Already delays in BFL shipment plans? - page 14.

loshia

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Quote from: bitmar on November 27, 2012, 03:26:12 PM

Quote from: loshia on November 27, 2012, 02:24:40 PM

Quote from: SgtSpike on November 27, 2012, 11:16:23 AM

If they were going to take everyone's money and run, it would have been done a long time ago. They are very likely losing money by having to give out refunds vs the number of new orders they might be taking in.

I am really sorry about BFL. I suggest all of us to send them some money so they can cover their loss and make some money on top? Or just to speed the proses up? We all know that long term winners are ASIC producers themselves. Right? If i were one of you guy's who preordered almost half an year ago i will feel like i am badly F....D UP. The winners eventually will be the lucky ones from us which happen to have ASIC's delivered first. Actually i am starting to doubt about this also.

hardware manufacturers always win, forcing you to buy a new firmware, new improvements, new product generation.
BFL double wins, can earn by selling hardware and using it for mining. With your money making machine to make money. And for the year, they will force you to bought the second generation. This is a good business Wink

All this is hypothetical because there is no guarantee that they will succeed.

Nobody is forcing you. I do not agree with it. It is a decision made by us. But is about time for the community to give them what they deserve. I mean that everybody shall ask for refund that is what they deserve. And if they have invested any money in chips which is doubtful also They will get bankruptcy!

scrybe

sr. member

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Quote from: AndreyE on November 27, 2012, 03:23:17 PM

And there is no protection from a new online currency rising? Any moment bitcoin might cost zero, because some other @more advanced@ currency is out, e.g. SHA-2048 ^))

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=betamax&l=1

Market Adoption should not be confused with Technological Advancement.

loshia

legendary

Activity: 1610

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Quote from: AndreyE on November 27, 2012, 03:23:17 PM

And there is no protection from a new online currency rising? Any moment bitcoin might cost zero, because some other @more advanced@ currency is out, e.g. SHA-2048 ^))

It is same like gold and USD.. Bitcoin costs something which mean nothing more but only trust. I am pretty sure that USD and other currency are like bitcoins without trust they are dead. Nobody can convince me that they cost something..

I have trust in bitcoin and it is not only me. That is why it still exists. Each new digital currency has to earn trust which is not an easy task

Epoch

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Activity: 922

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Quote from: AndreyE on November 27, 2012, 03:23:17 PM

And there is no protection from a new online currency rising? Any moment bitcoin might cost zero, because some other @more advanced@ currency is out, e.g. SHA-2048 ^))

Off topic.

bitmar

full member

Activity: 182

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Quote from: loshia on November 27, 2012, 02:24:40 PM

Quote from: SgtSpike on November 27, 2012, 11:16:23 AM

If they were going to take everyone's money and run, it would have been done a long time ago. They are very likely losing money by having to give out refunds vs the number of new orders they might be taking in.

I am really sorry about BFL. I suggest all of us to send them some money so they can cover their loss and make some money on top? Or just to speed the proses up? We all know that long term winners are ASIC producers themselves. Right? If i were one of you guy's who preordered almost half an year ago i will feel like i am badly F....D UP. The winners eventually will be the lucky ones from us which happen to have ASIC's delivered first. Actually i am starting to doubt about this also.

hardware manufacturers always win, forcing you to buy a new firmware, new improvements, new product generation.
BFL double wins, can earn by selling hardware and using it for mining. With your money making machine to make money. And for the year, they will force you to bought the second generation. This is a good business Wink

All this is hypothetical because there is no guarantee that they will succeed.

AndreyE

member

Activity: 86

Merit: 10

And there is no protection from a new online currency rising? Any moment bitcoin might cost zero, because some other @more advanced@ currency is out, e.g. SHA-2048 ^))

Epoch

legendary

Activity: 922

Merit: 1003

Quote from: AndreyE on November 27, 2012, 03:02:10 PM

And how long with 100x difficulty it is more to mine 90-95% of all the bitcoins?

The bitcoin protocol automatically adjusts difficulty every 2016 blocks (about 2 weeks) so that, on average, 1 block is mined every 10 minutes. The difficulty is adjusted based on average network hashrate.

