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Topic: Analysis - page 261. (Read 941563 times)
In August - September 2011 daily MACD seemed to indicate a bullish divergence too, but the market said no:
For this chart - market said yes finally. On this chart divergences progressively developed during few months and eventually made major $1.99 low. 
In August - September 2011 daily MACD seemed to indicate a bullish divergence too, but the market said no:
lol are you serious? falling wedge pattern doesn't make sense in forex/bitcoin
edit: oh and btw we already broke the bottom line at $453 in gox
edit: oh and btw we already broke the bottom line at $453 in gox
#330 November 20 2013
Having bitcoins and gold seem horrible right now but having any fiat currencies will feel horrible within a few years when having bitcoins or gold will mean you are rich
I'm not really TA master but I don't see any bearish divergence out there. Bullish divergence failed, yeah, but there's no bearish one at all.
Bearish divergence: Price does higher high, indicator does lower high
Hidden bearish divergence: Indicator does higher high, price does lower high
This isn't really a bearish divergence if the slope is just less negative. Plus, you drew it from different points in time for price vs. indicator.
Anyway, I checked it out on bitcoincharts, and there, the daily MACD actually does show a hidden bearish divergence, very strictly speaking (the slope is almost flat). Didn't catch that before, so thanks for that.
Hidden bearish divergence: Indicator does higher high, price does lower high
This isn't really a bearish divergence if the slope is just less negative. Plus, you drew it from different points in time for price vs. indicator.
Anyway, I checked it out on bitcoincharts, and there, the daily MACD actually does show a hidden bearish divergence, very strictly speaking (the slope is almost flat). Didn't catch that before, so thanks for that.
How bullish divergence turns into bearish
What looked like a bullish divergence was caused by the truncation of the downward sub-wave, possibly because of positive news from China at that time.
But when weekly MACD is about to go negative for the first time since September 2011, guess what comes next...
It is interesting and it may be enough to make a trade for a day trader
But there are a few scenarios from where we are and some are bullish
...
What looked like a bullish divergence was caused by the truncation of the downward sub-wave, possibly because of positive news from China at that time.
But when weekly MACD is about to go negative for the first time since September 2011, guess what comes next...
What looked like a bullish divergence was caused by the truncation of the downward sub-wave, possibly because of positive news from China at that time.
But when weekly MACD is about to go negative for the first time since September 2011, guess what comes next...
dump?
How bullish divergence turns into bearish
What looked like a bullish divergence was caused by the truncation of the downward sub-wave, possibly because of positive news from China at that time.
But when weekly MACD is about to go negative for the first time since September 2011, guess what comes next...
How bullish divergence turns into bearish
Very interesting - thanks for posting it.
How bullish divergence turns into bearish
lol
I have absolutely no idea what to make of this 
The triangle has been pierced on both sides, however I feel the volume for the drop was far too low to indicate a bottom, and volume for the rally is almost nonexistent. Perhaps the triangle has been rendered obsolete, and this is a retrace of the still-relevant downtrend?
The triangle has been pierced on both sides, however I feel the volume for the drop was far too low to indicate a bottom, and volume for the rally is almost nonexistent. Perhaps the triangle has been rendered obsolete, and this is a retrace of the still-relevant downtrend?
i'm no market expert or anything, but couldn't the low volumes at the bottom be fuel for an even bigger rush?
Consider this:
For months a lot of people have been patiently waiting for the price to drop. and it did drop to $340ish eventually. If for a week or so the price seems to be stable at $400+ or even rising (even if it rises with 1% a day) all these people who were waiting for cheap coins may lose faith that the price will ever reach sub-340 again and will panicbuy, as soon as some of them buy, the price wil rise even more, triggering a chain reaction of panicbuys and therefore a new rush with a very high volume.
Is this a plausible scenario? I think so, but like i said, i'm not an expert.
I can imagine a dozen of scenarios where the price is going up rapidly in a matter of months; people panic buying, shorts buying buying back their positions and positive price news momentum will push the price even higher in everyone of the scenarios
Does anyone know when was the last 1 week EMA cross in bitcoin history?
Bitstamp - January 11, 2012.
Price of Bitcoin - $6.95
This is a lovely chart... thank you very much for it.
You're welcome, glad you like it
Here's an extrapolation of the same chart:
i like this chart
sorry TA-Guys (some of them are noobs):
an intraday Violation ist not considered to be a breach of a line.
It should last more than 1 day, then we can say the trend is broken (except of "false breakouts")
an intraday Violation ist not considered to be a breach of a line.
It should last more than 1 day, then we can say the trend is broken (except of "false breakouts")
Just need some volume for confirmation and then the end of the bear? 
http://imgur.com/XAlilkl
(edited because for some reason imgur is blocked today...)
http://imgur.com/XAlilkl
(edited because for some reason imgur is blocked today...)
This is a lovely chart... thank you very much for it.
You're welcome, glad you like it
Here's an extrapolation of the same chart:
as were talking about charts, here's the whole data set on a log scale.
the first trade being around 5c on good ol' MtGox:
I predict (I ask nobody to believe me and I do not claim 100% certainty) it will stay above the lower trend until at least 2016 by which time the price will be >$20k/BTC and then the volatility will be much less, no more bubbles. It will then slowly transition into linear growth and then rise to an asymptote of saturation >$50k/BTC and then trade like a "stable" forex.
the first trade being around 5c on good ol' MtGox:
I predict (I ask nobody to believe me and I do not claim 100% certainty) it will stay above the lower trend until at least 2016 by which time the price will be >$20k/BTC and then the volatility will be much less, no more bubbles. It will then slowly transition into linear growth and then rise to an asymptote of saturation >$50k/BTC and then trade like a "stable" forex.
This is a lovely chart... thank you very much for it.
as were talking about charts, here's the whole data set on a log scale.
the first trade being around 5c on good ol' MtGox:
I predict (I ask nobody to believe me and I do not claim 100% certainty) it will stay above the lower trend until at least 2016 by which time the price will be >$20k/BTC and then the volatility will be much less, no more bubbles. It will then slowly transition into linear growth and then rise to an asymptote of saturation >$50k/BTC and then trade like a "stable" forex.
the first trade being around 5c on good ol' MtGox:
I predict (I ask nobody to believe me and I do not claim 100% certainty) it will stay above the lower trend until at least 2016 by which time the price will be >$20k/BTC and then the volatility will be much less, no more bubbles. It will then slowly transition into linear growth and then rise to an asymptote of saturation >$50k/BTC and then trade like a "stable" forex.
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