ANN: BITMAIN has Tested Its 28nm Bitcoin Mining Chip BM1382 - page 75.

mdude77

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Quote from: taipo on June 29, 2014, 07:09:04 AM

It started at around 25% from memory and climbed to 30% then back to 25% again. The point is though, if Bitmain are looking at high ROI, its going to take some guess work to figure out whether the last leap is going to be a repeat pattern in the next few months.

It's *always* guess work.

M

allcoinminer

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If we look at the difficulty change patterns during previous releases we can find that the difficulty jumps in the tune of 20%.
This 20% range is continued for the next two changes too but lower than the earlier.
After that phase a drop is seen in the increase and it came back to "normal" rate.
Now more companies are building and releasing more and more ASIC hardware so need to see what will be the reality.
But these are all not the things to panic but its the way to stability and should be seen as the building blocks of bitcoin system.

taipo

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It started at around 25% from memory and climbed to 30% then back to 25% again. The point is though, if Bitmain are looking at high ROI, its going to take some guess work to figure out whether the last leap is going to be a repeat pattern in the next few months.

mdude77

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Quote from: taipo on June 29, 2014, 03:51:03 AM

Bitcoin Difficulty: 16,818,461,371
Estimated Next Difficulty: 20,876,199,657 (+24.13%)
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Looking to be a trend.

And now with everyones BTC per day income taking a dump, the fervor should rise to drive people to buy more than one miner at least.

This same site said the last one was going to be 30%.

It's _way_ too early to make predictions like that for the next change.

M

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.7517267

taipo

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Quote from: lyth0s on June 29, 2014, 03:54:46 AM

I really think this one could go in either direction. Without a massive decrease in heat production and watt usage the decrease in bitcoins/day/Gh may actually bring people to buy less miners and just buy bitcoin directly instead. Especially for hobbyist and people that run miners in their homes as compared to a dedicated colocation site.

That would be the sensible thing to do.

But people will more likely keep buying miners while wallets have BTC in them turning every BTC not paid out on power, back to manufacturers in this little arms race. So in a sense, miners are paying for the manufacturing costs of the miner, then taking on the role of being a remote mining location for mining manufacturers, where the miner pays the power bill, deals with the heat, and turns the rest of their BTC back to the manufacturer to keep up with the climbing hash rate.

lyth0s

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Quote from: taipo on June 29, 2014, 03:51:03 AM

Quote from: taipo on June 29, 2014, 03:47:54 AM

Quote from: Collider on June 29, 2014, 03:08:40 AM

I mean there is not much uncertainty about the difficulty increase just 30 minutes before it, wasn´t meant in any way to be mean.

It could even have been that buyers bought slightly over market price, as the market price is only valid for very low volume.

It will not be an easy decision for them. Is this 25% the new norm for the next few months or is it an anomaly. That will take some guessing on their part, but will be a part of the decision making on any price designed for high ROI ( to use their words ).

Bitcoin Difficulty: 16,818,461,371
Estimated Next Difficulty: 20,876,199,657 (+24.13%)
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Looking to be a trend.

And now with everyones BTC per day income taking a dump, the fervor should rise to drive people to buy more than one miner at least.

I really think this one could go in either direction. Without a massive decrease in heat production and watt usage the decrease in bitcoins/day/Gh may actually bring people to buy less miners and just buy bitcoin directly instead. Especially for hobbyist and people that run miners in their homes as compared to a dedicated colocation site.

lyth0s

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Quote from: QuiveringGibbage on June 29, 2014, 03:48:09 AM

ok, so some other h/w have made ROI. but not like Ava batch 1. being the first asic h/w in the market those owner made a ton of coins. not just 1 or 2 btc.

Well I don't exactly recall what the price of a bitcoin was back when avalon first sold their batch #1. But roughly around the time BFL came out with their jalapeno's (order of months after avalon's release) bitcoins were about $90 each. So to compare the purchasing power an avalon would have to mine about 6+ bitcoins to have the same purchasing power as mining 1 bitcoin with a miner nowadays.

taipo

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Quote from: taipo on June 29, 2014, 03:47:54 AM

Quote from: Collider on June 29, 2014, 03:08:40 AM

I mean there is not much uncertainty about the difficulty increase just 30 minutes before it, wasn´t meant in any way to be mean.

It could even have been that buyers bought slightly over market price, as the market price is only valid for very low volume.

It will not be an easy decision for them. Is this 25% the new norm for the next few months or is it an anomaly. That will take some guessing on their part, but will be a part of the decision making on any price designed for high ROI ( to use their words ).

Bitcoin Difficulty: 16,818,461,371
Estimated Next Difficulty: 20,876,199,657 (+24.13%)
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Looking to be a trend.

And now with everyones BTC per day income taking a dump, the fervor should rise to drive people to buy more than one miner at least.

QuiveringGibbage

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ok, so some other h/w have made ROI. but not like Ava batch 1. being the first asic h/w in the market those owner made a ton of coins. not just 1 or 2 btc.

taipo

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Quote from: Collider on June 29, 2014, 03:08:40 AM

I mean there is not much uncertainty about the difficulty increase just 30 minutes before it, wasn´t meant in any way to be mean.

It could even have been that buyers bought slightly over market price, as the market price is only valid for very low volume.

It will not be an easy decision for them. Is this 25% the new norm for the next few months or is it an anomaly. That will take some guessing on their part, but will be a part of the decision making on any price designed for high ROI ( to use their words ).

lyth0s

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Quote from: QuiveringGibbage on June 29, 2014, 03:38:05 AM

Quote from: 64dimensions on June 28, 2014, 12:00:09 PM

Another S1 follow on product:

curious, on what you meant by "Another S1 follow on product:"?

correct me if I am wrong, but Avalon was the first to come to market with AISC mining h/w. They are also the one and only ASIC h/w manufacturer to to give it's batch 1 and 2 Avalon miners ROI, and than some.

