A lot of people (too many?) are focusing on the weekly 200 MA but breaking it doesn't really matter. In October 2008, Amazon stock broke below it for around 3 months (around $50 at the time), 1 year later the price had almost tripled.
No indicator (moving average or otherwise) is a guarantee of support or resistance. It's just a matter of probability. It's obvious the 200-week MA (along with the 200-day and 20-week) are important for traders and investors, whether because of a self-fulfilling prophecy or otherwise. Markets often respect these levels, including Bitcoin.
The first data on the 200-week MA in Bitcoin markets came out in 2014. The only times the market ever tested it (twice in 2015), it held. With such limited price history (2010 on), it's hard to ignore that.
True. My point is that a close below the weekly 200 MA doesn't mean the end of the BTC bull market and is where the smart money hopes to buy Your bitcoins by inducing a panic reaction.
I believe the holders, the "weak hands", and whoever is participating in this market have already acquired enough knowledge and experience of the Bitcoin market not to fall for the whalecumulators' traps.
On the contrary, I believe they will be placing bids below the weekly 200 MA.
That's totally possible, and the weekly 200 MA might even hold. But it's very clear the wannabe BTC bottom buyers are building a narrative, that BTC has never broken the weekly 200 MA and if it does it's the end of the world. Very transparent.
I don't believe that they are "building" a narrative, more of an analysis that doesn't deal with absolutes, but more on the probabilities that it might hold the weekly 200 MA based on past performance.
