Topic: Analysis - page 45. (Read 941579 times)

Ah well. If Mr Luc's chart does fail at least that'll stop it being posted absolutely everywhere by every optimist out there. It was starting to look more familiar than my own face.

See Enky's blogpost his Jan 18 blogpost here: https://btctrading.wordpress.com/
On the comments to his post, he replies on Feb 1 to one of the posted questions:
Bearish Scenario is in place with today drop, if there is a repetition of 2013-2015 beark market the support area might be the one from 4300 to 5800, check my twitter profile to see the chart.

He also says that he plans to post his BTC analysis when possible.

His twitter profile is here: https://twitter.com/Bitcoin_Trading
He also confirms there that he'll plan on continuing his BTC analysis.

Now for a little lighthearted fun in this trying time.
The old man Vanga posted the picture of is a retired electrical engineer in Hungary with a big Russian fan base.
In English his meme name is "Hide the Pain Harold."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Z04WcR1KIY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHVJD7k1km8

No idea, I figured it was just his website

Where does Enky post at besides his website?

it does seem that way. I think ENKY will post again, but, might be a while, he said he was busy in one of his last comments.

Does anyone else have any further analysis from where ENKY's analysis stopped, that's if they agree with it. Or do they have a contrary one, because it would seem this bearish trend isn't going away anytime soon?

That's ENKY's analysis , he hasn't mentioned anything since that. Seems he has stopped analyzing the market

Just to be clear, what would be the critical bearish limit before one should really get worried? As indicated by the below stated new lows?

I notice he says "The critical level at 7700 does not really matter anymore, because I see that the wave is over."

I'm guessing this means that the 7700 level is unimportant now because it has been hit, meaning that wave 3 confirmed over (also meaning that 7700 was not meant to be the bottom, but just end of wave 3). If this is the case, I presume he means that it can go lower now, and it doesn't mean anything because we are already in wave 4.

I imagine the posts we should now be waiting for are when he thinks wave 4 will end, and at what price point it will end.

Does that sound right to anyone?

Biodom, he is clearly referring here to his earlier advice to "ruthlessly buy" under 10k. I have been learning Russian for many years, but it is not my first language, so I am struggling to understand subtler points, and the Master likes to sounds mysterious at times . So you think this "sell because it is not for you" advise does not mean he thinks we are going much down again after 13-15k, but is more an advice to the "nonbelievers" to sell there, not at the current bottom?

Re: wave 4. ML clearly thinks it is underway, says in comments it should take a couple months.

Not a comrade, but rather Mr, but will try:

Re 3 and 4 he said the following in his original tongue:

Teкyщee пaдeниe oчeнь xopoшo oтcкчит в paйoн 13000-15000 в кopoткocpoчнoй пepcпeктивe, гдe cмoгyт pacпpoдaтьcя тe, ктo зaкyпилcя пo мoeмy coвeтy, нo yжe ycпeл пpoкляcть вce нa cвeтe и oбмoчить пaмпepcы. Cливaйтecь тaм, пoтoмy чтo этo нe для вac.

Best translation I can conjure:

The current decline might very well re-bounce into the 13000-15000 region (short term), where those who bought on my advice [I assume his advice re buying below 10K], but already cursed everything in the world and peed their pampers would be able to sell. Dump there, because this is not for you [a.k.a you piss your pampers during the 10K-7.7 K move-refers to those who got scared].

Wave 4...it's not unusual to be a large ABCDE triangle/wedge. So Luke can still be right, that we hit the bottom at 7700. The wedge can take 6-12 months to form.

Great, thank you again. You have really cleared this up for me.

Two days ago, he didn't say "complete", but he drew a large red dot in the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement region and said from here we go up.  He also said wave 4 is underway.  Regarding his comment about bounce back to $13,000-$15,000, maybe something is lost in Google translate or something more subtle.  Perhaps a Russian comrade here can help translate, or hopefully ML will clear things up as we approach it.

Thanks for the explanation, that was great help.

Only thing I don't understand is the following


He did say wave 4 was complete though right? So surely he doesn't mean we're heading down further, or was he not entirely clear on the wave 4 being complete part?

I was under the impression that the red circle on the latest chart represented the bottom that we will never see again, or maybe will only be seen after crash from 100k.

As I understand it, ML indicated wave 3 was finished since BTC price had dropped to near the Fibonacci level of 61.8% from the start of the wave, i.e., ($19,800-$150)*(1-0.618)=$7,506.  I guess he used $7,700 as close enough, especially since these numbers could be exchange dependent and may not need to be exact anyway. Clearly that's when he decided wave 3 was finished and changed it to witness of the 3 to witness of the 5 and said we are in 4 now.

In one chart version that seems to have been deleted from his Russian TradingView account, wave 2 was shown as the 2013-2015 bear market which was obviously a slow decline. A common EW pattern is that if wave 2 is a slow decline, then wave 4 is a rapid decline, and if wave 2 is rapid then wave 4 is slow.  The latter is the norm in many EW waves, but the former one seems to fit where we are now.   Another chart of his shows that wave 4 ending at $7,709 which is close to $7,563, i.e., 61.8% retracement of $19,800, and he commented that's the end of wave 4 and we go up from there.

As far as I can tell, and as of now, the EW pattern is holding and ML is on track.  The EW pattern could break of course, but ML has stated he's convinced of the uptrend.

He's projecting that we bounce back to $13,000-$15,000 in the short term, but I can't tell why he's saying that's where people who bought on his advice could sell.  Google Translate says "Merge there, because it is not for you."  Either he's being sarcastic and saying people who still don't believe him could sell there and thus miss the $100K run.  Or he's protecting those who bought at the previous "dip" to $10K based on his advice since we're heading down much further before finishing wave 4.

So, your saying that wave 3 is still in progress and we will either end up at 40k if we rally quickly and 100k if we do it slower. To me, Seeing as we've had this correction so far it would look like we are heading towards the 100k. But, this correction is much more deep then the one on that chart (14k) so despite this deep correction wave 3 would still be in play?

how deep would this correction have to get to show wave 3 is over?

I really like ML earlier analysis, which is also consistent with BETI:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

as you can see from this, it all depends on timing. If we go there very quickly, 2-3 months (seems completely unlikely now), it would be "only" 60-70k, if it will take longer, will be 100k or more. I know it sounds a bit like a sci-fi now, but if you believe in bitcoin expenontial netwrok growth/price growth theory, something like that should happen. It is also possible that maturing of the markets will cause flatter peaks and dips, this analysis assumes same relative peaks as in 2013. Anyway, according to exponential growth the "fair price" of btc should be around 13k this August, is around 8k now.

Can't say I've read his previous entries, only read about ENKY recently since ML had an interest in his analysis. But his last blog entry and comments in that entry have been spot on, so far.

Hopefully ML is right though, but, I have heard other people being critical of his wave 3. In your opinion where do you think wave 3 would end?