Analysis - page 252. | Bitcointalksearch.org

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on August 09, 2014, 06:12:07 AM

Since off exchange trade doesn't influence price, I say it's irrelevant except that volumes on our charts are lower.

It doesn't directly influence price.

However: a off-exchange deal influences the market indirectly: maybe the seller would've sold on market instead, so the supply is withheld. Maybe the seller re-buys coins on the market because he now has less coins. Same for the buyer.

It's most clear with a miner who has to sell to cover fiat cost: hadn't he managed to sell off-exchange, he would sell on on-exchange.

Maybe it's not so clear-cut with early adopters: maybe they wouldn't have sold had they not been contacted with a good offer to sell a sizable chunk, maybe even invisibly to the tax man.

So I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle: off-exchange trades do influence the price on the exchanges indirectly, but probably not to the full extent.

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

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Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on August 08, 2014, 11:33:31 PM

Quote from: masterluc on August 08, 2014, 10:54:58 PM

Hidden bearish MACD divergence on daily chart detected

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340) Huh

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever Cheesy

More recent (hidden) bullish div on daily RSI, Fisher:

oda.krell

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: sumantso on August 09, 2014, 08:41:52 AM

Quote from: Argwai96 on August 09, 2014, 02:40:19 AM

Quote from: masterluc on August 09, 2014, 12:17:57 AM

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on August 08, 2014, 11:33:31 PM

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340) Huh

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever Cheesy

I think they already worked out

Any downside targets you are willing to share, masterluc? It's looking pretty bearish. Are we in for the full 3-year bear market? Undecided

Still wondering if the multi year bear scenario is going to play out. Any thoughts on these from our charters?

Depends on how you define 'bear scenario'. I can see us trading between 400 and 800 for another year (though I don't consider it very likely). That's "bearish" if you are part of the to da moon NOW crowd. On the other hand, I don't see much chance for a new correction low. Going back to low 500s: quite possible. High 400s: maybe. 300s: very unlikely imo, absent of some major news driven flash crash.

sumantso

legendary

Activity: 1050

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Quote from: Argwai96 on August 09, 2014, 02:40:19 AM

Quote from: masterluc on August 09, 2014, 12:17:57 AM

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on August 08, 2014, 11:33:31 PM

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340) Huh

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever Cheesy

I think they already worked out

Any downside targets you are willing to share, masterluc? It's looking pretty bearish. Are we in for the full 3-year bear market? Undecided

Still wondering if the multi year bear scenario is going to play out. Any thoughts on these from our charters?

tarmi

legendary

Activity: 1232

Merit: 1011

I am with masterluc on this one.

I see a lot of selling pressure on stamp. Someone is trying hard to keep the price above 580 $ mark, but someone is unloading big time.

I just cant see us breaking 620 any time soon.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

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Quote from: RyNinDaCleM on August 09, 2014, 06:12:07 AM

Quote from: windjc on August 09, 2014, 04:33:00 AM

Quote from: Wekkel on August 09, 2014, 04:29:17 AM

Quote from: Argwai96 on August 09, 2014, 02:40:19 AM

Quote from: masterluc on August 09, 2014, 12:17:57 AM

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on August 08, 2014, 11:33:31 PM

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340) Huh

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever Cheesy

I think they already worked out

Any downside targets you are willing to share, masterluc? It's looking pretty bearish. Are we in for the full 3-year bear market? Undecided

That would make perfect sense.

What these charts are not accounting for are the flight of coins from exchanges and the massive increase of off exchange buying that is currently going on. Traders are trading fibs and EWs and other points of support and resistance. But underneath the skin of bitcoin, there's a volcano hidden that these charts cant show us.

A question - why, now that the price is so much higher than a year ago, is ask depth so very very much lower??
Yes bid depth is lower too, but that can be accounted for by the rise in price. Ask depth can't.

A large portion of that can be attributed to the hodl... Since off exchange trade doesn't influence price, I say it's irrelevant except that volumes on our charts are lower. Off-exchange trade won't magically make the price higher on-exchange, or spark the next Bull run, so who cares? The depth charts are not indicative of the amount of supply OR demand on the exchanges, so they don't matter either.

