Topic: Analysis - page 8. (Read 941237 times)

Monthly close today is huge

Safer to short on the downside of the four-year cycle.  Right now we're just coming off a time of consolidation following the bottom.  Leaving Kansas and entering the high plains of eastern Colorado, one feels the land rising and sees the Rocky Mountains in the distance.  Denver here we come, yippy-yi-yo-ki-ay!  Pikes Peak or bust!

With the stock market running so high above the fast DMAs, I wouldn't be surprised at a scary and severe pullback. BTC would naturally follow.

"Crash" is probably an exaggeration. If panic hits hard I could see the weekly CME gap ~$9,600 getting filled on a wick, but ultimately I think the $10K area will be confirmed as support.


The market has held for 5+ weeks above the yearly resistance at $10.5K. That was the first higher high since October 2019. Pretty big deal. Could it be a bull trap? Technically yes, but I wouldn't count on it and I certainly wouldn't be shorting Bitcoin right now.

Bitcoin will moon as it has done before.
Luc has the direction right, but as for the timing...  I think the corn needs to build up some momentum.  We'll see gainz this year but wait until 2021 for tha monster fomo bubble, if one comes, and crash in '22.

Thanks for posting this. Sometimes I forget this thread is actually dedicated to masterluc's analysis. We're just hanging out here
Looks quite encouraging, especially after viewing an intimidating nightmare scenario posted by the second analyst I follow here.. Frankly speaking, I currently only follow those two, and when looked together, they provide somewhat strange view.. lets call it 'balanced' view


Well, thats true... But I guess different people here mean different things saying 'shitcoins' or 'shitforks'... Wouldn't elaborate more on the topic, as "the little fella who got this thread rolling in the first place" is a prominent altcoin hater, so discussing alts might be not appropriate here.

whoa, masterluc delivers the goods.

This is so far outside most expectations ... so it could actually be right.

wanted to merit your post because it seems rational but noticed that I just cannot do it. there are tiny traces of idealism left, lines that cannot be crossed...

Here's a brand spanking new chart from the little fella who got this thread rolling in the first place all those years ago if you like that sort of thing.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/BiymtBy3-Some-short-term-thoughts/

He seems to be in a rather confident mood.



For better or worse you will make more money on the shitforks getting in now than you will on BTC in a bubbly scenario, and exiting at the right moment of course. That's not tasteful but it's almost certainly true. It's 'Bitcoin' but it's 'cheaper' and that shit never gets old for the waves of hungry newcomers. They will never die. They may fade over time but not this time.

I feel like mindrust read too much into this thread and lost the long term picture, which so far has been uniformly bullish.

O.k.  It seems that I misread you.   Sorry about that.

Personally, I understand that there are a lot of scam coins but I doubt that bitcoin gives any shits about them in terms of whether it pumps or not.

We already had our BTC correction that lasted a bit more than 2.5 years so far... and the various scam coins are along for the ride for any pump..

A lot of the scam coins were purged between 2018 and 2019.. but surely some of them are still going to be able to have some pumpenings.. and surely many of us bitcoiners are not going to be fucking around with trying to figure them out, but there are still likely to be a decent amount of snot-nosed 14 year olds making money on those scamcoins, even if some of them get burnt along the way too.

I just don't buy the thesis that the shitcoins have to die first... but I would not complain if they did.    

BSV is not the same, even if there might be some temporary pumpening of that crap scam coin and some of the other cryptos... .

You should realize that.   

guys should not be throwing around amorphous terms, such as crypto... and worse yet, if the various bcash scams such as bch and bsv trying to present themselves as if they were the same thing.. and people buying into those scams could end up getting screwed at any time.. or hoping to screw someone else with such smoke and mirrors nonsense.

Sure, I might be a little premature with this citttteeeeee post, but you gotta be feeling as if you had been a bit too bearish in mid-March, Majormax, no?  not that you had ever been too bearish, previously, right?        You can never be too bearish, right?  Ok... I am getting off topic.

Gotta get in my little digs, when I can.  

You can see that I am excited, right?  

