...
P.S. To avoid complicated maths, model this at the limit, i.e. "the cost of mining 1 BTC is slightly less than market price of 1 BTC, as per satoshi's prognostication.
P.P.S: Which would you do:
1. spend 10 dollars to make five dollars
2. spend "five hundred and twenty million dollars" to make a billion dollars
(chose one)
The cost of mining one BTC is not slightly less than the market price of one BTC. When Satoshi mentioned this he was pointing out something that I am alluding to as well however. Which is that miners will chase profit until it is not as profitable anymore. For example, if Bitcoin doubles in price my mining operation will all of a sudden make twice as much money, at such a point it does make sense for me to expand my operation so that more profit can be made. A good mining operation should expand and retract depending on the network conditions, an increased price is a very clear sign for most miners to expand, unless the difficulty is skyrocketing as well, which does however imply that other miners beat them to the expansion, which is pretty much what is happening now with the mining industry.
Assume: you are a perfect miner, mining at the ragged edge of profitability today.
Wat do nao?
@BlindMayorBitcorn: we'll figure it out as we go along, don't worry
I do not understand your question. I am actually a real world miner though, so I do have insights in how mining works today.
So, as an IRL miner, what are you doing? Expanding? With the difficulty pretty much doubling over the past 3 month, how is that working out for you?
Or are you 'retracting'? If so, how does one go about doing that? (assuming scale here, or do you mean you got a couple of S7s in the garage?)
@BlindMayorBitcorn: he thinks the price of BTC will magically grow overnight, to make up for losses caused by halvening. Because reasons.
I do not think it would grow over night, I think that the price will increase over time though, but that is the bet that I am making for myself of course. To answer your question, I am planning to expand, however this very much depends both on the price and what equipment will be available to me as a small independent miner in the near future. Deciding when to expand or contract as a miner can depend on many variables which are hard to predict, mining is a risky business I will not deny that, fortunately I have done well with my operation so far.
The halving will be a great shock to many miners I am sure however mining is a self balancing economy, I do not think it is something we should be overly concerned about in terms of the design chooses we make, unless we plan to change these incentive mechanism specifically. We should not care to much about the profitability of mining, miners will sort that out themselves, it is more important to make Bitcoin appealing to the masses, this is what would bring about more profit for the miners ultimately.