Topic: [ActiveMining] The Official Active Mining Discussion Thread [Self-Moderated] - page 502. (Read 771288 times)

Say that the total costs for high volume production and assembly is $2/GH.
At this rate, total network come Dec 1st will be about 5,000TH/S.
To hold 5% of the network short-term, this would require 250TH/S.
This mining farm would require a production/assembly cost of $500,000.
Not sure how much Ken is planning on putting into the mining farm, but it must be much less than this.  

@VolanicEruptor I think you forget the mining profit, which will be not bad if ActM keeps a certian mount of percentage, say %5. http://blockchain.info/stats here I can see there are 4675 bitcoins mined for 24 hours, so ActM can mine 4675 *5% = 233BTC a day. and 25000 / 233 = 107 days to pay off?

Corrent me if I am wrong?

There are mature industries that specialize in building hardware. It had always seemed odd to me that three people could design a chip and mount that chip to a custom board in a way that somehow gives an advantage over the efforts of the experienced companies. If you meet Ken you realize that he has an unorthodox genius with a honest determination. Gerald brings a diverse technical understanding that far exceeds normal. It seemed plausible that these guys could somehow grab this opportunity before experienced companies realized the potential.

The experienced competition had enough capital to keep their efforts private. Two companies are showing better delivery odds now. ActM suddenly became a laggard on costs, marketing, and performance. ActM's following comes from it being a company that small investors can easily buy into. ActM investors can buy into both hardware and at-cost mining at the same time. There may be a timing advantage too, but that could easily disappear when difficulties are encountered. Fortunately eASIC's technology can speed ActM though some of the design flaws. ActM still has a chance to come out stronger than the competition, but I judge those as long odds now.

LABCOIN and BFL have soured the market with undelivered promises. I recall Ken anticipating that BFL would repeat their past delivery failures. LABCOIN looked like it would beat ActM on timing but technical difficulties turned into prolonged silence. It is a predictable cultural reaction, but it was a silence that was too similar to that of ActM's after NRE was raised. ActM has not reached the development stage that LABCOIN claimed. Difficulties are to be expected in anything so technical. A concern is that Ken's silence would allow the market price to crumble much as LABCOIN currently leaves investors with undue levels of risk with investments subject to inference from a series of vague updates that each come too late. My intuition tells me that Ken would be more open about delays and flaws than LABCOIN is, but I also perceive he cares enough about investors that trolls affect him personally. He went quiet when attacks and threats became personal, and yet he still allows known trolls to post to his new thread. Ken is a nice guy, and that is being used against him.

Investors don't leave because there are technical difficulties or reasonable delays, they leave when behavior appears unpredictable and better opportunities emerge. Leaving ActM is more about finding a better portfolio balance. I still hope for ActM to succeed, but these are markets with little liquidity and I'm not likely to rebalance to again favor ActM.

To be fair, "Icedrill" is doing the same thing as what I described, but in this case the lowest sell wall was for private investors only.  You my friend, are in the exact same boat in that regard.  Time will tell you that..

I think i have a promising solution:  
Ken starts a company, a virtual identity wholly owned by ActM, with:

1.  A pre-IPO blowout sale.
2.  Float the IPO & see where that goes.
3.  ? ? ?
4.  PROFIT!!

Oh, wait... He did that already...

I've also realized how putting up 2 selling walls kind of fucked us.
Not all shares were sold at .0025.  Most of them were given at .0005
We need 3.25 million in profit to pay us off, but we have invested not even half of that.  This was kind of a way to artificially inflate the share price and make it harder to earn .0025/share.  

In a perfect shareholder utopia, everyone would have paid the same price, so that the $ needed to pay off IPO price EQUALS the $ originally invested.. this way we would only have to make our original investment back to break even instead of needing 250%.  

If we are needing $3.25 million to pay off .0025/share, then we should have invested 3.25 million in the first place.. now the .0025 shareholders have to earn three times as much of their investment just to break even, due to buying an overvalued .0025 IPO

Look at it this way, the true "break-even" profit will always be 10,000,000 * IPO, however in our case the IPO does not = .0025.  Instead the IPO is averaged out between .0025 and .0005.  This puts the break-even profit point much lower than .0025.

