Advantage over the bookmaker. - page 2.

Casdinyard

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on August 20, 2024, 02:45:38 AM

I decided to find out more about the opinion of forum users about their advantages in gambling. Everyone knows that in sports betting it is not enough to predict the outcome correctly. It is equally important, and perhaps even more important, to do it more accurately than the bookmaker. This is the disadvantage of sports betting: we must be more successful than the bookmaker in predicting the results of a sports match. Simply put, we must be smarter than the bookmaker. But is this possible?
I know that a huge number of players refuse to make a forecast of the results of a sports match, refuse to engage in analysis. They believe that sports betting is created for entertainment and place bets more or less randomly.
However, if we still treat sports betting as a serious activity (that is, we do it not only for entertainment), then I would like to ask you this question:

What do you think is your advantage over the bookmaker?
And in general, do you have an advantage over the bookmaker?
Is it even possible to have an advantage over the bookmaker?

No doubt people are going to glaze over trivial stuff like this, and I'm not saying they're wrong, but do you really have to through all this over a win? Are you really that competitive over something you don't even have an agency over, given that most games are 50/50 anyway, and those that are not are already deterministic so you don't even need to "one up the bookmaker" or whatever you're trying to imply here.

I keep saying that people shouldn't make gambling something bigger than it is, cause that's when problems start to arrive, and this is no different. You have people here making gambling a bigger deal than what it is supposed to be and where does that lead them? To more problems. If you're thinking this is nothing and is just a trivial matter then by all means, let yourself be addicted to it however you want. But don't say we didn't warn you lol.

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Quote from: Frankolala on August 25, 2024, 02:54:41 PM

Gambling shouldn't be take so serious the way you are saying it because it is based majorly on luck and not analysis or skill. If you put all the effort that you have into gambling, it does not mean that you will be able to win more than your losses.

There is no way that a gambler will be ahead or smarter than the bookmakers because it is not only one person that set those odds. Bookmakers come together and analyze the match together before the come with those odds giving them a better advantage over the gamblers.

Gambling is more about luck than analysis or skills. Being so unpredictable a means and trying to base it on the same to get a steady income is high risk. We can be very doomed but there is no assurance that we will win more frequently compared to losing. Just because a person knows much regarding a specific sport or game, does not mean they can beat the bookie.

Betting dealers surround themselves with a panel of experts who carefully evaluate different dimensions of the issue before setting the odds. They have complete information and sophisticated technology due to which their forecast is correct. The dealers, therefore, always retain the advantage here; gamblers find it almost impossible to beat them on a consistent basis. One would thus be well advised to regard gambling as a form of entertainment rather than a means to an end. This helps reduce pressure and disappointment, and keep gambling experiences fun.

KTChampions

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on August 20, 2024, 02:45:38 AM

I decided to find out more about the opinion of forum users about their advantages in gambling. Everyone knows that in sports betting it is not enough to predict the outcome correctly. It is equally important, and perhaps even more important, to do it more accurately than the bookmaker. This is the disadvantage of sports betting: we must be more successful than the bookmaker in predicting the results of a sports match. Simply put, we must be smarter than the bookmaker. But is this possible?
I know that a huge number of players refuse to make a forecast of the results of a sports match, refuse to engage in analysis. They believe that sports betting is created for entertainment and place bets more or less randomly.
However, if we still treat sports betting as a serious activity (that is, we do it not only for entertainment), then I would like to ask you this question:

What do you think is your advantage over the bookmaker?
And in general, do you have an advantage over the bookmaker?
Is it even possible to have an advantage over the bookmaker?

In general, the idea of being smarter than the bookmaker is equivalent to the idea of being stronger than the current world champion in anything (or even several champions, since the odds providers are entire organizations).
But sometimes, opportunities arise to earn crumbs where the bookmaker earns big - for example, in games where the cashflow (which bookmakers take into account) does not correspond to the theoretical odds of the teams.
Besides, in my opinion, the bettor's advantage over the bookmaker is that the bettor is not obliged to place a bet, while the bookmaker is forced to always list the odds (in fact, he is obliged to accept the bet at any time). This gives a variety of opportunities for the bettor.

