Analysis - page 46. | Bitcointalksearch.org

bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2

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Quote from: windjc on February 04, 2018, 08:35:05 PM

Quote from: somac. on February 04, 2018, 08:28:24 PM

Quote from: bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2 on February 04, 2018, 08:20:10 PM

Quote from: somac. on February 04, 2018, 05:14:28 PM

I hate to say this but at the moment ENKY is looking more accurate than ML. ENKY's last post mentioned that if there would be a drop past the $9500 level it would go down to $7700 then go back to $9500 then into a bear market.

Not looking good guys.

Where does Enky says that? I only found a post where he says 7600-9500 is a support area - is that what you mean?

In his last blog post https://btctrading.wordpress.com/

Quote

I think that this market is headed well above 20000$ in the upcoming weeks/months, for completeness a possible bearish scenario would imply first a drop down to 7500$, a subsequent reaction to 9500$-10000$ before resuming the fall to new lows. This possible bearish scenario would convince me to liquidate all the bitcoins i bought in 2014-2015. As long XBTUSD stays above 9500$ i’m not worried for my long term position.

I got the 7700 bit wrong though, should have said 7500

Wow. Reading his blog entries we was wrong a lot.

+1, Master has a much better track record than Enky. However, Master's current wave counts seems wrong to me, I mean saying that the historical wave 3 has ended, not its 3rd subwave (i.e. (3)).

windjc

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Quote from: somac. on February 04, 2018, 08:28:24 PM

Quote from: bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2 on February 04, 2018, 08:20:10 PM

Quote from: somac. on February 04, 2018, 05:14:28 PM

I hate to say this but at the moment ENKY is looking more accurate than ML. ENKY's last post mentioned that if there would be a drop past the $9500 level it would go down to $7700 then go back to $9500 then into a bear market.

Not looking good guys.

Where does Enky says that? I only found a post where he says 7600-9500 is a support area - is that what you mean?

In his last blog post https://btctrading.wordpress.com/

Quote

I think that this market is headed well above 20000$ in the upcoming weeks/months, for completeness a possible bearish scenario would imply first a drop down to 7500$, a subsequent reaction to 9500$-10000$ before resuming the fall to new lows. This possible bearish scenario would convince me to liquidate all the bitcoins i bought in 2014-2015. As long XBTUSD stays above 9500$ i’m not worried for my long term position.

I got the 7700 bit wrong though, should have said 7500

Wow. Reading his blog entries we was wrong a lot.

somac.

legendary

Activity: 2050

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Never selling

Quote from: bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2 on February 04, 2018, 08:20:10 PM

Quote from: somac. on February 04, 2018, 05:14:28 PM

I hate to say this but at the moment ENKY is looking more accurate than ML. ENKY's last post mentioned that if there would be a drop past the $9500 level it would go down to $7700 then go back to $9500 then into a bear market.

Not looking good guys.

Where does Enky says that? I only found a post where he says 7600-9500 is a support area - is that what you mean?

In his last blog post https://btctrading.wordpress.com/

Quote

I think that this market is headed well above 20000$ in the upcoming weeks/months, for completeness a possible bearish scenario would imply first a drop down to 7500$, a subsequent reaction to 9500$-10000$ before resuming the fall to new lows. This possible bearish scenario would convince me to liquidate all the bitcoins i bought in 2014-2015. As long XBTUSD stays above 9500$ i’m not worried for my long term position.

I got the 7700 bit wrong though, should have said 7500

bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2

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Activity: 28

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Quote from: somac. on February 04, 2018, 05:14:28 PM

I hate to say this but at the moment ENKY is looking more accurate than ML. ENKY's last post mentioned that if there would be a drop past the $9500 level it would go down to $7700 then go back to $9500 then into a bear market.

Not looking good guys.

Where does Enky says that? I only found a post where he says 7600-9500 is a support area - is that what you mean?

