Today's Pick of the Day was NCAAB Wichita State (-3.5) @ Indiana State which paid +1.787 units.
Email us at [email protected] to subscribe to tomorrow's Pick of the Day.
Thank you and good luck to all!
Topic: abitbetter247 - Wager like a business professional not a gambler - page 2. (Read 7061 times)
February 05, 2014, 10:59:34 PM
February 04, 2014, 09:31:08 PM
Today's Pick of the Day was NCAAB Kansas (-3.5) @ Baylor which paid +1.877 units.
Email us at [email protected] to subscribe to tomorrow's Pick of the Day.
Thank you and good luck to all!
Email us at [email protected] to subscribe to tomorrow's Pick of the Day.
Thank you and good luck to all!
February 03, 2014, 11:27:09 PM
Yesterday's Pick of the Day was Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks (+2) which paid +1.900 units.
Today's Pick of the Day was Toronto Raptors (-4) @ Utah Jazz which paid +1.840 units.
Email us at [email protected] to subscribe to tomorrow's Pick of the Day.
Thank you and good luck to all!
Today's Pick of the Day was Toronto Raptors (-4) @ Utah Jazz which paid +1.840 units.
Email us at [email protected] to subscribe to tomorrow's Pick of the Day.
Thank you and good luck to all!
February 01, 2014, 01:30:33 AM
Today's Pick of the Day was Murray State (-3) @ Austin Peay for a potential payout of 1.925. Murray State won the game 96-88 making us winner's on the final day of January after 3 consecutive losses.
For the month of January we limped to an 18 - 13 record, which still makes us profitable on the month based on the system that we use. Still it's a far cry from the 20 or more wins that we expected to get based on our performance over the first 2 weeks of January.
But, as my young daughter reminded me tonight, you can't win every night and we look forward to a great month of February!
Good luck everyone!
[email protected]
For the month of January we limped to an 18 - 13 record, which still makes us profitable on the month based on the system that we use. Still it's a far cry from the 20 or more wins that we expected to get based on our performance over the first 2 weeks of January.
But, as my young daughter reminded me tonight, you can't win every night and we look forward to a great month of February!
Good luck everyone!
[email protected]
January 30, 2014, 10:07:48 PM
SCAM
Ok I'm usually a very nice guy who gives the benefit of the doubt but this is unbelievable. Today they lost again, this time by 32 points. Yes they missed the spread by 32. That makes 3 losses in a row.
This is the unbelievable thing. They say they haven't lost 3 in a row in 2 years. Suddenly they've lost 3 in a row TWICE in the last two weeks. Something stinks here and I don't know why anyone would follow them especially at their ridiculously overpriced rate.
Ok I'm usually a very nice guy who gives the benefit of the doubt but this is unbelievable. Today they lost again, this time by 32 points. Yes they missed the spread by 32. That makes 3 losses in a row.
This is the unbelievable thing. They say they haven't lost 3 in a row in 2 years. Suddenly they've lost 3 in a row TWICE in the last two weeks. Something stinks here and I don't know why anyone would follow them especially at their ridiculously overpriced rate.
January 30, 2014, 03:38:32 PM
The 60% figure is useless unless you mean on the spread. I could easily bet on favorites, win 85% of the bets, and be deep in the red.
The only thing that matters is your capping ability. If you're getting -110 odds on the spread, you need to be able to predict the winner of the spread > 52.4% of the time. If you can do that, then great, you will make money. If you can't, you will lose money, regardless of any silly martingale scheme.
The martingale scheme really isn't worth mentioning for the same reason that no betting system works on roulette. What you should be doing is using the Kelly-criterion and betting more on games that you are more sure about, and less on games that are more of a guess. It is important that your subscribers know that an arbitrary martingale scheme does not help anything.
The only thing that matters is your capping ability. If you're getting -110 odds on the spread, you need to be able to predict the winner of the spread > 52.4% of the time. If you can do that, then great, you will make money. If you can't, you will lose money, regardless of any silly martingale scheme.