Dewi Aries

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I think it is clear that one of the reasons why we prefer to treat sports betting or maybe other types of games without taking it seriously is because it is indeed unlikely for us to always be able to predict everything accurately, and this is also the reason why many people say and suggest to only make these bets as entertainment when we have boring free time.

As often said by many people that the bookie will always be the real winner, or the bookie will always be superior to the gamblers, and also another reason is that we will never be able to know what will happen in the future, although I understand that analytical skills can be relied on but it is nothing more than a tool, often I see everything that is really unexpected happens in a match that makes me end the game with a loss even though I previously bet based on analysis and knowledge.

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Sports betting does have its own challenges, such as beating the bookie in terms of accuracy when predicting outcomes. This is no mean feat considering that the bookmarker has access to very deep data and sophisticated algorithms on how odds are determined. It's not impossible.

The main advantage that a gambler may have over an oddsmaker is deeper information or unique insight into a specific team or sport which will not be fully reflected in the line. This can include proprietary data about player form, or team chemistry only privy to observers who follow the sport avidly.

But, one thing that should be very clear to all individuals is that Betting on sports is to be considered a risky endeavor. Sure, taking your betting seriously will definitely better your odds but still, some amount of risk has to come with it. So while it's possible to gain an advantage over the bookies, it's not something you can do without having a bit of guts, in addition to being very calculated, and thorough (in many cases) a little risky.

shasan

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Quote from: nimogsm on August 24, 2024, 04:36:11 PM

rather, the bookmaker sets the parameters and conditions of the game and only a few events can be accurate, and everything else is the bookmaker’s own net profit if the player did not guess the event. The advantage can only be inside information about the game (for example, a fixed match), but this game can also be challenged by the bookmaker if in doubt in a random win by a random player.

it is true that the bookmaker sets the parameters that may help the gambling site whether they will be in profit or not. Many a gambling site are making a lot of money for the parameter of them. But creating a site is not easy and they can make a good amount of money even if it can make a loser.

Frankolala

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Gambling shouldn't be take so serious the way you are saying it because it is based majorly on luck and not analysis or skill. If you put all the effort that you have into gambling, it does not mean that you will be able to win more than your losses.

There is no way that a gambler will be ahead or smarter than the bookmakers because it is not only one person that set those odds. Bookmakers come together and analyze the match together before the come with those odds giving them a better advantage over the gamblers.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on August 20, 2024, 02:45:38 AM

What do you think is your advantage over the bookmaker?
And in general, do you have an advantage over the bookmaker?
Is it even possible to have an advantage over the bookmaker?

The player's advantage is inversely proportional to the risk he is willing to take.

A player who plays without much ambition, places simple bets, betting on single wins, losses or draws, places his bets in advance and always studies his moves thoroughly, the risk is always small, but the profits are also small.

However, there are those who prefer to bet on exact results, make multiple bets or even bet online (with the game in progress) or change it during the game according to the current situation. This type of bet certainly provides more profit to the player, but it is also much riskier.

For this reason, I believe that there is no factor A or B, house or player advantage, it all depends on each person's style of play and the bookmakers simply manage this very well: What gives them fewer chances is less profitable for the player, while what can make more money for their players is riskier for them.

The house never loses, but each player can choose the style of play that suits him best and try to take advantage of it.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on August 20, 2024, 02:45:38 AM

What do you think is your advantage over the bookmaker?
And in general, do you have an advantage over the bookmaker?
Is it even possible to have an advantage over the bookmaker?

On your lucky day, imagine you decided to go against the odd and bet on an underdog but all of a sudden they managed to pull out a miracle and made history that also brought you some money which isn't exactly an advantage but that's the basic concept of sports betting.

You mean having advantage over bookmakers as you win all the matches you bet on then it's definitely not possible and in worst case scenario you lose all of your money.

o48o

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on August 20, 2024, 02:45:38 AM

-cut-
Is it even possible to have an advantage over the bookmaker?

