Topic: Analysis - page 195. (Read 941582 times)
China leads, not Bitstamp. If the pandas decide to crash and burn, it will be so. Decision should be clear within 2 - 3 days.
I don't know luc, I don't think we're out of the woods yet. I see resistance due to the 50 day MA... lower still looks more likely to me than $300+
"Good short oportunity in this range with SL in the 233-237 area and target in the low 100s"
Failed.
another opportunity - long target 290 with s/l 220. risk/reward 1:3
Looks broken. Escape from bear jail trendline. green ma200 resistance.
Yet still in longterm downtrend (not actually accurate lines due to sierra bugs)
Yet still in longterm downtrend (not actually accurate lines due to sierra bugs)
This scenario could be confirmed (or not) within the next week.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/AHFOHXcM-Updated-Longterm-Downtrend-Cycles/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/AHFOHXcM-Updated-Longterm-Downtrend-Cycles/
"Good short oportunity in this range with SL in the 233-237 area and target in the low 100s"
Failed.
Your trendline should really be drawn on a logarithmic scale... that, coupled with the swing high around $300 and 200-dma, a close above $305 on the daily should mark the end of the downtrend if there is follow-through.
Log long term downtrend (330-350) is next target on breaking this one. However no. Daily Sma200 is next (290).
Sma200 and log downtrend form a significant resistance levels. Market will need a lot of momentum and time to break them I suppose.
I turned a bit optimistic because of:
1. Daily BB collapsed suggesting start of significant short term move.
2. Price went to its positive territory.
3. Daily adx also collapsed pointing to start of something point.
4. Weekly Bb collapses suggesting start of significant midterm move. Yet price is still in negative zone.
5. Daily and weekly macd show some sort of bullish hook last days.
So both short and mid term indicators shows some development in final stage, while macd hints it may be bullish. And then price tries to break not a small downtrend line. Another hint? Let's see.
In a bullish scenario there are a lot of resistances in 250-350 area:
* daily sma200
* weekly sma 10,20
* weekly upper bb
* long term log downtrend line
And I recognize them as hard. First and last are most hard. Trend may easily reverse on them.
So here is my small brainstorm on this situation.
much appreciated as always
Your trendline should really be drawn on a logarithmic scale... that, coupled with the swing high around $300 and 200-dma, a close above $305 on the daily should mark the end of the downtrend if there is follow-through.
Log long term downtrend (330-350) is next target on breaking this one. However no. Daily Sma200 is next (290).
Sma200 and log downtrend form a significant resistance levels. Market will need a lot of momentum and time to break them I suppose.
I turned a bit optimistic because of:
1. Daily BB collapsed suggesting start of significant short term move.
2. Price went to its positive territory.
3. Daily adx also collapsed pointing to start of something point.
4. Weekly Bb collapses suggesting start of significant midterm move. Yet price is still in negative zone.
5. Daily and weekly macd show some sort of bullish hook last days.
So both short and mid term indicators shows some development in final stage, while macd hints it may be bullish. And then price tries to break not a small downtrend line. Another hint? Let's see.
In a bullish scenario there are a lot of resistances in 250-350 area:
* daily sma200
* weekly sma 10,20
* weekly upper bb
* long term log downtrend line
And I recognize them as hard. First and last are most hard. Trend may easily reverse on them.
So here is my small brainstorm on this situation.
Your trendline should really be drawn on a logarithmic scale... that, coupled with the swing high around $300 and 200-dma, a close above $305 on the daily should mark the end of the downtrend if there is follow-through.
When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?
I look for a completed weekly bar above the upper trendline (open, high, low, close) to confirm. That pattern is more or less on a weekly timeframe but you could also use a 3-day I suppose.
I have to show you a very dangerous channel with bottom now around $30 and falling
This downtrend is going to break
When and how this break could be confirmed as effective break? Re-test the downtrend line after breaking through it?
DXY looks corrective, will see how low it goes. Everything else going up, commodities reacting too. Stockpile btc while it's still lagging 
Yeah, gold reacted well, from 2105 to 1180
DXY looks corrective, will see how low it goes. Everything else going up, commodities reacting too. Stockpile btc while it's still lagging
Well... At least we can relax a bit and get all our BTC away from the exchanges, that's for sure.
If we break 240$ today with nice volume...
Yea uptrend!
Yup. All bitcoins are back in my wallets now.
I have to show you a very dangerous channel with bottom now around $30 and falling
This downtrend is going to break
I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.
Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.
Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.
There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.
When you talk about manipulation.
Where do you get your stats or insights instead of reddit. Cause sometimes its too late to take advantage. Is there a better source you guys use outside from reddit, cause coindesk is always debatable.
I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.
Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.
Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.
There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.
Yet, people still go out and buy the coin due to fear of missing out.
Thats a constant cycle, since most believe the last 6 years since its launch will have a better year for each prior. But all the manipulation is out of anyones control, instead I`d worry about how to hedge my risk.
hedging risk is so 2013.
If anything, 2015 is about getting risky.
I am suspecting a long stabilization periode as a next move unsatisfying bears as well as bulls.
Indeed. The herd is right until they aren't.
Stabilization for another few months/ maybe even years lets people know that this is the floor and the psychology around bitcoin being "expensive" will gradually change. When that does... we go up again.
There's too much manipulation in Bitcoin. Those people we saw on BTC-E 2 days back won't let it stabilize, unless by that you mean constant trading in the 200-300 range.
Yet, people still go out and buy the coin due to fear of missing out.
Thats a constant cycle, since most believe the last 6 years since its launch will have a better year for each prior. But all the manipulation is out of anyones control, instead I`d worry about how to hedge my risk.
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