Topic: Analysis - page 93. (Read 941579 times)
the big new mining farms were calculated for profitability at least a year ago if not longer. no sane investor pours out millions without calculating. price was around $400 a year ago. it was not clear if downtrend was really over by then. i assume they did not assume price would double in a year. imho mining is very profitable at the moment for some miners.
If carrots were durable and the farmer would expect rising carrotprices, why not?
I don't think miners necessarily expect bitcoin price to go up. That's just an assumption.
It would seem to me that many miners may hold on to their coins if the price fell below cost of production, waiting for the price to rise in order to sell them. Obviously they could not do this indefinitely, but its pretty obvious they are not going to just shut down their giant mining operation instantly because the price dipped below profit range.
You're correct: they're not going to shut down instantly on a dip below, because shutting down and spinning back up incurs cost in itself. Also maybe they have some kind of fixed volume deal with the electricity provider the negates some of the cost they would save on electricity when turning off.
But in the long run (weeks), they're just not going to keep mining at a loss. If it makes economic sense, they will shut down the gear. If they really do want bitcoins, they will then buy some on the market. But that's not the "miner" in them, that's the "speculator" in them.
In thought experiments that involve mining, I usually model the miners as always selling all their production. A miner who doesn't sell is simply modeled as a miner who sells plus a speculator who buys coins.
(sorry for the OT escapade)
It would seem to me that many miners may hold on to their coins if the price fell below cost of production, waiting for the price to rise in order to sell them. Obviously they could not do this indefinitely, but its pretty obvious they are not going to just shut down their giant mining operation instantly because the price dipped below profit range.
They are most likely people that believe in, at least, the medium term survival of bitcoin and should be aware of how much the market price can fluctuate in a relatively short period. They should also be well aware that when supply is limited, price is more likely to rise, and being miners they are a very big part of the supply.
They are most likely people that believe in, at least, the medium term survival of bitcoin and should be aware of how much the market price can fluctuate in a relatively short period. They should also be well aware that when supply is limited, price is more likely to rise, and being miners they are a very big part of the supply.
Industrial miners have invested enormous capital in order to generate coins. If they can temporarily buy coins for less than it costs to produce them, they rationally will.
Of course not all miners have exactly the same cost per coin. But in a highly competitive market, which this clearly is, that cost tends to converge (more efficient miners drive less efficient ones out of business).
Current cost of mining a coin is not < $600. If it were, while market price has been at least over 20% that for several months, more investment would pour into mining in order to reap that differential, driving up costs.
Miners are not simple enthusiasts anymore, and have not been for a while. They have reserves, and they determine how best to invest their surplus. This is a mature business.
Of course not all miners have exactly the same cost per coin. But in a highly competitive market, which this clearly is, that cost tends to converge (more efficient miners drive less efficient ones out of business).
Current cost of mining a coin is not < $600. If it were, while market price has been at least over 20% that for several months, more investment would pour into mining in order to reap that differential, driving up costs.
Miners are not simple enthusiasts anymore, and have not been for a while. They have reserves, and they determine how best to invest their surplus. This is a mature business.
I still don't understand why miners would buy coins instead of simply not mining.
Do carrot farmers buy carrots when the grocery store has a sale and sells them for less than the farmer can produce them for?
Industrial miners have invested enormous capital in order to generate coins. If they can temporarily buy coins for less than it costs to produce them, they rationally will.
Of course not all miners have exactly the same cost per coin. But in a highly competitive market, which this clearly is, that cost tends to converge (more efficient miners drive less efficient ones out of business).
Current cost of mining a coin is not < $600. If it were, while market price has been at least over 20% that for several months, more investment would pour into mining in order to reap that differential, driving up costs.
Miners are not simple enthusiasts anymore, and have not been for a while. They have reserves, and they determine how best to invest their surplus. This is a mature business.
Of course not all miners have exactly the same cost per coin. But in a highly competitive market, which this clearly is, that cost tends to converge (more efficient miners drive less efficient ones out of business).
Current cost of mining a coin is not < $600. If it were, while market price has been at least over 20% that for several months, more investment would pour into mining in order to reap that differential, driving up costs.
Miners are not simple enthusiasts anymore, and have not been for a while. They have reserves, and they determine how best to invest their surplus. This is a mature business.
I still don't understand why miners would buy coins instead of simply not mining.
