Topic: Analysis - page 249. (Read 941596 times)
I agree with poster above.I think we will see a slow consolidation for the rest of the year towards ATH.
I see some bullish development on indicators with probability about 30% of reversal to $580-$620 zone in of 1-3 weeks.
More details on confirmation.
I am very cautious with this assertion.
More details on confirmation.
I am very cautious with this assertion.
Bitcoin is on one step from long dramatic selloff imho.
Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.
Global stocks are about to crash. This monopoly game is almost over and all money and property will be returned back to the box.
Doom and gloom, baby. Doom and gloom.
The problem with predictions like that is they're almost impossible to falsify... "dramatic selloff" implies a real crash. A new capitulation low. Say, going back to $300, maybe even lower.
Or maybe not. Let's say price is going down another leg, hitting $500, maybe even high $400s. The prediction will "sound" right as well afterwards, or at least some will claim it does (while I would hardly call it "dramatic").
Same for the stock markets. "About to crash", or "entering a longer bear market"? The two are not the same, but a vague enough statement can afterwards be claimed to have "predicted" it.
Good kings all around. Luc has been prescient several times before and we should give him props for that.
In addition, it doesn't take a rocker scientist to suggest stocks are way overbought. And it's entirely possible that if the stock market goes down I a big way that bitcoin could too - although there is no real historical precedent got this.
However, we also should consider, reading over Lucs most recent posts, that there is a certain amount of regional stress he is currently over involving where he resides. This may be causing him to have a less than well rounded and objective view of the current world financial markets.
It seems like doom and bloomers have been around forever and they, for several reasons, will always be.
These are my thoughts also about the case of lucs recent post. But I disagree on one thing, It's rocket scientist, not rocker.
Have to take back this nonsense, sry master, you nailed it.
btce 
And probably most bearish case - triangle, flag or pennant
I think here may be a local bounce off this -1 line
Also, triangle break behaviour acts like that
Also, triangle break behaviour acts like that
$380-$400 is easily in range at the moment. Sub $300 within the next 12 months is likely.
Unless there's a QE 4, lets just say I'm sitting out for a while.
Unless there's a QE 4, lets just say I'm sitting out for a while.
There goes that support. I didn't think it would hold, but damn that was quick.
Very very bearish IMO now...
Very very bearish IMO now...
What does very very bearish look like to you? Under $400? Under $300??
Under $300 would definitely be extremely bearish... Around $400 is not a big deal IMO. During the April 2013 bubble the price deflated from $266 to $50 - that's a depreciation of 80%, on the contrary $400ish would only be a 65-70% depreciation compared to the $1242 top. I don't see much real drama happening if $300 is not broken on the downside, and I honestly don't see it happening.
There goes that support. I didn't think it would hold, but damn that was quick.
Very very bearish IMO now...
Very very bearish IMO now...
What does very very bearish look like to you? Under $400? Under $300??
There goes that support. I didn't think it would hold, but damn that was quick.
Very very bearish IMO now...
Very very bearish IMO now...
What you two call "inflection" are relative tops and bottoms.
The inflection point is where a slope that keeps getting more and more steep starts levelling off. In masterluc's chart that would be around the 5th of February in a positive slope. In oda.krell's we have an example where he put the sign "acceleration": For a brief time the line goes down fast and suddenly (in this case) starts going down slower.
It is not needed for the slope to be zero later, though that's the case in both charts.
The inflection point is where a slope that keeps getting more and more steep starts levelling off. In masterluc's chart that would be around the 5th of February in a positive slope. In oda.krell's we have an example where he put the sign "acceleration": For a brief time the line goes down fast and suddenly (in this case) starts going down slower.
It is not needed for the slope to be zero later, though that's the case in both charts.
Jup, you're right. Didn't really think that one through.
Edit : the observation about the price / ma relation remains, though, but the terms were wrong.
What you two call "inflection" are relative tops and bottoms.
The inflection point is where a slope that keeps getting more and more steep starts levelling off. In masterluc's chart that would be around the 5th of February in a positive slope. In oda.krell's we have an example where he put the sign "acceleration": For a brief time the line goes down fast and suddenly (in this case) starts going down slower.
It is not needed for the slope to be zero later, though that's the case in both charts.
The inflection point is where a slope that keeps getting more and more steep starts levelling off. In masterluc's chart that would be around the 5th of February in a positive slope. In oda.krell's we have an example where he put the sign "acceleration": For a brief time the line goes down fast and suddenly (in this case) starts going down slower.
It is not needed for the slope to be zero later, though that's the case in both charts.
I am not sure I wrote correctly "inflection" (not naturally english spoken).
I mean this - in June ma200 stopped rising and began to fall.
I mean this - in June ma200 stopped rising and began to fall.
"Inflection point" is correct imo.
Here's the comparable 2011 view.
Although ma365 showed great support in April - this was the first time this ma was useful. So i'd not trust this curve until price reacts with it several times in a row.
To be fair, I don't think this support is strong enough to hold past 6 months. However, for the short term (until October at least) I think it will hold.
Overall, I am also bearish long term (thanks to the Fed).
I am not sure I wrote correctly "inflection" (not naturally english spoken).
I mean this - in June ma200 stopped rising and began to fall.
I mean this - in June ma200 stopped rising and began to fall.
I see bearish development so far. I don't say it may not inverse, but bearish odds rising since d/ma200 inflection.
- Under daily ma200
- Daily ma200 inflection on 6-10 June (actually first big warning sign)
- Coiled weekly BB(20) suggests development of a big move and price is moving into its negative zone
- Weekly macd bearish cross
- Strong hidden bearish divergence on daily chart mentioned few pages above
- Under daily ma200
- Daily ma200 inflection on 6-10 June (actually first big warning sign)
- Coiled weekly BB(20) suggests development of a big move and price is moving into its negative zone
- Weekly macd bearish cross
- Strong hidden bearish divergence on daily chart mentioned few pages above
Although ma365 showed great support in April - this was the first time this ma was useful. So i'd not trust this curve until price reacts with it several times in a row.
i'd agree -- doesn't seem like enough data yet to draw much conclusion from it. are you still bearish, masterluc? it looks like there is a chance that reversal off $480 could be, but seems to lack strength to the upside now.
leaning bearish myself for now.
Although ma365 showed great support in April - this was the first time this ma was useful. So i'd not trust this curve until price reacts with it several times in a row.
Here's the support I am referring to:
How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?
I think he is referring to the MA that the candle is bouncing off of in that pic.
Lebing's got it.
Here's an updated pic with just the support I was referring to...
Here's the support I am referring to:
How are we supposed to see any support in that picture?
I think he is referring to the MA that the candle is bouncing off of in that pic.
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