If the difficulty increases 100x it just means that if you mine 1 BTC/day now, you will mine 0.01 BTC/day; in other words a 100x difficulty increase means there are 100x more miners than there were before to share in the pie. But blocks will be mined at the same rate as they always have, and always will: 1 block per 10 minutes (on average).

10M BTC have been mined in the past 4 years. In the next 4 years there will be 5M BTC mined. In the following 4 years there will be 2.5M BTC mined. And so on, halving every 4 years, until 21M BTC have been mined (decades from now). This rate is unaffected by network hashrate or difficulty.

The first halving happens tomorrow. After tomorrow, your daily mining income will be cut in half (assuming difficulty stays the same). Many GPU miners will become unprofitable (i.e. their electricity costs will be greater than their miing income).

AndreyE

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And how long with 100x difficulty it is more to mine 90-95% of all the bitcoins?

Meatball

sr. member

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Quote from: Epoch on November 27, 2012, 02:31:55 PM

Quote from: AndreyE on November 27, 2012, 02:27:31 PM

Can anyone count what's the diffuclty going to be like in Feb-March, when everyone will have their hands on 100k chips?!!!! I wonder if it's worth anything.

Also I wonder if there is ANY example what I could possibly do with this ASIC after it's useless. Maybe another SHA256 currency? Maybe it's worth anything after all?

Each BFL chip is currently rated for 7.5Ghps. If 100k chips were to be mining, it would add 750 Terahash to the network. Difficulty would be 30x what it is now. And that does not include the chips coming from the other vendors. Not all 100k chips are yet bought, so deployment will not be 'instantaneous'.

750 TH and that's just BFL's. Be more with the other ASIC vendors as well. Also, with the reward drop, that's 30x what it is going be like tomorrow. More like 60x (you'll be getting half as much per hash) difficulty jump compared to where it is right now today.

Epoch

legendary

Activity: 922

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Quote from: AndreyE on November 27, 2012, 02:27:31 PM

Can anyone count what's the diffuclty going to be like in Feb-March, when everyone will have their hands on 100k chips?!!!! I wonder if it's worth anything.

Also I wonder if there is ANY example what I could possibly do with this ASIC after it's useless. Maybe another SHA256 currency? Maybe it's worth anything after all?

Each BFL chip is currently rated for 7.5Ghps. If 100k chips were to be mining, it would add 750 Terahash to the network. Difficulty would be 30x what it is now. And that does not include the chips coming from the other vendors. Not all 100k chips are yet bought, so deployment will not be 'instantaneous'.

AndreyE

member

Activity: 86

Merit: 10

Can anyone count what's the diffuclty going to be like in Feb-March, when everyone will have their hands on 100k chips?!!!! I wonder if it's worth anything.

Also I wonder if there is ANY example what I could possibly do with this ASIC after it's useless. Maybe another SHA256 currency? Maybe it's worth anything after all?

loshia

legendary

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1000

Quote from: SgtSpike on November 27, 2012, 11:16:23 AM

If they were going to take everyone's money and run, it would have been done a long time ago. They are very likely losing money by having to give out refunds vs the number of new orders they might be taking in.

I am really sorry about BFL. I suggest all of us to send them some money so they can cover their loss and make some money on top? Or just to speed the proses up? We all know that long term winners are ASIC producers themselves. Right? If i were one of you guy's who preordered almost half an year ago i will feel like i am badly F....D UP. The winners eventually will be the lucky ones from us which happen to have ASIC's delivered first. Actually i am starting to doubt about this also.

mrb

legendary

Activity: 1512

Merit: 1028

Quote from: TheBible on November 27, 2012, 06:29:50 AM

Quote from: SgtSpike on November 27, 2012, 01:46:22 AM

Quote from: repentance on November 27, 2012, 01:28:06 AM

Josh just posted an update on the BFL forums. It's gonna be another couple of weeks if all goes well.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/437-asic-update-26-november-2012-a.html#post6239

I'm kind of horrified that Josh only just found out about the reason for the delay. A flaw in the chip is something BFL should have been informed of as soon as the problem was detected.