Biodom

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Activity: 3892

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Quote from: Tzupy on February 04, 2018, 05:35:12 PM

Don't try to deduce too much from the comparison with April - June 2013. Back then the price was pumped by Markus the bot with fake fiat, the real fiat came in after the spike to 260$.
So the deep crash and recovery broke the EW rules, and it's not helpful to compare with the current situation, at least not from the EW perspective, I am still trying from a simpler MACD perspective.
During the summer and autumn of 2013 the only way to "cash out" from MtGox, the leading exchange, was to buy bitcoin, so even the recovery could have been faked. Back then many expected a final drop to ~30$.

The efficient market hypothesis suggests that market 'knows" about manipulation.
If we start talking about manipulations, where would it stop?
EVERYTHING is manipulated, so this becomes a circular argument.
Please, show me something (an asset class) that is not manipulated.

Tzupy

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Quote from: explorer on February 04, 2018, 02:15:55 AM

Quote from: exstasie on February 04, 2018, 01:05:05 AM

Quote from: sickpig on February 02, 2018, 08:44:06 AM

Quote from: somac. on February 02, 2018, 07:50:48 AM

I am very interested to hear what masterluc says next. I doesn't seem like the markets psychology can turn bullish again after this level of beating so soon. This could very well be another 2014/15

https://vk.com/wall-130254204_8317
https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/hg0S8xjw-historical-3-looks-to-be-completed/

According to google translate he thinks we are witnessing something similar to the correction of April 2013. Short term a rebound to 13-15k.
Once current correction will end next wave will bring us to 100k. Unfortunately google translate and my comprehension is not helping with determining the timing of this movement.

Excellent, thanks for catching this post. That's been my thinking as well....that we are in a correction similar to April 2013. If that fractal plays out, it means that the lows are probably already in with the Daily 200MA tag. But it would also mean the correction isn't over. If that's the case, I'd expect a bounce to the .618 or so before bleeding back down. Glad to see the master agrees!

Timing-wise, things are taking much longer than in 2013. To give some perspective: From top to bottom in April 2013 ($260 to $45), it took 3 days. By comparison, this leg down took 6 weeks.

$45 was a spike that disappeared pretty fast. We didn't begin recovering from April 2013 until $63 at the end of June. And 3 months after that, Silk Road and BOOM.

Don't try to deduce too much from the comparison with April - June 2013. Back then the price was pumped by Markus the bot with fake fiat, the real fiat came in after the spike to 260$.
So the deep crash and recovery broke the EW rules, and it's not helpful to compare with the current situation, at least not from the EW perspective, I am still trying from a simpler MACD perspective.
During the summer and autumn of 2013 the only way to "cash out" from MtGox, the leading exchange, was to buy bitcoin, so even the recovery could have been faked. Back then many expected a final drop to ~30$.

somac.

legendary

Activity: 2050

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Never selling

I hate to say this but at the moment ENKY is looking more accurate than ML. ENKY's last post mentioned that if there would be a drop past the $9500 level it would go down to $7700 then go back to $9500 then into a bear market.

Not looking good guys.

Biodom

legendary

Activity: 3892

Merit: 4331

Quote from: Remember remember the 5th of November on February 04, 2018, 01:55:21 PM

Quote from: Biodom on February 04, 2018, 01:51:39 PM

Quote from: bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2 on February 04, 2018, 01:22:36 PM

Quote from: Biodom on February 04, 2018, 12:08:19 PM

Yeah, why not? it is already at around Fib 61.8
If it goes down much lower, than it is a longer term bear market, not a 4.
If 7600 is A, then B is higher (to around 14K), then C (back to around 8k ), then much higher to wave 5.

I am really confused, ML said that the "historic 3" has ended, he even changed the name of the community to "witnesses of 5" (was 3 before), during the dump to 7.7 he said that it is nothing in comparison with the next correction. So it seems that he thinks that the 2015-2017 bull market has ended. Elsewhere on the side he said he thinks 4 would last only a couple of months, would be strange for a largest scale bear market, the previous one was almost 2 years.

If the dumps end here, in his red circle, and we go up within a couple of months (which I hope), I do not understand why to say that the historic 3 has ended? Then rise to 19k would be just (3) of 3, and the current correction (4) of 3.

