Topic: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated] - page 242. (Read 771288 times)

If you have no stock and are posting every single day in this thread then you're not fine. It may take you a long time to realise it but you need to get outside more, enjoy life and quit posting in a thread where nobody cares what you think.

Good spot, thanks Jimmy I will change that line.
It should now say if you have 1000 shares you will make 705 USD per month from divs in February.
Altering the larger div table also...

Dear Ken,

Thank you for your continued hard work despite the never ending barrage of abuse and accusations from certain forum members.

Seeing a PR post and likely weekly updates is a great step forward. Having short term weekly targets that shareholders can see you hitting every week should help to boost confidence.

I feel like most of the hate has come from people trying to buy cheap shares in a company that is soon to be worth many multiples of IPO price, there are others whom as a result of the drastic increase in valuation of bitcoin have more fiat tied up in this endeavor than they feel comfortable with, although with Crypto-trade coming online very soon this can be alleviated to some extent. I'm sure they still believe you will come through but with so much $$$ on the line and a less than adequate amount of spherical objects to see it out, they sometimes get a little worked up and vent at you.

Many/most of the shareholders of this company are not learned investors they are simply a random collection of people from all walks of life who were at the right place at the right time and had some bitcoins.

I urge you to stay calm in the face of this abuse and use it to motivate you going forward to create as you yourself describe 'the world's largest bitcoin mining farm'.

Many of us still believe in you and eAsic to pull this off and we all eagerly await the day you post pics of our eAsic chips hashing away. That moment will be the single greatest achievement of the company so far and will silence all of the trolls instantly.

Good luck Ken and thank you again,

Sparky999

What is the delay in getting everything onto Crypto-Trade?  When can we expect trading to finally begin?

Ehhh?

This payout is guaranteed, it is written into the IPO.

You are talking semantics to try to win an argument. Go to your local store and quirey them on their 'money-back guarantee' - you can say 'but you might not be trading tomorrow your guarantee NOT a guarantee'. I'd love to see them kick your ass out of the store.

Nothing in life is guaranteed crumbs not even a guarantee.

Do you have anything sensible to say to me and the current shareholders whose shares you desperately want to buy?

We are going to try and give a weekly update on Wednesday of each week
to keep all of Investors up to date on our progress.

First, Ken will be taking all of the AMC-TENDER transaction and adding
those transactions to a database.  This database will be used to verify
your shares.  Once your shares are verified, they will added to the
queue which will be used at Crypto-Trade to create your account.  As
your account is created on Crypto-Trade the number of shares verified
will be added to your account.  If you already have a Crypto-Trade
account using the same email address used to verify your shares, then
the shares will just be added to that account.  The procedure when ready
will be posted in our Announcement the thread.

Active Mining PR Staff

Ken said intellihash would work for Avalon chips, so it's not on the hardware level.

He said he had to re-work the FH1 chips to improve profitability.

Public investor's protection plan
The first 10,000,000 ActiveMining shares have the privilege of getting all profits until BTC0.0025/share is paid, starting from the day when dividends begin to be paid.



That was a month before the latest Announcement crumbs with estimated 40Mill in profit from VMC and confirmed 2.1Mill online sales in November alone - so now things have changed. Do you expect investors to ignore the biggest News release in ACtM's history?

Again crumbs - just talk to me about the company's fundamentals.

I want to talk to you about what you think is a fair price for ACtM bearing in mind the full 0.0025 shareholder guarantee will be paid out by April and yearly divs will be circa 0.012 BTC

When KnC were writing their firmware they released the following statement:


https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-32

Perhaps Intellihash is something along these lines.

Ken is not alone in making such asides. It's very common and if you think it's a valid point you are getting very very desperate.

Gerald Ratner CEO wiped £500 million from the value of Ratners jewellers with one speech in 1991.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1573380/Doing-a-Ratner-and-other-famous-gaffes.html

Barclays chief executive Matt Barrett candidly criticised his own product, suggesting that the astute consumer would do well to steer well clear of it.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3199822.stm

Virgin's Sir Richard Branson once told a journalist: "Do you know why we are changing the name of Virgin trains? Because they're f****d."
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/gerald-ratner-and-the-top-10-business-1305316

Topman brand director David Shepherd once described customers, who bought Topman suits for their first court appearance as "hooligans" causing shares in Topman's owner, Arcadia, to fall 4.5p to 270p afterwards.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/gerald-ratner-and-the-top-10-business-1305316

So with an interest of ZERO but a post count running at around 15 per day on this thread have you thought about seeking medical help?

You are asking a lot by trying to convince people on here there are 'no machines'.

