Topic: Analysis - page 240. (Read 941582 times)
will fall to 266 ?
longterm bear 
this guy just posted something in his Elliot Waves Analysis thread, worth seeing
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8976473
unfortunately he did not provide much commentary, but in the past he has been very good
"An update to the Elliot Wave count I have posted previously. As long as the previous low for wave ii-(1)-3 at around 390 holds then this count looks good. "
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8976473
unfortunately he did not provide much commentary, but in the past he has been very good
"An update to the Elliot Wave count I have posted previously. As long as the previous low for wave ii-(1)-3 at around 390 holds then this count looks good. "
Transalation: If it doesn't go below 390 over the next few days we are good?
The doom predictions has reached ultimate proportions here. From my Handwaving Analysis, that usually the time it turns. Guessing even if it does well now the long term bear market prediction is still active?
this guy just posted something in his Elliot Waves Analysis thread, worth seeing
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8976473
unfortunately he did not provide much commentary, but in the past he has been very good
"An update to the Elliot Wave count I have posted previously. As long as the previous low for wave ii-(1)-3 at around 390 holds then this count looks good. "
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8976473
unfortunately he did not provide much commentary, but in the past he has been very good
"An update to the Elliot Wave count I have posted previously. As long as the previous low for wave ii-(1)-3 at around 390 holds then this count looks good. "
"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.
The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.
The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.
What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.
I hear you on the code. But I also mean the price. They are limited in the techniques that they can use to manipulate the price compared with traditional financial assets. For example, they can't exactly print Bitcoins.
I think you're approaching this from the wrong angle.
You're right, they can't print bitcoin. However, the supply rate of Bitcoin has little influence over price movements. Buying and selling is the main driver of pricing, and buying and selling is driven by perception. So if the perception of high-risk assets is slowly turning negative, it will drive prices lower for bitcoin.
My argument is that the Fed's decisions on USD supply heavily influences the perception of those who buy/sell. If the Fed says they're going to start reigning in on inflation, market makers will take notice and begin to sell their high-risk investments. That's because those high-risk investments only did well DUE to that inflation.
I see where you're coming from. But I don't know if we can really be certain that the perception of the Fed's influence on supply is actually moving the market the way that they want us to believe. For example, Silver smackdowns seem to always take place during these Open Market meetings, yet we know that these price declines due to orchestrated paper selloffs are purely timed to coincide with them for manipulation purposes. Why would it not be different in any other market where the Fed controls supply? This is a serious question.
I think your description is just another way of looking at the same thing. While I agree that if enough people perceive something, price will go in the associated direction. However, if demand begins to exceeds available supply, price goes up by default. Isn't this simply because peoples perception changed accordingly with the dwindling supply and increase in demand?
Would you agree that if global equity prices dropped 30%, Bitcoin prices would also be negatively effected? Or do you think Bitcoin is impervious to global capital flows?
"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.
The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.
The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.
What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.
I hear you on the code. But I also mean the price. They are limited in the techniques that they can use to manipulate the price compared with traditional financial assets. For example, they can't exactly print Bitcoins.
I think you're approaching this from the wrong angle.
You're right, they can't print bitcoin. However, the supply rate of Bitcoin has little influence over price movements. Buying and selling is the main driver of pricing, and buying and selling is driven by perception. So if the perception of high-risk assets is slowly turning negative, it will drive prices lower for bitcoin.
My argument is that the Fed's decisions on USD supply heavily influences the perception of those who buy/sell. If the Fed says they're going to start reigning in on inflation, market makers will take notice and begin to sell their high-risk investments. That's because those high-risk investments only did well DUE to that inflation.
I see where you're coming from. But I don't know if we can really be certain that the perception of the Fed's influence on supply is actually moving the market the way that they want us to believe. For example, Silver smackdowns seem to always take place during these Open Market meetings, yet we know that these price declines due to orchestrated paper selloffs are purely timed to coincide with them for manipulation purposes. Why would it not be different in any other market where the Fed controls supply? This is a serious question.
