ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread - page 85.

Vbs

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Edit: Totally outdated now, don't quote this anymore!

~~New update, this time I considered some hardware selling estimates, as well as the impact of Ken's 15M shares on the whole operation.~~

~~(any errors found, just shout! )~~

~~Considerations:~~

~~Mining~~
~~Klondikes mining at August (worst case)~~
~~Avalon chips overclocked to 380MHz, since they will be running on Springfield Underground data center~~
November/December (worst case) hashrate increase from the high-volume process (low-volume is not worth it for just a ~month difference), using BTC1.2 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclocked
~~50% of mining dividends used to buy new Fast-Hash-One 16GH/s chips~~
~~Total network hashrate includes ActM's mining plus hardware sold to other parties (200% markup)~~
~~Sales~~
Sales volume is really hard to predict. I just assumed it to be 2x the profits of mining, which I still think is really on the low side, as ActM is gonna also sell chips in bulk. For example, Avalon in getting ready to ship its ~BTC164,000 in bulk chips. There is definitely money to be made in bulk chip sales!

(~~http://i40.tinypic.com/wgrlu8.png~~)

~~Conclusions:~~

~~Investors are fully reimbursed of their paid BTC.0025/share around December/January~~
~~The MH/s/share and MH/s/BTC are indeed crazy profitable~~
~~As soon as the unit price of chips gets down (it will drop 1/3 to 1/4 even before going to easicopy), the hashrate can rise even much further~~
~~Having direct access to buy hardware at manufacturing cost is what really makes this possible~~
The effect of hardware sales is just mind boggling

Streets 2.0

full member

Activity: 490

Merit: 101

FRX: Ferocious Alpha

Quote from: lewicki on July 17, 2013, 09:21:10 PM

1,397,907 shares left. 1397/2100

Just picked up a few more

lewicki

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

1,397,907 shares left. 1397/2100

lewicki

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

Quote from: Jimmy2011 on July 17, 2013, 08:56:35 PM

So I am wondering the big price difference between bitfunder and btct. What's the point? Thanks.

The difference is that AMC on bitfunder opened at .0005 and a few million shares were sold at .0005 and .0008. So .0025 is relatively high and has caused some consolidation. If you look at the graph you can see that we are trending upwards, but we had some sell off from profit takers (which is natural and expected). BTC-TC on the other had its IPO open at .0025, so everyone is starting there and there is no downward pressure since everyone bought at the same price.

That is the reason why there is a big block on BTCTC and no so much on bitfunder. Ken worked it out pretty nicely. By the time we are through that block on BTC-TC we will be past .0025 on bitfunder.

Hope that answered your question.

Vbs

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Quote from: Jimmy2011 on July 17, 2013, 08:39:08 PM

Network TH/s (inc AMC) seems to be underestimated.

Yes, underestimated for July (since it doesn't matter much right now), but I'd say overestimated from August forward, starting at ~470TH

Jimmy2011

hero member

Activity: 589

Merit: 500

Quote from: lewicki on July 17, 2013, 02:28:39 PM

BTC-TC:
We are about to drop below 1.4 million shares.

BitFunder
213,155 shares before we hit .0025. Down from 224,158 this morning.

So I am wondering the big price difference between bitfunder and btct. What's the point? Thanks.

Jimmy2011

hero member

Activity: 589

Merit: 500

Quote from: Vbs on July 17, 2013, 11:46:13 AM

I did a new update on my projections, for mining only (this does not include profits from hardware sales!).

Considerations:

Klondikes mining at August (worst case)
Avalon chips overclocked to 380MHz, since they will be running on Springfield Underground data center
November (worst case) hashrate increase from the low-volume process, using BTC3.6 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclocked
December (worst case) forward hashrate increase from the high-volume process, using BTC1.2 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclocked
50% of mining dividends used to buy new Fast-Hash-One 16GH/s chips

Conclusions:

Investors are fully reimbursed of their paid BTC.0025/share around February next year, at worst
The MH/s/share and MH/s/BTC are indeed crazy profitable
As soon as the unit price of chips gets down (it will drop 1/3 to 1/4 even before going to easicopy), the hashrate can rise even much further
Having direct access to buy hardware at manufacturing cost is what really makes this possible
The effect of hardware sales will be just icing on the cake

Network TH/s (inc AMC) seems to be underestimated.

lewicki

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

BTC-TC:
We are about to drop below 1.4 million shares.

BitFunder
213,155 shares before we hit .0025. Down from 224,158 this morning.

Vbs

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Quote from: lewicki on July 17, 2013, 01:36:27 PM

All ads on BitcoinTalk bought by ActiveMining:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=253076.60

Great news! ActM getting all the NRE money in like a week would put a severe dent to some of the competition.

lolstate

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Quote from: Streets 2.0 on July 17, 2013, 02:08:35 PM

Quote from: lolstate on July 17, 2013, 02:04:11 PM

Quote from: lewicki on July 17, 2013, 01:36:27 PM

All ads on BitcoinTalk bought by ActiveMining:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=253076.60

Lol, I'm loving the comments directed at Ken in that thread. Seems ActM has seriously ruffled some feathers.