Former Apple and Broadcom Executive, Dr. Edward H. Frank, Joins eASIC Board of Directors
http://www.easic.com/former-apple-and-broadcom-executive-dr-edward-h-frank-joins-easic-board-of-directors/

Fancy giving Dr. Frank a call and letting him know we wont be needing the 2Mill order of ASIC chips anymore.

You will need to try harder crumbs to get that share price down.

ACtM investors have had a long hard education on here, they are not the inexperienced noobs they once were. No-one is going to sell to you for less than 0.0025 so be prepared to be a very MINOR shareholder. You deserve nothing less.  

Press Contacts:
eASIC Corporation
Niall Battson
(408) 855 9200
[email protected]

I thought this early on as well, however this line in the 'Details' section of the ActM listing made me rethink:


Seems that Ken has already laid out the overclocking potential he expects. Also, an overclocking utility wouldn't need anything done on the hardware end, as Ken has said is the case for Intellihash chips.

Crumbs instead of posting up pictures why don't you comment on the company fundamentals I just mentioned?

Why don't you tackle the facts?

Talk about what we know to be true - machines, cost of machines, network rates, divs, reinvestment fund, etc etc.

Can we start with the target share price of ACtM - how much are you willing to pay for yearly divs of 0.01208 BTC per share (based on a conservative value for BTC)?

Using latest update from Ken,
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3220847

Using new information in 'Details' on CryptoTrade
https://crypto-trade.com/tradex/ipo/amc_btc

Using and modifying some of the detail as set out by 4ju5tice
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3741018


OK so to begin we assume Ken is giving a fair a reasonable assessment of the current state of ACtM. We do that because Ken is not canvassing for any more shareholder funds, he is not asking anyone for money so has zero benefit in exaggerating potential future sales figures or the current state of ACtM finances or technical progress.

Where do we start - well I'd posit that if we can establish the position of ACtM by end January we can use that as a basis for forward projection. If we know the size of our farm by then we can see if it is large enough to become self-funding for expansion considering rising network difficulty.

So, ACtM has:

'2.3 Million in liquid assets, this includes Bitcoins, Cash from VMC, and   AMC purchased ActiveMining shares'
and
'As of this writing we have over 2.1 Million in sales for November, this excludes any fraudulent sales,'

So we can expect that by the time we are a few weeks into January we will have a fund of over 4Mill USD to spend solely on the ACtM mining farm.
Therefore by end of January we can expect to have in the region of 40 fully deployed 24.5TH/s machines on our farm. (The machines are retailing at 233k. I would expect cost-price would be sub 50% of retail, so at 90k per machine that gives us 400k change for install costs from a 4Mill fund).

In 4ju5tice's table, month 3 will be January so I am estimating network hash to be around 11PH/s by January end.
24.5TH/s X 40 = 980TH/s which is 8.9% of total hash.

So again taking into account rising difficulty through February, the ACtM farm will mine approx 7% of total BTC in that month which would be 7% of 100,800 (28day month) which is 7056 BTC.

BTC by end of February is likely to be 2,000 USD so 7056X2,000 = 14,112,00 USD.

With 50% of that going to shareholders that would mean we have 7Mill USD from farm profits to fund the next months expansion to the ACtM mining farm. Lets assume continued miner sales completely cover the running costs of the farm (sales are 2Mill per month right now).

So without going into too much detail you can easily see that with a 40% network increase per month and a 75% increase in funds per month the farm is comfortably self-sustaining month on month with a BTC price of 2k USD.

Now not only is the farm self-sustaining in those circumstances shareholders will be getting 50% of the 7056BTC mined each month which will amount to 0.0003528 per share (0.705 USD per share).
So if you hold 1,000 ACtM shares you will be making 705 USD per month come February.

So, I think it is easy to establish that with the initial funds that we have access to and the cost-price machines we can source from VMC that by February we will have a mining farm generating 7% of the monthly BTC. That profit will be enough to both pay share holders good divs and enlarge the farm at pace with the growth in network hash difficulty.


We haven't finished yet, now we move on to the ASIC chip-only sales estimated under 'AMC 12 Months Projections:' in 'Details' on CT.
'AMC through VMC expects to sale 1 Million of its 28nm Bitcoin Mining Chips in 2014.  After AMC recoups its
NRE of ~1 Million dollars, then AMC expects to receive ~40 Million dollars in profits for in VMC subsidary payment in 2014.'

So we have an estimated 40Million USD profits from sales in 2014. So after all VMC costs of production for all customers (mining machines and ASIC chips) we have 20Mill for investors and 20Mill to add to the mining farm investment fund.

So lets add approx 2Mill USD to shareholder divs. We don't know what BTC figure Ken is using for the prediction so we will stay at 2K. That would be another 1,000btc for shareholders each month taking monthly divs from 0.0003528 up to 0.0004528BTC per share.