Is the reason ML says historic 3 has ended is because we hit, or even went below, 61.8 Fib? Anyway, his current count seems less logical than all his previous ideas, I still think he may adjust it.

Regardless of what will happen and whether his is right or not, you got his opinion exactly backwards.
His opinion: wave 3 is 19.6K, 4 is what is going on now, later wave 5 at 50-100K.
What you are talking about as "nothing in comparison" is something that will come AFTER 5 at 50-100K.

So a 50-100k bullrun would mean a massive drop to the 4 or 3 digits?

He did not provide any numbers, but my take is maybe a 90-95% decrease from a very very high number.
Say, 60K to 6K or 120K to the same 6K. incidentally, the TenX guy (Julian Hosp) had similar numbers:
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/26/bitcoin-price-in-2018-could-hit-60000-but-another-crash-is-coming.html
Something for comparison is Amazon in 1999-2001 ($100 to $5). You know what happened afterwards Cheesy

Remember remember the 5th of November

legendary

Activity: 1862

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Reverse engineer from time to time

Quote from: Biodom on February 04, 2018, 01:51:39 PM

Quote from: bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2 on February 04, 2018, 01:22:36 PM

Quote from: Biodom on February 04, 2018, 12:08:19 PM

Yeah, why not? it is already at around Fib 61.8
If it goes down much lower, than it is a longer term bear market, not a 4.
If 7600 is A, then B is higher (to around 14K), then C (back to around 8k ), then much higher to wave 5.

I am really confused, ML said that the "historic 3" has ended, he even changed the name of the community to "witnesses of 5" (was 3 before), during the dump to 7.7 he said that it is nothing in comparison with the next correction. So it seems that he thinks that the 2015-2017 bull market has ended. Elsewhere on the side he said he thinks 4 would last only a couple of months, would be strange for a largest scale bear market, the previous one was almost 2 years.

If the dumps end here, in his red circle, and we go up within a couple of months (which I hope), I do not understand why to say that the historic 3 has ended? Then rise to 19k would be just (3) of 3, and the current correction (4) of 3.

Is the reason ML says historic 3 has ended is because we hit, or even went below, 61.8 Fib? Anyway, his current count seems less logical than all his previous ideas, I still think he may adjust it.

regardless of what will happen and whether his is right or not, you got his opinion exactly backwards.
His opinion: wave 3 is 19.6K, 4 is what is going on now, later wave 5 at 50-100K.
what you are talking about as "nothing in comparison" is something that will come AFTER 5 at 50-100K.

So a 50-100k bullrun would mean a massive drop to the 4 or 3 digits?

Biodom

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Activity: 3892

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Quote from: bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2 on February 04, 2018, 01:22:36 PM

Quote from: Biodom on February 04, 2018, 12:08:19 PM

Yeah, why not? it is already at around Fib 61.8
If it goes down much lower, than it is a longer term bear market, not a 4.
If 7600 is A, then B is higher (to around 14K), then C (back to around 8k ), then much higher to wave 5.

I am really confused, ML said that the "historic 3" has ended, he even changed the name of the community to "witnesses of 5" (was 3 before), during the dump to 7.7 he said that it is nothing in comparison with the next correction. So it seems that he thinks that the 2015-2017 bull market has ended. Elsewhere on the side he said he thinks 4 would last only a couple of months, would be strange for a largest scale bear market, the previous one was almost 2 years.

If the dumps end here, in his red circle, and we go up within a couple of months (which I hope), I do not understand why to say that the historic 3 has ended? Then rise to 19k would be just (3) of 3, and the current correction (4) of 3.

Is the reason ML says historic 3 has ended is because we hit, or even went below, 61.8 Fib? Anyway, his current count seems less logical than all his previous ideas, I still think he may adjust it.

regardless of what will happen and whether his is right or not, you got his opinion exactly backwards.
His opinion: wave 3 is 19.6K, 4 is what is going on now, later wave 5 at 50-100K.
what you are talking about as "nothing in comparison" is something that will come AFTER 5 at 50-100K.

bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2

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Activity: 28

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Quote from: Biodom on February 04, 2018, 12:08:19 PM

Yeah, why not? it is already at around Fib 61.8
If it goes down much lower, than it is a longer term bear market, not a 4.
If 7600 is A, then B is higher (to around 14K), then C (back to around 8k ), then much higher to wave 5.