People, welcome to the new kid on the block: ActiveMining. It's about time ASICMINER had a serious contender.

The fanboi-ism is appalling. Im sure, by the way the majority of community members in this forum conduct themselves, I am sure the average Joe is itching to get involved in Bitcoin. Some of these people running the businesses and endeavors within act so childish and unprofessional. Hence why I would and will never invest with TAT again, perfect example.

Yeah, it has been a real eye-opener for me. I don't understand why people who are openly associated with new Bitcoin companies would act in such a juvenile manner. It seems they can't think ahead very far either, because their future competitors will be reading their posts and construct their game plan accordingly ie mostly consider them light weights, ripe for the taking. Cheesy

Streets 2.0

full member

Activity: 490

Merit: 101

FRX: Ferocious Alpha

Quote from: lolstate on July 17, 2013, 02:04:11 PM

Quote from: lewicki on July 17, 2013, 01:36:27 PM

All ads on BitcoinTalk bought by ActiveMining:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=253076.60

Lol, I'm loving the comments directed at Ken in that thread. Seems ActM has seriously ruffled some feathers.

People, welcome to the new kid on the block: ActiveMining. It's about time ASICMINER had a serious contender.

The fanboi-ism is appalling. Im sure, by the way the majority of community members in this forum conduct themselves, I am sure the average Joe is itching to get involved in Bitcoin. Some of these people running the businesses and endeavors within act so childish and unprofessional. Hence why I would and will never invest with TAT again, perfect example.

lewicki

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

It's really pathetic seeing people frown at overpriced slots that they themselves were bidding at.

lolstate

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Quote from: lewicki on July 17, 2013, 01:36:27 PM

All ads on BitcoinTalk bought by ActiveMining:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=253076.60

Lol, I'm loving the comments directed at Ken in that thread. Seems ActM has seriously ruffled some feathers.

People, welcome to the new kid on the block: ActiveMining. It's about time ASICMINER had a serious contender.

lewicki

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

All ads on BitcoinTalk bought by ActiveMining:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=253076.60

iCEBREAKER

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1072

Crypto is the separation of Power and State.

Great work Vbs. Ken should hire you to be our Investor Relations manager! Cool

lolstate

full member

Activity: 196

Merit: 100

Spreadsheet is great. I like the way you have assumed worse case scenarios. Even with that, the future for ActM looks very bight. Cool

knybe

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

decentralize EVERYTHING...

now I'm craving Omelette du Fromage!

navitatl

member

Activity: 119

Merit: 10

Love the calculations, VBS. I'm looking forward to seeing it play out.

Vbs

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Edit: Totally outdated now!

~~I did a new update on my projections, for mining only (this does not include profits from hardware sales!).~~

~~Considerations:~~

~~Klondikes mining at August (worst case)~~
~~Avalon chips overclocked to 380MHz, since they will be running on Springfield Underground data center~~
~~November (worst case) hashrate increase from the low-volume process, using BTC3.6 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclocked~~
~~December (worst case) forward hashrate increase from the high-volume process, using BTC1.2 per chip+assembly cost, chips at 16GH/s, not overclocked~~
~~50% of mining dividends used to buy new Fast-Hash-One 16GH/s chips~~

(~~http://i40.tinypic.com/2ymwvub.png~~)

~~Conclusions:~~

~~Investors are fully reimbursed of their paid BTC.0025/share around February next year, at worst~~
~~The MH/s/share and MH/s/BTC are indeed crazy profitable~~
~~As soon as the unit price of chips gets down (it will drop 1/3 to 1/4 even before going to easicopy), the hashrate can rise even much further~~
~~Having direct access to buy hardware at manufacturing cost is what really makes this possible~~
~~The effect of hardware sales will be just icing on the cake~~

Vbs

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

Low-volume chips will cost something around ~BTC3 per chip, since they will immediately be available just after 3 months of paying for the NRE, so let's say October.

Let's also say the 6.377 TH are online somewhere in August, with the network hashrate being around 500TH at that time, so ~BTC1500-1600 per month considering expenses. If BTC1000 go for growth and the rest for dividends, 1000/3 = 333.33 chips * 16GH/s is a 5333.28 GH/s increase in just one month.

The high-volume process should deliver chips at no more than ~BTC1 per chip, so the growth potential should be at minimum 3x for the same price when those come in 4-4.5 months in November/December. Once these start arriving, it's gonna be om nom nom nom nom time on the network, that's for sure. The higher the volume of chips bought, the cheap they become also (y-axis is chip unit price):

Topic: ActiveMining Overview and Speculation Thread - page 85. (Read 168030 times)