And finally the extra 2Mill USD (approx) per month profit going to the mining farm will represent another 20 24.5TH/s mining machines a month leaving 200k per month for running costs for those 20 machines.

In summary then, by end January 2014 we will have in place a self-sustaining mining farm generating 7% of global hash through February. Profits will be enough to pay divs of over 0.7USD per share in February and also over-invest in the farm to bring machine growth well above network growth. With 75% growth in machines and only 40% in network we should comfortably have an increased share of total network each new month. Online sales will generate 2Mill per month USD which is enough to build and run another 20 24.5TH/s machines per month or cover entire installation and running costs of ACtM mining farm.

Forcast for divs from Feb (rising as the farm output increases above network rate by approx 20% per month.)

Feb 0.0004528
March 0.00054336
April 0.000652
May approx 0.0007824
Shareholder guarantee of 0.0025 per share met by May, so following public divs drop by 60%
June 0.0003756
July 0.0004507
August 0.0005408
Sep 0.000649
Oct 0.000779
Nov 0.0009348
Dec 0.001122

Total divs per publicly held share for next 12months = 0.0073519BTC.

That is with a constant BTC price of 2,000USD and a 20% increase in mining farm output (mined BTC) month on month.

With a BTC price averaging 4k USD expect mining farm size to grow through increased re-invest funds and hence final yearly div payout could be +75%

With BTC averaging 6k USD through the year, conservatively expect div payout to be + 125% of above estimate.

So with a yearly div payout of anything from 0.0074 to 0.018 BTC we would now estimate share price target using Dividend/Yield ratio. In a penny-stock D/Y ratios of 3:1 are common. i.e you invest 300dollars and recieve 100 dollars back in divs in year 1 - that is an excellent return but it reflects a high risk investment as the company could fold.
In more established and safer companies a D/Y ratio of 10:1 to 30:1 is acceptable. At 10:1 100 dollars invested will net you 10% in divs in year 1. OK this is the BTC ecomony, there is risk so as an example ASICMINER-PT operated at around 3:1 D/Y ratio at it's height. I think ACtM is already a far more open company than AM-PT and come Spring will have an established reputation, full accounts and full legitimacy. So a D/Y ratio of 5:1 is reasonable, even conservative.

OK so serious investors will be doing these sorts of calculations and estimates in any company or project they want to put serious money into. There are masses of big BTC holders who would jump at the chance to invest in a safe company that offered a D/Y ratio of 5:1. It would mean that if they put 500BTC into ACtM stock they would at year end recieve 100BTC in divs and still hold 500BTC in a stock of a company that is growing month on month.

So with 12month divs at 0.0074BTC (the payout with BTC at only 2k USD) a serious investor would be happy to pay 0.037 per share.

That is not conjecture - it is business.

So I think the above estimate of current situation and the forecast is reasonable and in most areas conservative. We have a safety margin in all areas of the business with for example the possibility of lower sales being covered adequately by the self-sustaining mining farm. So with the business progressing as predicted (by Ken) we should have a target share price of 0.037-0.05 BTC as this is what big investors will be happy to pay. Price will go this high I think it's a 95% certainty. And by May the 0.0025 guarantee will be paid out. That's currently 2.5 USD per share. If BTC goes above 2k USD expect share prices north of 0.05 BTC.


Edited - to change div figures and change 'P/E' ratio to 'D/Y'

I really expect being able to trade my shares within a few days, not months.

0.007? I sure hope so!


No comment.


I would advise creating a bitbet to prove your confidence and inspire us all...

Create a bitbet of 0.007 by february 1st, I am interested in the feel for that price and if you're right you would make even more money.

Also Green? really?

Come February 1, 2014, surely there will be a viable exchange up an running, and ActM stock will be traded freely and the price per share will be at a healthy 0.007.

Come February 1, 2014, the price of Bitcoin will surely be above $1000 USD on all the major exchanges, and especially on CampBX.com which I favor.

And, on February 1, 2014, ActM will be mining zillions of Terra-berra-hashes on its own mining hardware and the dividends will be flowing like mixed drinks at a Wall Street investment firm's holiday party in the 1980s.

Therefore, on February 1, 2014, anyone who owns just a measly minnow's share of 10,000 shares of ActM will be able to sell their shares for $70,000

Do you own just 10K shares of ActM? Then on February 1, of 2014 you will be worth $70,000 USD more than you are worth now.

Imagine you have 50,000 shares of ActM.  on February 1, 2014 you will be worth $350,000 US.  WHAT could you do with THAT much money? Just imagine the frenzy, the fun, the relief fro the stress of credit card debt, nagging bills, and all that financial distress, come February 1, 2014.

Colored Coins really is the best solution to the problem of having a way to freely exchange stock shares without fear of that exchange system being closed down by any state authority.

It is our sincere wish that ActM could be traded through Colored Coins.