Called it.

Thanks for finally giving us the reason behind the delay Josh.

100,000 chips is 7.5*100,000 = 750TH/s. Unless there's a significant price increase (let's all hope), then that takes just about all incentive out of buying ASICs once those chips are eaten up. Payback would be around a year at that point... fairly risky in the world of Bitcoin.

You guys do this exact same dance with every single scammer, and you never see it coming somehow.

Here's a hint, they all give you these bullshit excuses. Over and over again, and you all throw your money at them and thank them, then act completely stunned when they bolt with it.

Here's a test of BFL's legitimacy. That ASIC you're blowing money on, have you even seen a prototype? Any evidence that it would even work if it did ship? Any evidence that the design behind it is sound? Anything at all?

BFL's legitimacy is dead simple to assert: they managed to be greatly successful and profitable inventing, making, and selling thousands of FPGA Singles. I have many of them in my very own hands.

And if you have a profitable business, the natural human reaction, even for greedy people (the type who may want to defraud), is to simply expand the business, not to do something riskier by defrauding your customers.

bitmar

full member

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Quote from: stevegee58 on November 27, 2012, 01:31:08 PM

Having personally worked on a project where our final product was an ASIC I can tell you that your chances of having a working first piece are almost zero.

You get everything working in Verilog on your FPGA development board and send the Verilog files to the fab. They do the layout, make the masks, produce the first lot, do testing, ship you the first parts. You get the parts and damn, guess what you forgot something dumb. So it's back to the fab with rev 2 of the Verilog files.

Are You talking about Full Custom Design?
whatever, chance of success depends on how quickly detect and correct bugs.
bugs are expensive, time is money, money is limited, customers have a limit of endurance Wink

squeept

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Activity: 154

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Quote from: stevegee58 on November 27, 2012, 01:31:08 PM

Having personally worked on a project where our final product was an ASIC I can tell you that your chances of having a working first piece are almost zero.

You get everything working in Verilog on your FPGA development board and send the Verilog files to the fab. They do the layout, make the masks, produce the first lot, do testing, ship you the first parts. You get the parts and damn, guess what you forgot something dumb. So it's back to the fab with rev 2 of the Verilog files.

That's one way to skin a horse.

rjbtc

member

Activity: 69

Merit: 10

I have no dog in this fight at all, just sort of watching it all go down from afar. That being said, why can't BFL be more open with everything they are doing here? It's not as if they are launching a new iThing or anything else people want just because it's cool. They are essentially selling a product that is designed to make people money, and timing is everything in this case. Can they not just show their communications with the fab, stating when the delivery date will be and any issues they are having? It's not KFC revealing the 11 herbs and spices, just saying that the chicken farm had a delay, here's why and here is the new estimated delivery date - straight from the farm/fab. Also, and again I have nothing ordered from anyone here but I'll echo others in saying that the company spokesman comes off like a tremendous ass in these forums. Having a dual account for personal/PR makes no difference at all, and seems almost insulting to the customer base in a way.

This has got to be excruciating for anyone who was hoping to cash in on early ASICs.

stevegee58

legendary

Activity: 916

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Having personally worked on a project where our final product was an ASIC I can tell you that your chances of having a working first piece are almost zero.

You get everything working in Verilog on your FPGA development board and send the Verilog files to the fab. They do the layout, make the masks, produce the first lot, do testing, ship you the first parts. You get the parts and damn, guess what you forgot something dumb. So it's back to the fab with rev 2 of the Verilog files.

AndrewBUD

hero member

Activity: 1078

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It'll be problem after problem... They're assuming that everything will go perfectly...

Bitinvestor

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Quote from: punin on November 27, 2012, 12:20:28 PM

Bogart, no risk involved when your clients' money is used to pay for the gamble.

Exactly, Buttfly will simply declare bankruptcy if they can't get it to work before the money runs out.

Coinoisseur

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Assuming the bug was on a test wafer, how is it possible to expect large quantities of chips in hand in only 2 weeks time?

Topic: Already delays in BFL shipment plans? - page 14. (Read 49567 times)