Topic: Analysis - page 4. (Read 941596 times)

imagine it is 2020, bitcoin is at $28k and folks on bitcointalk are still doing the "altseasssssssonnnnn!!!!" shitcoinery thing. why dont you go to the stinking alt section of this forum? why is this disgrace showing up in every bitcoin thread?   

I'm HODLing 100% Bitcoin, but my candidates are, Litecoin and shall I say it? It might be Bitcoin Cash. Because with Ripple losing its status as No. 3 in market cap, I believe Jihan those two coins will surge to take it, courtesy of Jihan Wu and Barry Silbert.

There's a niche for Litecoin; it's pretty entrenched. It also tends to be a painful hold however, constantly slow bleeding before eventual and short-lived but extremely strong gains.

As far as large cap coins go, I prefer ones that offer use cases Bitcoin doesn't, and especially ones that have (or will have) incentives for accumulation baked in. Ethereum ticks both boxes. DeFi, fundraising, hybrid POS......the incentives are just massive. ETH is going sky high when the hype cycle kicks back in.

They do, but what?
candidates:
DOT/KSM-likely
ADA-possible
Dark horses: ALGO (too many coins?), Blockstack (STX), Hedera (HBAR, also too many tokens), Theta (I have no idea why it is rampaging up)

Defi (AAVE, COMP, YFI, UNI, SNX)-one or more of those.
YFI looks interesting from the usage perspective, but too "rich" per unit. It's not a bitcoin, lol.
the rest of defi-where is the value in governance tokens?

Name your candidates...just for luls.

Exactly. For me its a rule of thumb, when looking at Masterluc's charts. If its a long-term chart showing big picture, it's definitely worth careful consideration. If its short-term one, it most possibly is going to be proven wrong in a short time. Too many of his longterm predictions went right, so one cannot just ignore that fact. And too many of his short-term charts turned to be.. just ideas he was playing with. In any case, regardless of analyst, any chart is showing potentials, basically those are just mental experiments to entertain ourselves, while waiting for the next market move

Or be an early adopter in the "Silver of Bitcoin's Gold", Litecoin? It has never gotten out of top 10 in market cap, and I believe GrayScale was buying more than 100,000 coins. They'll be seeking to be "early adopters" in many other markets. Should we follow the "smart money"?


What he shares should be taken as sentiments, not financial advice of what price to buy, and when to sell.

These ones aren't that old, and were pretty amazing:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/JSP3KDmy-New-long-term-prediction-as-I-see-it-now/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/iNSP9waV-Historical-IV-almost-completed/

He just needs to stick to the big picture. Primary waves, etc. Like with all analysts, zooming in too much brings inaccuracy.

I'm sure he just views these potential reversal zones (channel tops and so on) as ideas and possibilities anyway, not predictions per se.

MasterLuc was once the crown prince of bitcoin charts. But over the years he has wandered astray. I am not sure he understands the fundamentals that are at play in 2020.

Masteluc is generating those channels with enviable persistence

It reminds me of this post from JayJuanGee: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.55537511... "If he keeps trying sooner or later he is going to be correct"
But in fact, we cannot apply the theory of a "broken clock" here, because unlike broken clock, Masterluc is changing his statements, so there is no guarantee he will be correct sooner or later...

"new" post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/cOgzT7cl-Lets-test-yet-another-price-channel/

The alt action as I see it could unfold like this... Particularly in the wake of the XRP led altpocylypse.

There are two kinds of big money coming in. 

1.  The Michael Saylor "Bitcoin is the killer network" sort of maximalist inflow.  And there will be a lot of this.  Because those level of investors understand how important network effect is, and they are also most likely fairly resistant to scam narratives, unlike retail.

2.  The due diligence "what is the next bitcoin?" inflow.  But hopefully it is actually somewhat more sophisticated than that.  For example Fidelity seems to be getting Bitcoin from their analysts to their CEO.  But do you really think that company is not looking at other projects and pinpointing places where there could be an asymmetrical bet sort of like Bitcoin circa 2014.  I think it is possible this is driven by misunderstanding and ignorance as well as by really solid analysis.  In other words, I feel like Raoul Pal's recent ETH praise is not really based on deep analysis.  I think he is sort of just looking at it on the surface and thinking it will be the smart contract platform without regard to its security, ability to remain decentralized, etc.  Whereas someone else might notice a crypto project that honestly does something Bitcoin does not do, and stays out of the way of Bitcoin's sweet spot.  I can think of a couple.  And I could see money going into those.

