1,397,907 shares left. 1397/2100
Just picked up a few more
Topic: ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread - page 85. (Read 168100 times)
Just picked up a few more
1,397,907 shares left. 1397/2100
So I am wondering the big price difference between bitfunder and btct. What's the point? Thanks.
The difference is that AMC on bitfunder opened at .0005 and a few million shares were sold at .0005 and .0008. So .0025 is relatively high and has caused some consolidation. If you look at the graph you can see that we are trending upwards, but we had some sell off from profit takers (which is natural and expected). BTC-TC on the other had its IPO open at .0025, so everyone is starting there and there is no downward pressure since everyone bought at the same price.
That is the reason why there is a big block on BTCTC and no so much on bitfunder. Ken worked it out pretty nicely. By the time we are through that block on BTC-TC we will be past .0025 on bitfunder.
Hope that answered your question.
Network TH/s (inc AMC) seems to be underestimated.
Yes, underestimated for July (since it doesn't matter much right now), but I'd say overestimated from August forward, starting at ~470TH
BTC-TC:
We are about to drop below 1.4 million shares.
BitFunder
213,155 shares before we hit .0025. Down from 224,158 this morning.
We are about to drop below 1.4 million shares.
BitFunder
213,155 shares before we hit .0025. Down from 224,158 this morning.
So I am wondering the big price difference between bitfunder and btct. What's the point? Thanks.
I did a new update on my projections, for mining only (this does not include profits from hardware sales!).
Considerations:
Conclusions:
Considerations:
- Klondikes mining at August (worst case)
- Avalon chips overclocked to 380MHz, since they will be running on Springfield Underground data center
- November (worst case) hashrate increase from the low-volume process, using BTC3.6 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclocked
- December (worst case) forward hashrate increase from the high-volume process, using BTC1.2 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclocked
- 50% of mining dividends used to buy new Fast-Hash-One 16GH/s chips
Conclusions:
- Investors are fully reimbursed of their paid BTC.0025/share around February next year, at worst
- The MH/s/share and MH/s/BTC are indeed crazy profitable
- As soon as the unit price of chips gets down (it will drop 1/3 to 1/4 even before going to easicopy), the hashrate can rise even much further
- Having direct access to buy hardware at manufacturing cost is what really makes this possible
- The effect of hardware sales will be just icing on the cake
Network TH/s (inc AMC) seems to be underestimated.
BTC-TC:
We are about to drop below 1.4 million shares.
BitFunder
213,155 shares before we hit .0025. Down from 224,158 this morning.
We are about to drop below 1.4 million shares.
BitFunder
213,155 shares before we hit .0025. Down from 224,158 this morning.
Great news! ActM getting all the NRE money in like a week would put a severe dent to some of the competition.
Lol, I'm loving the comments directed at Ken in that thread. Seems ActM has seriously ruffled some feathers.
People, welcome to the new kid on the block: ActiveMining. It's about time ASICMINER had a serious contender.
The fanboi-ism is appalling. Im sure, by the way the majority of community members in this forum conduct themselves, I am sure the average Joe is itching to get involved in Bitcoin. Some of these people running the businesses and endeavors within act so childish and unprofessional. Hence why I would and will never invest with TAT again, perfect example.
Yeah, it has been a real eye-opener for me. I don't understand why people who are openly associated with new Bitcoin companies would act in such a juvenile manner. It seems they can't think ahead very far either, because their future competitors will be reading their posts and construct their game plan accordingly ie mostly consider them light weights, ripe for the taking.
Lol, I'm loving the comments directed at Ken in that thread. Seems ActM has seriously ruffled some feathers.
People, welcome to the new kid on the block: ActiveMining. It's about time ASICMINER had a serious contender.
The fanboi-ism is appalling. Im sure, by the way the majority of community members in this forum conduct themselves, I am sure the average Joe is itching to get involved in Bitcoin. Some of these people running the businesses and endeavors within act so childish and unprofessional. Hence why I would and will never invest with TAT again, perfect example.
It's really pathetic seeing people frown at overpriced slots that they themselves were bidding at.
Lol, I'm loving the comments directed at Ken in that thread. Seems ActM has seriously ruffled some feathers.
People, welcome to the new kid on the block: ActiveMining. It's about time ASICMINER had a serious contender.