There is another reason why off-exchange trade even happens. There is of course the well known reason of zero counter party risk. However, when large buyers (ie supposed hedge funds) are buying off-exchange, it's because they want to avoid the regulation side. They don't need to verify with an exchange, therefore they cannot be reported for the amount of Fiat that they are moving around, they have no worries of capital gains since it cannot be proven how much was paid for said coins. The whole process stay a little bit more anonymous than going through an exchange. I would bet, that is equal at a minimum and possibly the biggest reason why the off-exchange trade is happening.

I disagree. The price is several times higher than it was a year ago. There is price wise less reason to HODL now. Unless you are suggesting that all bitcoin owners are conspiring.

I think the lack of sell pressure is because of an increase in off exchange buying. The miners are the ones that can put 3600 coins a day on the exchanges. Where are these coins? The miners have bills.

Also to assume that off exchange buying doesn't effect price, it certainly can effect supply. And if supply is less than demand, and demand is waiting off exchange looking for more supply, that is a combustible situation. It's exactly the situation capable of causing another bubble. "Patient" money suddenly forced to chase price.

BowieMan

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Is there life on Mars?

I wonder if things are looking this bearish, or at least slightly bearish / hidden bearish, why haven't we broken down by now? If everything's this volatile, I guess we could've gone down by now!

RyNinDaCleM

legendary

Activity: 2408

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Legen -wait for it- dary

Quote from: windjc on August 09, 2014, 04:33:00 AM

Quote from: Wekkel on August 09, 2014, 04:29:17 AM

Quote from: Argwai96 on August 09, 2014, 02:40:19 AM

Quote from: masterluc on August 09, 2014, 12:17:57 AM

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on August 08, 2014, 11:33:31 PM

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340) Huh

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever Cheesy

I think they already worked out

Any downside targets you are willing to share, masterluc? It's looking pretty bearish. Are we in for the full 3-year bear market? Undecided

That would make perfect sense.

What these charts are not accounting for are the flight of coins from exchanges and the massive increase of off exchange buying that is currently going on. Traders are trading fibs and EWs and other points of support and resistance. But underneath the skin of bitcoin, there's a volcano hidden that these charts cant show us.

A question - why, now that the price is so much higher than a year ago, is ask depth so very very much lower??
Yes bid depth is lower too, but that can be accounted for by the rise in price. Ask depth can't.

A large portion of that can be attributed to the hodl... Since off exchange trade doesn't influence price, I say it's irrelevant except that volumes on our charts are lower. Off-exchange trade won't magically make the price higher on-exchange, or spark the next Bull run, so who cares? The depth charts are not indicative of the amount of supply OR demand on the exchanges, so they don't matter either.

There is another reason why off-exchange trade even happens. There is of course the well known reason of zero counter party risk. However, when large buyers (ie supposed hedge funds) are buying off-exchange, it's because they want to avoid the regulation side. They don't need to verify with an exchange, therefore they cannot be reported for the amount of Fiat that they are moving around, they have no worries of capital gains since it cannot be proven how much was paid for said coins. The whole process stay a little bit more anonymous than going through an exchange. I would bet, that is equal at a minimum and possibly the biggest reason why the off-exchange trade is happening.

windjc

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1070

Quote from: Wekkel on August 09, 2014, 04:29:17 AM

Quote from: Argwai96 on August 09, 2014, 02:40:19 AM

Quote from: masterluc on August 09, 2014, 12:17:57 AM

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on August 08, 2014, 11:33:31 PM

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340) Huh

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever Cheesy

I think they already worked out

Any downside targets you are willing to share, masterluc? It's looking pretty bearish. Are we in for the full 3-year bear market? Undecided

That would make perfect sense.

What these charts are not accounting for are the flight of coins from exchanges and the massive increase of off exchange buying that is currently going on. Traders are trading fibs and EWs and other points of support and resistance. But underneath the skin of bitcoin, there's a volcano hidden that these charts cant show us.

A question - why, now that the price is so much higher than a year ago, is ask depth so very very much lower??
Yes bid depth is lower too, but that can be accounted for by the rise in price. Ask depth can't.

Wekkel

legendary

Activity: 3108

Merit: 1531

yes

Quote from: Argwai96 on August 09, 2014, 02:40:19 AM

Quote from: masterluc on August 09, 2014, 12:17:57 AM

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on August 08, 2014, 11:33:31 PM

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340) Huh

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever Cheesy

I think they already worked out

Any downside targets you are willing to share, masterluc? It's looking pretty bearish. Are we in for the full 3-year bear market? Undecided

That would make perfect sense.