SO... I think it is very likely we see CERTAIN altcoins continue to appreciate in value while possibly even the majority tank.

But I also kind of hope for that... so I am biased.

It's all about sector rotation: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/020305.asp


In crypto markets, this dynamic usually manifests in the following way:

• BTC rallying causes an exit from altcoins as traders chase BTCUSD gains
• When BTC consolidates and goes sideways, traders return to altcoins in search of speculative gains

During exponential growth cycles like 2013 and 2017, we saw money flow back and forth between the two markets, over and over. BTC up, altcoins stagnate. BTC stagnates, altcoins up. They switch off rallying until the latest stage of the bubble, when basically anything currently listed on a crypto exchange can and will be pumped in a mad speculative frenzy. That's the blow-off top phase.

BTCUSD doubled in the last two months, so it's no surprise the market is piled into BTC rather than altcoins. Given that corrections are inevitable, and that I'm already sold on another bubble cycle like 2017, I think money flowing into altcoins is inevitable too.

It all boils down to greed. In a greedy and speculative market, traders increasingly seek out riskier and higher return instruments.

Exactly. In each major bull run, the big money was made in ... altcoins.

But in this cycle, I have yet to see a meaningful start of a bull run in the alt market. Will it be different this time (I suspect not; big boys are accumulating as we speak)?

My theory is that will happen during the "laggard" phase.



When the majority is entering, it's more likely to be the final speculative bubble.


I don't care whether it's a shitcoin. I care about where the market is going.

Bitcoin maximalists make the fundamental mistake of forgoing profits (BTC profits) in favor of talking shit from on their high horse. The market makes clear time and time again that it does not value decentralization nearly as much as you do. It's not like all money must flow to the one true decentralized coin.

Ethereum aside, there is also the possibility (however slight) that alternatives to POW eventually become viable. That could be a game changer.


It's never too late........until the "laggard" phase. As long as the market still views Bitcoin as speculative, then investors are going to keep chasing after "the next Bitcoin."


None yet. A couple people I respect think it's going places, but I never took the time to look into it.

It might also be the same time Bitcoin has "found" it's true price, volatility will reduce, and stabilize?


It's a shitcoin in my opinion. For how long Vitalik Buterin can keep his database running, it will not be forever.


I know some Bitcoiners respect Monero, but you said it, their own onchain privacy will be their own problem. Governments don't like it, their developers should be like Satoshi and never reveal their identities.

Chia, it's too late, before 2017 was the right time to challenge to be a "better Bitcoin".

Your opinion on Decred?

When the majority enters the market, it means Bitcoin's era as a highly speculative asset is over. By that point, I think the door will be closing on this era where shitcoins can endlessly be pumped based on pure speculation and greed. Which coins survive to that point......it's impossible to say. Some probably haven't been launched yet.

The only altcoin I'm confident will stand the test of time (even if it can't remain truly decentralized) is Ethereum. It's too entrenched to disappear. I'm also partial to Monero (far more than any other privacy coin) but I wonder how damaging soft and hard bans by governments and exchanges will affect its organic network effect and value. As for unlaunched coins, Chia looks interesting to me but it's way too early to make any big bets on long term viability.

Shitcoins are such that the only way to play it in the micro/low cap or pre-launch phase is to make lots of bets and expect that most won't come in. The ones that pay off will pay off massively. But you can't afford to leave yourself very exposed to any one project because chances are it's going nowhere. In that case you're just hoping to sell into an exit pump, which can take long periods of bagholding. And sometimes your bags will be de-listed from exchanges in the meantime (during bear markets) so you need to hedge against those worst case scenarios by spreading the risk around and only choosing coins that have a high propensity for network effect and hype.

Off-topic, but once the early majority enters the market, then the late majority, what other cryptocurrencies should be "bought and HODLed" with our Bitcoins to be back to be the "early adopters"? Asking for a friend.

I think we cross the 20k line again.  I'd rather do it sooner than later.

7 Hours ago from the time of this post:



And it has broken to the upside, if only a little.

Logarithmic vs. linear is not the appropriate question. The question is whether you can extrapolate a line of best fit (or log regression) into the future and expect it to hold. My contention is that you can't, not for very long. In markets, these patterns become too obvious and then investors front run them.

There is no reason to assume that just because BTC's growth in 2010 was so rapid that its future growth must be limited to a logarithmic regression based on that growth rate. There is no logic to that at all.

People just see trends and get attached to them. But all trends eventually end.