QG

I'm not 100% sure what your last sentence means since techincally only Avalon could give Avalon miners that ROI. But if you meant hey are the only ASIC HW manufactures to have ROI >100% you'd be greatly mistaken. So far every ASIC miner i've bought has made over 100% ROI (they are well thought out purchases though), with the 1 exception of a recently purchased altcoin ASIC that is still working towards ROI.

Even with a late Antminer S1 that I bought for about 1.4 bitcoins, has now made me back 2.xx bitcoins.

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Quote from: 64dimensions on June 28, 2014, 12:00:09 PM

Another S1 follow on product:

curious, on what you meant by "Another S1 follow on product:"?

correct me if I am wrong, but Avalon was the first to come to market with AISC mining h/w. They are also the one and only ASIC h/w manufacturer to to give it's batch 1 and 2 Avalon miners ROI, and than some.

QG

1Neptune

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Quote from: lyth0s on June 29, 2014, 03:06:56 AM

Quote from: Collider on June 29, 2014, 03:03:29 AM

Quote from: lyth0s on June 29, 2014, 03:02:26 AM

Yeah they will definitely wait until the difficulty increase today, my guess is that is what they were waiting for. I'm betting this difficulty increase will be huge like 28% or almost 30%, which we haven't seen those kinds of numbers since December 2013. I am however happy that the didn't take "pre-orders" and then postpone for difficulty increases. I'm quite happy with my Antminer S1's and hope that the S3 will have a great $/GH and GH/w ratios like their first gen's did.

Waiting anxiously to hear how good the Antminer S3 prices are Cheesy

It is going to be pretty much 25%....

I dont know where you get your numbers from, but they are surely wrong.

Also, because of high demand the first batch of S3s should be overpriced, compared to the 2nd batch.

Uhhh... 25% is still huge? We haven't had a difficulty increase over 22.xx% since January 2013. I eyeballed 28%, which is pretty damn close to your stated 25%. Give me a break.

Well the diff increase hit: 24.93%

Collider

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I mean there is not much uncertainty about the difficulty increase just 30 minutes before it, wasn´t meant in any way to be mean.

It could even have been that buyers bought slightly over market price, as the market price is only valid for very low volume.

lyth0s

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Quote from: Collider on June 29, 2014, 03:03:29 AM

Quote from: lyth0s on June 29, 2014, 03:02:26 AM

Yeah they will definitely wait until the difficulty increase today, my guess is that is what they were waiting for. I'm betting this difficulty increase will be huge like 28% or almost 30%, which we haven't seen those kinds of numbers since December 2013. I am however happy that the didn't take "pre-orders" and then postpone for difficulty increases. I'm quite happy with my Antminer S1's and hope that the S3 will have a great $/GH and GH/w ratios like their first gen's did.

Waiting anxiously to hear how good the Antminer S3 prices are Cheesy

It is going to be pretty much 25%....

I dont know where you get your numbers from, but they are surely wrong.

Also, because of high demand the first batch of S3s should be overpriced, compared to the 2nd batch.

Uhhh... 25% is still huge? We haven't had a difficulty increase over 22.xx% since January 2013. I eyeballed 28%, which is pretty damn close to your stated 25%. Give me a break.

lyth0s

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Quote from: Collider on June 29, 2014, 03:01:52 AM

Price impacts from the auction should be minimal, as the every day volume is already 30k bitcoin.

Highly discounted rates are also unlikely as investors will have bought at around the current bitcoin price.

Well I highly doubt that the buyers in the auction will immediately dump it all on bitstamp, which may just be wishful thinking on my part? I expect that the winning bidders will be holding for a while, especially if they paid slightly higher or at market price (obv)

Collider

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Quote from: lyth0s on June 29, 2014, 03:02:26 AM

Yeah they will definitely wait until the difficulty increase today, my guess is that is what they were waiting for. I'm betting this difficulty increase will be huge like 28% or almost 30%, which we haven't seen those kinds of numbers since December 2013. I am however happy that the didn't take "pre-orders" and then postpone for difficulty increases. I'm quite happy with my Antminer S1's and hope that the S3 will have a great $/GH and GH/w ratios like their first gen's did.

Waiting anxiously to hear how good the Antminer S3 prices are Cheesy

It is going to be pretty much 25%....

I dont know where you get your numbers from, but they are surely wrong.

Also, because of high demand the first batch of S3s should be overpriced, compared to the 2nd batch.

lyth0s

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Yeah they will definitely wait until the difficulty increase today, my guess is that is what they were waiting for. I'm betting this difficulty increase will be huge like 28% or almost 30%, which we haven't seen those kinds of numbers since December 2013. I am however happy that the didn't take "pre-orders" and then postpone for difficulty increases. I'm quite happy with my Antminer S1's and hope that the S3 will have a great $/GH and GH/w ratios like their first gen's did.

Waiting anxiously to hear how good the Antminer S3 prices are Cheesy

Collider

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Price impacts from the auction should be minimal, as the every day volume is already 30k bitcoin.

Highly discounted rates are also unlikely as investors will have bought at around the current bitcoin price.

rograz

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Quote from: taipo on June 29, 2014, 02:32:12 AM

If they are working the price to match the difficulty, then they would probably be waiting for the next difficulty to roll over in about 30 minutes.

They could also be waiting for potential price impact from a certain auction that recently ended.

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