Will Segwit work as advertised without any flaws? Probably. But probably isn't good enough for those holding massive amounts of BTC. It is a particularly risky time to hold BTC before Segwit happens. If a big reduction in mining support happens, and there is a simultaneous mass panic, BTC will grind to a halt and drop like a rock before Segwit can save the day. I think we are starting to see some of this realization by BTC holders and today's drop in price. We'll watch over the next few days to see if it continues.
https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-cash-8mb-block-479469-clears-over-37000-transactions/uh, the people who pushed segwit are the ones holding massive amounts of btc and investment in btc related businesses.
Right, but the point I was trying to make is that a big change like Segwit adds risk. BCH is a hedge against that risk. BCH has already implemented their scaling solution and it has passed the stress test. BTC is still waiting for its scaling implementation and it hasn't been through real world stress tests.
If I held a large amount of BTC then I would also want to hold at least the same amount of BCH as protection in the event Segwit does not go well. If I saw that BCH had successfully implemented and tested its scaling solution then I would be inclined to buy even more BCH.
Regardless of your emotional feelings towards Segwit, it makes a lot of sense to protect yourself by at the very least holding an equal amount of BCH. These Pro-Segwit whales are hedging their bets. The ones who are dumping BCH are the peons at the bottom rung of the food chain and the whales are buying more than they held in the first place.
Bingo. I suppose that market forces and economic analyses are coming to the same conclusions... BTC is on thinner ice than people realize... Kore's mantra that "Bitcoin can't work with larger blocks" appears to have been quietly discredited by living proof: the vibrant BCC network and market. Finally, it now appears that the real Achilles' Heel of Bitcoin is its difficulty adjustment algorithm...
Personally, as a holder of BTC I am very concerned about how the Segwit2x drama resolves in the coming months... Right now I imagine that Kore will stubbornly keep their feet firmly planted and reject the Segwit2x hard fork, industry people will throw their hands up and react in one of several ways:
* Suck it up, and stay on Segwit1x Kore, forcing node operators updating their node software to Kore 0.15 with no blocksize increase
* Refuse to update node software and run Segwit2x, despite the apparent risks and lack of replay protection
* Start to slowly migrate to BCC behind the scenes, to avoid panic
* Rush out poorly designed and buggy Lightning implementations
* Hedge with altcoin investments
or
* Simply take over Kore development with some type of corporate coup or manufactured emergency
Of course, the biggest wildcard is the miners, who have the choice to switch to the BCC chain whenever they like. I believe that MANY of the miners will switch to BCC if Segwit2x is not honored, on their own accord, and due to the perceived second (or third) betrayal of agreements with them. At this point BTC could be in serious trouble, because the difficulty adjustment is so slow. Transactions could quickly become blocked for week or more, regardless of fees paid, due to the combination of the overloaded mempool and lack of hashing support. This type of event would indeed trigger a classic "rush for the exits", which would likely consume most of the value of BTC, and massively damage the public confidence in cryptos in general.
Nobody wants these scenarios to play out. So generally people will act to avoid them.