A trading chart does not play out to 100% - page 3.

mnporter2001

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

TA will help us trade better in the short term and make profits faster. but if you can combine both FA and TA, the percentage of your winnings will be higher, but even if the probability is 90%, the market will still be able to go back at any time. Therefore, we need to have strict trading experience and capital management plan. Trading without strict capital management is like going to battle without armor. You can succeed in many transactions but only 1 failure can take away all your previous success.

nelson4lov

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I've read through all replies and I've come to the conclusion that:

— Technical analysis with charts is one of many ways to predict market outcome.

– A serious trader shouldn't depend on charts alone. There are other factors that increases the odds of winning our trades.

– Technical analysis is still a useful tool regardless of its shortcomings.

Personally, I'm a big fan of technical analysis with charts. It does more than just showing different lines on a chart. It gives an idea of what the market condition is at any point. That said, It should be noted that TA is just one of many tools in every trader's toolbox.

Yamifoud

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Quote from: btccoffee on June 17, 2020, 09:05:58 AM

Actually trading chart do around maybe 50% only works because this is just a tools for you to predicts but do not just rely on this tools you have to find some other tools in also like watching some news about the currency you are trading specially other currency like forex and stocks news are more accurate.

In fact, many traders don't rely on it but rather to focus on an actual market event. And one reason why charts aren't a big help for traders is that some things happen before that aren't happening today.

Yeah, this is just a tool to make TA's and so we don't have to get it wrong and misunderstood it uses. That is why we can't simply put blame on these charts of our losses because, in the first place, this thing can't give you a guarantee of returns. And if you keep relying on the chart in trading, you will simply ignore the other tools that are more helpful than this https://digitexfutures.com/blog/5-killer-cryptocurrency-trading-tools-have/.

beerlover

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This is a lifelong battle between people who do TA and people who do not do TA and each of them calls each other names. I am here to tell both sides that they are both right about what they are thinking. Yes TA is not a solution and yes just by looking at charts you can't make a profit, there is no way that would work because if it worked people would just do TA and make profit constantly without ever losing money in their life.

However TA is not futile neither, without TA you have no idea what the direction of crypto is and that is why you should do TA to have a base to work with. What the true method should be is to do TA but not trade just because of that, just use the TA you do as a base and build on top of that with every other research you can make on the coin.

btccoffee

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Actually trading chart do around maybe 50% only works because this is just a tools for you to predicts but do not just rely on this tools you have to find some other tools in also like watching some news about the currency you are trading specially other currency like forex and stocks news are more accurate.

Harlot

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You can't really put a success rate on technical analysis since everything can go in the opposite direction even if you are 100% sure of your analysis. I've seen this in a lot of time both in my personal trading and the analysis of other people where they go the complete opposite of their predicted move, that's why for any trader that is prepared they always have an exit strategy where they can just jump out of a trader when their analysis fails. Simply there is still no guarantee that you will win every trade just because you know technical analysis you still have to plan your entry and exit everytime.

Ridwan Fauzi

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Buy the rumors and sell on the news, that is something that I followed so far. I just come to entry when there is a good rumors come and that's fine if the information just mentioned bitcoin only noy crypto currency as a whole. Because in my experience as long as the good news come for bitcoin and we will see most altcoin market will follow it. Yeah, that is my benchmark to do day trading or swing trading, buy a bitcoin or some altcoin and let them increase in a few days and I'll back soon to take my profit. Actually I'm not a good man to make technical analyst but so far I still get a profit by doing that.

crwth

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Trading is one of those things that you need luck, to begin with. Most of the time, depending on your strategy, you could either win or lose on a trade. So that's the reason why there is "Backtesting" involved. If it played out in the past, you could possibly do the same thing, but it's still not a full-fledged outcome where your winning percent is the same. I think you could check it in the long run too.

No matter how much you are good at charting, it still boils down to the point where you cannot accurately predict the possible price trend, just like human behaviors.

Blue_oxen

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Quote from: DoublerHunter on June 16, 2020, 05:49:04 PM

Quote from: Kelvinid on June 16, 2020, 05:42:20 PM

~snip~
Charts just only a tool to help you in creating our own TA but you can't think that it warrants you for a specific way you go. because what happens today it definitely won't happen again in the future.

^ Definitely right and a perfect answer. Charts are just an indicator where you can use also as a reference in making TA. But this does not mean will give correct speculation that results in 100% in predicting the price. A lot of traders using this, but you cannot rely on this tool because we know that the trading chart result will not repeatedly have results. There are certain tools that you can use if making TA not only the chat, probably news is also the best alternative in making TA. Nevertheless, the market will remain unpredictable.

Agree! The market is unpredictable. However, the charts are the best indicator that we have to kind of predict what's going on in the market. It's better to know something than nothing. Chart analyzing skills are still critical to traders. Traders who know chart analyzing are more likely to earn profits and avoid losing money than others!

DoublerHunter

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Quote from: Kelvinid on June 16, 2020, 05:42:20 PM

~snip~
Charts just only a tool to help you in creating our own TA but you can't think that it warrants you for a specific way you go. because what happens today it definitely won't happen again in the future.