The martingale scheme really isn't worth mentioning for the same reason that no betting system works on roulette. What you should be doing is using the Kelly-criterion and betting more on games that you are more sure about, and less on games that are more of a guess. It is important that your subscribers know that an arbitrary martingale scheme does not help anything.
In their defense, they do bet on the spread so it could work for them. Unfortunately they've been missing lately.
I just looked through the first couple pages, and it seems that they often buy points on the spread. For example, they sometimes take the spread with something like 1.80 odds. If they did that every time they would need to have a win percentage of > 55.6% in order to profit. So as it stands, their percentage figure doesn't really mean anything. The only thing that would show something would be a complete table with units won/loss.
edit: (bad math)
January 30, 2014, 11:20:31 AM
The 60% figure is useless unless you mean on the spread. I could easily bet on favorites, win 85% of the bets, and be deep in the red.
The only thing that matters is your capping ability. If you're getting -110 odds on the spread, you need to be able to predict the winner of the spread > 52.4% of the time. If you can do that, then great, you will make money. If you can't, you will lose money, regardless of any silly martingale scheme.
The martingale scheme really isn't worth mentioning for the same reason that no betting system works on roulette. What you should be doing is using the Kelly-criterion and betting more on games that you are more sure about, and less on games that are more of a guess. It is important that your subscribers know that an arbitrary martingale scheme does not help anything.
The only thing that matters is your capping ability. If you're getting -110 odds on the spread, you need to be able to predict the winner of the spread > 52.4% of the time. If you can do that, then great, you will make money. If you can't, you will lose money, regardless of any silly martingale scheme.
The martingale scheme really isn't worth mentioning for the same reason that no betting system works on roulette. What you should be doing is using the Kelly-criterion and betting more on games that you are more sure about, and less on games that are more of a guess. It is important that your subscribers know that an arbitrary martingale scheme does not help anything.
In their defense, they do bet on the spread so it could work for them. Unfortunately they've been missing lately.
January 30, 2014, 01:22:38 AM
Another loss today. Is there anyone who can voucher for their picks in the two prior years where they say they hit 64 percent? The last 16 picks they are 7-9.
No. This is why they are a scam. They lie about their past results. Oh hey guess what? I went 64% myself last year! Spin some nice words here and there boom gotcha hooked 
January 29, 2014, 11:17:50 PM
Another loss today. Is there anyone who can voucher for their picks in the two prior years where they say they hit 64 percent? The last 16 picks they are 7-9.
January 29, 2014, 08:24:21 PM
The 60% figure is useless unless you mean on the spread. I could easily bet on favorites, win 85% of the bets, and be deep in the red.
The only thing that matters is your capping ability. If you're getting -110 odds on the spread, you need to be able to predict the winner of the spread > 52.4% of the time. If you can do that, then great, you will make money. If you can't, you will lose money, regardless of any silly martingale scheme.
The martingale scheme really isn't worth mentioning for the same reason that no betting system works on roulette. What you should be doing is using the Kelly-criterion and betting more on games that you are more sure about, and less on games that are more of a guess. It is important that your subscribers know that an arbitrary martingale scheme does not help anything.
The only thing that matters is your capping ability. If you're getting -110 odds on the spread, you need to be able to predict the winner of the spread > 52.4% of the time. If you can do that, then great, you will make money. If you can't, you will lose money, regardless of any silly martingale scheme.
The martingale scheme really isn't worth mentioning for the same reason that no betting system works on roulette. What you should be doing is using the Kelly-criterion and betting more on games that you are more sure about, and less on games that are more of a guess. It is important that your subscribers know that an arbitrary martingale scheme does not help anything.
January 29, 2014, 05:19:29 PM
This post will hopefully assist readers in understanding our philosophy.