Great work Vbs. Ken should hire you to be our Investor Relations manager! 
Spreadsheet is great. I like the way you have assumed worse case scenarios. Even with that, the future for ActM looks very bight.
now I'm craving Omelette du Fromage!
Love the calculations, VBS. I'm looking forward to seeing it play out.
Edit: Totally outdated now!
I did a new update on my projections, for mining only (this does not include profits from hardware sales!).
Considerations:
(http://i40.tinypic.com/2ymwvub.png)
Conclusions:
Klondikes mining at August (worst case)Avalon chips overclocked to 380MHz, since they will be running on Springfield Underground data centerNovember (worst case) hashrate increase from the low-volume process, using BTC3.6 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclockedDecember (worst case) forward hashrate increase from the high-volume process, using BTC1.2 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclocked50% of mining dividends used to buy new Fast-Hash-One 16GH/s chips
(
Investors are fully reimbursed of their paid BTC.0025/share around February next year, at worstThe MH/s/share and MH/s/BTC are indeed crazy profitableAs soon as the unit price of chips gets down (it will drop 1/3 to 1/4 even before going to easicopy), the hashrate can rise even much furtherHaving direct access to buy hardware at manufacturing cost is what really makes this possibleThe effect of hardware sales will be just icing on the cake
Low-volume chips will cost something around ~BTC3 per chip, since they will immediately be available just after 3 months of paying for the NRE, so let's say October.
Let's also say the 6.377 TH are online somewhere in August, with the network hashrate being around 500TH at that time, so ~BTC1500-1600 per month considering expenses. If BTC1000 go for growth and the rest for dividends, 1000/3 = 333.33 chips * 16GH/s is a 5333.28 GH/s increase in just one month.
The high-volume process should deliver chips at no more than ~BTC1 per chip, so the growth potential should be at minimum 3x for the same price when those come in 4-4.5 months in November/December. Once these start arriving, it's gonna be om nom nom nom nom time on the network, that's for sure. The higher the volume of chips bought, the cheap they become also (y-axis is chip unit price):
Let's also say the 6.377 TH are online somewhere in August, with the network hashrate being around 500TH at that time, so ~BTC1500-1600 per month considering expenses. If BTC1000 go for growth and the rest for dividends, 1000/3 = 333.33 chips * 16GH/s is a 5333.28 GH/s increase in just one month.
The high-volume process should deliver chips at no more than ~BTC1 per chip, so the growth potential should be at minimum 3x for the same price when those come in 4-4.5 months in November/December. Once these start arriving, it's gonna be om nom nom nom nom time on the network, that's for sure. The higher the volume of chips bought, the cheap they become also (y-axis is chip unit price):
Let's talk share value estimates. Give your projected value, time frame it is achieved within, and some reasoning behind your speculation (if you have any...)
GO!
GO!
I see it in this light:
After the wall goes down, a small bump in price over the course of that week then it flattens out. Avalon prototype information and pics released, a small price surge with skepticism, just on the news. NRE is announced as finished and eASIC begins production, another price surge. Avalon's brought online, now everyone starts to take notice that the model has been coming to fruition, even the whiners who have been bashing see they made a mistake, another price surge but more aggressively.
Exact numbers? Who knows, but look to these other securities who receive their miners, BFL singles, Avalon's, etc. and how their share price inflates.
What about percentages? What was ASICMiner's IPO? At what hashrate increase/news did it move aggressively? It seems like we can get some rough numbers based on AM performance and pricing since ActiveMiner is following the same general model. Does anyone have those figures or know where I can dig them up?
This might help: http://web.archive.org/web/20130305000147/https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.0
As to the rise in their share price, I am not sure how it followed news, increase in hashing power, miner production and sales. I do know that on May 18th it was at 1.9, which is where I bought in.
FYI, original post has some updated information in it and links. A lot of bashing going on in the ASICMINER spec thread, any news is good news I guess. However, maybe some of those folks who are clueless over there, ie. thinking the wall is someone getting out or the chenbro images are "stolen," should look there.
Chenbro is the chassis people, it will be modified, there is no dvd rom, the wall is the IPO for funding the NRE, the merge and contract rewrite was a restructuring done in collaboration with the community and more heavily invested shareholders... get out from under your rock
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