I think your description is just another way of looking at the same thing. While I agree that if enough people perceive something, price will go in the associated direction. However, if demand begins to exceeds available supply, price goes up by default. Isn't this simply because peoples perception changed accordingly with the dwindling supply and increase in demand?
With the silver market this is not so since completely fake prices are thrown into our faces based on paper trades.
So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.
That is some good news at least.
While I almost burried the price, daily macd made a bullish divergence (rsi also) . So I said don't hurry to bury =)
And potentially hidden weekly div (if some weekly reversal occurs here).
So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.
I am also a bit puzzled by this div as I feel the bottom is far from in yet. Especially since it's on daily, which intuitively should signal at least a mid-long term trend reversal like in April this year.And potentially hidden weekly div (if some weekly reversal occurs here).
So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.
However, I see that in 2011 it took 4(!) concurrent daily bull divs before the bear market was broken.
Who knows, maybe there is hope for more falling knives still
Beautiful discovery. Wish I had found it
"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.
The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.
The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.
What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.
I hear you on the code. But I also mean the price. They are limited in the techniques that they can use to manipulate the price compared with traditional financial assets. For example, they can't exactly print Bitcoins.
I think you're approaching this from the wrong angle.
You're right, they can't print bitcoin. However, the supply rate of Bitcoin has little influence over price movements. Buying and selling is the main driver of pricing, and buying and selling is driven by perception. So if the perception of high-risk assets is slowly turning negative, it will drive prices lower for bitcoin.
My argument is that the Fed's decisions on USD supply heavily influences the perception of those who buy/sell. If the Fed says they're going to start reigning in on inflation, market makers will take notice and begin to sell their high-risk investments. That's because those high-risk investments only did well DUE to that inflation.
Why people(market makers) have perception that bitcoin is high-risk investments. Can/Will this be changed ?
It is very much less high-risk investment than what it was when we were at $10.
"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.
The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.
The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.
What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.
I hear you on the code. But I also mean the price. They are limited in the techniques that they can use to manipulate the price compared with traditional financial assets. For example, they can't exactly print Bitcoins.
I think you're approaching this from the wrong angle.
You're right, they can't print bitcoin. However, the supply rate of Bitcoin has little influence over price movements. Buying and selling is the main driver of pricing, and buying and selling is driven by perception. So if the perception of high-risk assets is slowly turning negative, it will drive prices lower for bitcoin.
My argument is that the Fed's decisions on USD supply heavily influences the perception of those who buy/sell. If the Fed says they're going to start reigning in on inflation, market makers will take notice and begin to sell their high-risk investments. That's because those high-risk investments only did well DUE to that inflation.
Why people(market makers) have perception that bitcoin is high-risk investments. Can/Will this be changed ?
"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.
The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.
The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.
What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.
I hear you on the code. But I also mean the price. They are limited in the techniques that they can use to manipulate the price compared with traditional financial assets. For example, they can't exactly print Bitcoins.
I think you're approaching this from the wrong angle.
You're right, they can't print bitcoin. However, the supply rate of Bitcoin has little influence over price movements. Buying and selling is the main driver of pricing, and buying and selling is driven by perception. So if the perception of high-risk assets is slowly turning negative, it will drive prices lower for bitcoin.
My argument is that the Fed's decisions on USD supply heavily influences the perception of those who buy/sell. If the Fed says they're going to start reigning in on inflation, market makers will take notice and begin to sell their high-risk investments. That's because those high-risk investments only did well DUE to that inflation.
"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.
The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.
The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.
What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.
I hear you on the code. But I also mean the price. They are limited in the techniques that they can use to manipulate the price compared with traditional financial assets. For example, they can't exactly print Bitcoins.
...