Firstly, it's actually not just a philosophy; it's a blueprint, or a road map, or a business plan to generating a sustainable positive return on invested money. The key here is that we ourselves are investors and part of what we do is provide investment advice to our subscribers. As such, we operate on the assumption that each and every one of our subscribers, however few or many there may be on any given day, are like-minded individuals who view sports wagering as a legitimate investment vehicle capable of yielding above-average returns over longer periods of time. That being said, we're not delusional either. Obviously, we welcome anyone's decision to subscribe to the Pick of the Day irrespective of their individual motivations. It's just that as a subscriber, you have to ask yourself the hard questions. Why am I doing this? And we all know what our reasons are and, generally speaking, there is absolutely nothing wrong with any of your answers. But, as a subscriber, you have to be mindful of the fact that your motivation and/or your goals may differ from our own. In such instances, perhaps it is best to take a step back and decide that for whatever reasons our service is not suited for your personal objectives at this time.
Secondly, we gauge our success based upon our month over month net return on investment. On the assumption that the typical calendar month has at least 30 days, we view every month where we record at least 20 wins to be a major success. 18 wins per month is the equivalent to playing 0.600 baseball. I don't know how many teams will play 0.600 baseball over 162 games this year, but I do know that every team that does will make the playoffs. That's because 0.600 is a benchmark for long term success and durability. In other words, it's not a fluke. Simply put, if we deliver our subscribers 20 wins in a month, we are also delivering them a significant positive return on their invested money.
Thirdly, while this may sound trite, we only invest money that we can afford to lose. While we obviously don't want to lose, should the improbable happen and we lost 100% of our bankroll, we could just walk away and never look back. For that reason, we will never invest, and we would never advise any subscriber to invest, more than 3% of your bankroll on any single wager and never more than 5% of your bankroll on your total number of wagers for any single day. Why? Because no matter what, you need to live to fight another day. If you lose your bankroll, you're out of the game. That's our money management philosophy in a nutshell.
Fourthly, what about risk management? Despite what you might want to believe, all bets are not created equal. Even are own Pick of the Day will obviously vary in quality and likelihood of success depending on numerous factors, not the least of which is the variable number of games that are available to wager upon on any given day. So how do you best apportion risk? There are literally as many systems as there are investors and gamblers (we hate that word) in the world. The short answer is that if you have your own system and it has worked over an extended period of time, stick with it, but be open-minded about tweaking it if you think that you can improve upon your overall results. We employ a series system for our wagers, which wagers include the Pick of the Day as well as other daily wagers.
We hesitate to put this out there because everyone's financial situation and perspective on wagering is unique and as such our approach may not (won't) be suitable for everyone. But because you have to allocate risk one way or another to each of your wagers, we ourselves have utilized the following system which to date has performed very well in even the most challenging of months:
We utilize an ABCD series of wagers. All bets are A bets and represent exactly 1% of our bankroll until we lose. So we can have many A bets in a row: A1, A2, etc. As soon as our A bet is a loser, we immediately move on to our B bet which represents exactly 1.5% of our bankroll. There can only be 1 B bet because if we win we return to placing A bets but if we lose we move on to our C bet. Our C bet represents exactly 2% of our bankroll and can only ever be placed after a losing B bet. Again, there can only be 1 C bet per series of bets because we either win and return to placing A bets or we lose and move on to our final bet in any series of bets, the D bet. The D bet represents exactly 2.5% of our bankroll and this bet can also only ever be placed once. After placing a D bet, win or lose we always end the betting series and beginning an new series by placing our A bet. We have found this system to be CONSERVATIVE, sustainable and generally impervious to the various streaks, good and bad, that occur over an entire month of wagering. The system is not without its flaws but we utilize it as purely OBJECTIVE tool for allocating risk. Lastly, there are countless similar Martingale style systems for apportioning risk that are open-ended that can only lead you down the path to nowhere and we caution anyone from falling into such a trap. Bottom line is borrow someone else's system, create your own, but make sure it works, utilize it and never deviate from it no matter what.
And that is our philosophy for what little it might be worth.