Do carrot farmers buy carrots when the grocery store has a sale and sells them for less than the farmer can produce them for?
If carrots were durable and the farmer would expect rising carrotprices, why not?
A farmer that goes from farming to speculating is probably not that common. But in bitcoinland there might be a healthy % that do but who knows.
Sry for OT
Industrial miners have invested enormous capital in order to generate coins. If they can temporarily buy coins for less than it costs to produce them, they rationally will.
Of course not all miners have exactly the same cost per coin. But in a highly competitive market, which this clearly is, that cost tends to converge (more efficient miners drive less efficient ones out of business).
Current cost of mining a coin is not < $600. If it were, while market price has been at least over 20% that for several months, more investment would pour into mining in order to reap that differential, driving up costs.
Miners are not simple enthusiasts anymore, and have not been for a while. They have reserves, and they determine how best to invest their surplus. This is a mature business.
Of course not all miners have exactly the same cost per coin. But in a highly competitive market, which this clearly is, that cost tends to converge (more efficient miners drive less efficient ones out of business).
Current cost of mining a coin is not < $600. If it were, while market price has been at least over 20% that for several months, more investment would pour into mining in order to reap that differential, driving up costs.
Miners are not simple enthusiasts anymore, and have not been for a while. They have reserves, and they determine how best to invest their surplus. This is a mature business.
I still don't understand why miners would buy coins instead of simply not mining.
Do carrot farmers buy carrots when the grocery store has a sale and sells them for less than the farmer can produce them for?
If carrots were durable and the farmer would expect rising carrotprices, why not?
Industrial miners have invested enormous capital in order to generate coins. If they can temporarily buy coins for less than it costs to produce them, they rationally will.
Of course not all miners have exactly the same cost per coin. But in a highly competitive market, which this clearly is, that cost tends to converge (more efficient miners drive less efficient ones out of business).
Current cost of mining a coin is not < $600. If it were, while market price has been at least over 20% that for several months, more investment would pour into mining in order to reap that differential, driving up costs.
Miners are not simple enthusiasts anymore, and have not been for a while. They have reserves, and they determine how best to invest their surplus. This is a mature business.
Of course not all miners have exactly the same cost per coin. But in a highly competitive market, which this clearly is, that cost tends to converge (more efficient miners drive less efficient ones out of business).
Current cost of mining a coin is not < $600. If it were, while market price has been at least over 20% that for several months, more investment would pour into mining in order to reap that differential, driving up costs.
Miners are not simple enthusiasts anymore, and have not been for a while. They have reserves, and they determine how best to invest their surplus. This is a mature business.
I still don't understand why miners would buy coins instead of simply not mining.
Do carrot farmers buy carrots when the grocery store has a sale and sells them for less than the farmer can produce them for?
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Colletrix - Bridging the Physical and Virtual Worl
Industrial miners have invested enormous capital in order to generate coins. If they can temporarily buy coins for less than it costs to produce them, they rationally will.
Of course not all miners have exactly the same cost per coin. But in a highly competitive market, which this clearly is, that cost tends to converge (more efficient miners drive less efficient ones out of business).
Current cost of mining a coin is not < $600. If it were, while market price has been at least over 20% that for several months, more investment would pour into mining in order to reap that differential, driving up costs.
Miners are not simple enthusiasts anymore, and have not been for a while. They have reserves, and they determine how best to invest their surplus. This is a mature business.
Of course not all miners have exactly the same cost per coin. But in a highly competitive market, which this clearly is, that cost tends to converge (more efficient miners drive less efficient ones out of business).
Current cost of mining a coin is not < $600. If it were, while market price has been at least over 20% that for several months, more investment would pour into mining in order to reap that differential, driving up costs.
Miners are not simple enthusiasts anymore, and have not been for a while. They have reserves, and they determine how best to invest their surplus. This is a mature business.
If price were to drop below miner cost per coin, then miners would immediately start buying coins. So no, we are not going to the four, five or six hundreds.
Why would miners start buying coins? They would stop mining, is all we can be reasonably sure of.
If miners stop mining the whole system stops processing transactions.
Not all miners have the same "cost per coin". Hence they don't all stop at the same price, as RAJSALLIN correclty pointed out.
If price were to drop below miner cost per coin, then miners would immediately start buying coins. So no, we are not going to the four, five or six hundreds.
Why would miners start buying coins? They would stop mining, is all we can be reasonably sure of.
