Analysis - page 242. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Wary

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on September 22, 2014, 06:45:56 PM

Quote from: Wary on September 22, 2014, 06:34:11 PM

There is nothing special about BTC closing price, since BTC trades 24h. It's just price at random time.

But even price at random time going below 1w BB is sad. Doest it mean incoming 20x rally down? IMO, it doesn't.

We had 10x/year uptrend with 8-month bubbles on top of it. Because of the uptrend price was above EMA and at beginning of bubbles it crossed higher BB.
Now [IMO] we have (slight) downtrend with dumped bubbles on top of it. Because of the downtrend price is below EMA and between bubbles it crosses lower BB. Bad, but not end-of-the world. Next bubble is on schedule. Maybe dumped one (we had 2 dumped bubbles in a row in 2011-12), maybe on top of continuing downtrend. But still a bubble.

Except it's not a random time. It's 00:00 UTC EVERY time. Sure it's an arbitrary timezone, but as long as there is a standard that everyone uses, it is consistent and gives you the information needed between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59 every day, every week, always. The significance is that over the course of 7 days (equally spaced) we had enough selling to threaten the lower BB. No it doesn't mean 20x down if broken, but it does strengthen the bear market, and while we are held down by it, we could see very deep selling.

It didn't happen yet. It may not, but there is a very good possibility that it will. So, for now, the Bitcoin depression has been held off. This could turn into a nice bounce here, but there is still time for it to happen next week, or the week after that...

I agree, it is exact time, but it's random in other sense. In stock trade closing time does matter because it's followed by non-trading period and during that period anything affecting the price can happen but you won't be able to react. So, to reduce risk exposure, daytraders try to close their positions by that time. That's why the closing time matters. It fixes results of the day and expected changes of the night. But in BTC trade nothing special happens at 23:59:59, there is no reasons to close your positions by that time. It that sense this time is random and as such carries less significance than stock trading one.

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Wary on September 22, 2014, 06:34:11 PM

There is nothing special about BTC closing price, since BTC trades 24h. It's just price at random time.

But even price at random time going below 1w BB is sad. Doest it mean incoming 20x rally down? IMO, it doesn't.

We had 10x/year uptrend with 8-month bubbles on top of it. Because of the uptrend price was above EMA and at beginning of bubbles it crossed higher BB.
Now [IMO] we have (slight) downtrend with dumped bubbles on top of it. Because of the downtrend price is below EMA and between bubbles it crosses lower BB. Bad, but not end-of-the world. Next bubble is on schedule. Maybe dumped one (we had 2 dumped bubbles in a row in 2011-12), maybe on top of continuing downtrend. But still a bubble.

Except it's not a random time. It's 00:00 UTC EVERY time. Sure it's an arbitrary timezone, but as long as there is a standard that everyone uses, it is consistent and gives you the information needed between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59 every day, every week, always. The significance is that over the course of 7 days (equally spaced) we had enough selling to threaten the lower BB. No it doesn't mean 20x down if broken, but it does strengthen the bear market, and while we are held down by it, we could see very deep selling.

It didn't happen yet. It may not, but there is a very good possibility that it will. So, for now, the Bitcoin depression has been held off. This could turn into a nice bounce here, but there is still time for it to happen next week, or the week after that...

Wary

hero member

Activity: 798

Merit: 1000

Who's there?

There is nothing special about BTC closing price, since BTC trades 24h. It's just price at random time.

But even price at random time going below 1w BB is sad. Doest it mean incoming 20x rally down? IMO, it doesn't.

We had 10x/year uptrend with 8-month bubbles on top of it. Because of the uptrend price was above EMA and therefore at beginning of bubbles it crossed higher BB.
Now [IMO] we have (slight) downtrend with dumped bubbles on top of it. Because of the downtrend price is below EMA and therefore between bubbles it crosses lower BB. Bad, but not end-of-the world. Next bubble is on schedule. Maybe dumped one (we had 2 dumped bubbles in a row in 2011-12), maybe on top of continuing downtrend. But still a bubble.

RyNinDaCleM

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: Pruden on September 22, 2014, 06:15:08 PM

Why are so many of you speaking of it as if it had happened? The price stayed just above lower BB.

So far...

Pruden

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Spanish Bitcoin trader

Why are so many of you speaking of it as if it had happened? The price stayed just above lower BB.

oda.krell

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What's not to understand? Close below weekly lower BB = bad, with no precedent in trading history.

Or are you saying it's a bullish sign? :D

masterluc

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Bah, nobody understands me =) It is so habitually, so I'm bored

sumantso

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Quote from: masterluc on September 22, 2014, 06:08:36 AM

Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.

I take it means that your bloodbath prediction is still active.

Quote from: oda.krell on September 19, 2014, 09:55:01 AM

Quote from: sumantso on September 19, 2014, 08:51:53 AM

$320? Ouch!

Whats the timescale you think it needs to unfold?

Probably only has a chance if downwards momentum is keeping up, so over the next few days, I suppose.

But I'm kind of fishing in the dark here, that's why I'm asking the master Cheesy

Seems it has unfolded Sad

myself

legendary

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chaos is fun...…damental :)

Quote from: masterluc on September 22, 2014, 06:08:36 AM

Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.

is about time Tongue

if u were in WA chat 2 months ago then u could save some time

Tzupy

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My point is that historical patterns shouldn't be measured with the same metric.

masterluc

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I searched for historical patterns. I thought if price closes above +1 w/bb then it means parabolic rise - 4 examples in history.

And if opposite - it supposed to be a parabolic fall. And no examples in history...

Tzupy

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Quote from: masterluc on September 22, 2014, 06:08:36 AM

Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.

That's not as bearish as it looks, because the market movements take so much longer now than in late June - early July 2013.
If you look at the daily charts for that period, price being just below the BB was very common towards the bottom.

JimNastics

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Quote from: masterluc on September 22, 2014, 06:08:36 AM

Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.

Really wish it had closed firmly below the weekly BB last night, would have been really interesting to see what kind of carnage unfolded (if any). As it was, I think it just about clung on.

devphp

sr. member

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Quote from: masterluc on September 22, 2014, 06:08:36 AM

Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.

Don't be so cryptic, speak your mind.

masterluc

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Just realized that bitcoin price has never closed below weekly lower bb in history. More than, price never hit lower-equal than -1 deviation on weekly timescale.

plopper50

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How much lower do you predict?

thefiniteidea

hero member

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"In Us We Trust"

Off the support, I suspect we'll trend slowly lower within the .5 bounds for a few weeks before dropping further into the lower bounds...

molecular

donator

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Quote from: Bagatell on September 19, 2014, 08:20:35 AM

Quote from: area3121 on September 19, 2014, 08:17:09 AM

the best thing to do is

Sell coins NOW and Get a real job

This is surely the dumbest advice I have seen on this forum. Welcome to ignore.

Why ignore people with different opinions?

I usually just ignore people with no arguments when asked.

I agree, though... it's very bad advice. Both parts of it, really.

As Amir says: "We have all this incredible technology and yet people work longer hours for less pay in shitty jobs. There's something wrong here."

About the selling Bitcoin part: don't be ridiculous, as Risto argued, it's rational to hold even if it's just a 15% chance of another ten-bagger waiting for us.

masterluc

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