Shameless plug: email us at [email protected] to subscribe to the Pick of the Day. Your payment of 0.005 BTC gets you our Pick of the Day and all of the assistance you might or might not want with respect to managing your personal sports wagering business.
Good luck to all!
Firstly, it's actually not just a philosophy; it's a blueprint, or a road map, or a business plan to generating a sustainable positive return on invested money. The key here is that we ourselves are investors and part of what we do is provide investment advice to our subscribers. As such, we operate on the assumption that each and every one of our subscribers, however few or many there may be on any given day, are like-minded individuals who view sports wagering as a legitimate investment vehicle capable of yielding above-average returns over longer periods of time. That being said, we're not delusional either. Obviously, we welcome anyone's decision to subscribe to the Pick of the Day irrespective of their individual motivations. It's just that as a subscriber, you have to ask yourself the hard questions. Why am I doing this? And we all know what our reasons are and, generally speaking, there is absolutely nothing wrong with any of your answers. But, as a subscriber, you have to be mindful of the fact that your motivation and/or your goals may differ from our own. In such instances, perhaps it is best to take a step back and decide that for whatever reasons our service is not suited for your personal objectives at this time.
Secondly, we gauge our success based upon our month over month net return on investment. On the assumption that the typical calendar month has at least 30 days, we view every month where we record at least 20 wins to be a major success. 18 wins per month is the equivalent to playing 0.600 baseball. I don't know how many teams will play 0.600 baseball over 162 games this year, but I do know that every team that does will make the playoffs. That's because 0.600 is a benchmark for long term success and durability. In other words, it's not a fluke. Simply put, if we deliver our subscribers 20 wins in a month, we are also delivering them a significant positive return on their invested money.
Thirdly, while this may sound trite, we only invest money that we can afford to lose. While we obviously don't want to lose, should the improbable happen and we lost 100% of our bankroll, we could just walk away and never look back. For that reason, we will never invest, and we would never advise any subscriber to invest, more than 3% of your bankroll on any single wager and never more than 5% of your bankroll on your total number of wagers for any single day. Why? Because no matter what, you need to live to fight another day. If you lose your bankroll, you're out of the game. That's our money management philosophy in a nutshell.
Fourthly, what about risk management? Despite what you might want to believe, all bets are not created equal. Even are own Pick of the Day will obviously vary in quality and likelihood of success depending on numerous factors, not the least of which is the variable number of games that are available to wager upon on any given day. So how do you best apportion risk? There are literally as many systems as there are investors and gamblers (we hate that word) in the world. The short answer is that if you have your own system and it has worked over an extended period of time, stick with it, but be open-minded about tweaking it if you think that you can improve upon your overall results. We employ a series system for our wagers, which wagers include the Pick of the Day as well as other daily wagers.
We hesitate to put this out there because everyone's financial situation and perspective on wagering is unique and as such our approach may not (won't) be suitable for everyone. But because you have to allocate risk one way or another to each of your wagers, we ourselves have utilized the following system which to date has performed very well in even the most challenging of months:
We utilize an ABCD series of wagers. All bets are A bets and represent exactly 1% of our bankroll until we lose. So we can have many A bets in a row: A1, A2, etc. As soon as our A bet is a loser, we immediately move on to our B bet which represents exactly 1.5% of our bankroll. There can only be 1 B bet because if we win we return to placing A bets but if we lose we move on to our C bet. Our C bet represents exactly 2% of our bankroll and can only ever be placed after a losing B bet. Again, there can only be 1 C bet per series of bets because we either win and return to placing A bets or we lose and move on to our final bet in any series of bets, the D bet. The D bet represents exactly 2.5% of our bankroll and this bet can also only ever be placed once. After placing a D bet, win or lose we always end the betting series and beginning an new series by placing our A bet. We have found this system to be CONSERVATIVE, sustainable and generally impervious to the various streaks, good and bad, that occur over an entire month of wagering. The system is not without its flaws but we utilize it as purely OBJECTIVE tool for allocating risk. Lastly, there are countless similar Martingale style systems for apportioning risk that are open-ended that can only lead you down the path to nowhere and we caution anyone from falling into such a trap. Bottom line is borrow someone else's system, create your own, but make sure it works, utilize it and never deviate from it no matter what.