I will lay this out on a spreadsheet to make it more clear

10,000,000 * 0.0025 = 25,000BTC (about 3.25 million dollars needed to pay off IPO investment).
The shitty thing, is I don't think Ken cares if he comes close to that number.  As long has he has "some" sales, then he gets to pay himself a salary with our funds to keep himself busy.  Even though its under contract that he pay .0025 to us first, he still gets his own salary, as this is part of what he refers to as "engineering costs".  

The only way I see this turning around is if we can get a big buyer.  If someone gets a hard-on for these VMC machines when they come out, they might decide to drop a couple million on a new mining farm with VMC only, maybe even with the help of an IPO.  This unfortunately won't happen until we actually have something.  This means Ken has to get some machines built with NO DELAY so he can demonstrate its hash power.  From that point, delays from competitors would only be icing on the cake. 

Well he's in a place where whatever he does, a proportion of everyone will think it was wrong. Then also there's a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking and playing "Captain Hindsight"

I think AMC is in a fairly strong position for the long haul, and as has been said, low share price is gravy for long haulers, they can take advantage.

I really do doubt that. The current share price has NO effect whatsoever on the future profitability of this company. Share price means nothing at this time in the companys evolution. ACtM is as strong today as it has always been - no change.

In essence:

INVESTORS
Share price > effects investors, makes them sad, panic, sell, cry.

COMPANY
Share price > does not effect in any way the future success of ACtM.

If share price goes to 0.0001 today or 0.1 today the future ACtM business profits and divs will be the same.

The only ones going through 'difficult' times right now are the over-invested worried about loosing it all, those wanting to flip but can't because they bought above current price, those who believe the FUD and don't see a profitable future anymore and do/don't want to sell at this price.

The company itself is having an incredible period right now - eASIC deal confirmed with excellent chip produced, 400% increase in online pre-orders.

Look at what this hugely successful North American tech firm which has a basketful of testimonials from the biggest tech firms on the planet (eASIC) has to say about ACtM.

"VMC has used its vast cryptographic algorithm experience to take full advantage of the advanced performance and power reduction features in our eASIC Nextreme-3 28nm architecture", said Jasbinder Bhoot, VP of Marketing at eASIC. "This has allowed VMC to architect a very high performance Bitcoin miner, while reducing overall power consumption", added Bhoot.
http://www.easic.com/vmc-uses-easic-to-achieve-24-756-ths-bitcoin-miner/

What more are you people looking for? I really think a lot of sellers/liquidators should look again at what eASIC bring to the table and have a serious think about where this company will be in 2months time. I'm not going to beg anyone to get back into ACtM - it doesn't bother me in the slightest, I'm buying a few k more every week and this low price suits me down to the ground. But it seems a real shame that seemingly rationale people are being so down right now. Again, share price means nothing, (especially in this thin market) get over it and look at the long term potential.

Who is doing the PCB and software ? How far along is that?

thing is, I dont know Ken, but he doesnt seem to be regarded too highly by many. So be it, more important i think is that we have little reason to doubt e-asic's ability to design and produce working chip in a timely fashion. Thats at least 70% of the risk right there. What remains is mostly an ability to turn working chips in to working miners (yes Im ignoring product sales). Any reassurance on that front would go a long way making this look at the very least as a plausibly profitable venture, just by self mining at hardware cost. Hardware sales would be icing on the cake. Dont get me wrong, very sweet icing that I dont want to see ignored.

...but *you* take full responsibility, and that's why Ken should listen to *you*

About Advisory Board and advisers:

I kinda understand, why Advisory Board was getting on Ken's nerves. AB takes no actual responsibility and never executes plans they come up with. Usually, they just talk and tell you what to do. And this is it - thy are useless.
Hire (not for cash/salary but for a option to buy shares below market) to a qualified management (Sales, Production etc) who must come up with a plan, take full responsibility and execute it with a measurable results. What is measured, must be set before works starts.