I am really confused, ML said that the "historic 3" has ended, he even changed the name of the community to "witnesses of 5" (was 3 before), during the dump to 7.7 he said that it is nothing in comparison with the next correction. So it seems that he thinks that the 2015-2017 bull market has ended. Elsewhere on the side he said he thinks 4 would last only a couple of months, would be strange for a largest scale bear market, the previous one was almost 2 years.

If the dumps end here, in his red circle, and we go up within a couple of months (which I hope), I do not understand why to say that the historic 3 has ended? Then rise to 19k would be just (3) of 3, and the current correction (4) of 3.

Is the reason ML says historic 3 has ended is because we hit, or even went below, 61.8 Fib? Anyway, his current count seems less logical than all his previous ideas, I still think he may adjust it.

Biodom

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Activity: 3892

Merit: 4331

Yeah, why not? it is already at around Fib 61.8
If it goes down much lower, than it is a longer term bear market, not a 4.
If 7600 is A, then B is higher (to around 14K), then C (back to around 8k ), then much higher to wave 5.

podyx

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Quote from: Afrikoin on February 04, 2018, 02:21:37 AM

Looking at his chart,

1. wave 4 cannot be as shallow as he suggests

2. Likely suggesting sub $6k price

Why?

Afrikoin

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alan watts is all you need

Looking at his chart,

1. wave 4 cannot be as shallow as he suggests

2. Likely suggesting sub $6k price

explorer

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Quote from: exstasie on February 04, 2018, 01:05:05 AM

Quote from: sickpig on February 02, 2018, 08:44:06 AM

Quote from: somac. on February 02, 2018, 07:50:48 AM

I am very interested to hear what masterluc says next. I doesn't seem like the markets psychology can turn bullish again after this level of beating so soon. This could very well be another 2014/15

https://vk.com/wall-130254204_8317
https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/hg0S8xjw-historical-3-looks-to-be-completed/

According to google translate he thinks we are witnessing something similar to the correction of April 2013. Short term a rebound to 13-15k.
Once current correction will end next wave will bring us to 100k. Unfortunately google translate and my comprehension is not helping with determining the timing of this movement.

Excellent, thanks for catching this post. That's been my thinking as well....that we are in a correction similar to April 2013. If that fractal plays out, it means that the lows are probably already in with the Daily 200MA tag. But it would also mean the correction isn't over. If that's the case, I'd expect a bounce to the .618 or so before bleeding back down. Glad to see the master agrees!

Timing-wise, things are taking much longer than in 2013. To give some perspective: From top to bottom in April 2013 ($260 to $45), it took 3 days. By comparison, this leg down took 6 weeks.

$45 was a spike that disappeared pretty fast. We didn't begin recovering from April 2013 until $63 at the end of June. And 3 months after that, Silk Road and BOOM.

exstasie

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Quote from: sickpig on February 02, 2018, 08:44:06 AM

Quote from: somac. on February 02, 2018, 07:50:48 AM

I am very interested to hear what masterluc says next. I doesn't seem like the markets psychology can turn bullish again after this level of beating so soon. This could very well be another 2014/15

https://vk.com/wall-130254204_8317
https://ru.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/hg0S8xjw-historical-3-looks-to-be-completed/

According to google translate he thinks we are witnessing something similar to the correction of April 2013. Short term a rebound to 13-15k.
Once current correction will end next wave will bring us to 100k. Unfortunately google translate and my comprehension is not helping with determining the timing of this movement.

Excellent, thanks for catching this post. That's been my thinking as well....that we are in a correction similar to April 2013. If that fractal plays out, it means that the lows are probably already in with the Daily 200MA tag. But it would also mean the correction isn't over. If that's the case, I'd expect a bounce to the .618 or so before bleeding back down. Glad to see the master agrees!