^ Definitely right and a perfect answer. Charts are just an indicator where you can use also as a reference in making TA. But this does not mean will give correct speculation that results in 100% in predicting the price. A lot of traders using this, but you cannot rely on this tool because we know that the trading chart result will not repeatedly have results. There are certain tools that you can use if making TA not only the chat, probably news is also the best alternative in making TA. Nevertheless, the market will remain unpredictable.

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

TBH, I don't come into trading relying upon with charts. We know the situation already and the market will change often times that people can't predict it. Charts are only showing clearly in past events but not for the incoming, only just pure speculation which is actually out from reality. If you come into trading and relying on this, you can't expect passive trades but instead, it brings your trades at high risk of losing.

Charts just only a tool to help you in creating our own TA but you can't think that it warrants you for a specific way you go. because what happens today it definitely won't happen again in the future.

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Personally i believe a lot of factors contributes greatly to price movement of cryptocurrency with the major factor being the force of demand and supply, they're are quite some experts who trade with accurate predictions by reading the charts at different level but these sets of people are very few. And even after having a full grasp of the chart, other factors like development news, partnerships, more prominent listings can still come in play that to alter the price movement inturn making chart analysis fails often at times and that's why there's a saying that analysis can only take you so far in trader, after that you'll have to take a few leaps of faiths

LbtalkL

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Those TA and charts, are just guide for you to make your decision and it is not really guaranteed to be correct all the time. Yes, it helps sometimes but some traders are just only basing only on news. Even the chart is bullish but it suddenly got bad news with facts, for sure that particular coin will go down. That is what I have observed in the past few years.

sheenshane

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Isn't 100% that gives an accurate answer, but at least you have an indicator when you're building your TA and FA. This is might your tool is solving your analysis in trading because in analysis, IMO, it starts with fundamental and next to your technical analysis.

No one will give accurate results in any analysis because the market is unpredictable. Relevant news will somehow give help in having analysis but the problem is not all are relevant news especially those aren't trusted news sites.

South Park

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Quote from: Oasisman on June 13, 2020, 02:42:56 AM

These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

You are half right, you can trade the news and make money that way but that will require to not miss a single news and to be able to act immediately without delay to take advantage of the news before anyone else, however I do not agree with your observation about technical analysis, in my opinion it is very useful the problem is that most people are unable to come up with a coherent strategy based on it and that is why they keep losing their money to other traders.

FanEagle

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There cannot be anything to make you sure about 100% accurate of future movements. This is because, we are all predicting the future of market based on past movements but future is simply influenced by many other factors and not just limited to past. So, there cannot be any tool/chart available to get you 100% accurate predictions.

Moreover most tools and charts are known for lagging in providing any clear signal. It means they may show you just what happened and you need to interpret what is going to happen which cannot be accurate all the times because it would be just a guess work but based on past things (and not purely 100% guess work). Also, I have seen some advanced tools are "overwriting", it means for example will show you buy signal at $10100 levels but markets is trading at $10400 levels (I tried to wait to buy at $10100 but it showed target reached at $10800).

Oasisman

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

Charts is irrelevant to the price movement, and it's only pure predictions base on the chart patterns.
70% seems a bit higher percentage.
You have to put this always in your mind. No successful trader would ever disclose essential information on how you trade with a minimal rate of lossing funds.
These TA's won't get you anywhere if you're using this tool alone. Of course, you need to find relevant news or events that could potentially affect the price movements in crypto market.

maydna

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70% is enough to decide what to do with the current market, so you will know what happens to the market. That is why we need to use other things to analyze the market before we do something. You can use the news to know what is going on with the market, besides using the chart to analyze, so you can predict what will happen next. But sometimes, your predicting can be wrong if the market changes the direction, making you apply another strategy based on the current market situation.

But we cannot accurately predict the market because the crypto market is hard to analyze based on the chart, the news, or the order. And sometimes, the market will move or not move to one point, so you need to have another strategy, and you can apply the other strategy if the market starts to move.

Hippocrypto

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Quote from: Ucy on June 12, 2020, 05:54:40 AM

Ofcourse, it is hard to know everything. I prefer developing strategies that work for me and I stick with them... whether they're strategies for fundamental or technical analysis.
And the strategies don't work 100%(probably from 40—50% up)

Having many strategies will always work but you should choose exclusively the best one that you'll prefer to be effective. Without plans according to each goals, I don't think success will follow in the end. However, starting small capital even if 10-20% can be better and sufficient.

stomachgrowls

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Quote from: Lorokan on June 12, 2020, 03:16:34 AM

While trading, I have come to notice that most of the chart only play out about 70% of the time at most, so no matter how good you are you still can't know everything.

So literally, I want to know your takes on this, does it apply to both FA/TA chart analyst or just general views?

Do guide me with comments

I dont know on where you do get that 70% when it comes to charting success chance? Its true that theres no such thing to be in precise yet we know that that crypto market can fucked you up big time no matter
how good your technical/chart analysis.

This is why traders would really mixed up fundamentals/news with it but to expect that not all the time we do able to hear out news or events that to happen into this space thats why majority would really end up
on TA for such moment.

Dont expect for 100% because its impossible for it to happen and even we do talk in Forex/stocks , its impossible. How much more in crypto market?

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