Argwai96

legendary

Activity: 1036

Merit: 1000

Thug for life!

Quote from: masterluc on August 09, 2014, 12:17:57 AM

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on August 08, 2014, 11:33:31 PM

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340) Huh

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever Cheesy

I think they already worked out

Any downside targets you are willing to share, masterluc? It's looking pretty bearish. Are we in for the full 3-year bear market? Undecided

masterluc

legendary

Activity: 938

Merit: 1013

Quote from: JustAnotherSheep on August 08, 2014, 11:33:31 PM

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340) Huh

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever Cheesy

I think they already worked out

JustAnotherSheep

full member

Activity: 239

Merit: 100

Quote from: masterluc on August 08, 2014, 10:54:58 PM

Hidden bearish MACD divergence on daily chart detected

Is there not also hidden bullish between bottom #1 ($380) and #2 ($400), and regular bullish between #2 and #3 ($340) Huh

Maybe they counteract each other and we will go sideways forever Cheesy

masterluc

legendary

Activity: 938

Merit: 1013

Hidden bearish MACD divergence on daily chart detected

BowieMan

full member

Activity: 154

Merit: 100

Is there life on Mars?

Quote from: molecular on August 08, 2014, 02:11:52 AM

Quote from: bitstumped on August 08, 2014, 01:00:36 AM

How do you see the tension between Russia, Ukraine, etc affecting the US stock markets? Bad time to be in? Anyone else feel like sitting on the sidelines for a while?

Not analysis, just a remark: You're always "in" something. In that sense there's no "sitting on the sidelines".

Yet, sitting in FIAT basically is sitting on the sidelines. It (still) is the stable side of currencies. If one would really want to remain unaffected by any means of fluctuation, one would have to spread the investments over all major FIAT currencies and different stocks.

sumantso

legendary

Activity: 1050

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Bagatell on August 02, 2014, 04:43:04 AM

Quote from: windjc on August 01, 2014, 09:43:41 PM

History is still waiting for Russia to win its first war. They can't even win wars against themselves.

The only winners in war are the bankers.

I read an article which said that most historic wars can be traced to bankers. Even the American Civil war was due to this.

molecular

donator

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1019

Quote from: bitstumped on August 08, 2014, 01:00:36 AM

How do you see the tension between Russia, Ukraine, etc affecting the US stock markets? Bad time to be in? Anyone else feel like sitting on the sidelines for a while?

Not analysis, just a remark: You're always "in" something. In that sense there's no "sitting on the sidelines".

bitstumped

newbie

Activity: 2

Merit: 0

How do you see the tension between Russia, Ukraine, etc affecting the US stock markets? Bad time to be in? Anyone else feel like sitting on the sidelines for a while?

Also, someone posted a log chart of the S&P a few pages/months back that showed a converging triangle (redundant?) in August, which I took to mean it would may be a pivotal month. Still looking that way?

Thanks in advance for your analysis.

seleme

legendary

Activity: 2772

Merit: 1028

Duelbits.com

Quote from: myself on August 03, 2014, 11:27:29 AM

Quote from: seleme on August 02, 2014, 08:02:43 AM

Quote from: masterluc on August 01, 2014, 08:46:25 PM

World War III is on a table. If Russia will be involved - China next - most ppl will die. US and especially EU will regret they provoked russians. Whatever came into your head - don't touch russians. Everyone who did it died hard.

Let's see how it would affect bitcoin price.

Lol, masterluc is some badass russian gangsta

hes in ukraine

Probably somewhere in Slaviansk or Donetsk, he is wanking on Russia whole the time.

myself

legendary

Activity: 938

Merit: 1000

chaos is fun...…damental :)

Quote from: seleme on August 02, 2014, 08:02:43 AM

Quote from: masterluc on August 01, 2014, 08:46:25 PM

World War III is on a table. If Russia will be involved - China next - most ppl will die. US and especially EU will regret they provoked russians. Whatever came into your head - don't touch russians. Everyone who did it died hard.

Let's see how it would affect bitcoin price.

Lol, masterluc is some badass russian gangsta

hes in ukraine

Topic: Analysis - page 252. (Read 941563 times)