A trading chart does not play out to 100% - page 2.

pawanjain

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

I guess even 70% is a little too much ain't it ?
Fundamental/Technical analysis works good in the stock market but the same doesn't work so well in the crypto market in my opinion.
Other than FA/TA there are many other factors which we should consider before trading/investing in crypto.
Even after that, there's no 100% accuracy of the market to behave according to your analysis because many times it just goes against us.
Holding the asset patiently and tweaking our strategy accordingly can help us gain profits though.

thesmallgod

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There is what is called a predictive model. It allows users to be able to predict future possible outcomes using existing data. Through previous charts, you can able to predict future occurrences but that does not mean the prediction will be accurate. At a particular point on the chart, there are conditions and these conditions are not constant. The reason why people always mention importance of knowing how to read the chart is to be familiar with how trading works

jrrsparkles

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Trading cryptos based on analysis doesn't always give you 100% success its just because its highly volatile so analysis will more suot to stock market but here in crypto currency lot of factors decide the market movement so no one can what will happen to market in the next minute.

crwth

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Quote from: South Park on June 21, 2020, 12:11:20 PM

One of the problems with many traders is that they want a trading system that is highly accurate and that is very difficult to achieve, it seems traders cannot simply accept that they are going to be wrong on their predictions and worry more about that than about their stated goal of making money from the markets.

It is not just traders that want an accurate system but also the investors where they could make money out of it. It’s impossible to have a 100% Accuracy, and no one will ever achieve it just because of the unpredictability of the market.

Quote from: South Park on June 21, 2020, 12:11:20 PM

This is where backtesting enters the stage, since it can allow you to test your strategy against hundreds of markets at different points in history and see how your strategy will perform, if it performs positively then it should be expected that it performs positively over the long term as well if you implemented it, but as you may guess the only way to backtest your strategy in such a way will be to be able to get the necessary data and create some code to do it for you, otherwise the backtest will be incomplete and full of biases.

Even if you backed tested a couple of times or even 1 million times, it’s not a guarantee that you could get that same success rate due to previous times. Something could occur almost the same way, but it’s not 100% the same. Pine scripts are being made for those kinds of testing, but it’s still not perfect.

dunfida

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Quote from: CaVO32 on June 22, 2020, 05:28:49 PM

Quote from: Lorokan on June 22, 2020, 04:21:01 PM

Quote from: Desscount on June 22, 2020, 12:49:11 PM

Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

in my opinion the Chart affects only 30%, Fundamental 20%, and News 50% or Fomo, that's the condition like now

You have basically listed out basic features.
But do you know that you can realize and categorize all this functions on a trade chart?

All you need to do is get a wide screen, then check a 6m trafe charts and you can pick out the facts easily.

Even if you integrate all those factors in your trading charts, you maybe get the whole picture of it but not precisely getting its actual direction. It is very hard to predict a chart accurately even if you have all the factors on hand as you don't even know how exactly people react to news/rumours, etc. Very hard to grasp that in your charts. But basic knowledge of TAs and other strategies would be of great help especially if you are an active trader.

Everything would really be relevant and needs to be learned rather than having nothing while you do trade and of course not all would give out
100% precision or effectiveness into your trade but as said this is a helpful tool for you to have at least have some idea on what would be the
next steps you would take.There are other things needed though for this to be more effective and just like what others said this would particularly
talks about news and rumours. Market neither do react or not into these circumstances.

It might not play out 100% but its better to have this kind of analysis than do trade randomly.

rexxarofmoknathal

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TA and charts reading is not by any means THE most important factor. So that's definitely not representing 70% of the trading prediction method, it is however a good indicator but for good use it must be used in conjunction with other factors which isn't read in charts I'm afraid.

These include but not limited to news, projects, especially if these are direct competitors in both finance and/or crypto industry.

CaVO32

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 22, 2020, 04:21:01 PM

Quote from: Desscount on June 22, 2020, 12:49:11 PM

Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

in my opinion the Chart affects only 30%, Fundamental 20%, and News 50% or Fomo, that's the condition like now

You have basically listed out basic features.
But do you know that you can realize and categorize all this functions on a trade chart?

All you need to do is get a wide screen, then check a 6m trafe charts and you can pick out the facts easily.

Even if you integrate all those factors in your trading charts, you maybe get the whole picture of it but not precisely getting its actual direction. It is very hard to predict a chart accurately even if you have all the factors on hand as you don't even know how exactly people react to news/rumours, etc. Very hard to grasp that in your charts. But basic knowledge of TAs and other strategies would be of great help especially if you are an active trader.