In random cases that you are familiar with yes, but constantly no. Bookmakers have teams and algorithms that analyze the data 24/7. You can do only so much as a one random gambler. If you happen to be some prediction genius, good for you but in most cases you would need to work extra hard to get results, and bookmakers get paid to do that. You would only get paid if you won, and still in the end you won't know if it was because of your detailed and deep dive prediction or pure luck.

That said, it's sometimes just fun to analyze and i feel it's part of the experience for some people. Like investigative reporting or something. Learning things and connecting dots can be very rewarding.

Slow death

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In my opinion, no matter what people do, as long as they keep betting, in the long run they will lose everything. The only scenario in which people can really beat the house is when they get a game right with very high odds and win a lot, and that is an amount of money that recovers all the losses that the person had and after that the person stops playing forever. If the person keeps betting, even if they create many strategies, that person will be losing, winning sometimes, but most of the time they are losing, so the house always wins, unless the person wins a lot of money on a bet and stops playing forever. In my case, I have been making multibet bets with high odds because that way, when I get it right, I can have more money to continue betting. But I am always aware that the house always wins.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on August 20, 2024, 02:45:38 AM

What do you think is your advantage over the bookmaker?

A gambler has an advantage, but to some extent; in sport betting, the final decision isn't influenced by the casinos themselves... Mind you, the casinos don't make predictions against yours ( I think you wrote something of that nature in your post... That's a fallacious statement). The ability for a game to be played on on a neutral ground - not more of a preprogrammed thing is already an edge against the casinos, so all they'd do is limit the options that a user has... Haven't y'all seen some options being locked on a casino? That right there would always be 100% against them.

Quote

And in general, do you have an advantage over the bookmaker?
Is it even possible to have an advantage over the bookmaker?

The idea is; everyone isn't going to wager on the said bet all at the same time, neither is everyone going with one option... The casino regulates the odds as it draws closer to the kickoffs

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on August 20, 2024, 02:45:38 AM

What do you think is your advantage over the bookmaker?

Error in odds. Besides that there’s no such thing as an advantage since there’s always a house edge that cause lower odds on all match they offer.

Quote

And in general, do you have an advantage over the bookmaker?

No

Quote

Is it even possible to have an advantage over the bookmaker?

Arbitrage betting and fixed match are the only way I know to beat bookmaker on their own games since this is a sure bet but they don’t allow this which means there’s no legit way to beat the bookmaker.

Fortify

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on August 20, 2024, 02:45:38 AM

I decided to find out more about the opinion of forum users about their advantages in gambling. Everyone knows that in sports betting it is not enough to predict the outcome correctly. It is equally important, and perhaps even more important, to do it more accurately than the bookmaker. This is the disadvantage of sports betting: we must be more successful than the bookmaker in predicting the results of a sports match. Simply put, we must be smarter than the bookmaker. But is this possible?
I know that a huge number of players refuse to make a forecast of the results of a sports match, refuse to engage in analysis. They believe that sports betting is created for entertainment and place bets more or less randomly.
However, if we still treat sports betting as a serious activity (that is, we do it not only for entertainment), then I would like to ask you this question:

What do you think is your advantage over the bookmaker?
And in general, do you have an advantage over the bookmaker?
Is it even possible to have an advantage over the bookmaker?

It's not even that, a bookmaker will purposefully build in an extra margin of error in the odds that they offer the person placing the bet. So if the player has to be very selective about the bets they place, where the built on margin of error still allows for a profitable bet to take place. I'd say the biggest place someone placing a bet could make the best decisions is in a live game, where there will be less data available, it's less able to analyse live and there may be factors unaccounted for in the calculation - like a team playing very well, but down a player for some reason and offering extremely favorable odds. It's hard to pick them out accurately as the betting companies still make better calculations.

Distinctin

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We can't beat the bookies because they make money regardless of the game's outcome. Bookies profit from the "juice" or commission they charge on bets, typically with odds around 1.90 to 1.95. If bookies were betting against us, we wouldn't see line movements; instead, they move the line to balance the betting public on both sides. This strategy ensures they stay on the safe side and make money from the juice.

To gain an edge over other gamblers, we should focus more on the odds we're taking. The outcome of the game might be 50-50 at times, but if we consistently take discounted odds, we'll never be ahead in the long run. Mathematically, we'll lose over time since sports betting is, after all, a game of prediction.

