Topic: Analysis - page 6. (Read 941579 times)

... yet here we are back at new ATH ... permabears always get seriously rekt on btc bullruns, they are vicious.

... masterluc has been riding them longer than most, above $30k sounds about right to me too.

He posted it right before the dump.

I'm not sure I agree with his reasoning either. I would only look to the MACD histogram for divergences, not the EMAs. Plus the fast EMA has already broken the potential bearish divergence anyway.

Bitcoin will shake the trees when it wants to, that's the bottom line. An intraday double top off $19.5K (and the first lower low on the daily chart since September) seems as good of a time as any.

From MasterLuc on TV

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gaVt2Z5L-Price-reverse-extrapolation-with-MACD/

For those who ask loud bullish predictions. I don't post great bullish charts with daring targets, as TV has a lot of this. I post side views that could be interesting. So.

This is what I meant few weeks ago when said "I can't ignore weekly MACD".

For first, there was a bullish hook.
For the second there is some heuristical deduction:

1. Bitcoin is bullish? Obviously yes. Candles are above BB.
2. Can the bullish Bitcoin have bearish divergence on weekly MACD? No way.
3. So if price reverse now, there would be bearish divergence on macd as macd local top would be lower than ATH top. Okay.
4. So can the price reverse now? No way.
5. So where MACD must reverse to fit into correct Bitcoin bullish picture? Well above macd ATH . See in PIC.

And now, extrapolate candles to match such macd to measure approximate location of next local top. It must be well above ATH . Well above $30k.

I saw similar picture when Bitcoin was on the way to brake its first historical top at $31.

We need more (bullish) charts 

My bad.

You are not coming off as very welcoming.

 

The Analysis thread welcomes Jay's navel-gazing, triumphalist logorrhoea.

Why would there be envy?

If someone keeps predicting down and getting it wrong and I am merely pointing out such a thing.  You can read envy all that you like.  It's not there.

Sure, I tend to get worried about many people failing and refusing to adequately prepare for up, and the down predictions will frequently contribute to such lack of preparations... especially when such down predictions are given more weight than they deserve, and I am not even necessarily saying that Masterluc has been attempting to attract such over reliance, but sometimes his followers will give more weight to his various ongoing down squiggly lines than they deserve (and so it can be nice to see when  down predictions do not happen, but they continue to be made).  Yes, down reliance can end up running  into a lack of UP preparations that I have mentioned.

Surely, I have explained that in several other posts that I have made (and sometimes no explanation is needed in order to poo poo squiggly lines), including explanation that I have made in other back and forth interactions that I have had with exstasie in other threads.

I noticed you're poo pooing here.

I haven't noticed any worshipers here though.

---

In my view, there is a kind of envy some people feel - when seeing people are paying more attention to someone's analysis. The need to poo poo appears.

That's how I see it, JayJuanGee. Sorry. Maybe that's not the case (I hope so), but that's the impression your posts on this thread create.

I came here to post basically the same thing.

The way I would put it, is a pullback to that channel low would be perfectly acceptable  as would be the 12k area and the MA.

That said... I also think we might breakout before too much of a pullback as well.  The way it is consolidating here now at least supports that idea.

He has not earned shit... I have seen his various contributions through the years.. and you are suggesting that he deserves some kind of higher platform than comments from other members... I don't ever recall ever having a personal interaction with him, so I may as well make fun of some of the ideas or the worshipers, no?

You guys can worship his presentations all that you like but does NOT mean that I am out-of-line in any kind of way with the contents or the direction of my post(s).. whether the latest post or other posts...

Last time I checked this thread was open to all forum members... No?... Maybe my post is directed towards worshipers rather than Masterluc himself, anyhow?  Seems to have been.


No problem.  I am offering ideas too by poo pooing the worshiping of ideas....

Hopefully, you understand the idea that sooner or later BTC prices are going to correct and if someone keeps proclaiming that they are going to correct at some point, then sooner or later that someone is going to end up being correct?  Perhaps you understand that?


I am thinking that you are coming off as a bit too sensitive in terms of how you are taking my mocking message.. maybe I a wearing on you... because I have been criticizing your down inclinations, exstasie, for quite some time, and even explaining my rationale for doing so on a fairly regular basis, so that surely would have a substantive component to it, no?.... but you roll with sensitivities and getting caught up on persons rather than ideas, and you want to take matters personally (defending Masterluc or the worshipers), that seems to be your choice, unless you cannot help yourself in terms of having to attempt to turn matters personal when they need not be?

Of all the threads on this forum, this is not the one for annoying perma bull gloating. Masterluc has earned that much. Why do you feel the need to come here just to insult him? Many of us obviously value his contributions, even if you don't.

He is just offering ideas, possibilities. Not guarantees or anything of that sort. That is the world traders exist in. I'd have thought you would understand that by now, but alas, you don't.

Completely possible, I prefer the $12k area better for a pull-back personally though.
We don't need a 35% pull-back, 25% is more than sufficient and keep bouncing off the 21 Week MA imo.

This sounds really legitimate.

If he keeps trying sooner or later he is going to be correct, and then we can agree about how much of a smartie he happens to be...