And that is our philosophy for what little it might be worth.
Shameless plug: email us at [email protected] to subscribe to the Pick of the Day. Your payment of 0.005 BTC gets you our Pick of the Day and all of the assistance you might or might not want with respect to managing your personal sports wagering business.
Good luck to all!
January 29, 2014, 10:53:53 AM
Just a very quick reply to address last night's post.
January has been awful. That being said, we are still 17-11 over 28 days. That's a 60% win rate, +4.03 units returned, and a 14% Return on Investment. And these are raw results only, assuming that you bet 1 unit every single night...which we do not advise.
Good luck finding a safe investment on Wall Street that is up 14% in January so far. My background is in financial management for over 22 years.
More to follow on what a proper money management strategy has yielded so far this month.
Good luck everyone!
January has been awful. That being said, we are still 17-11 over 28 days. That's a 60% win rate, +4.03 units returned, and a 14% Return on Investment. And these are raw results only, assuming that you bet 1 unit every single night...which we do not advise.
Good luck finding a safe investment on Wall Street that is up 14% in January so far. My background is in financial management for over 22 years.
More to follow on what a proper money management strategy has yielded so far this month.
Good luck everyone!
I think I just got in at the wrong time, relatively speaking. I'm sticking with you and I understand your points, and they make sense, which is why I'm sticking with you.
January 29, 2014, 10:44:02 AM
Just a very quick reply to address last night's post.
January has been awful. That being said, we are still 17-11 over 28 days. That's a 60% win rate, +4.03 units returned, and a 14% Return on Investment. And these are raw results only, assuming that you bet 1 unit every single night...which we do not advise.
Good luck finding a safe investment on Wall Street that is up 14% in January so far. My background is in financial management for over 22 years.
More to follow on what a proper money management strategy has yielded so far this month.
Good luck everyone!
January has been awful. That being said, we are still 17-11 over 28 days. That's a 60% win rate, +4.03 units returned, and a 14% Return on Investment. And these are raw results only, assuming that you bet 1 unit every single night...which we do not advise.
Good luck finding a safe investment on Wall Street that is up 14% in January so far. My background is in financial management for over 22 years.
More to follow on what a proper money management strategy has yielded so far this month.
Good luck everyone!
January 29, 2014, 10:25:36 AM
As much as we would all like to have the power, no handicapper controls the outcome of the game. I got hammered last night on five plays pulled from multiple sources. Sure the pick from abitbetter247 lost, but so did a butt-load of others. I did, however, wake up this morning to an email in my inbox from abitbetter notifying that I would get their pick for today free because of the loss last night. Only thing you can do? Tee it up again tonight and hope the great invisible god of sports shines the light on you.
Keep up the good work gentlemen.
Keep up the good work gentlemen.
Well I agree, I just was hoping for something better than a game under .500 after 15 picks. I'm not giving up yet, just bummed out.
January 29, 2014, 10:18:58 AM
As much as we would all like to have the power, no handicapper controls the outcome of the game. I got hammered last night on five plays pulled from multiple sources. Sure the pick from abitbetter247 lost, but so did a butt-load of others. I did, however, wake up this morning to an email in my inbox from abitbetter notifying that I would get their pick for today free because of the loss last night. Only thing you can do? Tee it up again tonight and hope the great invisible god of sports shines the light on you.
Keep up the good work gentlemen.
Keep up the good work gentlemen.
January 28, 2014, 11:44:45 PM
Tonight's Pick of the Day was NBA Los Angeles Clippers (-9.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks for a potential payout 1.917. The Clippers won the game 114 - 86 thereby easily covering the spread.
We are now 5 for 7 over the past week as we look to establish a sustainable bull run through the end of the month.
End of the month runs are not unusual and, even though there is absolutely no logical explanation for why they happen, it's nice to see that this streak is slowly working its way to the upside.