Lorokan

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Quote from: Desscount on June 22, 2020, 12:49:11 PM

Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

in my opinion the Chart affects only 30%, Fundamental 20%, and News 50% or Fomo, that's the condition like now

You have basically listed out basic features.
But do you know that you can realize and categorize all this functions on a trade chart?

All you need to do is get a wide screen, then check a 6m trafe charts and you can pick out the facts easily.

Blue_oxen

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Quote from: Botnake on June 22, 2020, 07:07:07 AM

70% is too high IMO, maybe 40% because this market has always been hard to predict.

I believe 60% comes from the news and the rumors, that's the bigger factor that could move the market, so this FUD and FOMO happens.
It happened in the past and it's still happening now, notice when the market move 20% to 30% in just 24 hours or less, that cannot be predicted using the chart, but if you know the rumor and the news, you might see it coming.

True! 70% is way too big for just one prediction method. Despite you do all the work you can, combine all of the analysis that you do, you can only predict up to 70-80% of the market. Charts analysis can't guarantee ups to 70% itself. There are other factors such as news, rumors, projects, and whales!

Desscount

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ComboLabs

Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

in my opinion the Chart affects only 30%, Fundamental 20%, and News 50% or Fomo, that's the condition like now

Botnake

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70% is too high IMO, maybe 40% because this market has always been hard to predict.

I believe 60% comes from the news and the rumors, that's the bigger factor that could move the market, so this FUD and FOMO happens.
It happened in the past and it's still happening now, notice when the market move 20% to 30% in just 24 hours or less, that cannot be predicted using the chart, but if you know the rumor and the news, you might see it coming.

Aaroenz0r

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Quote from: Oasisman on June 13, 2020, 02:42:56 AM

every trader has their own understanding of the possible impact of the current news and happenings to their analyses.
but TAs will give them the basic idea where the charts are heading to so coupled with their understanding of the market, they will create possible trading movements. but of course, it really does not play out to 100%, there will be always a miss
if one can always accurately predict the market, i think by now they will be famous and rich for what they achieved. but i dont think someone can achieve such status as there are a lot of factors involved. knowledge in TAs is just your basic weapon here

True! TAs can't help you to predict 100% what gonna happens in the market! So do others skills. There's nothing can give you the correctly direction of the market movement. That's why we call our market is unpredictable! However, having the ability to analyze the charts is quite important! The more you know, the better!

AmoreJaz

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Quote from: Mahanton on June 21, 2020, 05:08:57 PM

Quote from: Oasisman on June 21, 2020, 05:02:17 PM

Quote from: South Park on June 16, 2020, 10:44:41 AM

Quote from: Oasisman on June 13, 2020, 02:42:56 AM

These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

You are half right, you can trade the news and make money that way but that will require to not miss a single news and to be able to act immediately without delay to take advantage of the news before anyone else, however I do not agree with your observation about technical analysis, in my opinion it is very useful the problem is that most people are unable to come up with a coherent strategy based on it and that is why they keep losing their money to other traders.

TA's will help you guide the possible next movement If you're totally aware of the fundamental news and happenings in crypto space. That is the reason why I said to my last statement that TA's won't get you anywhere when you're using this tool alone, and that you need relevant information that could help you decipher the next possible price direction. I guess this is what "coherent strategy" sounds like?

You do got some point but we know that fundamentals doesnt show up from time to time thats why there are really times that we would really rely into TA's alone.
This is better rather than making up trades without using any analysis neither TA or Funda because that would really be just like simply a gambling.
Dont expect for high precision of success because it will always vary on each trader on how they do decide up into things and we do have different level or learning and skills
thats why when you look to others they do seems profitable even using the same technique or style.

every trader has their own understanding of the possible impact of the current news and happenings to their analyses.
but TAs will give them the basic idea where the charts are heading to so coupled with their understanding of the market, they will create possible trading movements. but of course, it really does not play out to 100%, there will be always a miss
if one can always accurately predict the market, i think by now they will be famous and rich for what they achieved. but i dont think someone can achieve such status as there are a lot of factors involved. knowledge in TAs is just your basic weapon here

Mahanton

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Quote from: Oasisman on June 21, 2020, 05:02:17 PM

Quote from: South Park on June 16, 2020, 10:44:41 AM

Quote from: Oasisman on June 13, 2020, 02:42:56 AM

These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

You are half right, you can trade the news and make money that way but that will require to not miss a single news and to be able to act immediately without delay to take advantage of the news before anyone else, however I do not agree with your observation about technical analysis, in my opinion it is very useful the problem is that most people are unable to come up with a coherent strategy based on it and that is why they keep losing their money to other traders.

