Analysis - page 30. | Bitcointalksearch.org

gentlemand

legendary

Activity: 2590

Merit: 3015

Welt Am Draht

Quote from: jadenunderhill on November 19, 2018, 03:08:43 PM

May be, his crystal ball is broken?

His crystal ball diverged from the predictions that made his rep a long time ago.

I'm still interested in what he has to say but he's just as human as the rest of us. He had a good run all the same. Maybe he'll bounce back.

jadenunderhill

full member

Activity: 293

Merit: 109

And my little comment. I'v been observing his predictions from the beginning of the year. And now it looks sad for me. First, he predicted the uptrend. Then, in June, he totally chandged his mind to the opposite thing. He wrote that because of "gyus from Wallstreet, who are pressing the down button" it would be a long correction till minimum 2019 and the ultimate support level had to be $3000. Then he changed his mind again in October. And again to the oposite issue. "Stocs are going down, but btc will not" and published the chart with $50000 to the mid 2019. And now this. Opposite again. And the $1200 support level.
May be, his crystal ball is broken?

jadenunderhill

full member

Activity: 293

Merit: 109

Here is my translation:

Well, you see the situation. Weekly bb went expansion down. How far down? Enky was right. I do not exclude that it will touch the weekly ma200 - $3000.

At the same time, the long-term trend is not broken until we touch the $ 1200 level. Yes, I know that we broke the logarithmic trend, but BTC doesn’t grow along a straight trend, but the sqrt trend. That’s why, the nearest support is weekly ma200.

I can say that 10 months ago, when I wrote that the correction will last a year - it seemed too little for me. But I was guided by the 2011-2012 correction model, and it almost worked. Enky was guided by the model 2013-2015. Most likely there will be something third. His model is still working, but mine is gone.

In general, the correction is delayed for a little more than a year. The alarmists will be left without pants, and Enky will soon go to Long. And I’ll do nothing. As always

fright

newbie

Activity: 32

Merit: 0

New update from Master. Who can translate better than google translate?

"Hy cитyaцию вы видитe. Пo нeдeльнoмy бб пoшлo pacшиpeниe движeниeм вниз. Дoкyдa вниз? Enky был пpaв. He иcключaю кacaния нeдeльнoй мa200 @3000.

Bмecтe c тeм, дoлгocpoчный тpeнд нe нapyшeн, пoкa нe пpикacaeм ypoвeнь $1200. Дa, я знaю чтo мы пpoбили лoгapифмичecкий тpeнд, нo битoк pacтeт нe пo пpямoмy тpeндy, a пo sqrt-тpeндy. Пo этoмy, ближaйшaя пoддepжкa - нeдeльнaя мa200.

Moгy cкaзaть, чтo 10 мecяцeв нaзaд, кoгдa я пиcaл, чтo кoppeкция пpoдлитcя гoд - чёт мнe caмoмy мaлo кaзaлocь. Ho я opиeнтиpoвaлcя нa мoдeль кoppeкции 2011-2012, и oнa пoчти cpaбoтaлa. Enky opиeнтиpoвaлcя нa мoдeль 2013-2015. Cкopeй вceгo бyдeт вooбщe чтo-тo тpeтьe. Ho eгo мoдeль пoкa paбoтaeт, a мoя yжe нeт.

B oбщeм кoppeкция пoкa зaтягивaeтcя чyть бoльшe,чeм нa гoд. Пaникepы ocтaнyтcя бeз штaнoв, a enky cкopo зaйдeт в Лoнг. A я ничeгo нe дeлaю. Кaк вceгдa

"

emifox

newbie

Activity: 4

Merit: 0

"Enky was right

https://btctrading.wordpress.com/2018/10/01/long-term-update-nothing-new-to-report

"

So, wait for 4k or 5.2k can hold?

