Just calculate it with only two informations:
1. There are about 8.7 Mio Factoids in existence plus 73k FCT's every month as payment for the federated server.
2. Every time somebody buys Entry Credits, Factoids are converted into EC's and out of the system --> "burned".
What would happen if there is a demand for 10 Mio Entries each month and the price of 1 FCT would be = 1 EC?
The supply of Factoids would be at zero after 8.7 Mio Entries (plus 73k).
Hi guys maybe i am wrong, but i have the feeling the arguments here present only 1/2 of the movie, that goes like this: if FCT is to cheap then FCT's will be burned quickly so price has to go up to prevent this. Wonderful story but let me tell you the second half of the movie with the big BUT and the but goes like this:
Imagine FCT price is in an equilibrium to Ec's price and let's say 1FCT=1.5$ and 1 EC= 0.005$ (
https://www.factom.com/entry-credits/). so 1FCT buys 300 EC's today. And the burn rate today is 300.000 Ec's a month which is at current rate 1000 FCT's per month.
The $ 0.005 is to make profit. It's not the conversion rate which is still $ 0.001 if I'm right.
Lets now say demand skyrockets it grows buy the factor of 1000 from 1000 FCT's /month to 1.000.000 Factoms a month (Astonishing 300 Mio EC's) and lets assume the price would rise by factor 1000 too from 1.5 to 1500$ a piece. So this is the first half of the movie everyone refers to.
300 Mio EC's would be $ 300,000 and a price where burned and new created Factoids per month would be equal would be at: $ 4.1
So, I agree: Wouldn't make sense that the price would skyrocket to $ 1500.
But in reality the movie doesn't stop here, because of the specifics of the factom construction. And this point now it goes: For the 300.000 Ec's that are needed you only need (300.000.000 Ec's *0.005$/each)/1500$ per Factom = 1.000 Factom per month
So the demand for entry credits exploded by factor 1000, but the demand stayed at 1000 Factoms/month as before. With such a low demand for FCT's price can not stay at 1500$ a piece and it falls back quickly.
It wouldn't even rise that irrational high with such a demand. Wouldn't make any sense.
And that is the reason that Factom can not really rise beyond its equilibrium price (besides speculation). One can not tell where that equilibrium price is, but once its reached it doesn't matter if demand for Ec's is a 1000 times higher or Dropboxlevel a 1 billion times higher the demand for Factoms never rises.
hope i made clear what i mean...
You draw a picture of a total weird scenario. As if the price would explode without good reason to $ 1500. And sure, it couldn't stay there. But if there would be really a demand for Entries like Dropbox has uploads, it would definitely shoot up at least to above $400.
This is the calculation:
1 bn per day, 30 bn each month: $ 30 Mio into Factom.
The equilibrium would be at $410
I don't know if that is a realistic scenario and even if that should be potentially possible, it won't happen any time soon. Maybe in years, not sure. But in general your theory, that the price of Factoids doesn't need to rise, even if the demand for Entry Credits explodes, is simply wrong. I mean, you even had the theory it could be and stay at a level where 1 FCT is equal to 1 EC.
The current situation is:
1 FCT = $ 1.45
That's enough for about 100 Mio Entries each month. So, it's true that there is a lot of room for an increasing demand without that the price needs to rise. But, what I believe about Factom is that it won't be about a way in the middle. I believe that it will be a huge success or not, without much scenarios between those both extremes. And if I should be right with that and if the success-scenario should realize, I'm pretty sure that a billion-demand each month is possible and likely. The reason why I believe that is: Factom is open for so many use-cases we can think of and maybe even more that we are unaware about, in all kinds of different areas, from private persons like you and me to big companies. Factom can help to reduce costs for potential customers, it can help to connect data of different companies etc. And we speak about "Big Data". If you look at the number of transactions of just one single bank has each day, or trades of exchanges or how much data is produced in laboratories for example (...) - it's unbelievable. And I like the cloud-service-example, even if it's a different use case, because cloud services also have all kinds of customers. From private persons to big companies.
And that is Factoms potential as well. Kim Kardashian can factomize her millions of selfies to prove it's really her, Hillary Clinton could promise to factomize her mails to avoid problems with the FBI, people can use it to hash testaments and other important documents, or the process of creating all kinds of arts. A country can use Factom for land title registry, all kinds of institutions could use it to secure important documents, a bank could use it to record transactions and all kind of data. It can be used to track and record the way of all kinds of products. It can be used for smart cities and so on. The potential is most likely bigger than we can even think about.
I don't say that I'm totally sure about Factoms future success. They could fail at one point. There could be a huge set-back like a hack or whatever, in worst-case with the result of a lack of trust in Factom. Or there could be a really big competitor who overtakes nearly the whole market, like Google or Facebook did it in their areas. But for now all signs I know of are very positive. And even if I can't know Factoms future I know how markets work. And markets always trade the future and very often they just trade a collective short-term-dynamic. I mean, Ethereum is still near to a 1 billion marketcap. Impossible to explain that with objectivity and a rational market. It's the result of hype and manipulation and my prediction is still that it will come down much more while a lot of ppl already say it's "cheap". The same is true for some others. In comparison to those projects, Factom is the best Investment I can think of in Crypto right now and for all aspects.