Good luck tomorrow everyone!
We are now 5 for 7 over the past week as we look to establish a sustainable bull run through the end of the month.
End of the month runs are not unusual and, even though there is absolutely no logical explanation for why they happen, it's nice to see that this streak is slowly working its way to the upside.
Good luck tomorrow everyone!
Well,let's be honest, 5 for 7 over the past week but it was 3 losses in a row before that. Since following you I've had:
Loss
Loss
Win
Win
Loss
Loss
Loss
Win
Win
Win
Loss
Win
Loss
Win
Loss
15 days And under .500 (plus losing vig)
I'm beginning to lose faith in all honesty after tonight's spanking. Good luck going forward.
January 28, 2014, 12:49:59 AM
Tonight's Pick of the Day was NBA Los Angeles Clippers (-9.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks for a potential payout 1.917. The Clippers won the game 114 - 86 thereby easily covering the spread.
We are now 5 for 7 over the past week as we look to establish a sustainable bull run through the end of the month.
End of the month runs are not unusual and, even though there is absolutely no logical explanation for why they happen, it's nice to see that this streak is slowly working its way to the upside.
Good luck tomorrow everyone!
We are now 5 for 7 over the past week as we look to establish a sustainable bull run through the end of the month.
End of the month runs are not unusual and, even though there is absolutely no logical explanation for why they happen, it's nice to see that this streak is slowly working its way to the upside.
Good luck tomorrow everyone!
January 27, 2014, 01:36:09 PM
That's another great question.
Betting on MLB is absolutely your BEST odds at generating positive returns over the long haul for so many reasons:
1. As it gets closer to summer, it's low season for sports books so the vig gets lower. It's already lower for MLB than it is for any other major North American sport...but it generally gets even lower.
2. There are no point spreads in baseball...it's a zero sum game...you either win or you lose.
3. Baseball is not a timed sport, so you don't get meaningless baskets, empty net goals or prevent defenses giving up meaningless points at the end of a game that mess with bets that otherwise would have covered.
4. MLB is much more predictable, particularly once you are 40 games into the season. Make a note of your potential playoff teams after 40 games and you will see that little has changed after 162 games.
There are also countless statistical and other unquantifiable edges that a good handicapper will consider (that we will not reveal here for obvious reasons) that will give a really good handicapper an edge over a full MLB season.
So, in answer to your question...at the moment the NCAAB, NBA and NHL dominate the schedule, but come April the MLB will get a ton of attention... from us anyway.
Thanks for your inquiry and good luck!
Betting on MLB is absolutely your BEST odds at generating positive returns over the long haul for so many reasons:
1. As it gets closer to summer, it's low season for sports books so the vig gets lower. It's already lower for MLB than it is for any other major North American sport...but it generally gets even lower.
2. There are no point spreads in baseball...it's a zero sum game...you either win or you lose.
3. Baseball is not a timed sport, so you don't get meaningless baskets, empty net goals or prevent defenses giving up meaningless points at the end of a game that mess with bets that otherwise would have covered.
4. MLB is much more predictable, particularly once you are 40 games into the season. Make a note of your potential playoff teams after 40 games and you will see that little has changed after 162 games.
There are also countless statistical and other unquantifiable edges that a good handicapper will consider (that we will not reveal here for obvious reasons) that will give a really good handicapper an edge over a full MLB season.
So, in answer to your question...at the moment the NCAAB, NBA and NHL dominate the schedule, but come April the MLB will get a ton of attention... from us anyway.
Thanks for your inquiry and good luck!
January 27, 2014, 11:49:12 AM
I've noticed your picks are all basketball as of late. What are your picks like in the summer? MLB, something else? Just wondering, thanks.
January 27, 2014, 10:36:54 AM
January has been challenging to say the least. A tough loss yesterday left us at only 1-1 on the weekend, but we are trending higher having won 4 out of our last 6 as we look to close out the month with a positive ROI.
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