Poker Player

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on August 20, 2024, 02:45:38 AM

What do you think is your advantage over the bookmaker?

The advantage is small and reduced to a few small niches that successful sports bettors know how to find.

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on August 20, 2024, 02:45:38 AM

And in general, do you have an advantage over the bookmaker?

Of course not.

Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on August 20, 2024, 02:45:38 AM

Is it even possible to have an advantage over the bookmaker?

Yes, it is possible, but it's a bit like in poker. Only a small percentage of the total are successful long-term winners, and this requires time, dedication and effort, apart from the use of software to achieve it. Other aspects such as bankroll management and psychological control should also be taken into account.

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Quote from: AmoreJaz on August 24, 2024, 07:43:56 PM

Very few can indeed become successful in gambling especially if you are talking about luck-based games. I can understand if it is in poker or sportsbetting. Other than that, it would be very hard for a gambler to attain success in terms of financials.
Even sportsbettor are not always successful as it depends on how they are familiar with the sports or the strategies they are deploying when it comes to odds.

in any gambling in my opinion the advantage that a dealer has is greater than the player, especially with a game where the victory depends purely on luck, of course no player can succeed just by betting, even if they do it with a high bet amount, it is not possible for them to win big because if they are not lucky, no matter how big the bet is, it will not result in a win.
including sports betting, which in my opinion, even though this game requires skill or is based on how familiar they are with the sport or the strategy they apply, as you said, is the same as luck that is still involved. it is very unlikely to be successful just by gambling, even to be able to get consistent wins, I think that is just a myth that can happen in the long term.

Julien_Olynpic

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I would also like to note such an advantage as deep and painstaking analysis. Many of us know outstanding analysts who were able to earn money on sports betting. For example, these are analysts such as Bob Voulgaris and Nate Silver. For example, Nate Silver, the author of the book "Noise and Signal", told how he developed a program for a more in-depth calculation of the behavior of players during sports matches and predicting the results of sports matches in baseball. His ideas were based on the fact that with increasing age of players, their effectiveness decreases. Thus, knowing the statistics of each player, his age, you can increase the effectiveness of forecasts.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on August 20, 2024, 02:45:38 AM

What do you think is your advantage over the bookmaker?
And in general, do you have an advantage over the bookmaker?
Is it even possible to have an advantage over the bookmaker?

One of the few advantages that comes to mind is timing, one of the downsides to that advantage is spending more time monitoring the markets because you have to shop for odds once they open the markets. Bookmakers aren't always quick to catch up with the teams, and you'll stumble upon a few opportunities before they get overvalued.

I used to have an advantage against the bookmaker before, and I paid the price by getting my account limited.

It's always possible to find an advantage in sports betting, but bookmakers can quickly catch winning bettors before it goes out of hand.

AmoreJaz

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Quote from: Charles-Tim on August 24, 2024, 07:39:27 PM

Quote from: OgNasty on August 24, 2024, 07:30:22 PM

Quote from: Saint-loup on August 24, 2024, 05:49:23 PM

Of course it's possible, that's precisely what are doing professional bettors. They are able to find odds giving EV above 0.

They may be able to find cases where the odds are in their favor, but typically this means either they have other bettors to balance things out, or the payout is adjusted accordingly. Over time, nobody beats the house. Professional or not. Luck always runs out as they say. You can’t cheat the numbers.

I do not like such word like professional gamblers. The reason is because most people that are betting or gambling that are successful are not successful because of gambling but successful because of something that they earn money from like businesses. Gambling is even taking money from them. The people that I know that make money from gambling are those that tried their luck with small amount of money and won huge amount of money. Example is using $50 to win $20000. If such person use the money to bet or gamble, he will lose all the money back.

Very few can indeed become successful in gambling especially if you are talking about luck-based games. I can understand if it is in poker or sportsbetting. Other than that, it would be very hard for a gambler to attain success in terms of financials.
Even sportsbettor are not always successful as it depends on how they are familiar with the sports or the strategies they are deploying when it comes to odds.

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