I am also a bit puzzled by this div as I feel the bottom is far from in yet. Especially since it's on daily, which intuitively should signal at least a mid-long term trend reversal like in April this year.
However, I see that in 2011 it took 4(!) concurrent daily bull divs before the bear market was broken.
Who knows, maybe there is hope for more falling knives still
I am also a bit puzzled by this div as I feel the bottom is far from in yet. Especially since it's on daily, which intuitively should signal at least a mid-long term trend reversal like in April this year.
However, I see that in 2011 it took 4(!) concurrent daily bull divs before the bear market was broken.
Who knows, maybe there is hope for more falling knives still
I hope this bear market won't further unfold like 2011, not only because the price might fall below 200$, but also because it could last another 5 - 6 months, and I'm bored of it.
"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
Key word I think is "eventually"... but not yet IMO.
The price of Bitcoin can be influenced by the Fed.
The code (monetary policy / technology) is not so easily influenced.
What you're referring to I think is the code. What I'm referring to is the price.
While I almost burried the price, daily macd made a bullish divergence (rsi also) . So I said don't hurry to bury =)
And potentially hidden weekly div (if some weekly reversal occurs here).
So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.
I am also a bit puzzled by this div as I feel the bottom is far from in yet. Especially since it's on daily, which intuitively should signal at least a mid-long term trend reversal like in April this year.And potentially hidden weekly div (if some weekly reversal occurs here).
So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.
However, I see that in 2011 it took 4(!) concurrent daily bull divs before the bear market was broken.
Who knows, maybe there is hope for more falling knives still
Off the support, I suspect we'll trend slowly lower within the .5 bounds for a few weeks before dropping further into the lower bounds...
Royal Rainbow!
"The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin."
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
They can't control Bitcoin in the same way that they can traditional markets. Their manipulation techniques are much more limited. It is for this reason, and precisely because of their "tentacles that influence every investment" that the masses will eventually flock to Bitcoin. Why stay aboard a sinking titanic when you can hop on a rocket that has had over a hundred thousand percent gains in 5 years?
Should see some support here...
$378.78 (price) x 13.28 million (total BTC in circulation) = $5.03 billion mkt cap - Support at round numbers
$378.78 (price) x 13.28 million (total BTC in circulation) = $5.03 billion mkt cap - Support at round numbers
Looks like we saw that support hold out pretty well... Let's see if that resistance at $453 is enough to suppress the price in bound...
4 HOUR CHART...
I'm still very bearish on Bitcoin long term. The Fed is on course to make high-risk investments look relatively unattractive with these looming rate increases. Take a look at the charts for DDD for example... a 3D Printing company worth $5 billion (like BTC) that follows a very similar investment/trading pattern as bitcoin. It lost 50% since it's Dec/Jan high (like BTC) -- same time Fed announced it would begin tapering. Also, all of these high-risk investments are on the cusp of breaking significantly lower, and timed nicely with the end of QE in October/November...
The Fed's control over money is very strong and permeates throughout the entire financial world, with tentacles that influence every investment... including our dear bitcoin.
While I almost burried the price, daily macd made a bullish divergence (rsi also) . So I said don't hurry to bury =)
And potentially hidden weekly div (if some weekly reversal occurs here).
So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.
And potentially hidden weekly div (if some weekly reversal occurs here).
So bull/bear is 50/50 for me now.
Quick bit of searching and i think I know what he means.. and of course, i also think he is right.
It will go down, but it's not in a hurry.. more to the upside for now before it does actually go down.
1st para here kinda gives the game away.. http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/01/24/Forex-Don-t-Rush-to-Bury-The-U.S.-Dollar.aspx#axzz3EF9GsIFM
It will go down, but it's not in a hurry.. more to the upside for now before it does actually go down.
1st para here kinda gives the game away.. http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/01/24/Forex-Don-t-Rush-to-Bury-The-U.S.-Dollar.aspx#axzz3EF9GsIFM
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