TA's will help you guide the possible next movement If you're totally aware of the fundamental news and happenings in crypto space. That is the reason why I said to my last statement that TA's won't get you anywhere when you're using this tool alone, and that you need relevant information that could help you decipher the next possible price direction. I guess this is what "coherent strategy" sounds like?

You do got some point but we know that fundamentals doesnt show up from time to time thats why there are really times that we would really rely into TA's alone.
This is better rather than making up trades without using any analysis neither TA or Funda because that would really be just like simply a gambling.
Dont expect for high precision of success because it will always vary on each trader on how they do decide up into things and we do have different level or learning and skills
thats why when you look to others they do seems profitable even using the same technique or style.

Oasisman

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Quote from: South Park on June 16, 2020, 10:44:41 AM

Quote from: Oasisman on June 13, 2020, 02:42:56 AM

These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

You are half right, you can trade the news and make money that way but that will require to not miss a single news and to be able to act immediately without delay to take advantage of the news before anyone else, however I do not agree with your observation about technical analysis, in my opinion it is very useful the problem is that most people are unable to come up with a coherent strategy based on it and that is why they keep losing their money to other traders.

TA's will help you guide the possible next movement If you're totally aware of the fundamental news and happenings in crypto space. That is the reason why I said to my last statement that TA's won't get you anywhere when you're using this tool alone, and that you need relevant information that could help you decipher the next possible price direction. I guess this is what "coherent strategy" sounds like?

mersal

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Of someone is able to predict the market at 100% accuracy then the whole crypto market won't be exists now which means 70% is a good value to learn about chart analysis and other factors like news,crypto events, bearish or bullish price trend and lot others as well.

South Park

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Quote from: crwth on June 17, 2020, 04:07:03 AM

Trading is one of those things that you need luck, to begin with. Most of the time, depending on your strategy, you could either win or lose on a trade. So that's the reason why there is "Backtesting" involved. If it played out in the past, you could possibly do the same thing, but it's still not a full-fledged outcome where your winning percent is the same. I think you could check it in the long run too.

No matter how much you are good at charting, it still boils down to the point where you cannot accurately predict the possible price trend, just like human behaviors.

One of the problems with many traders is that they want a trading system that is highly accurate and that is very difficult to achieve, it seems traders cannot simply accept that they are going to be wrong on their predictions and worry more about that than about their stated goal of making money from the markets.

This is where backtesting enters the stage, since it can allow you to test your strategy against hundreds of markets at different points in history and see how your strategy will perform, if it performs positively then it should be expected that it performs positively over the long term as well if you implemented it, but as you may guess the only way to backtest your strategy in such a way will be to be able to get the necessary data and create some code to do it for you, otherwise the backtest will be incomplete and full of biases.

Shasha80

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Of course, trading is required to do fundamental and technical analysts, even though it only predicts a market of around 70%.
For me it is enough to make decisions in trading, the rest depends on instinct and luck. That's why crypto trading is called high risk,
because of its reality we cannot read charts with a percentage of 100% accuracy. Even professional traders often suffer losses,
that's because no one can be 100% accurate when analyzing a trading chart.

el kaka22

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I have been trying to learn more technical analysis and I have studied indicators a lot, not just here but I would also like to make some forex trading as well since it looked so much fun. On contrary to popular moving from forex to crypto I would be moving from crypto to forex (not leaving crypto, just adding forex on it).

However on all my training I have done the paper trading method that was suggested, as in check something and see if there is any moment to buy or sell and when you hit that just write it on piece of paper like you would do a trade and when it reaches the other side check what happens. In all my tries I have failed, thank god I was doing paper trading and not real one because I would lost a lot of money. TA looks a bit too confusing for me.

Ann Impas

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Even at 70% you can be called a pro. Because you can't just predict what will happen in the market, how will it react. Even patterns in some cases got denied by the market and goes the other way. But imagine if you have a 100% chance of the market cooperating imagine how much you would earn daily even only with the basic information.

Topic: A trading chart does not play out to 100% - page 2. (Read 1032 times)