If miners stop mining the whole system stops processing transactions.
Of course all miners don't stop. It's an equilibrium.
If price were to drop below miner cost per coin, then miners would immediately start buying coins. So no, we are not going to the four, five or six hundreds.
Why would miners start buying coins? They would stop mining, is all we can be reasonably sure of.
If miners stop mining the whole system stops processing transactions.
If price were to drop below miner cost per coin, then miners would immediately start buying coins. So no, we are not going to the four, five or six hundreds.
Why would miners start buying coins? They would stop mining, is all we can be reasonably sure of.
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Activity: 660
Merit: 101
Colletrix - Bridging the Physical and Virtual Worl
If price were to drop below miner cost per coin, then miners would immediately start buying coins. So no, we are not going to the four, five or six hundreds.
From MasterLuc's Russian forum translated with google translate:
"In any case - we have a 3-year perfect cup from 154 to 1100+ - it's very, very bullish figure. My ass feels major ambush against the Bears."
Let's hope that the sentiment from Luc's ass is correct
"In any case - we have a 3-year perfect cup from 154 to 1100+ - it's very, very bullish figure. My ass feels major ambush against the Bears."
Let's hope that the sentiment from Luc's ass is correct
Thanks for the translation. When did he make this statement?
"blue no longer an option"
i'd say drop depending on the panic between $650 and 550
PS: luc come back!
From MasterLuc's Russian forum translated with google translate:
"In any case - we have a 3-year perfect cup from 154 to 1100+ - it's very, very bullish figure. My ass feels major ambush against the Bears."
Let's hope that the sentiment from Luc's ass is correct
"In any case - we have a 3-year perfect cup from 154 to 1100+ - it's very, very bullish figure. My ass feels major ambush against the Bears."
Let's hope that the sentiment from Luc's ass is correct
Thanks for the translation. When did he make this statement?
In short: it would suck donkey balls bigtime.
$550ish is the lowest point we should go if we want to keep the cup & handle instact. So if we indeed go below $780, the bulls should probably try to defend $550 to the death ;-| or otherwise look at a wound to the bull market that would take a year or more to heal.
$550ish is the lowest point we should go if we want to keep the cup & handle instact. So if we indeed go below $780, the bulls should probably try to defend $550 to the death ;-| or otherwise look at a wound to the bull market that would take a year or more to heal.
As long as I continue to have a well paying job and no need to cash out I can't help but get excited about having longer to accumulate.
what happened to the sentiment in this thread? 
From MasterLuc's Russian forum translated with google translate:
"In any case - we have a 3-year perfect cup from 154 to 1100+ - it's very, very bullish figure. My ass feels major ambush against the Bears."
Let's hope that the sentiment from Luc's ass is correct
Thanks for the translation. When did he make this statement?
what happened to the sentiment in this thread?
From MasterLuc's Russian forum translated with google translate:
"In any case - we have a 3-year perfect cup from 154 to 1100+ - it's very, very bullish figure. My ass feels major ambush against the Bears."
Let's hope that the sentiment from Luc's ass is correct
what happened to the sentiment in this thread?
If it fails like $300 failed in nov '15, or how $500 failed in aug '16, then I'm good to go.
$780 looks like strong support, the crazy panic selling didn't manage to take it down even though price went below it shortly.
$780 looks like strong support, the crazy panic selling didn't manage to take it down even though price went below it shortly.
There could be another attack on it and I'm not sure it would hold on second attack. A lot of people are close to panicking as is. Not everybody bought in 2012 or earlier, so that's a difference to the 2013 rallyes were noone had bought at those prices. Above $1200 things would look differently... but we're still in known territory where a lot has been going on already.
i too think it would not hold on a second attack.
If we go down to retest it at some point in the near future, it will break and next stop will be $540
than $465
Oh man that would be a massive drop, probably followed by a lot of FUD with the intention to push the price down even more.
I'm not sure if that would be goodfor BTC in the long run.Mmayne people would compare it with 2014 and first half 2015.
However I think I would try to buy as much BTC as possible if it should really happen.
In short: it would suck donkey balls bigtime.
$550ish is the lowest point we should go if we want to keep the cup & handle instact. So if we indeed go below $780, the bulls should probably try to defend $550 to the death ;-| or otherwise look at a wound to the bull market that would take a year or more to heal.
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