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: podyx on November 09, 2018, 09:39:50 AM

Things aren't looking so good anymore Undecided

It got rejected at the 1-day upper Bollinger Band. Price has stopped at the bands in both directions for the past two months. I guess we shouldn't be surprised at the failure to breakout.

I'd call it sideways, painful sideways. Now the ball is back in the bears' court. A new low sub-$6,200 (Bitstamp) might get things rolling.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3892

Merit: 11105

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: podyx on November 09, 2018, 09:39:50 AM

Things aren't looking so good anymore Undecided

You referring to alts or to bitcoin, or to both?

I would not mix up short term dynamics with long term bitcoin prospects and if we stick with bitcoin, things seem to be looking good, even with some of the various ongoing short terms shake ups, including our ongoing current correction down from $19,666 to our current location bouncing around in the supra $6k price area.

podyx

legendary

Activity: 2338

Merit: 1035

Things aren't looking so good anymore Undecided

MarquiseMuseum

member

Activity: 744

Merit: 29

www.MarquiseMuseum.com

200% alt rally in 20 days, global 422

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1094

Quote from: Tzupy on October 29, 2018, 06:46:30 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 29, 2018, 01:28:12 AM

Quote from: Tzupy on October 28, 2018, 08:21:54 AM

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN. Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer?

Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range?

Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like:

"Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... "

Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon"^TM.

Well, the start of the expected move just happened, lets see where it will find support. However, the 12h PSAR flip to bearish put the starting point high, so 12h PSAR won't flip back to bullish soon.
This move had to happen soon, because there were both bullish and bearish possibilities, and a such low volatility and tight BB can't last too long.

PS. This also (just now) flipped the daily PSAR to bearish. Time to buy when daily will leave oversold, it's just entering now.

While the 12h PSAR started high, it developed towards a bullish flip, which may happen today or tomorrow. Support held while not entering oversold on daily and existed oversold on 12h.
Several major alts also look like they are forming bullish double bottoms in MACD, with daily MACD bullish crossings possible soon. And coinsight is back, nice...

ft73

hero member

Activity: 564

Merit: 508

A pullback to the edge of the wedge is likely, but it's ... almost there.
Volume is the key.

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: ft73 on October 29, 2018, 09:17:09 AM

On Bitfinex support did hold so far.
Moreover still within BB and Keltner.
Still squeezing.

I wouldn't bet on direction till squeeze is released.

We'll see.
At least we've got some action.

It's finally starting to feel like the breakout is coming. And what often comes before a breakout? A fakeout.

We broke down from the 4-hour squeeze, but we're still comfortably within the daily Bollinger Bands. Price was dumping when I went to sleep, but seems there was no follow-through overnight.

Anecdotally, all my friends closed their longs. Could be a good old stop run. We've got a nail-biter here.

ft73

hero member

Activity: 564

Merit: 508

Quote from: Tzupy on October 29, 2018, 06:46:30 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 29, 2018, 01:28:12 AM

Quote from: Tzupy on October 28, 2018, 08:21:54 AM

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN. Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer?

Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range?

Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like:

"Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... "

Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon"^TM.

Well, the start of the expected move just happened, lets see where it will find support. However, the 12h PSAR flip to bearish put the starting point high, so 12h PSAR won't flip back to bullish soon.
This move had to happen soon, because there were both bullish and bearish possibilities, and a such low volatility and tight BB can't last too long.

PS. This also (just now) flipped the daily PSAR to bearish. Time to buy when daily will leave oversold, it's just entering now.

I'm not sure, actually.

Volume is increased, but uninpressive so far.
Cannot rule out a fakeout.

To go further down on Bitstamp price should pierce through MACD /12H dynamic support

Otherwise rebound expected.

On Bitfinex support did hold so far.
Moreover still within BB and Keltner.
Still squeezing.

I wouldn't bet on direction till squeeze is released.

We'll see.
At least we've got some action.

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1094

Quote from: JayJuanGee on October 29, 2018, 01:28:12 AM

Quote from: Tzupy on October 28, 2018, 08:21:54 AM

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN. Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer?

Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range?

Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like:

"Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... "

Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon"^TM.

Well, the start of the expected move just happened, lets see where it will find support. However, the 12h PSAR flip to bearish put the starting point high, so 12h PSAR won't flip back to bullish soon.
This move had to happen soon, because there were both bullish and bearish possibilities, and a such low volatility and tight BB can't last too long.

PS. This also (just now) flipped the daily PSAR to bearish. Time to buy when daily will leave oversold, it's just entering now.

ft73

hero member

Activity: 564

Merit: 508

Quote from: figmentofmyass on October 28, 2018, 06:32:18 PM

Quote from: Tzupy on October 28, 2018, 08:21:54 AM

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

short/long ratio on bitfinex is bullish. shorts are still much higher than longs, which means more fuel for an upside breakout. the ratio looked more bullish a week ago though.

as the master pointed out some time ago, the $6000-7000 range still looks like an accumulation level. between that and the commitment of traders, i'm slightly bullish. but from a TA standpoint, i'm pretty neutral. just waiting for a breakout. Lips sealed

AND we got a falling wedge on Bitfinex + Keltner channel squeeze.

BUT Weekly volume is close to historical low for the last 2 years.

No volume = no signal.

JayJuanGee

legendary

Activity: 3892

Merit: 11105

Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Quote from: Tzupy on October 28, 2018, 08:21:54 AM

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

Call me ignoramus, but I am having some difficulties understanding any proposition that "something has to happen" in terms of BTC price moving either UP or DOWN. Why can't bitcoin price stay sideways for another 6 months or longer?

Why does up or down price movement "have to be imminent" based on current tightening of BTC's price range?

Seems to me that a more accurate statement would be something like:

"Based on analysis of historical price trends, odds are 70% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 3 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 3 weeks then odds are 75% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 6 weeks, and if such UP or DOWN movement does not happen in the next 6 weeks then odds are 80% that either an UP or DOWN movement will happen in the next 12 weeks, etc etc etc... "

Just seems a bit presumptuous to be asserting that BTC UP or DOWN has to happen "soon"^TM.

adaseb

legendary

Activity: 3808

Merit: 1723

In my opinion the stock market hasn't exactly crashed. Yes some stocks had bad -20% days or so but we are not entering a bearish recession just yet. If you look at this from a weekly or monthly chart, stocks are still bullish.

The only people who think there is going to be a stock market crash are retail new traders and places like CNBC or Bloomberg but the big hedge funds and Soros are all busy buying up everyone's stock which they are all selling at a loss.

If we do actually enter some type of recession, then there might appear to be some outflows of the stock market and into the crypto market. However until the stock markets break the 2018 lows which is support, its too early to say.

The stocks are a buy at the moment.

figmentofmyass

legendary

Activity: 1652

Merit: 1483

Quote from: Tzupy on October 28, 2018, 08:21:54 AM

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

short/long ratio on bitfinex is bullish. shorts are still much higher than longs, which means more fuel for an upside breakout. the ratio looked more bullish a week ago though.

as the master pointed out some time ago, the $6000-7000 range still looks like an accumulation level. between that and the commitment of traders, i'm slightly bullish. but from a TA standpoint, i'm pretty neutral. just waiting for a breakout. Lips sealed

marcus_of_augustus

legendary

Activity: 3920

Merit: 2349

Eadem mutata resurgo

bakkt up the truck, the fun is about to commence.

Tzupy

legendary

Activity: 2170

Merit: 1094

In the 6h and 12h time frames, the Bollinger bands are very tight, also PSAR flip may happen very soon.
So a move can be expected very soon, with a bearish bias IMO (12h PSAR may flip to bearish), although the local EW structure looks a bit bullish.
It is very annoying that coinsight is down... In such times of decision, the bid / ask ratio could help predict the outcome... Roll Eyes

Topic: Analysis - page 30. (Read 941579 times)