Anyhow, I am not going to proclaim victory yet, but if we get above $13,880 in the near future (let's say less than 3 months), I am going to really start beginning to suggest a kind of feeling that 4 digits are over... even though we all can appreciate that nothing is really guaranteed in bitcoinlandia.

Furthermore, the next resistance after $13,880 seems to be about in the $17,250 arena.. and, yeah, I concede that we need to get past $13,880 before $17,250 becomes relevant... and sure.. we cannot even be sure that we are solidly above $10k, yet. I will concede that.

but I will also assert that we are not even close to 2021 or 2022 in terms of the kinds of timeline considerations that you were setting forth in your mid-March framing of the situation, Majormax.. AmiNOTrite?    

This is why Bitcoin was invented by Satoshi. Do you remember his first message on the blockchain? It was to be an asset to be hedged against our current fraudulent system.

There is nothing stopping people from using the opportunity afforded by the current economical crisis as a cover for participating in pump and dump strategies. It will be difficult if not impossible to ascertain the distinction between real regular long term investors transferring from stocks in to crypto versus those regularly investing in crypto but with a view to pump then dump therefore no graphical or statistical data can be cross-referenced.

I know y'all like pretty pictures



The weekly highs and lows are run through that quadratic on the left to render the traces.
The blue cyclic function follows a quadrennial cycle of bull and bear synchronous with halvings, the first one which occurred in 2012.

You're definitely onto something. Online brokers like Robinhood, E-Trade, and TD Ameritrade are all reporting a flood of retail investors into the stock market the past couple months. One notable demographic has been sports bettors. Dave Portnoy from Barstool Sports has turned his massive sports betting audience into a pump-and-dump army.

Barstool's Dave Portnoy leads army of new traders into stock market

Trading Sportsbooks for Brokerages, Bored Bettors Wager on Stocks



So what happens when sports come back in earnest? MLB, NFL, and so on? Analysts say these retail investors and sports bettors are big enough to move the markets. When sports come back, will they dump and leave? Will that be a bearish force in the market?

Recent rallies of bankrupt companies stocks remind me of movements in altcoin markets, with their pump'n'dumps and trading of useless assets when there is basically nothing left behind them...

It kinda looks like the crypto traders have flooded the stock markets, or maybe just the same type of people who traded crypto, are now actively trading stocks . The traces of crypto trading mentality seem to be present in mainstream financial markets ATM.

This is just an impression though...

It's hard to argue with $6 trillion being injected by the Fed and $3 trillion in fiscal stimulus by the Treasury. This whole experience taught me that these markets bow only to liquidity, fundamentals be damned.

With the House having passed another $3 trillion bill a couple weeks ago and the White House giving the nod to $2 trillion+, it's interesting to see the S&P 500 down 9% in 8 days. I wonder if we're setting up for mini version of the March crash (in which case look out below, BTC holders) with a similar rebound to come after that next stimulus bill is passed.

I don't care much about stocks being mental, but I don't like bitcoin being so correlated with them at this particular moment.

To be honest, being a techie grown in a part of the world where free markets are just non-existent, I have very limited understanding of free markets and economics in general But am trying to wrap my head around few things...
Specifically, I am trying to figure out what could happen if

1) the real economy continues to struggle (due to decreased demand for services and unnecessary goods, or just because people are scared and their spending habits change in direction of more careful planning, or for whatever other reason);

2) governments go overboard with doing everything to keep markets growing; not sure what are the methods; maybe
(a) injecting money into businesses;
(b) buying stocks;
(c) giving no-interest or even negative-interest loans;
(d) sending helicopter 'stimulus' money to regular people (basically those are no-return loans);
(e) whatever else - I am not sure what, but would appreciate if someone adds more methods to this list, so we understand what else could governments do next.

So if this (1)+(2) situation continues and gets to the point where there is a big gap between "where the free stock markets should be" and "where they are", what could happen next? I suppose reality cannot be ignored for infinitely long time. So what this could resolve into? Collapse of markets? Collapse of banks? Collapse of governments? Collapse of currencies? Nothing at all, business as usual?