Since we seem to be playing 'Predict the mid term outlook', here's my contest entry... roadmap of the next month(s), roughly along the daily MA20/50/200.
Don't get too hung up about the exact extension of the SMAs I drew in, they're naturally imprecise, and just serve to illustrate the big picture of support and resistances.
Similar for the time frame. I put the "SMA200 decision point" probably too far into the future. More likely actually we'll get there towards the end of 2014/January 2015 than March 2015 where it's in my graph - I just needed the space to draw in the trend outlines I see as possible, maybe likely.
What's the take home message I'm trying to describe here?
1) Mainly based on volume during the $275 capitulation, and volume/price action since then, I expect to see a test of SMA200 before making a new low. In other words: (a) we're going up significantly before (b) we're going down significantly. My odds for (a) vs (b): ~ 2:1.
2) There are two ways to get to SMA200: (a) the slow, painful route (full of retests of the slower MA50), and (b) the faster one, where we're (mainly) staying above MA20. My odds for (a) vs. (b): ~ 3:2.
3) Once we get to SMA200, two ways to decide if we break into a "real" rally: (a) with a substantial price drop, likely aiming for MA50 again, or (b) without it. Odds (a) vs. (b): (depends on the way we get there, but under my current assumptions): ~ 2:1
4) We'll break and stay above MA200 (a), or we're falling back below (b) (possibly towards a new, sub 275 low). Odds: No idea right now. Heavily depends on volume/price action on the way there, and once we get there.
tl;dr I expect MA200 test, mid term, but it'll be a rocky road to get there.