PS! In startups, do not hire management types who ask for a fat salary. They will bleed you dry and then walk away.  Minimum salary and options is the only way to do it. If you manager tells you, he can not survive for 3-6 months with out a fat paycheck, he/she is useless for you.

Ken, I remember you guys promised proper financial reports.
Can you give us a date, when we can expect it. Please include proper balance sheet with Assets, Liabilities, Shareholders Equity etc.
If your accountant (and/or accounting software) can not compile a proper balance sheet, please fire her at once. With out balance sheet, we nor you can not evaluate Actm and make any sane predictions for the future. Obviously we like to see all the missing reports (PL,CF) for previous months.

It was asked before: "How many Gh are you planning to bring online and at what date and cost"
Please make a schedule (estimates) for November, Dec, Jan, Feb

Something like this will do:

Nov 2013 Gh online:
Dec 2013 Gh online:
Jan 2014 Gh online:
Feb 2014 Gh online:

Average cost per Gh:  <- without this number, Gh are are close to meaningless.
 
Cheers!

While there is a very obvious and real lack of confidence in Ken's abilities, I think theres only one question that we all need to understand......

Ken..... is anyone else, other than you, ever going to make decisions for this company?

+1

That's an interesting question. If this information is under NDA then maybe Ken could give us at least a vague percentage of the product price. Will be about half of it or a third?

Ken,

I understand there are many pieces of information you can't and or don't want to release to share holders, but can you give any insight on the $/GH that ActM will be paying for it's own in house mining?

Thanks

Volcanic Eruptor has a colourful history of trolling the ActM/AMC threads prior to becoming a fan boy.

And anyway, why is he still here?  I thought he rage quitted yesterday and sold all his shares after making a classic error by allowing his emotions to make investment decisions.

We are undoubtedly going through some difficult times at the moment and I think key decisions that only Ken can make will decide the direction and ultimately the long term success of this company.  I sincerely hope that he listens to what people are saying and I'd like to ask him if he could explain his reasoning behind rejecting the recommendation to overhaul the website and also if he accepts that numbers for pre-sales are way below target and a drastic re-think in strategy is essential to save this company.  One of the biggest issues is that there is almost zero confidence from shareholders at present and if you can't convince them, then the chances of convincing potential buyers are very unlikely.  Take a look at the VMC - FAST HASH thread that Volcanic Eruptor started and it will become all too clear.  The payment method needs addressing and we are leaking pre-orders.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/vmc-fast-hash-6gh-296565

Perhaps Ken could compile a list of issues raised in this thread so far and have a go at responding to them in a Q & A type format.  Even if responses to some points are short, I'm sure shareholders would be extremely pleased to see such an effort and perhaps it might go some way in turning around our misfortunes.

All said and done, I do believe in this company and have been in since the 0.0005 IPO and am holding firm.  

Ken,

Glad to see you back on the forum responding to questions. For me it was too late though. I've met you and the rest of your team too. I talked with you for a couple hours and saw your excitement just prior to the eASIC announcement. I looked you in the eye and trusted you. I probably know you more than most of your investors. At one time I was one of the top five shareholders (on BF at least). It seemed like as soon as you got the NRE there was no need to keep people informed--and NDA was a poor excuse. The only time you spoke up was just after whales dumped shares. I knew ActM was not a scam, but I could not explain the silence. Watching the stress on the forum was irritating. AM hadn't given updates that I'd ever read and that was fine because it was a predictable pattern. ActM showed an inconsistent pattern, and that became a concern. At some point I finally decided that I'd had enough, and it no longer mattered to me what you'd return to say. Good news just became an opportunity to sell. I'm just a small ActM shareholder now and will likely hold here. NEOBEE looks more interesting. Very likely they won't have a forum presence or respond to every troll inspired fear. What they appear ready to offer is the predictability that markets value most. If you want to live by your motto of helping investors then start with being predictably honest and work toward profitability. The trolls weren't effective until (perhaps) they had gotten to you. Moderate their posts with a passion. We've all seen what happens when they get the run of the place.

Best of Luck

what happened with avavlon refund

Give us updates on the progress of the chips, specs, etc.