Timing-wise, things are taking much longer than in 2013. To give some perspective: From top to bottom in April 2013 ($260 to $45), it took 3 days. By comparison, this leg down took 6 weeks.

Biodom

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Quote from: bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2 on February 03, 2018, 08:04:38 PM

Quote from: Biodom on February 03, 2018, 12:47:37 PM

Make a screen shot of that graph as ml is now (temporarily?) banned from at least russian version of tradingview.
He says that he does not know why exactly. Maybe some token service term violation or they don't like his ideas [speculative from him].

Re the question of graph interpretation, he posted in comments that he does not have enough info re the structure of 4, but I, personally, don't really care if it is a flat or a hump with 13-14 intermediate top, then retest higher low as long as we are for a longer term ride to 50-100K.

Yeah, he was very vague about 4. I am not even sure whether he means that there would be a bottom below 7k, before we go to 50-100k? One would think that being in wave 4 must (?) imply this, but this part is left blank on the picture.

If we just crawl up along the trendline from 7.7k, which I personally consider most likely, there would be no reason to call it 4? Or is this scenario also considered likely my ML? I wish I knew Tongue

We are deep in 4 already (at the minimum).
He indicated the lows of 4 with a red spot (so far on the money).
From his perspective the unknown is the structure of 4 as it transitions to 5.
You can look at 2013 (from 250-260 correction) for a possible structure, but it could be something else entirely.

My (not ml) macro take on this is as follows:

PTB made a decision to participate in crypto (Davos showed it), but too much crypto is in the hands of lower class (in their opinion) investors, so they try to remove crypto from weak hands into their hands using propaganda, old school people like Krugman and Roubini, denying credit card purchases, etc.

Who do you think rely more on credit cards to purchase btc? No need to even answer. Hence they manufactured a spike and a small (so far) crash. They did the same with the Internet, then loaded on gen 2 internet while denying lower 95% a chance to participate in earlier rounds where 90% of appreciation in FB was made, for example. Amazon was pushed from 100 to 5, then folks like Bill Miller came in and scooped it cheap, while CNBC was lamenting the "Internet crash".

bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2

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Activity: 28

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Quote from: Biodom on February 03, 2018, 12:47:37 PM

Make a screen shot of that graph as ml is now (temporarily?) banned from at least russian version of tradingview.
He says that he does not know why exactly. Maybe some token service term violation or they don't like his ideas [speculative from him].

Re the question of graph interpretation, he posted in comments that he does not have enough info re the structure of 4, but I, personally, don't really care if it is a flat or a hump with 13-14 intermediate top, then retest higher low as long as we are for a longer term ride to 50-100K.

Yeah, he was very vague about 4. I am not even sure whether he means that there would be a bottom below 7k, before we go to 50-100k? One would think that being in wave 4 must (?) imply this, but this part is left blank on the picture.

If we just crawl up along the trendline from 7.7k, which I personally consider most likely, there would be no reason to call it 4? Or is this scenario also considered likely my ML? I wish I knew Tongue

thefiniteidea

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"In Us We Trust"

Good traders are popular because they offer great trading advice... great traders are unheard of because they take their own advice.

bitcoin_is_here_to_stay_2

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Quote from: Enjel on February 03, 2018, 06:35:29 AM

Quote from: Globb0 on February 02, 2018, 07:07:29 AM

Quote from: Toxic2040 on February 01, 2018, 07:40:27 PM

Right on..thanks for the update.
This cracks me up.

Quote

Of note: Enky sold and vanga/ml called him out here: "Too bad, yet another tired poker player threw away his cards"

Busted.

I bet he feels really stupid now, selling out and potentially buying back in cheaper.

Burn

See, I don't get this. Enky wrote that a bearish scenario would involve a break below 7.5k USD. And right above that, BTC bounced massively.

But then he sold when it was like 8.5k - 9k, without waiting. Why didn't he just follow his own (correct) analysis?

I was also a bit surprised, but when it is your money, especially big sums, looks like he just wanted to protect his profits, not to maximize them. I am very surprised that he liquidated all his crypto holdings.

Topic: Analysis - page 46. (Read 941579 times)