Topic: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated] - page 135. (Read 771280 times)

Two things - first, the commercial cost of getting 11.7 exahash/second is $34 billion at $3/GH - or $10 billion at $1/GH - that is a fuck tonne of money.

Secondly... what Bargraphics said... let's also guess VMC gets 1% of the hardware sales market... thats 0.4 btc/share in hardware sales alone (to hit your massive number of 11.7 EH/s)

In fact, looking at your numbers, I don't even care if it takes 12 months to get a product online, because either way I'll be able to buy my target... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wK5ofoKbv1o

Just balancing a bit of bear with a bit of bull ;-)

That might actually be opposite the truth. Going for too large a die concentrates your power supply and heat removal problems. Thus we could see boards built like Avalon modules with multiple ASICs on that require only air cooling. Given that Ken WAS going to build avalon clones before the avalon chips fell through, he has experience with this type of design. The watts per meter square may be low enough such that cheap, simple, reliable and well characterized thermal solutions are possible rather than expensive, exotic, failure prone bleeding edge ones. Expecting to remove 400W from a contiguous square inch of silicon is bordering on the insane, expecting to pull 100W out of four half inch squares is much more reasonable.

I assume this is why they also want to sell units.

If the network hash rate remained constant, a round would last 14 days.

1% of the network = 504 BTC per round
504 / 10,000,000 = 0.00005040 BTC per round per share

If the 1% network share was maintained it would take 50 rounds to pay 0.0025 BTC to 10 million shares.
If the network hash rate was 100 Ph/s, it would take 40 x 24.576 Th/s systems to control 1% of the network, requiring 61,440 x 16 Gh/s chips.

Now, if the network increased by just 10% per round, we get the following:

01) 100 Ph/s
02) 110 Ph/s
03) 121 Ph/s
04) 133.1 Ph/s
05) 146.41 Ph/s
06) 161.051 Ph/s
07) 177.1561 Ph/s
08) 194.87171 Ph/s
09) 214.358881 Ph/s
10) 235.7947691 Ph/s
...
49) 9701.72337848722 Ph/s
50) 10,671.8957163359 Ph/s
51) 11739.0852879695 Ph/s

After 10 rounds, ActM would need 96 x 24.576 Th/s systems to maintain that 1% network share. That's 147,456 x 16 Gh/s chips. After 50 rounds, ActM would need 4,343 x 24.576 Th/s systems to maintain that 1% network share. That's 6,670,848 x 16 Gh/s chips. In order to maintain that 1% share for round 51 ActM would need to bring online another 435 x 24.576 Th/s systems over that round.

If the difficulty increases by 10% per round but ActM only increases by 9% per round, then after 50 rounds 0.00200011 BTC will have been paid out to each share holder (ignoring anything paid already). If ActM only increases by 5% per round, 0.00099533 BTC would have been paid out after 50 rounds.

ActM will not be able to maintain network share. Their chip is simply too slow compared to the competition which will cause them to run in to problems during deployment, problems such as physical space, power constraints, cooling issues, etc. Those numbers above are also pretty conservative. The difficulty has been increasing by far more than 10% per round and the network hash rate is likely to be greater than 100 Ph/s by the time ActM start normal volume production. There will be a lot of different ASICs available by the time ActM are producing miners and they're all faster than 16 Gh/s.

Cause this is a scam. There either never was any real intention of producing miners OR miners were produced but only for the benefit of a select few in on the scam.

+1

Look Mr. Dickhead, you claimed weeks ago you had "very damaging info from eASIC" and have shown nothing. You claimed last week you were going to contact eASIC to get more information and would not take "no" for an answer. Again nothing.

You are nothing but a pathological liar and loudmouth.

Assuming Ken has actual intention of producing miners.

If it takes 4 months to get miners, with current funds we could pull 1% network hashrate day 1.... 4 months is enough to start from scratch.... I still rate the possibility of having miners within 4 months at about 50% but the return on investment potential makes the risk worth it.

Now grow the fuck up and stop speculating about everything you insecure bloody teenagers.

I also have never seen a single person talking about ordering a single machine.

Ken never had a working prototype.  For all we know the NDA with eASIC is for Ken to hire 12 illegal immigrants to butter toast for Ronnie Vasishta.

And last but not least, I've had 3-4 posts deleted so far since this thread opened.  It's always posts asking for proof.

So VMC sold miners for thousands of bitcoins. And we have a delay of months. Were are all the customers? With every other miner selling company you saw threads filled with customers that are angry and want their money back. Only think about avalon batch 3. But VMC has nothing like that?

That sounds really strange und unusual. I cant believe that the refunds are working so flawless that no one complains. I mean refunds are in USD and even when someone got a refund he would write about it right? But nothing from any customer? Can this be?

The worst thing in this all seems to me that we seemingly had a working prototype but ken decided we need a redesign.

Regarding forum deletions... i dont see that ken is deleting critics totally. Not one of my critic posts vanished. So i wonder what posts are deleted.

Nothing but speculation at best and probably FUD.  We need proof.

The only proven liar on here who we can say for certain has lied to try to benefit his own share position is VE/Canadianguy.

He deliberately lied about having a VMC machine. He then lied about being paid 5btc by zumzero.

Oh and he's also made repeated threats against Ken's life. If there is anyone on here with zero credibility its VE.

He is just an aggressive, immature, paranoid gym junkie. Get over this creep already.

Everything is pure speculation.  If I told you the moon was not made of cream cheese, you would tell me I'm speculating.  If I came back in a spaceship that Ken made for me, and stretched out my long noodly tentacle holding moon rocks, you'd tell me I landed on the wrong side, and was speculating and spreading FUD.  Your Cream Cheese Mining Belize operation is certain to be a booming success.
The contrived, desperate scenarios where Ken's lies turn into truths are contrived and desperate.  Sure, he could have shipped his old Avalons, his Bitfuries, or giftwrapped empty cases.  

Look at the date I posted that, dumbass.  I don't work for you

VE where is your update on eASIC? You were going to contact them and not take "no" for an answer.

So many sensitive little whiners here lately. Bonobo, what makes you think there is anything to this deal ?? It's all gone. At most, you guys have some numbers in a spreadsheet file. Maybe in a few more months they will make a fake exchange or a fake coin and tell all the "investors" that they have a certain amount of these shares. Then they will walk away and let you trade the worthless crap amongst yourselves. It will never be a share of a company, never pay dividends, never own a part of a mining farm. Quit snapping at people with your crazy ideas.

I agree that the burden of proof is on Ken, and not us.  I definitely think we need more info from the inside, but I just wanted some users to substantiate their extreme claims.  I now know what I need to know...it is all speculation on their part (which is fine).

More speculation: I think that Ken was talking about a different product other than the 28nm chipped machines that shipped, but he needs to let us know what the deal is.  Time will tell, I think I'll step back and just watch until more information comes out.

Ken stated in an update that first products have been shipped. In his latest update, he has stated that they are still working out the design, so we know there's no product. This is fact, unfortunately. Things are not lining up and the burden of proof is on Ken, not us.

Your mind games may work on others, but not me.  Don't speak for other people, and I don't give a fuck how popular you are.