create some code to do it for you, otherwise the backtest will be incomplete and full of biases.

Even if you backed tested a couple of times or even 1 million times, it’s not a guarantee that you could get that same success rate due to previous times. Something could occur almost the same way, but it’s not 100% the same. Pine scripts are being made for those kinds of testing, but it’s still not perfect.

You are right, it is impossible for the same market conditions to repeat themselves, however if you choose a pool of assets that are representative of several different markets and you perform a backtest over a period of time long enough to have covered many different economic conditions then if your strategy gives positive results then it means it is way more likely that it can give profits in the future if you perform the same strategy, obviously no one can give an assurance that will be the case but at least a trader or investor doing this should be way more confident about the performance of his strategy.

However there are many biases that we need to be aware when doing something like this, one of the most obvious is the survivorship bias, if during your efforts to backtest a system you only pick good stocks or coins then almost any strategy will come out on top and it will seem to be profitable when the truth is the person doing the test is affecting the results before the test takes place.

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