Topic: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread - page 187. (Read 479317 times)

Ladies and gentlemen, the $200 million Avalon deal was complete baloney. Check for yourself: https://twitter.com/ScottWapnerCNBC/statuses/364370798892421120

Is this the first public mention of the 28 nm by eASIC?

Listen to todays EdAndEthan Bitcoin daily updates on YouTube for their opinion about the whole 200m$ investment.

Btw, Ed and Ethan, are you here reading this topic?

Seems we'll be getting an eASIC Nextreme-3 too!

Yep, the competition will only increase and the >28nm feasibility argument of 110/130nm players is only going to hit the ground from now forward. Don't expect 20nm bitcoin mining hardware anytime soon, there are currently several technological hurdles to be resolved on that die shrink (better finFETs, etc) before it can be used to build power-hungry circuits made to operate 24/7.

I haven't updated my spreadsheet lately, but I'm expecting that with $200M appearing for chip development they are expecting at least 2-3x of that in chip sales, so I think ActiveMining will definitely be in a very good position on that too.

I feel that this discussion regarding potential competitors to ACTM is healthy in one aspect.
My gut feeling so far has been that those who are in favor of ACTM seem to assume that the competitors are going to sit on their hands, doing nothing while the 28 nm fast hashers get manufactured and shipped.
Of course that is not the truth, who knows what ASICMINER have up their sleeve for instance? And KnC? And other yet unknown companies.

At least now even the most blinded cheerleader of ACTM should be aware that we are not alone in the bitcoin mining universe.
Vbs: In your future projections sheet you posted a while ago, how big market % of hashing and sales did you guess ACTM would have? Has it been updated lately?

Disclamer: I am still long on this stock, and you guessed it, english is not my native language.

There is plenty of room in the market for multiple 28nm companies. One will probably end up with an edge over the others, but that does not mean the others will suddenly go bankrupt. ActiveMining is also going to be mining with its hardware at cost. I "droned on" about 20nm because you are claiming that this Avalon deal will be the death of every other mining company when it very unlikely and over a year away.

Arcticwolf, Cointerra's founder is also the founder of Open-Silicon.  Maybe you should look that up before calling them 'just some PHDs with nothing to show.'  

Somestranger, you managed to miss my point about 28nm competition entirely while droning on with yet another repost of nvidia's 20nm PowerPoint slides.  Way to fail there buddy.  

Exocyst, you don't know Cointerra's specs or schedule so stop assuming facts not in evidence.

I suggest Ken grab some patents and otherwise prepare for worst case scenarios.

Otherwise it's going to be Rachel Corrie vs a 65-tonne Merkava all over again.

Self-righteousness won't do jack squat against superior hardware.

First - that article was published in the Monday edition of the WSJ. It could be wrong, but boy, somebody is getting fired.

If you look at the first graph you linked, 20nm will reach price breakeven with 28nm on a per-transistor basis by 2014 Q3. It might be a strategic move - pay a premium right now for enough hardware to be competitive and get your design issues sorted out (while still being way cheaper than the other guys' gen 1 chips, ASICMiner in particular) - and then once 20nm is really cost-competitive, you can flatten the other guys completely by ramping up production.

That way you won't have to pay the NRE for 20nm later on.

The fact is, the tanks aren't arriving in 2014. Your doom & gloom scenario has a lot of time to develop. So pull up your rock, and climb back into that hole your living in.

That's right... keep spreading FUD so you can buy more cheap shares to flip once the price recovers. Even AMD and NVIDIA are not producing 20nm chips yet and they are huge semiconductor companies with billions of dollars that usually keep TSMC and other companies busy.

NVIDIA gave a presentation in late 2011 explaining the problems of moving to 20nm including high costs for little performance gain. http://www.extremetech.com/computing/123529-nvidia-deeply-unhappy-with-tsmc-claims-22nm-essentially-worthless


20nm is going to cost significantly more than 28nm for at least a couple years based on NVIDIA's projections here, and the production lines will be busy fulfilling orders for these semiconductor giants, not a tiny company like Avalon regardless of whether or not they receive this alleged $200 M investment. Avalon's 20nm chips would be at least one year away if not more; they would be absurdly expensive and they would not be able to compete on price with the 3 contenders for the 28nm market who will have much lower NRE and R&D costs as well as getting to market faster.


From the article: "What this slide states — we can’t even call it a suggestion — is that smaller processes no longer improve yields by leading to a greater number of chips per wafer. Instead, the complexities and difficulties of manufacturing at the new process create a cost structure that provides precious little incentive to manufacture at the new process. "

Who's to say any of these other companies wont get money thrown their way sometime in the future?  Avalon is special?

There is plenty of room in the market for more than one company selling 28nm asics, and on top of that ActiveMining have their own mining infrastructure that they can add to AT COST. I feel that ActiveMining is in a very good position to make a decent profit.
Im not going to freak out and sell my shares just because there is another company in the mix that has shown nothing other than a few PHD's, and certainly not at the say-so of a FUDster such as yourself.

Lots of derisive, dismissive discussion about Lewis' disruptive $200 million Avalon investment ^here^ and in other posts.

It sure is easy to pat ourselves on the back and scoff at their ambitious, bleeding-edge 20nm roadmap.

Much less mentioned among the JV cheerleader crew is Cointerra's impending angel-funded full-custom 28nm chip.

Do you hear that creaking noise?  That's the sound of our popsicle stand's plastic and particle board supports being crushed by Cointerra's tank treads.

Whistling past the graveyard isn't going to help us avoid being obsolete before Christmas.

I predict a wave of bankruptcies, consolidation/aquisitions, and mergers in the ASIC space as human/financial capital requirements to stay competitive begin overwhelming the garage inventor outfits.

Sometimes you got to join the fall to make the climb. Risky though... Cheers to liquidity (if you got it). It looked like any other night till everybody simultaneously cr*pped their pants over news that couldn't possibly affect outlook for at least 12 months. Anyways, held some, sold some, and bought more (what a ride).

Hey guys, next time you all freak out at some news and all panic sell, can you do it at a time when I have a little liquidity? I havent managed to buy a single share the last two times. Much appreciated   

Yes.

Does it contain the same information as this Gridchip thread here?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=252233.0;all

Hm doesn't load for me, do you read chinese? can you give a better translation of what he was trying to say?

gridchip's thread is here: http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=4621&extra=page%3D2&_dsign=2de4381b