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zg0MPXUC-Triying-yet-another-trend/

Update from Masterluc: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/HNutyDX7-Short-term-resistance/


He's anticipating a sharp pullback off the weekly upper BB, down to the lower bound of his channel, which is currently in the $10.5K area and rising:

Well Masterluc's alter ego predicted it all:



https://www.the-sun.com/news/1576472/blind-mystic-baba-vanga-donald-trump-coronavirus/

... you don't even need the pejorative "conspiracy theory" angle, when the incentives are aligned and the system is open to being gamed/rigged, it will be rigged.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/how-jpms-precious-metals-trading-desk-manipulated-markets-crime-ring-within-bank

... just don't be naive. Financial markets have been a racket for a very long time and the Federal Reserve is the casino owner consortium of the biggest crooks in town.

Looks like we're still in the "blue trend" masterluc drew on his recent chart.

That is ridiculous.

I specifically said the opposite.

i said that the fundamentals underlying BTC cause BTC price movement, and the models merely attempt to describe and show. 

Do you really have an inability to appreciate what I actually said?  Or is it an "innocent" misunderstanding?


Of course, but so what?  If anything, with the passage of time, smarter money is going to continue to recognize the value proposition of BTC.. and such variety of asset bubbles - that is also attributable to long practices of irresponsible printing of cash, will end up gravitating into Bitcoin, even if it takes 20 to 50 years.. we are still going to likely witness shorter term movements into BTC.. like we are seeing now.. where we have seen historically and each 4 year fractal is likely going to allow recognition of that ongoing gravitation into BTC and surely profits for anyone who can actually see that happening in advance (by stacking sats, and because of BTC's asymmetric bet nature, such peeps will likely NOT need very much in order to profit stupendously in the coming years... 2 years, 4 years, 8 years, 12 years..- the longer the investment horizon the more likelihood that benefits will be quite noticeable in non-correlated ways).


Of course, you can see what you like.


I never said that it was not.


Because it is not true.. .even if you like to suggest that it is..., gotta look into nuance rather than saying that equities, gold, other assets, blah blah blah, went up 2x and bitcoin went up 150x..   therefore they both went up and therefore everything that went up is correlated to BTC. blah blah blah...  that is nearly pure nonsense talking.


The new paradigm has already happened.

Bitcoin is out of the tube... it has changed society irreversibly in a lot of ways....

Sure, there are likely going to continue to be more changes that come from bitcoin, but we need not wait for such changes in order to appreciate that a paradigm shift has already happened...


I was just responding to your ongoing seeming nonsense that tries to lump BTC in with all of those other asset classes and suggestion that BTC fundamentals do not matter.  Of course, there is going to be some truth in any statement, including your identification of various kinds of correlation and affects of monetary policies on BTC price movements, but you surely keep going steps too far in your assertions, from my perspective...

So we do not necessarily need to debate, but I do feel somewhat lured into showing different perspectives.. and your seemingly lack of appreciation of BTC fundamentals...

Yeah, sure, I agree that there are likely short periods of time in which BTC fundamentals get squashed by ongoing momentum, liquidity, manipulation blah blah blah.. but in the longer term, BTC fundamentals are still likely to end up coming through.. .just like they have in the past... even though there are far from any guarantees in regards to where things might be going.. but with any investment, those who are investing are going to bet on various possible outcomes and perhaps diversify somewhat in order to hedge various bets. and try to keep some of his/her own reasonable amounts of liquidity in order to get through tougher periods of uncertainties and even when prices of the investments might move in directions for longer and to greater extremes that are contrary to his/her expectations.


No need to take it personally.  I have no personal beef against you.

I am attacking your ideas that likely lead people to fail/refuse to adequately prepare themselves for up, wait  for down (or bet on down), and sell too soon.  I am not necessarily proclaiming that you are personally doing that, but the ideas that you spout out can justify people taking wrong actions in regards to their bitcoin holdings (or even meaningfully and adequately establishing bitcoin holdings).


I have been reading your statements differently.. .especially the ongoing assertions of correlation nonsense.


That's good.


I doubt that I am failing/refusing to recognize such.


That is not what happened.

Bitcoin was more of a free market, and had more of a free market reaction... of course, like you said they are all connected, but various parts are still going to perform differently based on what kinds of actions are taken or NOT taken. 

I am trying to figure out the what is... rather than the what if..

So many of us could both monday morning quarter back and also say the so many ways that they screwed up or that they are continuing to screw up.. and still at the same time, there continues to be a lot that we might not even know.. so probably, it is way better to try to figure out the what is rather than the what if..  even if sometimes some of the details of whether U travel restrictions are implemented, S bank is saved, or T politician embezzled money or U virus was treated inadequately or V ballots were not counted (or double counted)... or W bombs were dropped on X nation, or Y taxes and Z embargos were implemented...   

Surely, some of these kinds of details can have short-term effects in one direction or another and even end up having rippling long term effects on a variety of aspects of society whether we are talking about property, businesses, individual rights, and I am not even suggesting that they should not be accounted for - even while at the same time we have king daddy coming into the space like a honey badger and not giving any shits - even though in the short term, king daddy might appear as if it is similar to all of these other things when those who study the space and understand it are going to profit from being able to recognize and appreciate the various ways in which king daddy is distinguishable and has its own kind of contribution that sometimes might seem to go with the flow, but if you zoom out, the correlation is not as apparent as it had seemed..